Kudo’s especially to Gene. Sorry I missed the honor of actually sitting next to you at the draft, but you certainly made your presence known. Keep getting better!
As to my team and strategy, I wanted to make sure of my power and base for batting average, make sure I left with two if not three solid sources of speed while avoiding the Judy’s, get enough K’s (ERA and WHIP seems to follow) and get at least two closers. Nothing new, but there were several paradigm shifts in my mentality towards drafting that I will elaborate on further later.
I focused, probably way too much, on my first four picks. Drafting from the 7-spot, there was a chance that a Cabrera (before the draft I thought it was a slim possibility), Cargo (slimmer) or Tulo (slimmest) would fall too me. Not really counting on it, I thought I would have my choice of at least two of Crawford, Braun, or Longoria. Dave Potts busted my hopes of landing Longoria in what I think is a thin third base pool this year by taking him fifth (the draft actually started out Cabrera, Pujols, and Hanley, so for one brief moment I saw Dave’s eyes light up thinking he might have a chance at Tulo with the fifth pick…it was not to be
). Cargo went sixth, so I chose Braun. I have been concerned about him as his underlying stats have been going the wrong way the last couple of years. I think however the change in management will help reverse that. I am still a Shandler-ite, but I was not swayed by Ron’s high opinion of Braun as he is equally high on Crawford. My only concern with Crawford is his value over Braun is in stolen bases. Crawford may never hit twenty HR (Fenway is not kind to left-handed hitters) and I expect Braun to get back to the mid-30’s in HR this year, so comparing one is going to wrack up SB and the other HR. However, Crawford batting third with Adrian Gonzalez and Kevin Youkilis hitting behind him may put a damper on those SB. Don’t get me wrong, Crawford would be an AWESOME pick, but I went Braun.First round picks are easy because the worst that you can do is get your choice of every player in baseball but fourteen. Short of picking a pitcher in the first round, the second pick is really where you really begin to set the tone for your draft/team. I have had a man-crush on Kevin Youkilis (fantasy baseball-wise at least) for years. To boot, this year he will get third base eligibility, so I could satisfy my fear of not selecting an adequate player at that position, or I could use him for my big-bopping first baseman all year. I like options. However, in the later drafts that I had ADP’s on, Youk had been moving up the board to the first third of the second round, so I felt he would have to slip a few picks for me to have a chance, leaving me with the decision of whether or to pick a Texas outfielder (outside chance at Hamilton or pretty reliable chance at Cruz), a middle infielder (Reyes, Pedroia, or Kinsler though I really did not think I would risk Kinsler) or Zimmerman. As it turns out, the point was moot as Youkilis was available and I snagged him, pleasant thoughts and good wishes flowing in my mind to all those kind people who drafted before me. As an aside, Clum and I were at the sports book in Caesars Palace. Their futures had Youk at the highest odds of leading baseball in home runs (150:1). Some will say “Why so low?” but if Bautista could do it, Youk has a chance, too. I put $50 on it.
One of my (many) problems has been I tend to overly focus on players. In order to increase my flexibility and take off the blinders a bit, this year, I limited myself to only three players I just wanted to have. Youk was one, another was my third round pick, Brian McCann. This is also a second strategy change for me as I never pick catchers this early. Mauer is never going to be on my team as he always goes higher to me than his value/risk seems to warrant. I am very high on Martinez, especially given he will not be a full-time catcher this year. Posey is ranked higher by most than me, but that is my “Show-me/Show-me” personality coming out. McCann appeals to me for several reasons. One, he is a Brave and I watch more Braves games than any other, so there is a “fun” factor that entered into an equation where all else is essentially equal. Second, there are only a handful of catchers who will hit in the 3-4-5 slots in the line-up and McCann is one of them. Third, his eye-problems of the last two years seem to be behind him, so I expect his BA to rise. Martinez would arguably have been a better choice here, but not by much. I will go with the younger McCann who I think will exceed Martinez’s power output, and steal four or five bases. But taking a catcher that high means I left sixteen other players on the table, including some key pitchers. Opportunity cost is a beast.
Pitching was going pretty fast here. I seriously considered taking a starter in the fourth round, but I wanted some more offense. Shortstop appears pretty thing this year at the top and Alexei Ramirez has been getting a lot of love by moving up the boards recently. I had a feeling I would miss out on him if I did not take him here. Having just taken a catcher primarily in a position scarcity mode in Round Three, I opted out in this round and took Andre Ethier/Either. Though I have always been a huge fan of Ethier, he was not necessarily targeted. As a matter of fact, I think it was here that Rick Thomas and Mark Srebro gave me some good-natured table talk about not grabbing Heyward. As a Braves fan, Heyward is going to be a BEAST…someday. He is already pretty awesome, and that year could be this year. He is certainly going to out-distance Ethier in steals, but Heyward is projected to hit sixth this year, I do not think the Braves will move him to bat third when Chipper gets hurt, he needs to improve his contact rate, and he has to solve the low and low-outside pitches which caused him to hit so many groundballs. Ethier will bat third for the Dodgers and will match if not exceed Heyward in the other counting stats as well as have a higher batting average. Besides, if I took Braves back-to-back, I would be labeled a “Homer”.
By this time several teams were already on their second starter. This was the round that I thought I would get a chance at Hanson, Haren, or Oswalt. Hanson has been climbing the boards, so he was gone as was Haren. I “settled” on Oswalt. He will not get 200 K’s though he got close last year, but he is a solid 175. He should continue to exhibit great control with an excellent ground-ball rate (which may not be such a good thing if too many balls head toward Castillo). He may now be a bit of a second-tier ace, but I am happy with the pick.
Though not necessarily one of my targets, Shane Victorino was available in Round Six. I have always liked him as a fantasy player even though he had a down-year last year, batting average wise. Being the victim of an unlucky hit rate, I think this year he will be back to his .285-ish ways this year. My only real concern is where Philly will hit him with Utley out. It may be easier for Charlie Sheen to get my daughters phone number from me than it is for me to get comfortable with where Victorino will bat. They have used him at lead-off and fifth recently. They have batted Rollins third sometimes but mostly using Ibanez there recently. If Rollins does hit third, Victorino should lead-off. With Polanco hurting a bit, we could even start the season Rollins, Victorino, Ibanez, Howard. In that I think his power surge was an anomaly last year, I would prefer him hitting second or lead-off, but Charlie Manuel never asks my opinion.
In the seventh round, I thought it was time to start a closer run or at least get folks thinking about closers. I chose Brian Wilson knowing I need to get Romo later just in case. He is a bit wild for my tastes, but he has been pretty consistent and good. It helps being a ground ball pitcher who throws smoke. Closers starting dropping pretty fast after this pick.
When you (figuratively speaking) look down the table at Srebo, Thomas, and Gene McCaffrey picking directly ahead of you on even number rounds, you know at least once you are gonna get your planned picks picked. I needed a good second starter and with three picks to go, I had Brett Anderson and Dan Hudson in the que. It was not to be as this was certainly one of the times that Mark and Rick got the best of me. Oh well, I guess that is what happens when you swim with sharks. I picked Shaun Marcum and this is my least favorite pick of the draft. I do not think that Marcum is going to miss much if any time, and I do think he CAN repeat his excellent 2010 campaign now that he is two full years removed from TJS. But he is a fly-ball pitcher and he gets his K’s without blazing heat. He and Ted Lilly are essentially the same pitcher though Lilly has better control. I also do not like the fact that Marcum is a fly-ball pitcher, even though Miller Park seems to suppress LH power.
I was not going to get four pitchers in the top 10 rounds, but lacking a better second pitcher and with so many teams having co-aces, I decided to exhibit my new found flexibility and chose Wandy Rodriguez as my third pitcher. Wandy has had it together now for about three years. He will walk a batter, but is not what you would call wild. I like this pick not because I think Houston will win that many games, but because Wandy should be prime trade meat to a contender. He should be able to succeed anywhere given he is not an extreme anything pitcher, but he does tend to get ground balls. While I do not have any 200k locks, I now have three that promise 175+ strikeouts.
A point about my fixation on ground balls. Ground balls do not roll to the outfield and jump fences. Ground balls typically become at least one out if not two and the ground balls that are not outs typically do not hurt you as much as those nasty fly balls that become souvenirs. Therefore, I gravitate towards ground ball pitchers (with heat, preferably) when I can.
The opportunity cost of picking Wandy is now I have reached the 10th round and I have no middle infielders. The really desirable shortstops kind of left the station when Stephen Drew was picked, so I nabbed the best second baseman I thought was available in Aaron Hill. Batting fifth in Toronto is not a bad thing, and while I do not expect 2009 (though it would be sweeeeet), I also do not expect the 2010 batting average. It would have been better if Hill was my second man in the middle, but by and large this is a very solid pick for the 144th player off the board.
Coming out of the break, there was one (in my mind at least) second tier closer left. I thought it would be great to snag him and put a little scarcity on the board. The owners in draft spots two through five already had one closer and I did not think they were going to jump closer again so soon. I was hoping that Jason Gill at draft spot #1 would wait a little longer, but it was not to be. Jason took Putz and I was going to be flexible again. Rather than force one of the third tier closers, I decided to go away from my historical trends and grab a second catcher. Perhaps I should have gone MI there, but there was only one other catcher left that will probably hit in one of the money spots. I chose Miguel Montero. He wasn’t quite the same after the injury last year, but I think he is . I think he can hit .275+ again especially if he gets his contact rate back and he hits line drives. Out of the fifth spot. In Arizona. With pretty good power. I now feel I have two catchers that the rest of my team will not have to carry. It remains to be seen what the cost will be for that privilege, however.
Now I am ok with taking my second closer. At value, I selected Joel Hanrahan. Like most third tier closers, he is far from a sure thing. He does not play on a team that will win 80+ ballgames and he has competition, though Meek has been lit up. Still, anyone who can strike out 100 batters in 70 innings is worth a flyer.
Now I come to my third and final got-to-have. So got-to-have that I have him on all three of my teams. I would not normally be looking outfield with a start of Braun/Ethier/Victorinio. Despite that and as another swing from my historical trend, I chose Dexter Fowler as my fourth outfielder (and second speed guy). No one has ever questioned his speed, but he has nearly league average power. At 25 he is still growing. The Rockies are trying to separate the wheat from the chaff and have gotten rid of several players, so Fowler should be the uncontested full-time lead off man. He should get at least the bare minimum .350 OBA and may get more. More means 40+ stolen bases and he has enough power to hit 10 homeruns. We will see.
Up until now I have avoided not only AL East pitchers, but AL pitchers as a whole. Now I bust that. I told the table I could not believe I was doing this, but I really do not think taking James Shields is a bad thing. I was hesitant because I was burned by last year’s results. I know the results were due to some bad luck (35% hit rate and 68% strand rate), but I was still skittish. However, Shields is a top arm with good control. The division hurts his value even though he gives me another 175+ strikeout arm. An ERA below 4.00 would be nice, too. I am hoping for something closer to 2007 than 2010.
At this point I, and I think pretty much everyone else, is focusing on filling the obvious holes in the roster. With two closers, two catchers, four outfielders and four (solid if not spectacular) starters, I obviously have recognized the cost of getting the extra catcher and outfielder I wanted. I am short in the middle and on the corner. With my fifteenth and sixteenth picks, I go Chris Johnson and Jhonny Peralta. In the previous drafts, Johnson has gone both earlier and later. At this time, however, he is to me the best corner available. He will be a full timer with better than average power. I do not imagine he will hit for the average he had last year and may even be a drag on my team BA, though he hits line-drives, so he should not be such a huge problem there.
I am very high on Jhonny this year. Moving to Detroit, which favors RH hitters, and away from Cleveland, hugely unfavorable to RH hitters, with an improving power profile (maybe back to 2007 if not 2008 levels) with more line-drives (his rate has always been good) and still in his late 20’s, he to me is a nice “sleeper” that should improve on batting average as well. If you project (just for you Dan) out his second half from last year, Peralta could crack 20+ HR with career high RBI’s. And he gives me some positional flexibility (SS/3B).
Breaking my mold for at least the third time in the draft, I decided to gamble on a third closer. Expected to start the year on the DL, but throwing again is Frank Francisco. I expect Francisco to close very soon in Toronto, so he will give me the option to go three closers some weeks or at least gives me depth is Meek overtakes Hanrahan.
In the eighteenth round, I went back to pitching. Ervin Santana is not missing the bats like he did in 2008, but he still had a pretty good year last year and there is no reason to expect he can’t do as well this year. My biggest concern is he has had trouble staying healthy enough to put back-to-back 200 inning years. He is in the American league (not good), but at least he pitching in a decent pitchers park. If healthy, I can expect about 150 to 175 strike-outs from him.
With Johnson, Hill, and Peralta potential BA drains, I drafted James Loney as my corner man. He had a bad second half, but historically you can count on Loney to play and get you good batting average. His lack of power does not concern me as I have a few power studs and no Judy’s as of yet.
For the twentieth round, I put my hopes in the hands of Dave Duncan and Kyle McClellan. I do not worry too much about spring training, but like everyone else I am looking for this year’s Jaimie Garcia. Why not go to the puppet-master that made the orginal. McClellan actually profiles very closely with Garcia (ground baller with good power) with a little better control.
Now the cost of my strategy comes to roost as I need a middle, and outfielder and my utility. We were getting down a bit on the list of available players, especially those with full time jobs. In this case, I hoped to get a little more speed and chose Ryan Theroit. He has been batting lead-off for the Cardinal’s and as long as Albert is hitting behind you that is not bad. He will need to get back north of .350 OBA to hold it and it would be nice if he got more than 20 stolen bases this year. Real nice. A BA risk, he at least gives me some flexibility.
Getting no love this year is Scott Rolen. Yes, I know he is 35. Yes, I know he faded again last year. Still, he is hitting fourth for the Reds, plays half his games at Great American, and still hits for average. I will take him for half year stats and replace him.
My last pick was going to be my sixth outfielder originally. David DeJesus doesn’t really help you anywhere too much or hurt you anywhere too much. He may score a few more runs batting second, but this is an upgrade area.
I finish the tail-end of the draft with my biggest mistake. The player I took, Carlos Carrasco (24th), is not bad and either he, Homer Bailey (25th) or Chris Narveson (26th) could be nice as a seventh starter. What is bad is who I didn’t take. With Brian Wilson as my stud closer, I needed to get Sergio Romo as a handcuff. I thought Romo would come back to me, but Jason Santucci made sure he didn’t. I hope Wilson is back soon and the mistake is short lived. I picked Jeff Francoeur (27th) because, as bad as his BA is, he is expected to play and bat fourth for the Royals. I hope I need him very little and for a very short period of time. I also took Orlando Hudson for MI depth and because he is also a full-timer projected to bat third for San Diego. I may be the only person to draft Brandon Inge. He has no BA, hits in a crappy line-up spot, and we get no points for defense. Other than that, he is fine. I may also be the first person, therefore, to drop him. My last pick was Brandon Allen. Given the track record Xavier Nady has, I am hoping Allen gets enough of a gig to make it worth my while.
There it is. There are certainly some questions to the tail-end of my rotation, I may have to scramble a bit for K’s, I will have to make sure I get steals from my best sources, my closers will have to get fully healthy, and I will have to watch my BA just a bit. Nothing to it. All in all, a good draft that has left me with a nicely balanced team. No real glaring holes (feel free to disagree) and I hope to give my league mates a real run for the money.
[ March 28, 2011, 02:53 PM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]
