Cold Hard Look In Exile (Self Imposed)

[Schwks]

When your narrator last left you, he was leaving the realm of fantasy baseball entirely and feeling quite sorry for himself.



Weaning off of fantasy baseball has proven to be tough. While I turned over the reins of my slo draft, I kept my finger in the draft and, though I am paying for it, I am splitting the team with my friend. (more on this later)



I have done a 12 team, relatively shallow 12 team league for 6 years. Since the league is made up of a few close friends, and others that I do some business with, leaving that league was never an option. In the wake of leaving the NFBC, I felt all the more need to exert dominance in the home league. As such, even though I am not examining the Nick Hundleys and Yuniesky Betancorts of the world, I still have done much homework.



The slo draft partnership taught me that I could never do a partnership again. Here is some discussion of the team selected from slot 5:



1. Votto: the first three picks were mine. The two SSs and two 1b were picked ahead of me. I considered CarGo, but opted for safety, since I think Votto's baseline numbers are fairly safe in that lineup and that ballpark. Nothing has moved me off of my decision



2. McCutchen: I really believe in McCutch in '11. I felt that he would not be available at 3-5 and that he can turn into a 295 22 hr guy with 35-40 sbs and over 100 runs. I strongly considered Reyes...why? because I feel like the drafts this year go much more smoothly in 12 or 15 team format, when you have a SS in place. As a die hard Mets fan, though, I feel at this juncture that anything that can go wrong ...will.

McCutch was a slight overdraft, but I was targeting him.



3. Morneau: I was sitting on Youk, but he went at pick before mine. At this juncture, I wanted a guy who would hit 30 hrs with a plus avg. Morneau was the best player available, in my mind. I strongly considered Bautista...unlike other sources, I remember Bautista as a guy who was about to break out for Pitt and then had some injuries that broke him down for a bit. I think Bautista's HR/FB is unsustainable, but that he is a lock for 25 hrs and 100 rbis, with upside. Ultimately I went Morneau, because he is the better player



4. Weeks: This is where I gave up control of the team. I was looking Weeks and Beltre. I would have gone Beltre here because I like 2b depth a lot this year. That said, I do like Weeks this year, especially if new mgr runs him more.



5.J Johnson: This is where I had no say on team. I do not like JJ this year at all. Shoulder injuries NEVER go away. Also, Id have been looking for another hitting piece.



6. Granderson: Even though I was not making picks, my friend knew I liked Grandy. I think many people are deceived and dont realize that he only had 3/4s the ABs in 2010. Also, I see a slight reversion in his avg into 260 range. .260 28 80 15 is where I project him...numbers that could be achieved by Werth taken 2 rds earlier

I have always liked the way the ball jumps off of Grandy's bat.



7. Latos: Ugh. When I discount Latos for a reversion, and then combine him with being on team with no offense, and an innings jump risk, I would never make this kind of investment, especially witht he question marks surrounding JJ, our first SP



8 D Young: I was back in on decision making process here. I really like this pick. Guys who went in the same part of the rd were Hunter, Sandoval, Kendrick. D Young still has 2d OF potential with room to grow and not a huge downside in a very good lineup.



9 Beckham: This was a pick that I forced upon my partner. I felt that he was best MI bat available with potential to be a force. Obviously as we saw in 2010, he has significant downside, and his value will be impacted by where he bats in a stacked lineup.



10. Broxton: I encouraged a closer here. My partner made the choice of closers. The thought was that top tier guys were long gone. LAD profiles with good sp and eh hitting, the kind of combo that can garner a ton of saves. Obviously this pick has serious implosion potential



11. Gio Gonzalez: My pick here would have been Colby Lewis. I like Gio, but again, I dont like how he fits in with our other question marks



12 Franklin: This was my pick. I felt with the uncertainties surrounding closers, it would be good to get a guy locked into a job. This was a mistake pick. If I had to do it over, Id have gone with 4-5 closers in waiting later



13 Suzuki: I really like this pick. Wieters went in 10th...I would say that there are even odds that Suzuki outperforms Wieters. To me Suzuki is a soft spot in drafts this year...he is the last of the second tier of C's that is going 2-3 rds later then his colleagues on the tier.



14 Andres Torres: Most pundits say he cant repeat. I pushed this pick, because he will bat leadoff and gets some steals without completely giving no power. Someone took Neil Walker at top of rd, which I think is another real soft spot.



15 Bumgarner: You guessed it, not my pick. Again, I felt we needed an established arm in light of the makeup of our staff. SOmeone took Magglio after us. I am not a fan of going aging vets, but his inj last year was a broken ankle and his numbers preinjury showed great peripheral support



16 Uribe: This was my pick. I was pushing for Uribe 4 rds earlier. He gives a solid amount of power and has positional flexibility. I really think Uribe is undervalued this year. Raburn was taken two picks later and I also think that is a nice place to get him



17 Floyd: By this time, I was so desperate for one established arm, I really pushed for Floyd.



18 Dom Brown: Brown does not fit the profile of guys that I usually like. For rookie types, I like to see some major league success and/or a guarranteed job. Brown has neither. I consented because I felt we needed some hitting upside.



19 Moreland: This was my pick and before the Napoli acquisition. To me Moreland profiled equal or better to G Sanchez, Smoak, I Davis. Obviously the Napoli thing potentially hurts, but I always feel like talent wins out. Zambrano went with next pick, and I think after Aug-Sept, that was a nice pick



20 Nyjer Morgan: This pick seemed solid at the time. In retrospect, I usually never draft a Judy. If we are able to spot start him (eg if Brown gets some run) he could be an asset



21-22 Wade Davis and Porcello: I think that both of these pitchers were solid picks. Unfortunately both only exacerbate our team's problem with no proven sps



Why never do a partner again? I view a fantasy partnership like a marriage. There is the kind where you meet in college, and grow up together, and mold around each other. Then there is the meet later in life where each side is fully formed person and each has own ideas, likes, hobbies.



If you and your partner have been going at it together for a long time, you become sympatico. If you have been at this for a number of years with some success of your own...it is very hard to agree with someone else on strategy and player evaluation.



Fortunately, this is a small money league, wherein the results are not that big of a deal as compared to the value as prep work.



Most importantly, I am going to take it easy this year. But I know that I will be back next year.

[CC's Desperados]

I used this line when I ended my partnership in early 2007:



Fantasy baseball is a selfish game where an owner has the need to make all the decisions. If you give part of the reigns, you feel as though you aren't running your race.

[Schwks]

Cape Cod:



First Id like to say, I read your chat the other night. It was the best one ever and one of the best post thread to ever come across these boards. Is it because Cape Cod is an expert that has no failings and whose word is gospel?



No it is because there has been a lot of thought and research done clearly. And Cape Cod has the audacity to give his honest opinions, even in the face of knowing that these published opinions could drive up the price of players he likes, due to his notoriety.



To me this is the equivalent of Alexander Hamilton at Weehawken shooting in the air, while Aaron Burr was taking aim.



Second, I agree about partnerships. My partner loved Ryan Howard and encouraged me to take him at 1-5. I do not value Howard highly this year. But how do you mend those chasms? Both of you have had success at some level, to some degree. THere is no arithmatic formula. I am glad I tested the partnership in a $125 league....should marriage have a similar test?

[King of Queens]

Damn partnerships!

[CC's Desperados]

Originally posted by Schwks:

Cape Cod:



First Id like to say, I read your chat the other night. It was the best one ever and one of the best post thread to ever come across these boards. Is it because Cape Cod is an expert that has no failings and whose word is gospel?



No it is because there has been a lot of thought and research done clearly. And Cape Cod has the audacity to give his honest opinions, even in the face of knowing that these published opinions could drive up the price of players he likes, due to his notoriety.



To me this is the equivalent of Alexander Hamilton at Weehawken shooting in the air, while Aaron Burr was taking aim.



Second, I agree about partnerships. My partner loved Ryan Howard and encouraged me to take him at 1-5. I do not value Howard highly this year. But how do you mend those chasms? Both of you have had success at some level, to some degree. THere is no arithmatic formula. I am glad I tested the partnership in a $125 league....should marriage have a similar test? You needed to have the upper hand in the relationship sell him that Howard would be there in round two in a 12 team league knowing full well the chances were thin. If you missed on him, there was a reasonable drop down at the first base position.



Thanks for reply to my chat.



[ February 18, 2011, 12:11 PM: Message edited by: CC's Desperados ]

[headhunters]

carefull shawn- those couple of sentences you just wrote reveal quite a bit.

[CC's Desperados]

Originally posted by headhunters:

carefull shawn- those couple of sentences you just wrote reveal quite a bit. Maybe I'm looking for a slap shot from the blue line.

[Schwks]

Someone asked privately, who I ended up with at 3b. This was another area of contention between myself and my partner. We took Infante @ 24th rd. My take on Infante is that he will have a full season of ABs, which could push up some of his counting numbers a bit. I did not love some of his peripherals, but we did not have a lot of choice.



I felt that if we backed up Infante with Freese, we could still stand a decent chance of salvaging some combined production at 3b. To me Freese was showing some nice things early on last year before he hurt his ankle, and he will be likely batting behind Pujols, Holliday Rasmus. I could easily see him becoming a nice fantasy piece.



My partner and I went back and forth. He liked Morel. I argued that he was not even a lock to make the team. I lost out and my partner picked Morel. I do not see Morel being a contributor in 2011, or ever in my mind. In fact, I have always been a big VIciedo guy.



It is interesting to see how even a decision in the mid-late 20 something rds is very important, especially in a 15 team league.