ALL TIME DRAFT FINAL STANDINGS

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sun Nov 13, 2011 3:20 am

Todd not to be a pain in the a$$; is there any way to give the individual teams in the same format as the standings so I can post a link on Facebook?

Likewhat17 · Post by **Likewhat17** » Sun Nov 13, 2011 3:25 am

Todd, and everyone else, I hate to be the bearer of bad news... But I think that the standings are compromised.

Todd has Glen listed as taking Earl Averill 1932, when he took Earl Averill 1931. If my calculations are correct, this changes who finishes 2nd in the draft.

GLG20 · Post by **GLG20** » Sun Nov 13, 2011 3:33 am

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by ToddZ:

3. 4-Brian Slack

Reggie Jackson, 1969

90 points I never saw Randy Johnson in round 5 on this team. With Tom Seaver, he wins the league. [/QUOTE]Painful....

Appreciated the love and had no idea how it would turn out. I think somebody put a little money on me and the whole time in the back of my mind I'm thinking "oh, he's going to HATE me when he sees the blind picks!!!" The Dogo and I were joking back and forth (when things were looking good) that our worst fear would be revealing the blinds in backwards fashion, so the Randy pick would come up last. A moment similar to when Cliff Clavin loses all his money in final Jeopardy. "As long as it's not Randy Johnson here..." ... "Oh my!".... "Who are 3 people who have never been in my kitchen, Alex?"

Congrats to Jon. I was certainly skeptical as you were taking low-HR guys with RBI off the board. Didn't think there were enough guys out there to make it happen for you, but great job analyzing the talent pool and making a charge there at the end. Ron Perranoski... I could have told you from the outset that it would come down to Ron Perranoski.

And a big Congratulations to Steve. Beautiful strategy and excellent execution. As I said in one of my earlier posts, I should've known I was in trouble when you took Bob Gibson with the 14th pick ("why isn't he taking Dizzy Dean?!"). Then to follow that up with Pedro's low-era/whip year was thing of beauty. And you're clearly much more humble than I am, but I have a lot of respect (what do the kids say these days? "Mad respect"?) for your ability to adjust on the fly. Based on our limited conversations, you had a hitting strategy in mind and when that didn't quite work out, you decided to change direction and abandon Avg. I don't think I would've had the smarts or wherewithal to see what was happening and shift gears like you did. To have the flexibility to take what the draft gives you and devise a new plan... that's what won it for you. Inspiring for all my future drafts.

Again, thanks Shawn for putting this together and thanks Todd for the great work on the spreadsheet. Still amazed by that thing. And once again to Dan. Drinks are on me if I see you in Vegas, and if anybody ever needs a "Dan-like" person to collect blind picks or anything like that, please let me know.

Truly a pleasure.

Now I'm going to go curl up into a ball and cry myself back to sleep.

Likewhat17 · Post by **Likewhat17** » Sun Nov 13, 2011 3:39 am

Brian.. See me above post

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sun Nov 13, 2011 3:40 am

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

Todd not to be a pain in the a$$; is there any way to give the individual teams in the same format as the standings so I can post a link on Facebook? I can turn anything into a jpg for posting on Facebook, but I am not exactly sure what you mean - do you want 15 different images? One with the 15 teams listed? Shoot me a mock up on word and I am sure I can do it.

Likewhat17 · Post by **Likewhat17** » Sun Nov 13, 2011 3:41 am

Todd, if you missed my post, problem with the sheet and the standings regarding Earl Averill. You used his 1932 year instead of 1931

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sun Nov 13, 2011 3:43 am

Originally posted by Likewhat17:

Todd, if you missed my post, problem with the sheet and the standings regarding Earl Averill. You used his 1932 year instead of 1931 Saw it -- but PLEASE, send me notes like this via e-mail as well. I may miss them on the forum.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sun Nov 13, 2011 3:45 am

Originally posted by ToddZ:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

Todd not to be a pain in the a$$; is there any way to give the individual teams in the same format as the standings so I can post a link on Facebook? I can turn anything into a jpg for posting on Facebook, but I am not exactly sure what you mean - do you want 15 different images? One with the 15 teams listed? Shoot me a mock up on word and I am sure I can do it. [/QUOTE]Each team would be nice, but I don't want you to do it if it will take a lot of time.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sun Nov 13, 2011 3:50 am

Originally posted by ToddZ:

quote:Originally posted by Likewhat17:

Todd, if you missed my post, problem with the sheet and the standings regarding Earl Averill. You used his 1932 year instead of 1931 Saw it -- but PLEASE, send me notes like this via e-mail as well. I may miss them on the forum. [/QUOTE]The GOOD NEWS is the top of the are NOT CHANGED!!!

Phew, my ass caught a break there.

However, I do have bad news for Russell....

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sun Nov 13, 2011 3:51 am

Originally posted by Likewhat17:

Todd, and everyone else, I hate to be the bearer of bad news... But I think that the standings are compromised.

Todd has Glen listed as taking Earl Averill 1932, when he took Earl Averill 1931. If my calculations are correct, this changes who finishes 2nd in the draft. I don't see where it takes any points away from Steve or Jon. It looks like only Glen gains points.

Glenneration X · Post by **Glenneration X** » Sun Nov 13, 2011 3:52 am

Originally posted by ToddZ:

quote:Originally posted by ToddZ:

quote:Originally posted by Likewhat17:

Todd, if you missed my post, problem with the sheet and the standings regarding Earl Averill. You used his 1932 year instead of 1931 Saw it -- but PLEASE, send me notes like this via e-mail as well. I may miss them on the forum. [/QUOTE]The GOOD NEWS is the top of the are NOT CHANGED!!!

Phew, my ass caught a break there.

However, I do have bad news for Russell.... [/QUOTE]

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sun Nov 13, 2011 3:52 am

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by ToddZ:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

Todd not to be a pain in the a$$; is there any way to give the individual teams in the same format as the standings so I can post a link on Facebook? I can turn anything into a jpg for posting on Facebook, but I am not exactly sure what you mean - do you want 15 different images? One with the 15 teams listed? Shoot me a mock up on word and I am sure I can do it. [/QUOTE]Each team would be nice, but I don't want you to do it if it will take a lot of time. [/QUOTE]It's just busy work -- for now I have the time.

Do you want them with or without the blinds? I'll forward you the blinds from Dan so you have them as well.

[ November 13, 2011, 09:55 AM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sun Nov 13, 2011 4:00 am

CORRECTED STANDINGS

Asumijet · Post by **Asumijet** » Sun Nov 13, 2011 4:02 am

Originally posted by Texas Connection:

Count me in on the failure to evaluate pitching correctly. I had no idea era and ratio would be valued so much higher over the saves and wins. I figured in this format that a low total would win due to the fact you would have no injuries and all owners would be competitive and constantly adjusting. I put the winning number at 95. My strategy was to go for 48 points in hitting and pitching and punt 1.5 categorie in each. My guess was steals and saves would be the most likely to be thrown as they are most often thrown in most leagues. I was hoping to be the only one throwing my particular categories just like most of us. Team 3 was my nemesis and had the same offensive strategy I did. I drew the number 10 spot and felt like the categories to be thrown would depend on who got to me. My top 9 guys went in the top 9 and was upset that Koufax, my number 5 went just before me. I thought pitching was more important because I was worried about wins. Who knew? I really wanted piazza and/or pudge as I thought that was one of the biggest drop-offs in postiiton. Obviously many saw that coming. I ended up getting my first choice on every blind round which gave me mixed feelings. Dan kept congratulating me on getting my guy. How come nobody else wanted him was my normal feeling? On my last pick I was debating between a pure save guy and a save, win guy. I had 2 guys circled. The save guy Jeff Shaw and the win guy 1963 Ron Perranoski. My back up save guy was mark davis. I had Shaw and Perranoski circled and went with Shaw. It was extremely difficult to try and figure out what someone might do for me. It turns out I needed the wins more than the saves and I didn't think era and whip would matter for me. Perranoski would have won it for me. I know we all can do that on our teams. I think Brian was 4 rbis away from winning it. We can all probably look at one pick that was the difference. I would have bet that Nolan Ryan would have gone in this draft. Again I think like many my pitching rankings and even the season that owner's took was way off. Also, I hated in when several players got drafted that were not on my board and I looked at their numbers and said "how did i miss him?" Who else might I be missing? As the team three nemesis, I actually had no intention of punting rbi and hrs until I messed up my draft with having Carew misplaced as a 2nd baseman. At that point it was time to make the best of a bad situation.

I did however have every intention of dumping wins and Ks from the start. And even after a number of bad picks and miscalculations, I would have won, if I had not overvalued WHIP and ERA in my Rollie Fingers pick and switched it for almost any other closer with 40+ saves. I will be kicking myself for that pick until we start the slow draft season. :rolleyes: But hat is also why I like the blind rounds. Playing with perfect information completely changes the game for the worse. If we knew the results of the upcoming baseball season, none of us would play fantasy baseball. My proposal would be to draft all rounds openly by picking the player, but allow us to select the year of all players used after round 23. Submit them to the scorekeeper and then we get the results. Some hybrid between that proposal and what we did would allow us to eliminate completely blind rounds and not require us to have a scorekeeper and/or blind round helper.

Great job to the winners and thanks to everyone who made the game possible. Would enjoy doing it again next World Series. I would also enjoy picking a decade like the 1970s or 1980s.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sun Nov 13, 2011 4:03 am

CORRECTED TRACKER

Glenneration X · Post by **Glenneration X** » Sun Nov 13, 2011 4:04 am

Originally posted by ToddZ:

CORRECTED STANDINGS

Hey Todd, now that you've discovered and corrected an error that has brought me out of the cellar, do you think you can find a few more that win this thing for me?

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sun Nov 13, 2011 4:08 am

FWIW, the guys at Rotojunkie that have done this for years and have pretty much fleshed out a whole bunch of the variables tell me they use a 10x10 format using best year and career to make up the 10 cats. I don't know if that is entire career or career average, I can find out if it is of interest.

That said, in the back of my mind I am hoping Greg is able to get some form of an on-line version with STATS and I suspect we will want to keep that fairly simple.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sun Nov 13, 2011 4:09 am

Originally posted by ToddZ:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by ToddZ:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

Todd not to be a pain in the a$$; is there any way to give the individual teams in the same format as the standings so I can post a link on Facebook? I can turn anything into a jpg for posting on Facebook, but I am not exactly sure what you mean - do you want 15 different images? One with the 15 teams listed? Shoot me a mock up on word and I am sure I can do it. [/QUOTE]Each team would be nice, but I don't want you to do it if it will take a lot of time. [/QUOTE]It's just busy work -- for now I have the time.

Do you want them with or without the blinds? I'll forward you the blinds from Dan so you have them as well. [/QUOTE]Full rosters

Suburban Strugglers · Post by **Suburban Strugglers** » Sun Nov 13, 2011 4:10 am

I was very surprised that Nolan Ryan did not go but my other biggest surprises where:

Don Mattingly who had two season to choose from including one with a .352 31 117 and 113 and another with a .324 35 107 and 145.

Jim Edmonds was the other. I figured that with a decent amount of people not going crazy on batting average that a guy who hit .295 with 42 homers and 129 runs and then gave you 108 and 10 steals would go for sure

None of these guys fit my team except maybe Mattingly and I ended up valuing Don Hurst slightly higher.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sun Nov 13, 2011 4:11 am

Originally posted by Glenneration X:

Hey Todd, now that you've discovered and corrected an error that has brought me out of the cellar, do you think you can find a few more that win this thing for me?

Sorry, even numerish has its limits.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sun Nov 13, 2011 4:12 am

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

Full rosters Got it, will work something up and send it to you, but maybe not until later today.

Navel Lint · Post by **Navel Lint** » Sun Nov 13, 2011 5:36 am

Originally posted by ToddZ:

quote:Originally posted by ToddZ:

quote:Originally posted by Likewhat17:

Todd, if you missed my post, problem with the sheet and the standings regarding Earl Averill. You used his 1932 year instead of 1931 Saw it -- but PLEASE, send me notes like this via e-mail as well. I may miss them on the forum. [/QUOTE]The GOOD NEWS is the top of the are NOT CHANGED!!!

Phew, my ass caught a break there.

However, I do have bad news for Russell.... [/QUOTE]

I declare this entire draft null and void

Navel Lint · Post by **Navel Lint** » Sun Nov 13, 2011 5:40 am

Originally posted by Navel Lint:

quote:Originally posted by ToddZ:

quote:Originally posted by ToddZ:

quote:Originally posted by Likewhat17:

. [/QUOTE]The GOOD NEWS is the top of the are NOT CHANGED!!!

Phew, my ass caught a break there.

However, I do have bad news for Russell.... [/QUOTE]

I declare this entire draft null and void

[/QUOTE]And to think, I'm working on my end of draft write-up and I was gonna pat myself on the back for using the last couple picks to stay out of the cellar

The Fool on the Hill · Post by **The Fool on the Hill** » Mon Nov 14, 2011 7:07 am

Congrats to Steve and Jon. Just have to say that Ferdie Schupp being a (THE?) key pick in a draft of all-time great baseball players just seems.... wrong.

When Steve picked Maury Wills in round six, I thought "toast". Wow, was I wrong! Well thought out and perfectly executed strategy... I tip my hat.

I really thought Shawn had it in the bag after the first two picks. He was set up perfectly to add 5 or 6 era/whip/saves studs and make the 1500 IP requirement. Also set up to finish ahead of the W/K punters. With Tiant, even better. If the turn with Derrek Lee and Ralph Kiner went RP/RP I think things may have gone differently.

Brian's strategy of dumping BA was solid from the beginning. It opened so many options up with tons of guys out there with great counting stats but iffy BA that so many teams passed over, I decided to copy it, but too late. Yes, I put some $ on you, and Unit might have been an iffy move, but all-in-all you did not disappoint. Well played.

I noticed drafting in the middle seemed to be a distinct disadvantage as the 5-6-8-9 teams finished bottom 4. Agree with what many here have already mentioned re. the shunning of SP's for RP's. I figured Shawn would do that, but I didn't figure EVERYBODY would jump on that bandwagon or I never would have gone Felix and Mariano so early. Maybe next time a "minimum 5 SP" instead of a "minimum 2 RP" should be the rule?

Jon and Dave/Dan, I've sent e-mails re. paying off on our bets. Just send me your address.

Thanks everybody, it's been a ton of fun for this "newbie".

Navel Lint · Post by **Navel Lint** » Mon Nov 14, 2011 9:58 am

Man I had a hard time sleeping Sunday night. It’s not that I thought I was going to win and just got edged out, I’ve known for a while now that I wasn’t going to win, but it was hard to see my name pop up in 14th place. (since revised down to 15th)

Looking back at the draft and the way it unfolded it’s clear to see how and why my team failed. It would be easy to sit here and blame the blind rounds, but that wouldn’t be accurate, there was more than enough information available to make an informed decision.

The real problem was that I had a flawed strategy for this league right from the outset. Flawed at least in terms of the way almost everyone else played the game. Talking to some people prior to the KDS, I convinced myself of two things; first was that I would take Ed Walsh if he was available to me and second that if there was one category I could dump, K’s was it.

When I received the ninth draft slot after the KDS drawing I knew Walsh was out of the picture, I also made the judgment that dumping a category would make this league impossible to win. :rolleyes:

With a plan to be as solid as possible across the board, I decided that on the offensive side of the ledger that I would just take the players of highest value next. Highest value being determined by the statistical ranking that I created for 11,000+ player seasons using Excel. While I knew that some players (Ruth, Gehrig, Hornsby, Cobb) had a clear edge over the entire field based on raw stats, and that some positions were weaker than others, I basically just assumed that all 15 owners would put together very similar hitting teams.

With that preconditioned thought in my head, I figured that the league would be won or lost with pitching. My hope was that I would get one of the Big 4 (Walsh, Mathewson, Alexander, Johnson )or a possible fifth of Jack Chesbro. I thought the draft would start 3 hitters/5 pitchers or maybe 4/4.

When the draft starts Ruth – Walsh – Hornsby – Johnson – Mathewson; not only are things going as I suspected, it also forces me to start looking at who I could get at the nine spot. Up until that point I was hoping that one of the 8 hitters/pitchers that I had previous identified as ‘must-haves’ might somehow fall to me, but it didn’t seem like it would happen until GlennX picked.

Glenn picked 1904 Jack Chesbro. His pick was very influential on me. It meant two things; first that one of my top 8 players would fall to me, and second and far more important, it reaffirmed to me that pitching was going to be the key to this draft.

As I previously said, I wanted to win this pool with pitching. Doing that meant determining what was needed. First I started with what I thought would be the Starter/Reliever splits. Our rules required us to reach 1500 innings and use at least 2 relief pitchers (30 or more GR). I estimated that two/three teams would go 5-Starters/4-Relievers, five/six would go 6/3, and six/eight would go 7/2.

Although I didn’t make exact targets, I thought that wins and K’s would come at a premium with ERA’s ranging from 1.80 to 2.20.

So when Glenn made his pick of Chesbro and included in his comments that he wanted to maintain pace in Wins and even take a slight advantage in K’s. I KNEW my pre-draft assessment was correct.

The next two picks, Alexander and Cobb, put the draft right back on script. But now I’m in a strange position. Of the four hitters I thought were the best, my order was Ruth – Gehrig – Hornsby – Cobb. Now surprisingly to me, Gehrig was available. My choice is between Gehrig and my highest rated available pitcher, which is Sandy Koufax.

Before the draft I would have taken Gehrig without question. However after Glenn jumped Chesbro and gave his reasons why, I felt that Koufax was the right pick. I would have a start in K’s (382) that would be unmatched, a very solid start in WHiP (0.855), a decent ERA(2.04) that I thought would be the median and a couple of saves (2) just for good measure. The only thing that actually gave me pause before taking Koufax was his wins (26) total. Twenty-six wins would put me in a hole behind the 33-41 win totals of the pitchers taken in front of me.

When 3 of the next 5 picks behind me were also pitchers, I was patting myself on the back for making the right pick.

Round 2 was relatively simple. I picked up 1930 Al Simmons. The numbers are huge and the only question was whether I wanted to take an outfielder or reach for a “scarce” position.

When round 3 got back to me I was pleasantly surprised to see Denny McClain sitting there. McClain had everything I wanted, an ERA under 2.00, a low WHiP (0.905), 280 K’s and 31 wins. In retrospect, the fact that he was still there should have sent off a warning alarm instead of church bells. Although I’m not entirely convinced that a majority of the teams had, at that point, determined that wins and K’s could go by the wayside in favor of ERA, WHiP, and saves. After all, the poster boy for that type of strategy was Dutch Leonard and his 0.96 era and he was still on the board until Rd 5.

Looking back now, Leonard would have been a great pick for me. But in my mind he was never a factor. I felt that taking Leonard would have then made my first pick of Koufax wasted. Sure, it would have balance out my ERA to around 1.6 and lowered my WHiP even more, but it would have put me in a big (perceived) hole in wins and reduced the advantage I gained in K’s when I took Koufax.

The McClain pick was not what ended it for me though, my fourth round pick of 1964 Dick Radatz did. I can still hear the words in my head now; “value in a vacuum”. That’s what Todd wrote about my pick, “value in a vacuum”. And he was 100% right. Everything was setting up perfect. With Koufax and McClain I had an ERA just under 2.00 with a low WHiP, an excellent base of wins, and I now had set a bar for K’s that everyone would have to chase (haha, watch their era’s rise with the Ryan’s and Schilling’s and JR Richard’s of the world coming ).

Now I needed just one more key piece to the puzzle, Dick Radatz. I still wasn’t sure exactly how many saves I would need to get into the top third in that category while still collecting wins. I thought Radatz was perfect with his 16 wins and 29 saves. He was half starter/ half reliever. With him, I could get 5 starters in total and two 45+ save closers and then use that ninth pitcher spot in the last round to get one last starter or closer depending on how things looked.

Unfortunately, his 2.29 era sealed my fate as a bottom feeder in that category. The great migration north of the leagues era’s as they would attempt to chase me down in K’s never happened. “Value in a vacuum

.”

The rest of the draft was just a series of hits and misses with my hitting. Even though I finished with the fewest hitting points, I was basically just the equivalent of one mediocre first baseman worth of stats from being middle of the pack.

As for the rest of my pitching, instead of just staying the course and winning (15 points) the K’s and W’s categories, I tried middling the all the stats and I ended up floundering to the bottom of the standings.

Oh well! It was a good experience and I’ll be back again next year.