Hosmer

Winston's Empire · Post by **Winston's Empire** » Tue May 31, 2011 3:49 pm

WOW...This kid can hit!

The most impressive thing to me is how he uses the entire field already. Very impressive so far.

Sebadiah23 · Post by **Sebadiah23** » Tue May 31, 2011 4:21 pm

Originally posted by WINSTON'S EMPIRE:

WOW...This kid can hit!

The most impressive thing to me is how he uses the entire field already. Very impressive so far. He's got a little Josh Hamilton in him. Looking awesome, I concur.

Sebadiah23 · Post by **Sebadiah23** » Thu Jun 09, 2011 11:50 am

Originally posted by :

Real brain power on display. Thknas for that answer! ,

What is the hidden agenda behind that statement? Are you about to draft in a mid-season league and you are trying to get Hosmer to be drafted early or something? Please state all of your hidden agendas and your team's situation and how much you'd be willing to bid on a player first before making a comment like that or posting a quote. Or I will have to give you a verbal parking ticket for that obvious deflection.

I'm no Harry Crumb pokey, but I call them like I see them. (After someone else posts first so it makes it okay to pile on. Since that is even better. )

Don't bother responding Pokey because I don't change my mind on anything. I can't be righter than right. Right?

Pokey- thanks for your time. You are free to go.

Outlaw · Post by **Outlaw** » Thu Jun 09, 2011 1:11 pm

That was Spam that wrote that... the board is littered with it the past day or so.

Sebadiah23 · Post by **Sebadiah23** » Thu Jun 09, 2011 1:50 pm

Yes, I know. That was satire.

The bot posts are pretty lame though.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Mon Jun 13, 2011 7:10 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

quote:Originally posted by Gekko:

ps - helton bopped one too I like the Helton analogy. Let's keep track it as long as it is relevant. Hosmer's first game was May 6th. From then through May 12th:

Hosmer - 7 for 21, 0.3333, four runs, two homefuns, five RBI and one SB.

Helton - 6 for 18, 0.3333, one run, one homefun, three RBI, no SB.

Just the first seven possible days, so too early for any real assessment. I just think it would be fun to track Hosmer (break the bank) and Helton (McDonald's Happy Meal) and see who gives satisfaction. [/QUOTE]OK. It is about a month since Hosmer "arrived". I spent $411 for Hosmer on May 8th. Mark had bought Helton a week before for $53. Where do the stats stand now (beginning with the week I got Hosmer or the week beginning May 9th)?

Hosmer has had 139 AB, scored 18 runs, hit five homeruns, 20 RBI's, stole one base and hit 0.2806. On all counts, not bad numbers, except of course the SB.

Helton, on the other hand, has had 89 AB, scored 17 runs, hit 6 HR with 14 RBI, no stolen bases and a 0.3258 BA.

Clearly Hosmer is out there everyday and is showing in the superior RBI results. However, Helton has all but matched Hosmer's production playing in a third less games and has a far superior BA.

Of course, it is still too early to declare a winner. We still have a little more than 3.5 months to play and Helton is the bigger injury risk. Some will say the true value is in what was the need at that time, which is true. However, Mark's $53 is clearly getting more bang for the buck than my $411 as things stand right now.

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Mon Jun 13, 2011 1:59 pm

wayne - interesting tally. hosmer looks legit, i still question his major league power this year. has 5 on the year, but 1hr was at texas, 2 were at coors field east (yankee stadium).

should be a good race, until helton gets hurt, which should be soon

rockitsauce · Post by **rockitsauce** » Mon Jun 13, 2011 9:37 pm

Originally posted by Sebadiah23:

I'm no Harry Crumb.

[/QB]that's right. you're not...and don't you forget it.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Wed Jun 15, 2011 1:49 am

Originally posted by Gekko:

wayne - interesting tally. hosmer looks legit, i still question his major league power this year. has 5 on the year, but 1hr was at texas, 2 were at coors field east (yankee stadium).

should be a good race, until helton gets hurt, which should be soon

True. I do not expect him (or really anyone) to get big power numbers out of Kaufmann or Target or Safeco. However, he will get a chance every once in a while at US Cellular or Yankee or Fenway. Hopefully he can take advantage. I will consider it a plus if he can duplicate his numbers for the last month for each month for the rest of the year. That would PROJECT OUT TO (just for you Dan) another 17 or 18 HR and 70 RBI!

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 6:25 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

quote:Originally posted by Gekko:

wayne - interesting tally. hosmer looks legit, i still question his major league power this year. has 5 on the year, but 1hr was at texas, 2 were at coors field east (yankee stadium).

should be a good race, until helton gets hurt, which should be soon

True. I do not expect him (or really anyone) to get big power numbers out of Kaufmann or Target or Safeco. However, he will get a chance every once in a while at US Cellular or Yankee or Fenway. Hopefully he can take advantage. I will consider it a plus if he can duplicate his numbers for the last month for each month for the rest of the year. That would PROJECT OUT TO (just for you Dan) another 17 or 18 HR and 70 RBI!

[/QUOTE]Not to beat a dead horse, but I think we can put this little exercise to bed. Mark was right...it was a good race with Helton actually winning I think until he got hurt. Unfortunately that came at the end of the year when an NFBC team could least afford it.

It still is a matter of conjecture as to whether Hosmer was worth 41% of my free agent money when Helton was had for 5% but that is more of a tactical argument (i.e. how to manage your FA budget). Strategically, Hosmer as it turns out allowed me to solidify my CI position and get more than 500 AB despite being in the minor for the first month so for my part he was worth it.

The numbers to date (Fantasy YTD):

Hosmer 506 AB with 65 Runs, 19 HR, 77 RBI, 10 SB and a .2945 BA (WOW...pretty close to my "projections", Dan!

) .

Helton 342 AB with 50 Runs, 11 HR, 58 RBI, 0 SB and a .3041 BA.

Unfortunately for Mark and the other Helton owners over the last five weeks Helton got hurt and batted .2000 with 4 Runs, 0 HR, 4RBI and no SB in only 40 AB. Hosmer, on the other hand went ballistic with a .3817 BA with 28 Runs, 9 HR, 24 RBI and 5 SB in 131 AB. Except for RBI's, that is nearly half his production for the year! The double digit stolen bases for the year were an unexpected plus, too.

For 2012, he is going to be a pretty hot "sleeper" just about everywhere (except the NFBC where there are no sleepers) and will be highly drafted. Maybe too high. Not trying to game or poison the well as I obviously like him but...and there is always a but...he has had the good fortune to finish hot which some will mistake as a good reason to take September times six. I am not going to do that.

Hosmer was helped, I think, by riding the KC wave this year generated by the surprising performances of Francoeur, Melky, and Alex Gordon. It would be more surprising still if they repeated. Also, of Hosmer's homers (I bet there is a club in KC right now by that name), only three were hit in 61 home games. And he did not hit lefty's too well.

Is he a bum? No way. One of the best up and coming talents out there, no doubt. He has time to learn to hit lefty's better (though there is no cure for Kaufmann). But I have a sneaking suspicion that he will be drafted based on projections of the highest expectations. He certainly met or exceeded mine this year but if he is drafted with too much of a premium, I will probably pass.

[ September 27, 2011, 12:27 PM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 10:56 am

Projections aside (please!

), and knowingly tipping my hand for the draft that starts in a day or so, Hosmer is going to be a hot commodity when drafting begins.

Major League pitchers had more than enough time to find a hole in his swing, instead he got better as the season wore on.

Hosmer hit five homers and hit .283 in May, his first month. In June, video and experience in hand, pitchers adjusted to throwing what had worked on Hosmer in May. The result was no homers in June and 30 points off his batting average.

Since then, Hosmer has been the one making the adjustments to the tune of 14 homers and a .315 average. There is a lot to like here.

Most likely, he'll be hitting in front of Billy Butler, a plodder who is prone to the double play ball. I'd expect double digit stolen bases again.

The home runs at Kaufman are an anomaly. Gordon has even splits there. I don't think Kaufman will hold him back.

The lefty-lefty splits of .238 with one home run reminds me of Ryan Howard.

When Howard burst onto the scene in 2005, his lefty-lefty split was one homer and a batting average of .148.

There was a lot written about whether he could handle lefties.

In 2006 on his way to hitting .313 and hammering 58 homers, Howard hit .279 and hit 16 long balls off southpaws.

Hosmer isn't a hulk like Howard. In fact, if picking between Howard and Loney, Hosmer's swing would more resemble that of Loney. But, Hosmer has already hit more home runs than any of Loney's seasons.

The power to the opposite field is real, something that is not in Loney's arsenal.

The 80/34 k/bb ratio intigues me most. Clearly, a hitter who has yet to learn to look for THE pitch during an at bat with just 34 walks. Yet, he still makes a lot of contact without that know-how in his quiver.

Intriguing indeed.

So, now the $100,000 question. Where does Hosmer go in drafts next year in the NFBC?

My guess is that he goes as high as the middle of the second round and as low as the fourth round. The cost will be high. Hosmer has average and speed for those that drafted power in the first round. He has double digits for the 75/75 crowd. He has steals at a position that has little. A little something for everybody.

The hype machine should propel him into the second round by the time Main Drafts begin.

How good is he? I am touting a Royal, that's how good!

If Dayton Moore knows anything at all above the minor league level, we should be reading about a contract for this kid that covers Hosmer's arbitration years and maybe first year of free agency during this off season.

I have little faith that it'll happen.

But, it doesn't take the shine off this kid for our purposes. Wayne, enjoy the last two days with Hosmer, unless willing to pay the price, you'll probably never have him again.

NorCalAtlFan · Post by **NorCalAtlFan** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 11:11 am

After I pass on Pujols in the first, I plan on taking Hosmer at 3.2 in the PreMature Part Deux. Hope that helps Dough:)

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 11:21 am

He may not reach you, Bryan.

Raskol · Post by **Raskol** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 11:30 am

You fellas might want to check out Robert Andino in the fourth round.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 11:30 am

Speaking of Hosmer, is there anything better than getting a steal by way of opportunity? Hosmer isn't necessarily quick, but he is young and athletic and will hit in front of a sloth.

Looking at the stat page and seeing a Carlos Pena steal makes me smile.

Only because he was running to keep out of a double play and only because the hitter strikes out, and only because the catchers throw looks as if helium were in the baseball.

And still, I smile.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 11:38 am

Originally posted by Raskol:

You fellas might want to check out Robert Andino in the fourth round. Where does Juan Carlos Oviedo get drafted?

Raskol · Post by **Raskol** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 12:04 pm

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

quote:Originally posted by Raskol:

You fellas might want to check out Robert Andino in the fourth round. Where does Juan Carlos Oviedo get drafted? [/QUOTE]Eighth round of the Dominican Penal League.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 1:41 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Wayne, enjoy the last two days with Hosmer, unless willing to pay the price, you'll probably never have him again. Not next year anyway. He will be picked high, will not deliver stats equal to premium next year (sophomore slump or whatever) and in 2013 will fall to where I think his value lies (say around Round 7 or 8) and I will be waiting there...'jes like a spider! (a reference to a line given by the late great Hattie McDaniel for those of you not up on GWTW trivia)