This is the time of year MVP ballots get sent out to sports writers around the country and the annual debates get geared up over which players are “Most Valuable”.
It got me thinking about which players are most valuable to us in the NFBC.
As I was looking over the 2011 stats one thing that stood out to me was the field of outstanding outfielders this year…at the top are Kemp, Granderson, Bautista, Braun and Ellsbury.
When I was comparing their numbers I was also struck on how nearly identical Braun’s and Ellsbury’s numbers are so far this year: they both have exactly 27 home runs, 96 rbi, and 37 hr; Braun is hitting .317 with 101 runs scored, Ellsbury is hitting .318 with 110 runs scored.
But while the numbers are nearly identical, I consider Ellsbury much more valuable to us in the NFBC, because he has performed so far ahead of where we collectively thought he would this year. In March, Ellsbury’s ADP was 40th, compared to Braun’s 8th overall.
Using the ADP as a tool to help compare values, and comparing all player performances for 2011, I completed my own NFBC MVP ballot. I ranked the top ten according to how valuable I thought they were in the NFBC competition:
1) Curtis Granderson. Leading all of MLB in runs scored by a wide margin, he is tied for the lead in RBI and second in HRs. Throw in a couple dozen SBs, he is easily a top-five all around player. And his average draft position back in March was way down in the seventh round.
2) Justin Verlander. 23 wins, Whip at .92 etc… You can argue whether pitchers belong on a MVP ballot or not. I think they do and this is my ballot. Justin was clearly the best pitcher overall this year, and his ADP was well below Halladay and Lincecum… 43rd overall.
3) Matt Kemp. My vote for best player of the year, 100 runs/33HR/111RBI/40 SB and sporting a .317 avg., Matt would be my #1-pick overall if we had a do-over in the draft. His 2011 ADP was 19th overall.
4) Jacoby Ellsbury. Great numbers as noted above, his ADP of 40 overall gives him the nod over Braun, Bautista and the rest.
5) Clayton Kershaw. Only his win total separates him from Verlander. Similar numbers otherwise, including nearly identical ADPs in the low 40s.
6) Alex Avila. At first glance, his numbers don’t look that great, a .297 avg, 19 hrs, 77 rbi, 62 runs… but they do look like the 2nd or third-best set of numbers among all the catchers in MLB this year. He was on average the 25th catcher drafted, and his ADP placed him in the 23rd round, making him, in my mind, one of the most “valuable” players taken this year.
7) Jose Bautista. Major-league-leading 42 HRs. 100 rbi, 102 runs, .304 avg, and throw in 8 steals. Being able to play him at third base didn’t hurt. He won’t be available in the second or third round next year.
8) Ian Kennedy. 19 wins. 2.99 ERA. 1.12 whip 182 Ks. All this was available in the 13th round of most drafts.
9) Craig Kimbrel. Major-league-leading 45 saves. An astounding 123 Ks for a closer. ERA of 1.71. Whip of .98. On average, Craig was the 18th closer taken, following the likes of Thorton, Broxton and Street. You could have likely drafted him in round 11.
10) Asdrubal Cabrera. Jhonny Perhalta and JJ Hardy also put up very good numbers for this subset of top-five shortstops….all three of which were available in round 17 in most drafts. The nod goes to Asdrubal, by virtue of his 17 steals.
OK, there is my ballot for NFBC MVP. Honorable Mentions to Berkman, Braun, Santos, League, Worley, KJ Duke, Lindy and Greg A.
If anyone else wants to submit a ballot, feel free. If there are more than a couple other ballots by the end of the week, I will be glad to tabulate them by using the same 14,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1 scoring system the Writer’s Association uses.