Average Draft Positions

Evil Empire · Post by **Evil Empire** » Mon Mar 28, 2005 5:28 am

You forgot Luke Scott. Another stud! Garner is an idiot. Tavarez and Scott have not played above AA. Neither is ready and both will be in AAA by May.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon Mar 28, 2005 5:50 am

You forgot Luke Scott. Another stud! Garner is an idiot. Tavarez and Scott have not played above AA. Neither is ready and both will be in AAA by May. Thank you! I was starting to think I was crazy.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Mon Mar 28, 2005 6:02 am

Originally posted by Dyv:

Should be a fun season... all I need to do to win $100k is have Bond, Prior, Berkman all get healthy... the rest of my team play up to expectatoins. Get Taveras to break out, scoop up a 30 save closer from waivers and hope every other major player I don't own gets injured.

Same aspirations we all have in some fashion

Dave [/QB][/quote]

Dave...I'd take that scenario as well...I'll be using all the Pirate Voodoo I have ready to make that happen!!!

Haaaaaargh!

~Lance

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon Mar 28, 2005 7:04 am

"You don't know how to pencil it in. You may be worried all year and you may end up with three Rookies of the Year. It's possible. You can't pencil it in. You just don't know. You can project, but even the sabermetricians aren't always right."

--Astros manager Phil Garner on how he has no idea what he's doing

kd.gray · Post by **kd.gray** » Mon Mar 28, 2005 7:42 am

Being an owner that admits that I totally overlooked the Houston situation and got Burke in both the main event and my auction, I feel your pain.

Burke is not an 18 year old kid, he is 25. has he really been that bad to lose a starting spot to Orlando (bleeping) Palmeiro.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Mon Mar 28, 2005 7:48 am

Most of you will not agree, I am guessing, but to toss another hat in the ring for the Jeter discussion is Renteria. I see him as BA upside over Jeter, a little less (10?) in runs scored, about the same in HR, and less in SP (again, about 10). However, Renteria may get 25-30 more RBI's than Jeter. Renteria has not shown the blazing speed of past, but at 29 upside is there, too.

Jeter was gone before my second round pick and I went for the "entire package" in Renteria at pick #17. Early, perhaps, but he would not have been there for #44. He may not be Beltran or Abreu, but there is enough there (say, 100-15-100-15-.315) to satisfy.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon Mar 28, 2005 7:50 am

I didn't take Burke because of this silly situation; he'd be a great pick if he was sure to play all season. Houston only affects me in what they do with Ensberg now, but it gets on my nerves that I have to pray their management will do the smart thing even in that situation. There should be no debate about who plays third base (or second for that matter).

What really irks me is just a poorly run organization.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon Mar 28, 2005 7:55 am

RE: Renteria

He'll have a lower average and less homeruns than Jeter. Boston won't let him run wild. Look for .296, 11 homers, 15 stolen bases. Good luck with all that.

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Mon Mar 28, 2005 8:01 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

Most of you will not agree, I am guessing, but to toss another hat in the ring for the Jeter discussion is Renteria. I see him as BA upside over Jeter, a little less (10?) in runs scored, about the same in HR, and less in SP (again, about 10). However, Renteria may get 25-30 more RBI's than Jeter. Renteria has not shown the blazing speed of past, but at 29 upside is there, too.

Jeter was gone before my second round pick and I went for the "entire package" in Renteria at pick #17. Early, perhaps, but he would not have been there for #44. He may not be Beltran or Abreu, but there is enough there (say, 100-15-100-15-.315) to satisfy. I've got Jeter adding about 3 more points (out of team 75) than Renteria...and that's mostly due to the HR and Run differential. SB and RBI's are failry close but I agree Renteria has more upside there. Avg should be failry close, but because Jeter will have about 50 more AB's, those 15 extra hits become pretty valuable to your total team AVG. Best/Wost case scenario, Jeter's value drops by about .70 and Renteria's adds anothe 1 point. Eeven with that Jeter is still an extra 1-1.5 points worth of value. times than by 20 leagues and that's his add'l value for the overall comp.

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Mon Mar 28, 2005 8:10 am

Originally posted by GCA73:

You forgot Luke Scott. Another stud! Garner is an idiot. Tavarez and Scott have not played above AA. Neither is ready and both will be in AAA by May. While you may be correct, there are a fair number of players that come from AA to the pros. Taveras has a good eye (as evidenced by his minor league stats and projected major league profile) and can run very very fast. If he can get on base at a .330 clip or so he'll stay up all year and swipe 35+ bases.

Agreed?

Lots of IFS

Dave

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Mon Mar 28, 2005 8:30 am

be back in AAA in may. can't steal 1b. I wouldnt bid more than $7 for him in my league.

Q

Evil Empire · Post by **Evil Empire** » Mon Mar 28, 2005 8:32 am

No I do not agree, but everyone is entitled to their opinion. He is judging 2 players that have not played above AA by 50 spring AB.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon Mar 28, 2005 9:16 am

Again Dyv, I'm not really arguing about the value Taveras has for your team. It's more about how much value he and some of the others have for the Astros. I have him down for .250/.330/.334

You're on the money for on-base percentage and steals for a full year and it'll be decent for your team, but what kind of value does he hold for Houston. That .334 easily becomes one of the worst slugging numbers in the majors. The man cannot hit a double, much less a homerun.

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Mon Mar 28, 2005 10:48 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

Again Dyv, I'm not really arguing about the value Taveras has for your team. It's more about how much value he and some of the others have for the Astros. I have him down for .250/.330/.334

You're on the money for on-base percentage and steals for a full year and it'll be decent for your team, but what kind of value does he hold for Houston. That .334 easily becomes one of the worst slugging numbers in the majors. The man cannot hit a double, much less a homerun. I don't care if Houston wins, though - that's the cool part. As a matter of fact, if they play like crap there is more of a chance they'd let Taveras play to give him gametime experience. Screw the Astros

Dave

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Mon Mar 28, 2005 11:00 am

Originally posted by GCA73:

No I do not agree, but everyone is entitled to their opinion. He is judging 2 players that have not played above AA by 50 spring AB. You're judging them by the same exact data and information GCA... it's just you're choosing to look at hitting .300 and stealing 9 bases as a fluke whereas I'm willing to be open minded. If Podsednik can hit .260 and keep a job why can't this kid?

Don't pretend I'm judging them and you're not

Evil Empire · Post by **Evil Empire** » Mon Mar 28, 2005 11:14 am

Now What. Burke went 4-5 with a hr and a steal today. What will Garner do now.

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Mon Mar 28, 2005 11:23 am

Originally posted by GCA73:

Now What. Burke went 4-5 with a hr and a steal today. What will Garner do now. Send him to AAA for more seasoning?

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon Mar 28, 2005 3:25 pm

Yeah, I don't really care about them either.

There's the problem with spring smples, Burke is probably blowing away most of the team after one great day.

Online Yeti · Post by **Online Yeti** » Fri Mar 24, 2006 8:10 am

Originally posted by King of Queens:

I had a chance to go through the first few rounds of each league today--some real shockers! In any event, here are the top 30 players in terms of average draft position:

Player

Average draft position

Earliest draft position

Latest draft position

1. Alex Rodriguez 1.95-1-4

2. Carlos Beltran 2.50-1-4

3. Albert Pujols 2.65-1-4

4. Vladimir Guerrero 3.35-2-6

5. Miguel Tejada 5.65-3-8

6. Bobby Abreu 7.10-5-11

7. Johan Santana 7.30-2-11

8. Todd Helton 9.10-6-13

9. Alfonso Soriano 9.40-6-13

10. Carl Crawford 9.60-5-13

11. Randy Johnson 10.60-4-15

12. Manny Ramirez 10.70-6-18

13. Ichiro Suzuki 14.10-9-21

14. Jason Schmidt 16.85-10-23

15. Mark Teixeira 17.45-11-33

16. Scott Rolen 18.30-13-27

17. Derek Jeter 19.45-13-28

18. Adrian Beltre 19.50-11-27

19. Miguel Cabrera 21.30-15-34

20. David Ortiz 22.50-15-37

21. Jim Thome 24.75-13-39

22. Aramis Ramirez 25.35-13-37

23. Nomar Garciaparra 26.65-16-41

24. Gary Sheffield 27.00-16-41

25. Pedro Martinez 27.05-12-48

26. Juan Pierre 27.15-15-45

27. Ben Sheets 27.85-9-44

28. Jimmy Rollins 31.00-19-45

29. Michael Young 32.50-21-45

30. Aubrey Huff 32.50-24-51

~40. Barry Bonds 38.10-15-88

There were some real surprises as well in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. These players were all taken at least 10 picks before they were taken in any other league:

Corey Patterson 18th overall in Chi-1

Rafael Furcal 20th overall in NY-7

Jim Edmonds 22nd overall in LV-5

Magglio Ordonez 29th overall in LV-6

Rogers Clemens 39th overall in LV-5

John Smoltz 32nd overall in NY-1

Sean Casey 33rd overall in LV-1

Vernon Wells 36th overall in Chi-3

Shawn Green 37th overall in NY-4

David Wright 38th overall in NY-7

Justin Morneau 40th overall in LV-1

Also of note, 11 players were taken in the first round in all 20 drafts: A-Rod, Beltran, Pujols, Vlad, Tejada, Abreu, Santana, Helton, Soriano, Crawford, and Unit. Manny Ramirez was taken in the first round in every league except Las Vegas 9, and Ichiro was a late first rounder in 15 out of 20 leagues. After those 13 players, there was tremendous variance in terms of who was drafted and where.

I'm sure there will be some official draft list that comes out soon, but this should tide everyone over for a few days. Enjoy! Come on guys, I'm dying here waiting for the games to start. Is anyone currently working on this type analysis on the 2006 main-event drafts? Kudos to KOQ for keeping us going last year by the way. I don't think I ever mentioned how entertaining that thread was at the time.

As an aside, I guess only D Wright, Furcal and Clemens justified those strange early picks last year. Sorry for the guy that took Corey Patterson at 18 overall (ouch). Who will be the Derek Lee mature breakout for 2006? Let's liven up the discussion here, at least until the "true" stats start to accumulate.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Fri Mar 24, 2006 9:19 am

WOW that was some great sh#t.To go back and see the predictions we make a year latter is awesome.

Like i said a year ago TEIXEIRA and CABRERA 1st rd picks , and JETER isnt A 1st rd pick.I passed on JETER with the 1st pick in the 3rd round this year, took sizemore instead.Lets do it again, why i like sizemore more,at 24 he goes 22 hr ,22 sb and 81 rbi's.He has 30 ,30 upside, were JETER last year,19 hr ,14 sb and 70rbi's,and he's now 32.

I was a little off on my KONERKO projections , 10 hr and 10 rbi's, his 283 bavg was a little higher than i thought. BUT i was right on my TEIXEIRA projections EVEN CALLING FOR HIS 300 BAVG.

DYV nice job on his TAVERAS stats , right on.

LETS DO THIS AGAIN , KING of QUEENS lets go.

roundmann · Post by **roundmann** » Fri Mar 24, 2006 9:53 am

Would any of you keep Tavares at $14.00 in a 12 team NL only keeper league?

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Fri Mar 24, 2006 10:06 am

Originally posted by roundmann:

Would any of you keep Tavares at $14.00 in a 12 team NL only keeper league? depending on your options, yeah, should be worth about 17

Big Fish · Post by **Big Fish** » Sat Mar 25, 2006 3:10 am

King/Eddie.

The stewards of the message boards. Keep it up.

I have just reviewed the posts and I am in complete shock that a combatant in League 1 NYC I believe was able to take Vlad, Cabrera, and then Tex in the 3rd. How is this possible? Ok, I can almost accept Cabrera that late (although still very good value imho), but Tex lasting to the early 3rd?

That is the most sobering news I have received this year. I have no chance of repeating as the team with the most offensive pts in 2006.

That is flat out ridiculous. Glenn, unless you have some "good" news to report about another Sean Green in the early 3rd, please spare us all the pain.

FIghtin Amis - Pujols, Pierre, C. Lee first 3.

Scans33 · Post by **Scans33** » Sat Mar 25, 2006 3:19 am

Fightin - I am in NY league 1 and nothing of the sort happened ... Vlad and Tex were early 1st rounders and Cabrera was the 3rd pick of the 2nd. They are on 3 separate teams.

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Sat Mar 25, 2006 3:22 am

Big Fish / Scan,

That happened in last year's draft: NOT THIS YEAR's.