FAAB Bidding Week 1!

[Glenneration X]

I've said this too many times over the years. I'll take the closer with the job today over the guy waiting in the wings with the "better skills" 100 times out of 100. Just ask those who held onto Chris Perez and Kevin Gregg's closers in waiting all last year or anyone who was banking on Ryan Franklin crapping out the few years before he finally did. In life, possession is nine tenths of the law. When it comes to closers it's 999/1000's.

[BK METS]

Same thing was said about Guerra with Jansen waiting in the wings.
Nobody knows nuthin'.

Everyone sees what they want to see.

Here's a fact: Closers don't lose their job unless they start blowing saves or get hurt.

Regarding that fact, did Robin Ventura ever say it was Santiago's "job" ? I think its possible he keeps the job if he keeps performing.. but it is also possible Thornton or Reed take over the position during the season. Santiago wasn't even in consideration for the position based upon Ventura's comments, until he closed out the final exhibition game on April 4th, and thus he was given the first 2 save chances of the season. To me, it is a huge risk to spend $400+ on this guy... but I guess time will tell. It is very similar to the Sean Burnett situation last year with Washington, and we see how that turned out.

[Hells Satans]

Same thing was said about Guerra with Jansen waiting in the wings.
Nobody knows nuthin'.

Everyone sees what they want to see.

Here's a fact: Closers don't lose their job unless they start blowing saves or get hurt.

Regarding that fact, did Robin Ventura ever say it was Santiago's "job". I think its possible he keeps the job if he keeps performing.. but it is also possible Thornton or Reed take over the position during the season. Santiago wasn't even in consideration for the position based upon Ventura's comments, until he closed out the final exhibition game on April 4th, and thus he was given the first 2 save chances of the season. To me, it is a huge risk to spend $400+ on this guy... but I guess time will tell. It is very similar to the Sean Burnett situation last year with Washington, and we see how that turned out.

After the game Ventura was asked if Santiago is officially the team’s new primary saves man. According to Scot Gregor of the Arlington Heights Daily Herald, the rookie manager responded: “He is.”

Whatever. If he sucks, he'll lose the job. If he gets saves, he'll keep it...even if Addison Reed K's 18 per 9. Managers don't try to fix bullpens that work.

This is nothing like Burnett. Storen was the organization's closer of the future. Burnett was a 30 year old journeyman. Change was inevitable.

Santiago is 24. Reed is the superior talent, but clearly not viewed by the manager as a closer yet. This is Guerra/Jansen redux.

[Cocktails and Dreams]

There are so many factors. Nobody knows for sure if it was wise to spend big to get him or not. It could work out well and it could backfire. It depends on what you eventually would have been able to do with the money. And nobody knows yet what impact players lurk on the waiver wire and how they will perform when big money is spent either.

I think back to my first year playing fantasy baseball(draft style). It was the World Championships of Monopoly Baseball. Shawn Childs was in my league and made a great bid on Floyd to prevent me from getting a much needed potentially impact arm. I was not too happy about him barely outwitting me on the amount. However, had I got him for my big bid, I would not have been able to land Pedro Alvarez later, who I needed when Youk went down for the year, and supplied just enough power for me to hold on. Floyd did fine, but I think I would have lost if I had won that bid. Same could be the story here. My bidding heavy on Santiago could work out great, but it also could cost me that impact player needed to contend in leagues down the road. I would bet against him holding the job for a tremendous length of time, but in certain situations, desperate times call for desperate measures. You cannot let your team fall too far behind if you don't like the makeup. Other teams don't require such a bid, but more of a price enforcing bid.

Bottom line is, I don't think anyone can say there were right or wrong, no matter what happens. He is the closer now and he will be until he blows some most likely. He will have to earn his leash, and if I were Ventura I would not let him face a power righty or maybe any righty with the tying run at the plate and two outs. Hopefully he does though. Also depends on how much closer turnover there is this year. But, one thing that needs to be factored in is that he is potentially more valuable than any closer purchase this season since he seemingly has the job now and it is possible he keeps it all year and saves 40 games.

On an ultimate team I had Bailey and Thornton as my two closers. So I had to decide right away if I make a big bid and get him, or basically punt saves. I chose to bid big and get him.

Diamond team where I ended up deciding to punt wins and k when I kept missing pitching runs in the 15 hole, I had Bailey as third closer. I must do well in saves to preserve what little chance I have in the first place with that strategy. The fact that Rivera and Hanrahan have 0 so far my have weighed on my mind to bid big and get him there too.

I think the gamble is necessary in some instances, but there is no question that it is a big gamble. And I don't think people are right or wrong on the decision, even thought it will turn out to be right or wrong in the standings.

[BK METS]

This is nothing like Burnett. Storen was the organization's closer of the future. Burnett was a 30 year old journeyman. Change was inevitable.

Santiago is 24. Reed is the superior talent, but clearly not viewed by the manager as a closer yet. This is Guerra/Jansen redux.

Nothing like Guerra/Jansen, IMO. Broxton had the job last year, got hurt, Jansen was given a few save chances and did not do well, then he got hurt, then Guerrier was considered, but eventually Guerra got the job and did very well.

How is this like the Reed/Santiago situation? Reed is the closer of the future... just like Storen was. But, Burnett was given the job and blew it.

Besides the point.... Santiago does not have closer stuff and Ventura is showing his in-experience by giving him the position. I give it 1 month tops and several blown saves, before Reed is in the position.

What this move clearly says is, they have no confidence in Matt Thornton, for obvious reasons and there is no chance he regains the job unless everyone fails.

Listen... I am happy everyone bid a ton on Santiago/Aceves/Rodney... As I said, it happens every year with closers.. and why I took a different strategy going into drafts this year and took limited risk, highly rated closers with very little chance of losing their job except for injury (Kimbrel, Bell, Axford, Mariano).. because I have been guilty in the past of chasing saves all year, using up most of my FAAB for that reason. Maybe my strategy works out, maybe not. But so far this year, the closer situation is turning out like every year and a lot of FAAB money will be used up until it finally settles in...

[NorCalAtlFan]

so you overdrafted closers at the expense of SP's and/or offensive players? i get your strategy, i just think you might have taken it to an extreme.

what is closer stuff? ftr, i haven't seen santiago pitch, i've just heard a couple games on the radio and the play by play guys rave about his repertoire.

[BK METS]

so you overdrafted closers at the expense of SP's and/or offensive players? i get your strategy, i just think you might have taken it to an extreme.

what is closer stuff? ftr, i haven't seen santiago pitch, i've just heard a couple games on the radio and the play by play guys rave about his repertoire.

I guess we will see on my draft strategy. I have been wrong many times before.

Santiago doesn't throw hard. He is a crafty lefty with his screwball being his best pitch. Unless he takes the path of John Franco, which is definitely a possibility, I don't think he lasts as a closer. Just my opinion.

[Hells Satans]

so you overdrafted closers at the expense of SP's and/or offensive players? i get your strategy, i just think you might have taken it to an extreme.

what is closer stuff? ftr, i haven't seen santiago pitch, i've just heard a couple games on the radio and the play by play guys rave about his repertoire.

I guess we will see on my draft strategy. I have been wrong many times before.

Santiago doesn't throw hard. He is a crafty lefty with his screwball being his best pitch. Unless he takes the path of John Franco, which is definitely a possibility, I don't think he lasts as a closer. Just my opinion.

From Fangraphs (MLB data):

Hector Santiago: Average FB Vel: 94.5 MPH
Addison Reed: Average FB Vel: 94.5 MPH

[BK METS]

so you overdrafted closers at the expense of SP's and/or offensive players? i get your strategy, i just think you might have taken it to an extreme.

what is closer stuff? ftr, i haven't seen santiago pitch, i've just heard a couple games on the radio and the play by play guys rave about his repertoire.

I guess we will see on my draft strategy. I have been wrong many times before.

Santiago doesn't throw hard. He is a crafty lefty with his screwball being his best pitch. Unless he takes the path of John Franco, which is definitely a possibility, I don't think he lasts as a closer. Just my opinion.

From Fangraphs (MLB data):

Hector Santiago: Average FB Vel: 94.5 MPH
Addison Reed: Average FB Vel: 94.5 MPH

Reed has regularly thrown in the minors and majors at 98 MPH plus

[CALI CARTEL]

From Fangraphs (MLB data):

Hector Santiago: Average FB Vel: 94.5 MPH
Addison Reed: Average FB Vel: 94.5 MPH

Reed has regularly thrown in the minors and majors at 98 MPH plus

Not sure you understand what the word "Average" means. I'm sure Santiago puts a decent amount up around 98 to have the same average.

I still don't get the unadulterated love for Addison Reed, just because people "thought" he might be the closer doesn't mean he was entitled to the role.

Tell me which one of these guys is more suited to be given the first shot at the job:

Player A: Born 12/1987, pitched 153 games in the minors with 343 innings over 4 seasons above Rookie ball.
or
Player B: Born 12/1988, pitched 56 games in the minors with 108.1 innings over 1 season above Rookie ball.

Statistics aside considering Santiago has added 2 new pitches over the last 15 months; if all other things were equal, wouldn't Player A be the first guy to get a shot here? I'll give you one guess who Player A is; here's a hint, it's not Addison Reed.

Who was the last guy to become a closer less than two calendar years out of college? Billy Koch maybe, and he was an absolute college superstar (#4 overall pick -- Reed was a 3rd rounder).

[DOUGHBOYS]

It doesn't matter what a closer does in the minors.
It doesn't matter if they average 90 mph or 95 mph.
It doesn't matter how long they've been in the minors or majors.

What does matter is who gets the ball to start the ninth inning.
That is what matters.

If Frankie Francisco breaks a leg, and Miguel Batista is named the new Mets closer, then Batista goes for big money.
His skills remain the same and others may have better skills, but he'll have what we all want our closers to have in the ninth inning.

The ball.

[mlbbug]

Well it sure looks like this thread has been beaten to death but as the last poster stated,having the ball in your hands on the mound in the 9th inning is really all that matters! I guess many of us(myself inlcuded) are guilty of over-analyzing this great game that we all love. Remember when we were little kids trying to play with the big boys and could never get chosen to be on a street game team? Well, those days when they wanted to play ball and you had the only ball available you certainly got to play the game back then. Like Glenn said,possession is 9/10 of the law!

Rich McCormick
Astoria,NY

[Dnye23]

Rodney is still available in my league. I'm trying to figure out how much is too much to get him. I could really use the saves because all I have is Marmol. Was planning to wait on saves in my draft but the top 10 guys were taken within 2 rounds, oh well. Any thoughts? I don't want to blow 1/4 of my budget on him but that might be what he goes for at this point. I don't trust Farnsworth at all when/if he comes back.

[gpchurchill]

Who was the last guy to become a closer less than two calendar years out of college? Billy Koch maybe, and he was an absolute college superstar (#4 overall pick -- Reed was a 3rd rounder).

not certain if they meet your criteria, but off the top of my head; street and then storen.

[CALI CARTEL]

Who was the last guy to become a closer less than two calendar years out of college? Billy Koch maybe, and he was an absolute college superstar (#4 overall pick -- Reed was a 3rd rounder).

not certain if they meet your criteria, but off the top of my head; street and then storen.

Street's a good one, forgot about him, he was closing for Oakland in his 2nd professional season.. Storen is really borderline, was a #1 pick in 2009, but didn't start 2011 with the closer role, he was closer before June tho, so technically within 2 years, but not to start his 2nd year.

But then again Street & Storen, like Koch, were both First Rounders; Reed was a 3rd rounder. So in the last quarter of a century we've had 3 first round picks turn into closers at the beginning of their 2nd professional season -- those odds didn't bode well for Addison Reed's chances to win the job.

[Money]

Rodney is still available in my league. I'm trying to figure out how much is too much to get him. I could really use the saves because all I have is Marmol. Was planning to wait on saves in my draft but the top 10 guys were taken within 2 rounds, oh well. Any thoughts? I don't want to blow 1/4 of my budget on him but that might be what he goes for at this point. I don't trust Farnsworth at all when/if he comes back.

There were a lot of Rodney pick ups last week. You could use those bids as a starting point for your analysis.

[The Franchise]

Rodney is still available in my league. I'm trying to figure out how much is too much to get him. I could really use the saves because all I have is Marmol. Was planning to wait on saves in my draft but the top 10 guys were taken within 2 rounds, oh well. Any thoughts? I don't want to blow 1/4 of my budget on him but that might be what he goes for at this point. I don't trust Farnsworth at all when/if he comes back.

I don't want to throw out a number and then you don't get him or maybe over bid on him, but he will probably be more money this week than he was last week.

[whale4evr]

Who was the last guy to become a closer less than two calendar years out of college?

Chad Cordero was another.

[The Mighty Men]

1 hit, 2 K's, 1 wild pitch, 1 balk = 1 save for Santiago against a great hitting Detroit team. Time to break out the bubbly.

[CALI CARTEL]

Who was the last guy to become a closer less than two calendar years out of college?

Chad Cordero was another.

Cordero didn't close until the 2nd half of his 2nd year, but he's on the list. Every single counter example has been a #1 draft pick who played for a BCS conference, World Series contending college baseball teams (*Cordero played in the Big West, which is loaded with under-the-radar baseball powerhouses). I'm from San Diego, and while they were successful with Strasburg on the hill, SDSU was very far from a World Series contender during Addison Reed's time there -- and faced similar 2nd tier NCAA competition.

So while they're have been a handful of examples of guys coming in to close right away, they all had much better pedigrees than Reed, who's only real reason for being "anointed" the closer by most was a single skyrocket season through the minors. All of the other early closers were drafted to become major league bullpen guys right away; the White Sox had no intentions of Reed flying up their system that fast, and it would've been a huge mistake to put the weight of that role on his shoulders this season. I like Reed's skill set, but I honestly thought he was 3rd in line for that job behind Thornton and/or Crain (like most didn't see Santiago coming down the pipeline).

If you've gone through the rigors of the NCAA tournament successfully, following a grind through the SEC/ACC/BIG12 regular season, that shows me a lot more in being ready to handle serious bullpen duty in the Majors, than a trip through the Mountain West and an early exit in the NCAA's. Give me a solid season in the Majors in 2012 and I'll be ready to give Reed a shot in 2013, but he was a long shot to be the closer opening day in 2012, Hector Santiago or no Hector Santiago.