Utterly Ridiculous

beausole · Post by **beausole** » Mon Mar 22, 2010 8:01 am

Ah, Bjoak, so it screws not the guys in this league but the guys in the other leagues that I drafted poorly. We'll see. My offense is fine. I'll hold my team up against any other's. Let's check back around the break on this. Thanks for reminding about the no trades. Had completely forgotten that. Please remind whetehr defensive stats count, too.

NorCalAtlFan · Post by **NorCalAtlFan** » Mon Mar 22, 2010 8:12 am

beausole was in my league. i'm sure we all noticed what he was doing. i don't think it had an adverse effect on us or anyone else.

and his offense, light in power maybe, but it's actually pretty strong across the board.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Mon Mar 22, 2010 8:14 am

Originally posted by beausole:

Thanks for reminding about the no trades. Had completely forgotten that. Had to give a smiley for this one!

beausole · Post by **beausole** » Mon Mar 22, 2010 8:18 am

Originally posted by NorCalAtlFan:

beausole was in my league. i'm sure we all noticed what he was doing. i don't think it had an adverse effect on us or anyone else.

and his offense, light in power maybe, but it's actually pretty strong across the board. I don't know. If Carlos Zambrano (my 7th rd pick) and Micah Owings (my 8th) get hot, they might knock a few balls over the fence.

NorCalAtlFan · Post by **NorCalAtlFan** » Mon Mar 22, 2010 8:19 am

lol. i had forgotten about them. good call.

The Franchise · Post by **The Franchise** » Mon Mar 22, 2010 8:21 am

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by TOXIC ASSETS:

This scenario is EXACTLY why I have always believed that you better take an ace early on. Year after year there is plenty of hitting. Year after year there is a lot less reliable pitching. Yet most people continue to try to win with hitting. There are going to be teams in this league that are at a disadvantage, right out of the gate. when does shawn childs normally take his ace? [/QUOTE]I'm the proud owner of Greinke

[/QUOTE]OH OH, Greinke will now be going late 2nd Rd.

PITCHING PITCHING PITCHING! Who wants pitching. This weekend's Draft and thread has just created the possibility of a huge early run on pitching next weekend?

Mark, scrap your game plan. It's time to take Halladay in the 1st Rd.

The Mighty Men · Post by **The Mighty Men** » Mon Mar 22, 2010 8:28 am

Only GEKKO could start a thread and get it to 11 pages in under 24 hours.

We might hit 15 pages before one day expires.

NorCalAtlFan · Post by **NorCalAtlFan** » Mon Mar 22, 2010 8:33 am

you might be right. too bad blanton wasn't one of the pitchers selected early, then we'd hit 20 pages easily.

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Mon Mar 22, 2010 8:36 am

congrats- the very 1st 2010 joe blanton reference. that, and i agree with bjoak- yikes, better get back to work.

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Mon Mar 22, 2010 8:50 am

Originally posted by Schwks:

Hey, as a second weekender only, thanks for this posting. I can now be prepared for both a) a quicker then expected pace and b)an earlier then expected pitcher run. Both things that I probably would have thought of, but not in real terms. Looking forward to drafting with you Gekko. going by this thread, starting pitchers are going a lot earlier than most people expected. be ready to jump "your guy" if you want him

looking forward to this weekend.

man, this two weekend concept is GREAT

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Mon Mar 22, 2010 8:54 am

Originally posted by The Franchise:

Mark, scrap your game plan. It's time to take Halladay in the 1st Rd. take a pitcher who i project for under 200K's in the first round? nah.

i can get delarosa in the 13th

Hells Satans · Post by **Hells Satans** » Mon Mar 22, 2010 9:50 am

Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by The Franchise:

Mark, scrap your game plan. It's time to take Halladay in the 1st Rd. take a pitcher who i project for under 200K's in the first round? nah.

i can get delarosa in the 13th

[/QUOTE]That's an interesting projection. Pitching in the AL East, he had 208 and 206 the last two years. Move to NL = fewer K's? Sir, I'd like to subscribe to your newsletter.

mallorys killers · Post by **mallorys killers** » Mon Mar 22, 2010 10:02 am

I was in the Atlantic City draft. It was the fastest draft that I was ever in. It left little

time to locate the players you had prepared to select. Players went way too early. This would throw off the players you had selected for the round you wanted them in.Every pick time was running out because of lack of time to locate players. That explains somne bad picks.

OLIVO SUCKS!!!!!!

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Mon Mar 22, 2010 10:55 am

Originally posted by Hells Satans:

That's an interesting projection. Pitching in the AL East, he had 208 and 206 the last two years. Move to NL = fewer K's? Sir, I'd like to subscribe to your newsletter. i went through this logic puzzle with some people in AC this past weekend.

Toronto abused Halladay and kept marching him out there inning after inning. there is no need to take him out for a pinch hitter, like in the NL. Also toronto didn't have to "keep him fresh" for any playoff runs.

in philly, he will be taken out of games for pinch hitters and the phils if they are smart won't rack up extra innings on his arm if he has to pitch another 30-40 innings in the playoffs.

i have his regular season innings capped at 220, with 210-215 a more likely total. low 190's for K's.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon Mar 22, 2010 10:56 am

Originally posted by beausole:

Ah, Bjoak, so it screws not the guys in this league but the guys in the other leagues that I drafted poorly. We'll see. My offense is fine. I'll hold my team up against any other's. Let's check back around the break on this. Thanks for reminding about the no trades. Had completely forgotten that. Please remind whetehr defensive stats count, too. We can agree to disagree on my second point especially as I've not seen your team.

As to the first point, it screws up the people in YOUR league in terms of what they can accomplish in the overall because they need a balanced team to accrue enough points to win the overall (as opposed to league prize). If the best ERA anyone else can get because of your draft is 4.00 (along with other mediocre pitching stats), they are not going to be able to effectively compete for the overall because they'll be too far back in those categories.

If you are in two main events and don't understand the dynamics in this league, that is too bad for you.

[ March 22, 2010, 05:01 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

Hells Satans · Post by **Hells Satans** » Mon Mar 22, 2010 11:06 am

Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Hells Satans:

That's an interesting projection. Pitching in the AL East, he had 208 and 206 the last two years. Move to NL = fewer K's? Sir, I'd like to subscribe to your newsletter. i went through this logic puzzle with some people in AC this past weekend.

Toronto abused Halladay and kept marching him out there inning after inning. there is no need to take him out for a pinch hitter, like in the NL. Also toronto didn't have to "keep him fresh" for any playoff runs.

in philly, he will be taken out of games for pinch hitters and the phils if they are smart won't rack up extra innings on his arm if he has to pitch another 30-40 innings in the playoffs.

i have his regular season innings capped at 220, with 210-215 a more likely total. low 190's for K's. [/QUOTE]That's not how Uncle Cholly manages.

Lee's IP gamelog last year between the time they made the trade and the time they wrapped up the division:

9, 7, 8, 9, 7, 5, 3, 7, 9

Basically, unless Lee got pounded, Cholly let him pitch as long as he could.

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Mon Mar 22, 2010 11:16 am

Originally posted by Hells Satans:

quote:Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Hells Satans:

That's an interesting projection. Pitching in the AL East, he had 208 and 206 the last two years. Move to NL = fewer K's? Sir, I'd like to subscribe to your newsletter. i went through this logic puzzle with some people in AC this past weekend.

Toronto abused Halladay and kept marching him out there inning after inning. there is no need to take him out for a pinch hitter, like in the NL. Also toronto didn't have to "keep him fresh" for any playoff runs.

in philly, he will be taken out of games for pinch hitters and the phils if they are smart won't rack up extra innings on his arm if he has to pitch another 30-40 innings in the playoffs.

i have his regular season innings capped at 220, with 210-215 a more likely total. low 190's for K's. [/QUOTE]That's not how Uncle Cholly manages.

Lee's IP gamelog last year between the time they made the trade and the time they wrapped up the division:

9, 7, 8, 9, 7, 5, 3, 7, 9

Basically, unless Lee got pounded, Cholly let him pitch as long as he could. [/QUOTE]in lee's last 7 regular season starts for the Phils, he went over 6 innings TWICE. 2 out of 7 games. see how smart one sounds when actual facts are used!

[ March 22, 2010, 05:20 PM: Message edited by: Gekko ]

Hells Satans · Post by **Hells Satans** » Mon Mar 22, 2010 11:31 am

Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Hells Satans:

quote:Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Hells Satans:

That's an interesting projection. Pitching in the AL East, he had 208 and 206 the last two years. Move to NL = fewer K's? Sir, I'd like to subscribe to your newsletter. i went through this logic puzzle with some people in AC this past weekend.

Toronto abused Halladay and kept marching him out there inning after inning. there is no need to take him out for a pinch hitter, like in the NL. Also toronto didn't have to "keep him fresh" for any playoff runs.

in philly, he will be taken out of games for pinch hitters and the phils if they are smart won't rack up extra innings on his arm if he has to pitch another 30-40 innings in the playoffs.

i have his regular season innings capped at 220, with 210-215 a more likely total. low 190's for K's. [/QUOTE]That's not how Uncle Cholly manages.

Lee's IP gamelog last year between the time they made the trade and the time they wrapped up the division:

9, 7, 8, 9, 7, 5, 3, 7, 9

Basically, unless Lee got pounded, Cholly let him pitch as long as he could. [/QUOTE]in lee's last 7 regular season starts for the Phils, he went over 6 innings TWICE. 2 out of 7 games. see how smart one sounds when actual facts are used! [/QUOTE]You appear to be missing my point, which is that Charlie will leave him Halladay in till the end if he's not getting killed, as he did with Lee.

As I indicated, in Lee's first 9 starts, he pitched 64 innings, including 2 starts where he pitched 3 and 5 innings and gave up 6 runs in each. So in the 7 starts where he pitched well, he was permitted to pitch an average of 8 innings per start. Not exactly a quick hook.

In his last 3 starts, which you are referencing in the "2 of last 7":

6 IP = 7 R - Should he have continued?

4 IP = 1 R - Pulled as a result of a long rain delay in his penultimate start of the season.

5.2 IP, 3 R - Game was on Oct. 1, last start of season before Game 1 of NLDS

If you think Halladay is going to pitch well, you should expect a minimum of 230-240 IP, particularly with Lidge's issues. If you think the Phillies wil limit Halladay's innings if he's pitching well, you are wrong. The only way Halladay doesnt reach 230 IP and 200 Ks is if he gets hurt, he's way worse than expected, or the Phillies have like 7 rain delays in his starts

[ March 22, 2010, 05:34 PM: Message edited by: Hells Satans ]

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Mon Mar 22, 2010 11:35 am

agree with gecko on the k's- but a g ball pitcher in the nl that strikes guys out ;playing the minor league mets, washinton with one real good hitter, atlanta with maybe 1 good hitter come june when chipper and glaus are on the dl, and florida with one good hitter should do pretty well in era and whip and maybe wins- if the bullpen can pitch.

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Mon Mar 22, 2010 11:44 am

look at all the innings phils ace cole hamels had last year. some of the reduction IMO was their realization that all the 2008 innings caught up with him.

Walla Walla · Post by **Walla Walla** » Mon Mar 22, 2010 11:46 am

First and Final word on this post. Pitchers always go fast in the Main. They always have.

So does every so called sleeper, rookie or comeback player of the year. No suprises in these leagues. Two. There's no connection between the speed of a draft and the quality of a draft.

15 people can draft quickly and pick some terrible teams!

Hells Satans · Post by **Hells Satans** » Mon Mar 22, 2010 11:51 am

In 2008, a THT did a study that showed that the AVERAGE pitcher had a .57 increase in K/9 whebn when switching from the AL to NL. For elite pitchers, the number is even greater. Cliff Lee had a career average K/9 of 6.8 and was at 6.3 before the trade. His k/9 with the Phillies was 8.3. Javier Vasquez went from 8.6 in CWS to 9.8 last year.

Even if Halladay has a modest .57 k/9 increase from his 7.7 average of the last two years (to 8.2) AND you assume he pitches only 220 innings for some reason (he's never pitched fewer than 220 IP in any season where he made 30 starts), Halladay would still end up with 202 Ks.

MGBMARTY · Post by **MGBMARTY** » Mon Mar 22, 2010 12:03 pm

Pitchers do not go as early as they did in Ac 1 this year. what happened was that Roy who went before Linc in mid 2nd felix late 3rd i who never take an SP before Rd 4 got Greinke early 4 then nothing but Yellow stickers from that point till 7th

Marty

baggler · Post by **baggler** » Mon Mar 22, 2010 12:09 pm

GG did a real good job switching to a different game plan as his draft was going on...you can expect a pitcher run...but not like the one I witnessed it was pretty amazing. And some owners like to get a middle pick not to get shut out on a run and if you picked precisely there you got shut out. Everyone has a different game plan and maybe some owners felt like sp's were a position scarcity this year

. Anyhow the owners were well prepared which added to the speed of the draft.Personally I like to take a minimum of thirty seconds to draft.... I do it to slow down a draft and cross off players or whatever. It is frustrating to be in an event when shooting for the overall championship and someone sets their goals at the league prize but it is what it is. You can't control what others do just what you do.

I wish everyone good fortune this weekend and GG you sold me I'm taking three sp's early.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon Mar 22, 2010 12:10 pm

Originally posted by Hells Satans:

In 2008, a THT did a study that showed that the AVERAGE pitcher had a .57 increase in K/9 whebn when switching from the AL to NL. For elite pitchers, the number is even greater. Cliff Lee had a career average K/9 of 6.8 and was at 6.3 before the trade. His k/9 with the Phillies was 8.3. Javier Vasquez went from 8.6 in CWS to 9.8 last year.

Even if Halladay has a modest .57 k/9 increase from his 7.7 average of the last two years (to 8.2) AND you assume he pitches only 220 innings for some reason (he's never pitched fewer than 220 IP in any season where he made 30 starts), Halladay would still end up with 202 Ks. I'm not sure you get Gekko's point which is that in the NL Halladay will be more likely to get pulled for pinch hitters, causing him to lose 20 innings and therefore strikeouts.

That said, it's not a good point. That number indicates in more than half of Halladay's starts, he'd be pulled a full inning early. If you compare the top 30 SPs in the NL and AL over the last five years, you will find the average number of innings pitched per game is virtually identical. Kyle Kendrick gets pulled for pinch hitters--not Roy Halladay.