Live Chat With Shawn Childs Tuesday, Feb. 15th, 7 PM ET

[CC's Desperados]

Originally posted by Ryan C:





3.) We are all trying to figure out who will be this year's breakout SP's. Do you have a set of criteria or stats that you use going into the season that gives you a starting point to narrow down this year's contenders? Not really, I’m just looking for upside with the opportunity. As we get closer, I’ll look at rounds 15 -25 and try and map out the back end of my staff. Everyone knows the names. It comes down to whom you believe in. If you have a strong front of your staff, you may only need stability. I think your team structure is key. As we had a slight discussion earlier about AJ Burnett, he may be a time bomb this year. But he will be staring you in the face after round 20. If you have the K’s covered, he’s an easy avoid. If you think you are short, he has a chance to improve.

[CC's Desperados]

Originally posted by southpaw23:

quote:Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

Don't forget to tune in tonight at 7 pm ET for the Shawn Childs Live Chat. I think our man is preparing some of his answers now, so the first 30 minutes should be action packed. I don't think the love scenes come until the second hour!! But tune in because this should be a fun time and I have a feeling you'll have plenty of time to ask questions on the spot. Enjoy all.



Pitchers and catchers report today for most MLB teams. That's the official kickoff for MLB teams; a Shawn Childs Live Chat is the NFBC's official kickoff as well. As a newb here, I have no idea where these live chats are...is there a link here on the site for this chat? [/QUOTE]I’d start with my research with Jurgita Valts.

[CC's Desperados]

Originally posted by Hells Satans:

Assuming you are shut out of Tulo and Hanely, where would you feel comfortable taking Jose Reyes? I’d rather own him in the third round. I really need to know he’s healthy in spring training before I pay a premium. He’s a better fit as a third piece, but I could see a front team drafting him before the turn. I guess the bottom line is his perceived value in your mind. If you believe 15/40 is possible, he’s worthy of a first round selection. If he does what he did last year, isn’t he just Brian Roberts at shortstop? In the past the speed was key with him. I think there is more speed throughout the draft this year. A couple of years ago I would have taken him first overall.

[CC's Desperados]

Originally posted by The Mighty Men:

Who is the ONE player that you think is the toughest fantasy baseball player to compete against? You know, the one guy you see in your main event league and say "oh crap". I’d have to say in my whole time in the NFBC there isn’t one player I’ve said anything like that about or thought it. There are so many good players out there. You never know who you should be avoiding. I know every player can only make one pick at a time and I enjoy the challenge. I’ve only played with Steve a couple of times. I’d rather not be in a league with someone I’m in contact with. It makes the communication tough during the year. If I had to pick one player, Steve Jupinka is the best player in the game. He’s more organized and he’s more willing to churn. David DiDonato is the most aggravating. His teams usually play well at the end of the year. He is so cheap on the waiver that he always has money left at the end of the year.

[CC's Desperados]

Originally posted by swampass:

Is morneau gold going as late as he is? or is it a trap due to concussions? the same for bay?

I’m afraid of Morneau as of today, but I think he is a deal. He will start to move up in drafts once he is on the field. I don’t know why Bay goes so late. He looks like he’s good to go. I’d draft Bay no problem, but I’ll wait on the Morneau news. What do you think went on in Canada when these players were kids? Hockey with no helmets…..

[CC's Desperados]

Originally posted by swampass:



thoughts on the left side of the baltimore infield bouncing back? have to think the camden confines help hardy and reynolds... true?

I think you know what you are getting out of Reynolds. He goes fairly priced. If you want him, you need to protect your batting average. If he hits .250, it could be a homerun. I wouldn’t want to own him with BJ Upton, Stubbs, or players with similar batting average risk. I know Hardy had a wrist problem last year, but he’s played poorly two years in row. He could have been a player on the juice. I can’t see him hitting near the top of the lineup so his upside is limited. If you are looking for some power from the middle, he has two plus season on his resume. His price point is fair. I’d draft him hoping for 15 homeruns and a neutral BA.

[CC's Desperados]

Originally posted by swampass:

[QB

i dont feel as though there a lot of sure things in the closer ranks because of age, ability, or the possibility of trades. who are some under the radar closers to look at?

[/QB]I think the instability will discount some player’s values which will help some fantasy players if they are looking for closers in certain rounds. I don’t think there are any closers under the radar. There’s too much information out there. I think JJ Putz is a top 10-15 closer. He has risk, but his insurance is cheap. I think the backup’s value is a factor sometimes. You don’t want to waste two pick inside of round 20 on the same bullpen. I’m not sure where Frank Francisco is being drafted, but he should do the job and offer plus K’s. The only closer flying under the radar is probably Hisanori Takahashi. I can’t see Rodney closing and the young kids may need a little time before decided to give them the ball. If I invested in Lyon, I might try to own Mark Melancon.

[CC's Desperados]

Originally posted by Riverdome:

In a 45 round no FAAB league what do you think a good roster breakdown would be between hitters, SP, and RP? I would want to own 19 to 20 pitchers with five or six being closer/relievers. I wouldn’t waste too many shots on closers in waiting, but I’d try to back up my closers if I could. I wrote something similar about 50 round DC’s earlier. I think five more rounds gives you one more slot for a catcher, one or two more shots for bullpen depth, and a couple of prospects.

[CC's Desperados]

Originally posted by Hells Satans:

Should I be worried about Dan Haren's reduced K rate/increased BB rate after the trade to ANA in light of the fact that the lower K rate is consistent with his Oak days? I had the same feeling earlier, but I decided I was nitpicking. He has a long enough resume to bounce back. Each year there’s players with a lot worse baggage and they seem to bounce back. I might not fight for him, but I think he’s discounted this year.



20-Dan Haren (LAA) – He really struggled pitching for Arizona last year (4.60 ERA and 1.348 whip). His HR/9 rate (1.5) spiked. He was able to right the ship after the trade to the Angels (2.87 ERA and 1.16 whip) except his BB/9 rate (2.4) rose along with a decline in his K/9 rate (7.2). His FB rate is rising and it was a career high (40.7 %). In 2009, he stopped throwing a slider. Instead he switched to a cutter/curveball combination. He’s a four pitch pitcher (split finger is his other pitch). He threw 65 % strikes for the year, but only 63 % for the Angels. Maybe they were working with him to throw one pitch less. He threw 64 % first pitch strikes, but only 59 % for LA. I don’t know what to make of it. He had better results and his HR/9 rate decline. He has a solid resume and his command has been very good in his career. His down year will push his value down on draft day. In 2009, he had Cliff Lee like command against RH batters (.71). He’ll start the year at age 30.

[CC's Desperados]

Originally posted by Bo's Bombers:

What kind of breakdown do strive to get in your first ten picks between sp, rp, and position players It would depend on your draft position and the draft flow. I’d like to have my infield covered, two OF, two SP, one CL, and a catcher. Every year you try to find an area to cheat if the inventory is short.

[CC's Desperados]

Originally posted by B&B:

1. With the PED crackdown taking down offensive numbers, is pitching becoming more valuable or do you stick with 3 bats/legs with your first 3 rounds?

I don’t think pitching is more valuable. I think there is more inventory and more owners are trying to build a base. It all depends on what you see as a trade off in round 4 or 5 if you want an elite arm. Would you rather own Matt Kemp and David Price or Roy Halladay and Jason Werth? You pick your edge.

[CC's Desperados]

Originally posted by B&B:



2. What is your strategy rounds 45-50 in a slow draft?

Usually I do them to get in tune with the draft structure. I don’t do many drafts between January and March. I would approach it the same as a regular draft, but I know the back end starting pitching will slide the further the draft is away from the start of the season. I’d avoid as much risk as possible.

[CC's Desperados]

Originally posted by B&B:





3. Any free websites that you use for prospect research?

I buy the Baseball America Prospect Handbook. If I want to look up a player I don’t know, I use minor league baseball and search the name on google.

[CC's Desperados]

Originally posted by Catch:

Hi Shawn,



Who is your early favorite?

Uncle Mo

To Honor and Serve

Dialed In

The Factor



Also, are you on the guest list for breakfast @ Imperial Palace before the draft? Who’s looking for favorites? I want the next bomb that pays big dollars. I probably won’t make the Imperial Palace. I’m afraid you will have your recording device on.

[CC's Desperados]

Originally posted by Red Sox Nation:

Shawn,



Do you treat players in a contract year any differently? Some have positive results in a contract drive (Beltre twice) and others have been impacted negatively. Your thoughts? Thanks



Jason I think about it, but I don’t think it’s a huge factor in my game planning.

[CC's Desperados]

Originally posted by Gekko:

Hellickson and Dan Hudson both ranked in my Top 10 SP last year based on value/innings pitched. I realize it's a small sample size, however, are people sleeping on these guys if they are slipping past the 10th round? I think an SP3 should go after round 10 in most cases.If you think they should go higher, they mostly are an SP2 unless a team is drafting his third pitcher early.



27-Daniel Hudson (ARI) – When Jake Peavy went down, Dan Hudson was called up. In way, he became Peavy or I should say he pitched like him when he arrived in Arizona (7-1 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.84 whip). His BB/9 rate (2.5 for the year and 1.8 in Arizona) was in line with his minor league career. His K/9 rate (7.9) was strong and his minor league resume shows more upside (10.2). He had equal success against RH (.201)and LH hitting (.203), but his command was much better against RH batters (4.09 K:BB). His LOB % (83.1) was very high which point to a step back in ERA. He’s a fly ball pitcher (45.5 %). He threw 66 % strikes and 59 % first pitch strikes. His average fastball was 92.5. His second best pitch is his changeup. He also throws a slider. He had an exciting start to his career. I like that he throw a high % of strikes from Jump Street. The FB % is a concern if his command takes a step back. All and all there’s a lot to like here. I don’t expect a 2.50 ERA, but I expect him to be an asset maybe in the 3.50 range. He’s shown the ability to strikeout batters at every level. With 200 innings, he will give you a very solid number in that area. He will be a nice upside SP3. He’ll start the year at age 24. He’s a player that should be on your radar.



32-Jeremy Hellickson (TAM) – He’s a player that is going to draw some interest this year. In the NFBC, he would be a nice upside SP3 if you have two solid arms in front of him. It’s hard to imagine him matching many SP2 just based on the amount of innings he’s going to pitch this year. He’ll be 24 when the season starts. He pitched 154 last year so it’s safe to say Tampa will let him pitch 180 inning this year. His minor league K/9 rate was 9.8 and his BB/9 rate was 2.1. Both numbers are extremely attractive and he repeated his success at the major league level. In his first 36.2 innings, he had a BB/rate of 2.0 and K/9 rate of 8.2. He had dominate command against RH batters (9.5 K:BB rate with a .154 BAA) to start his major league career. He struggled a bit with LH bats (.301 BAA – 4 HR’s allowed). He threw 64 % strikes and 64 % first pitch strikes. This is very good sign going forward. To start his major career, he allowed a very low LD rate (16 %), but a high FB (49 %) rate which led to 1.2 HR/9 rate. He’s a fastball/changeup pitcher with a solid curve. He threw a cutter a small % of the time. It may be a pitch he is developing to use against LH batters. He is a nice upside starter and I think he will be the second best starter on Tampa. It’s hard for me to think of him as a SP2 until he pitches 200 innings. He’ll need to solve his early struggles vs. LH hitters if he is going to have success against the Red Sox and Yankees.



[ February 16, 2011, 08:42 PM: Message edited by: CC's Desperados ]

[CC's Desperados]

Originally posted by la Jolla:

I know you're down on big CC a bit. He fixed the knee, dropped 25lbs, and has an opt out clause at the end of the season. Speculation is he will use it to join his pal Lee in Philly in 2012. With him motivated where do you see his upside?

On a side note...I checked out your new site vufantasybaseball, and love what i'm seeing so far....After all these years what finally got you up and running and what do you expect to offer over there? best of luck with it. He's still number 13 for me. You don't want him running any faster. He might pull a hammy. He's a top ten pitcher, but there are more than 10 pitchers worthy of being ten top pitchers. I'll let you have the Yankees.



Thanks for looking at the site. It's almost all there just a couple of kinks in the armor. Over the winter I wrote about 400 or so players and I'm working on doing a five minute video on the top 350-400 players. It's a work in progress and I'm sure we will get better. There's no retakes. If I fumble through a few words, I'll take my beatings.



The inventory stuff is kind of boring, but it's about the information. All the video content in the preseason will be supported by written content. There's a few bugs in the RSS feed, but it should be cleaned up soon.



Hopefully the full library will be up soon.

[CC's Desperados]

It looks like I'm done. That's the longest cut and paste session of my life. I hope I answer all the questions.

[751542]

nice job shawn...thanks for taking the time!

[Ryan C]

Thanks Shawn - awesome stuff as usual.

[rockitsauce]

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by rockitsauce:

Fav song of Michael Jackson's thriller? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m8z6XrjrIgQ

Because I can do the moonwalk. [/QUOTE]thx for the chat Shawn.



Surprised me on MJ, figured you as a BEAT IT kinda guy can't forget Eddie Van Halen blistering guitar solo

[Da bears]

Great chat Shawn!!

[Cocktails and Dreams]

Well done Shawn.

[MadCow Sez]

Mahalo Shawn!

[LONG GONE]

I'm late to the party. I have been reviewing your work on SP1 and SP2. You did a great job as always.



At the draft table your first 15 sp1 are gone and the first 5 sp2 are gone. You are looking to draft your 2nd pitcher. Which pitcher would you draft?