Average Draft Positions

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Sat Mar 26, 2005 5:54 pm

I had a chance to go through the first few rounds of each league today--some real shockers! In any event, here are the top 30 players in terms of average draft position:

Player

Average draft position

Earliest draft position

Latest draft position

1. Alex Rodriguez 1.95-1-4

2. Carlos Beltran 2.50-1-4

3. Albert Pujols 2.65-1-4

4. Vladimir Guerrero 3.35-2-6

5. Miguel Tejada 5.65-3-8

6. Bobby Abreu 7.10-5-11

7. Johan Santana 7.30-2-11

8. Todd Helton 9.10-6-13

9. Alfonso Soriano 9.40-6-13

10. Carl Crawford 9.60-5-13

11. Randy Johnson 10.60-4-15

12. Manny Ramirez 10.70-6-18

13. Ichiro Suzuki 14.10-9-21

14. Jason Schmidt 16.85-10-23

15. Mark Teixeira 17.45-11-33

16. Scott Rolen 18.30-13-27

17. Derek Jeter 19.45-13-28

18. Adrian Beltre 19.50-11-27

19. Miguel Cabrera 21.30-15-34

20. David Ortiz 22.50-15-37

21. Jim Thome 24.75-13-39

22. Aramis Ramirez 25.35-13-37

23. Nomar Garciaparra 26.65-16-41

24. Gary Sheffield 27.00-16-41

25. Pedro Martinez 27.05-12-48

26. Juan Pierre 27.15-15-45

27. Ben Sheets 27.85-9-44

28. Jimmy Rollins 31.00-19-45

29. Michael Young 32.50-21-45

30. Aubrey Huff 32.50-24-51

~40. Barry Bonds 38.10-15-88

There were some real surprises as well in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. These players were all taken at least 10 picks before they were taken in any other league:

Corey Patterson 18th overall in Chi-1

Rafael Furcal 20th overall in NY-7

Jim Edmonds 22nd overall in LV-5

Magglio Ordonez 29th overall in LV-6

Rogers Clemens 39th overall in LV-5

John Smoltz 32nd overall in NY-1

Sean Casey 33rd overall in LV-1

Vernon Wells 36th overall in Chi-3

Shawn Green 37th overall in NY-4

David Wright 38th overall in NY-7

Justin Morneau 40th overall in LV-1

Also of note, 11 players were taken in the first round in all 20 drafts: A-Rod, Beltran, Pujols, Vlad, Tejada, Abreu, Santana, Helton, Soriano, Crawford, and Unit. Manny Ramirez was taken in the first round in every league except Las Vegas 9, and Ichiro was a late first rounder in 15 out of 20 leagues. After those 13 players, there was tremendous variance in terms of who was drafted and where.

I'm sure there will be some official draft list that comes out soon, but this should tide everyone over for a few days. Enjoy!

JerseyPaul · Post by **JerseyPaul** » Sat Mar 26, 2005 6:25 pm

Nice job, KoQ. Who says draft position doesn't matter

After the consensus 13 first rounders, I'm certainly not surprised that there was wide divergence. Not only do picks 14 and 15 get leftovers, but they can't bypass guys they are high on and hope to get them next round (round 3). Next round is a lifetime away.

We all have slightly different players we like a lot, like A. Ramirez, Rollins, Sheffield, Jeter, etc. The end of the round guys take the 2 they like the most knowing that the others will be gone. For example, I like Aramis a lot and I knew his ADP was mid to late 2nd round. Yet if I wanted him, I had to take him at the 1.15, 2.1 turn. My preference would have been Teixeira, but he was grabbed at 1.12.

There were 2 guys with late ADPs that I did gamble would drop and I got them for excellent value (IMO). Hafner at the 5/6 turn and Mike Sweeney at the 11/12 turn was my plan all along and they fell. Of course one man's value play is another man's ... "way too early, dude".

Goggles Pisano · Post by **Goggles Pisano** » Sat Mar 26, 2005 6:25 pm

I am a huge Yankees fan but c'mon Derek Jeter with the 13th pick?? Hard to justify that one even if he matches his career year.

JerseyPaul · Post by **JerseyPaul** » Sat Mar 26, 2005 6:34 pm

Originally posted by Goggles Pisano:

I am a huge Yankees fan but c'mon Derek Jeter with the 13th pick?? Hard to justify that one even if he matches his career year. If you like Tejada in the 1st round, Jeter is sitting there with only about a buck less value, by my numbers. Tejada will get 10 or 11 more HRs but Jeter will get 15 more SBs. Tejada will drive in 30 more runs, but will hit for about 8 points less than Jeter. Bottom line, if a five is okay for Tejada, 13-15 looks okay for Jeter. I got him at the 1.15/2.1 turn.

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Sun Mar 27, 2005 1:26 am

By my numbers, Jeter should have been a late 1st or early 2nd round pick. Exactly as JP indicated, if you were picking in the 13/14/15 slot, you almost had to grab a guy like this if he was available to you.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Sun Mar 27, 2005 2:13 am

KING great job . In the ultimate i have the 14th pick. By these projections my picks should be 14 schimdt and 17 jeter. I took schimdt and cabrera 19 , pretty close. I AGREE with googles, wouldnt think of jeter here. Rather have the young cabrera and his monster numbers at 21 years old and grab a gullien or a berroa later. Oh thats exactly what i did berroa round 13.Im not saying some of these guys are jeter , but they will closer than you think.

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Sun Mar 27, 2005 2:32 am

What makes Jeter so valuable (and the clear #2 shortstop) is that he helps you in all 5 categories. As the Yankees leadoff man, he could lead the majors in runs scored. A .300 average is a near certainty, as are 15 HRs and steals. Upside of 20-25 HRs and SBs. The Berroas and Guillens of the world will only help you in 2 or 3 categories -- and may even hurt you.

By the way, I would have loved to grab Cabrera with my 2nd round pick (#26). However, he was taken before I had an opportunity to grab him. In 16 leagues he went 25th or higher, so obviously a lot of people are high on him.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Sun Mar 27, 2005 2:50 am

King i dont no about that . I HONESTLY wouldnt have taken jeter unless he fell to the 3rd round.About gullien being a 2 cat guy.

GUILLEN NU. 318 avg 20 hr 97 runs 97rbi 12 sb

Thats a 5 cat guy. have to give him his props, he went 9 to 12th rounds in a lot of events.

Myself im expecting a big comeback year from berroa , to get in the ultimate in round 13 is great value and round 10 in the main event.

Look at berroa's rookie numbers 287 17 hr 73 rbi's 92 runs and 21 steals. If the rbi's were just a little higher thats a 5 cat guy too.

The champ also took berroa in the 10th [artie]

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Sun Mar 27, 2005 3:35 am

Funny thing about Jeter is that he was drafted in the 1st or 2nd round in every main event league.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Sun Mar 27, 2005 3:43 am

KING the one 1st round pick who scares me the most is soraino . The hamstring is still bothering him , if he doesnt steal at least 25 ,he's not worth it.People still went after him with no fear. The biggest risk in round one.

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Sun Mar 27, 2005 3:51 am

Originally posted by eddiejag:

KING the one 1st round pick who scares me the most is soraino . The hamstring is still bothering him , if he doesnt steal at least 25 ,he's not worth it.People still went after him with no fear. The biggest risk in round one. I would agree with that, Eddie. There is a huge spread as far as Soriano's possible final numbers--more so than any other first round pick. Also, of all the Top 13 picks, he was the one that showed real regression last season. Should be interesting to see.

PW Express · Post by **PW Express** » Sun Mar 27, 2005 3:52 am

Totally agree Eddie but Soriano has HUGE upside(if healthy) from a relatively weak position. You also have to gamble a bit if you want to win this baby!

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Sun Mar 27, 2005 3:52 am

personally, I like Nomar better this year value than Jeter if you loko at position taken vs. upside...

PW Express · Post by **PW Express** » Sun Mar 27, 2005 3:53 am

I for one agree about Jeter. He is so damn steady and almost always plays every inning of every game.

stargells star · Post by **stargells star** » Sun Mar 27, 2005 3:55 am

In Chicago 4 i got M Cabrera with the 34th pick( 4th pick in the 3rd round)

PW Express · Post by **PW Express** » Sun Mar 27, 2005 3:56 am

WOW! Thats awesome value getting Cabrera in the 4th

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Sun Mar 27, 2005 4:01 am

agreed, that is just sick!!!

Thirty30 · Post by **Thirty30** » Sun Mar 27, 2005 4:10 am

Originally posted by eddiejag:

King i dont no about that . I HONESTLY wouldnt have taken jeter unless he fell to the 3rd round. About gullien being a 2 cat guy.

GUILLEN NU. 318 avg 20 hr 97 runs 97rbi 12 sb

Thats a 5 cat guy. have to give him his props.I think it's a little bit ridiculous to declare Carlos Guillen a "5-category player" based upon one good season. The reason people are so comfortable with Jeter is not just because of the quality numbers, but the incredible consistency he's offered for a decade.

Consider the stats quoted above for Guillen in 2004. Then realize that he'll be 30 years old before this season ends, and never before had he put up those kind of numbers in even ONE category. Carlos Guillen's previous career highs were: .276 AVG - 9 HR - 56 RBI - 73 RUNS - 4 SB. The guy did spike across the board and you can't be ultra-confident that he's now an automatic .300+ hitter with 20 HR and near 100/100. If he plays three more years like he did last year, then you'll have a valid point.

Jeter is the complete opposite. If you put 2003 aside (even though he played as well as ever) because of the fact that the dislocated shoulder on Opening Day in Toronto forced him to play in only 119 games, this guy's career WORSTS in each category match up really well with the season of Carlos Guillen's life.

Bottom line is that Jeter has a very clear ceiling and an even clearer cellar. If Carlos Guillen hits .245 this year with 6 HRs and 5 SBs, I don't think anyone who follows baseball will exactly fall out of their chair. If Jeter doesn't reach 20/20 with a .300+ AVG and 100+ RUNS, those same people would be pretty shocked (because he can do all of that even if he just has a ho-hum season).

PW Express · Post by **PW Express** » Sun Mar 27, 2005 4:13 am

Couldnt agree with you more 30. I think last year was a career year and abberation for Guillen.

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Sun Mar 27, 2005 4:18 am

Originally posted by stargells star:

In Chicago 4 i got M Cabrera with the 34th pick( 4th pick in the 3rd round) The clear outlier among the 20 leagues. Chicago 4 was the only league he lasted to the 3rd round.

Teixeira was another guy that only lasted to the 3rd round in one league (#33 in New York 1)--an absolute steal. The team that got him also has the best first three picks I saw of all 300 teams: Vlad, Cabrera, and Teixeira. Truly unbelievable.

PW Express · Post by **PW Express** » Sun Mar 27, 2005 4:20 am

You aint kidding King! Why couldnt we be in that league, although im pretty happy to be in a league where 2 teams tried the no starter strategy.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Sun Mar 27, 2005 4:44 am

THIRTY i agree with everything you said about gullien. BUT im not trying to compare gullien to jeter , its the round , 1 or 10. Rather take a cabrera or teixeira their and take a chance like a berroa round 13 or a gullien. To be fare on gulliens career numbers thats the first time he got major at bats . King also said those guys are 2 maybe 3 catigory guys. You still have to llok at those numbers , they are a 5 cat guy. I myself think guillen will put up good numbers again , just not that good.The knee surgery does scare me a bit, thats why i targeted berroa.I THINK guillens power should be the same 15 to 20 homers , rbi's more like 75 to 85 , the biggest fall that 318 avg maybe 290 and the steals will come down to about 5. Still not bad.

p.s. i got guillen last year round 23.

eddiejag

2004 american auction champ n.y.

2004 runner up n.y. league 1.

2004 nu. 30 overall main event

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Sun Mar 27, 2005 4:47 am

HOW THE HELL DOES TEIXEIRA GO IN THE 3RD ROUND. IT'S NOT POSSIBLE.

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Sun Mar 27, 2005 5:25 am

Originally posted by eddiejag:

HOW THE HELL DOES TEIXEIRA GO IN THE 3RD ROUND. IT'S NOT POSSIBLE. Why? He's just another 1b. There are many of them.

Clearly a league where more than the average number of owners focused on position scarcity.

Not really that unusual, is it?

Dyv

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Sun Mar 27, 2005 5:42 am

Originally posted by Dyv:

quote:Originally posted by eddiejag:

HOW THE HELL DOES TEIXEIRA GO IN THE 3RD ROUND. IT'S NOT POSSIBLE. Why? He's just another 1b. There are many of them.

[/QUOTE]Pujols is "just another 1b," too.