Look at all these people on the boards!

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Thu Jan 06, 2011 7:43 pm

Bell is gone from San Diego, more than likely at the deadline. Hope for Gregerson to hop over Adams to get the spot. It's a good bet.

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Thu Jan 06, 2011 7:43 pm

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

I really didn't like the way Bailey threw at the end of last year. If Devine stays healthy, he could be a vulture before Breslow. you could very well be right, but i like Breslow's attitude more than Devine history...just a gut feeling..FWIW

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Thu Jan 06, 2011 7:44 pm

Yep, Devine's health is as good as Zumaya's

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Thu Jan 06, 2011 7:45 pm

What a write-up Shawn! I don't think there's a better, more honest, knowledgeable fantasy writer on the planet. Well done.

For an alternative view on Schandler ... I view him and BHQ as the Merrill Lynch of fantasy research. For background, I am a better portfolio manager than fantasy player. One thing that I do differently from most in the industry is that I consciously avoid reading analyst research from most firms to the extent I can, especially the majors like Merrill Lynch. I know what I am going to get from research like Merrill - a good story, recommendations that are safe most of the time and occasionally speculative (and when their analysts do go out on a speculative limb, it is generally at the wrong time - say hello to Mike Jacobs and Joba Chamberlain, Mr. Schandler). That translates to mediocre returns. If I then add in Merrill's impact on the market - their research alone will create incremental demand (some of which is built in before I have a chance to act) I know that being strongly influenced by their research gives me a built-in disadvantage over a large opportunity set. Sure, they'll have a few hits which they'll trumpet to their client base, but over time their purported edge is an anti-edge, negative alpha.

Does all of this mean they don't provide quality research? Not at all. I've been there and done that, I know what they do can provide an information edge if interpreted correctly. But therein lies the problem. There is inherent bias in conclusions, leaning toward safety most of the time, and as mentioned previously, speculation in most cases at the wrong time. Having looked at Schandler's work for a couple of years (and hearing about it second hand over the last two years), I see the same bias, same mistakes. Completely different business, common human nature. Schandler and Merrill do well in a linear world, not so much in a dynamic world which begs multi-discipline analysis and where the impact of human nature impacts prices. Another common problem here is that both Schandler and Merrill are telling you what to do with your money, they're not necessarily doing it with their own. When you are competing against high level competition, rather than telling someone else how to compete, the market dynamics become a lot clearer. Maybe if the HQ team comes back this year they will have learned something about market dynamics and be better for it, but their horrible showing in year one wasn't the least bit suprising for the reasons above.

Shawn understands all of these additional elements that Schandler misses. I don't know how or where he acquired those skills, but he has them and it has made him one of the best players in the game. With those skills he'd make a great portfolio manager too after about 10 years of getting to know the "inventory" of companies, rather than fantasy players. Steve Jupinka, who works for a commodities firm, clearly has a background for market dynamics. These are two of the top players in the game, they don't make excuses for mistakes the market seems to make, like Schandler-types do; they embrace the mistakes to get an edge. Likewise, they don't assume they're smarter than the competition, they work hard to get and maintain an edge - which makes them smarter than the competition, or at least more successful. Those are qualities that make for a great portfolio manager or fantasy player.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Thu Jan 06, 2011 7:49 pm

Did you know Breslow is one of the smartest guys in the major leagues. Graduated from Yale, molecular studies

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Thu Jan 06, 2011 7:51 pm

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Did you know Breslow is one of the smartest guys in the major leagues. Graduated from Yale, molecular studies yes i did, that's the attitude i was referring to.

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Thu Jan 06, 2011 7:52 pm

Well done KJ, BTW don't be butt-dialing me again at 10CT,,i'm usually in bed by then...

[ January 07, 2011, 01:54 AM: Message edited by: Kentucky Reign ]

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Thu Jan 06, 2011 7:54 pm

Wow, 6 pages pass and Shawn's write-up is deleted while I am writing making my entire post meaningless and out of place.

Oh well.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Thu Jan 06, 2011 7:55 pm

One thing that hasn't changed in America.

Ivy league schools still have that reputation.

All those smarts, and they still don't know one end of a football from the other.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Thu Jan 06, 2011 7:56 pm

Originally posted by Kentucky Reign:

Well done KJ, BTW don't be butt-dialing me again at 10CT,,i'm usually in bed by then...

It was front-pocket, just to be clear.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Thu Jan 06, 2011 7:56 pm

Shawn will enjoy it in the morning...

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Thu Jan 06, 2011 7:57 pm

Still no cell for me, but I'm always around...unless they show

'Paul Blart, Mall Cop II

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Thu Jan 06, 2011 8:00 pm

[ January 07, 2011, 02:09 AM: Message edited by: Kentucky Reign ]

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Thu Jan 06, 2011 8:07 pm

Dough, i have a weakness for Ivy League Pro's. they're not all-stars, but they're dependable.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Fri Jan 07, 2011 1:01 am

11 pages, that was a long night.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Fri Jan 07, 2011 1:11 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

11 pages, that was a long night. Wow, I left the boards too early last night!! I didn't see this coming. Damn. Great job on the baseball talk and you guys are the best. WOW. Now that's cool.

This should give folks something to look at. And if the discussion goes again today, count me in. Nice.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Fri Jan 07, 2011 1:33 am

Originally posted by Kentucky Reign:

Dan, FYI, we almost went through six rounds in the SCL before the first Closer was taken...I think that speaks a lot towards the uncertainty of closer situations this year...or maybe we didn't care about it at that time. Funny thing is, there is uncertainty every year, we just don't know it yet.

Going into last year, the top three closers according to the Forecaster, was Broxton, Street, and Nathan.

He/we could have had his/our pick of the litter for free, and still failed.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Fri Jan 07, 2011 1:35 am

Hi Greg,

Gotta run, but does Milwaukee really have a true ace?

For a full year, I really couldn't remember one since Vukovich...

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Fri Jan 07, 2011 1:49 am

I was in a hurry....Phrased differently, do you regard Greinke as an ace before the season or does he have to earn the title?

Winston's Empire · Post by **Winston's Empire** » Fri Jan 07, 2011 2:02 am

Hey Dough,

I know you question is for Greg, but I also live in Wisconsin and SOMETIMES root for the Crew as well.

Greinke in my opinion is the ACE of the Brewers. He has proven he can pitch an entire season in the AL and simply dominate, even for a bad team. He hopefully will show Gallardo the ropes of being more consistent for an entire year and will be the Greinke of 2007 - 2009.

Greinke was not happy in KC last year and has the following things going for him in Milwaukee.

1. A move from the AL to the NL.

2. A MUCH better offense behind him.

3. He wants to get paid and has a 2 year audition in a good situation to get that money!

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Fri Jan 07, 2011 2:10 am

My concern would be his make up.

He's not a grinder in any sense of the word and not a leader either.

He marches to the beat of a distant drum.

Talented for sure, if he likes his situation, the make up may follow.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Fri Jan 07, 2011 2:10 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

Wow, 6 pages pass and Shawn's write-up is deleted while I am writing making my entire post meaningless and out of place.

Oh well. Damn KJ, I didn't think I would get that kind of feed back, thanks. I almost feel like I should put it back up.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Fri Jan 07, 2011 2:13 am

Do it, Shawn.

Really, that was the best fantasy article I may have ever read...

Don't get a big head, your shoulders wouldn't support it...

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Fri Jan 07, 2011 2:17 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Seriously Shawn, a good read.

Although, that was a lot of words to say Shandler sucked... By the way, I didn't say he sucked.

I said his GB rate was really high which hurt his chances of hitting homeruns.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Fri Jan 07, 2011 2:18 am

Oh...must have been me that said it....