2014 Early Season Draft Results

[Edwards Kings]

Although drafting a guy based on his spring training stats can be a recipe for disaster as well!!

VERY TRUE!

So, you mean a bad spring training could generate some real "value"?

[DOUGHBOYS]

Although drafting a guy based on his spring training stats can be a recipe for disaster as well!!

VERY TRUE!

So, you mean a bad spring training could generate some real "value"?

Ha!

[Yah Mule]

I do think Abreu requires a bit of a leap of faith. Mainly because the market for Cuban players has changed. Cespedes was going in round 12 in 2012 and Puig was going in round 22 or later last year. I can certainly understand the attention he's getting. Everywhere he's played - the Cuban National Series, the PanAm Games, the World Baseball Classic - he has crushed the ball. The people who doubt him question his bat speed and they believe he will struggle against hard stuff inside. What little video I've seen of him, I don't see lazy hands, but I'll never work as a major league scout, either.

I do understand when people cite a different drafting philosophy depending on the league in question. It does seem like your risk aversion might be a bit lower in a $150 DC league, but there are perennial first rounders who carry the label of injury prone. I believe all drafters have a certain amount of risk they're comfortable with assuming in any given draft. Examine the draft board ten rounds into any draft. Drafter A is a big proponent of risk aversion in the early rounds and his draft reflects that philosophy. Mostly guys with proven track records and clean injury histories. Drafter B, on the other hand, has a nucleus full of young players and guys returning from injury. Drafter A thinks Drafter B is crazy to gamble so much. Drafter B believes he's researched three year player histories on his injured vets and detailed scouting reports on his young players and he is convinced he's accumulating draft value far exceeding his competitors, especially Drafter A.

[Gekko]

Given a 600AB basis, here is what the Gekko Supercomputer spits out for Harper and Abreu's upside projections...

Harper
AB 600
R 113
HR 49
RBI 103
SB 37
AVG .314

Abreu
AB 600
R 95
HR 42
RBI 104
SB 0
AVG .332

[ikenbaseball]

Gekko

I think your computer has a virus.

Krys

[Gekko]

[ikenbaseball]

Why do I believe you?
But seriously. You should check your connections after seeing those last projections.


Krys

[TOXIC ASSETS]

In this new 'dead ball' era, post steroid, and pitcher dominated, there's no way Harper hits 49 home runs. 30 HR's and a .300 batting average - OK.

Abreau - no clue. 42 HR's might actually be possible.

[Gekko]

remember, those were the upside projections

[BK METS]

Given a 600AB basis, here is what the Gekko Supercomputer spits out for Harper and Abreu's upside projections...

Harper
AB 600
R 113
HR 49
RBI 103
SB 37
AVG .314

Abreu
AB 600
R 95
HR 42
RBI 104
SB 0
AVG .332

Neither of these are realistic, although Harper's are more reachable, in my opinion.

[BK METS]

Yes, crapping on somebody who drafts Harper sixth Overall is much better use of time.

Crapping on that pick was my honest opinion which was what Greg asked for after he posted the results and said "Thoughts?"
You said you're "trying to" understand where I'm coming from "but not wanting to" - so why waste your time trying?

Look, I used to know it all too. At one time of our lives, we all did.

You act like you still do.

In your mind, Tulo was more attractive at eight,

WRONG! I was disappointed that I didn't get to take Hanley at 8 but he went 6th and my plan for that draft was to take three high end SS with my first three picks. Crap on that if you want but I stuck to my plan.

while crack is involved in thinking about Harper at six.
I don't get it, but like said before, I don't want to.

You know how to stop, so please don't let me stop you.

Making friends again, I see. I had actually thought you had turned a corner... Obviously you want to stir the pot, and that is fine, since making friends isn't necessarily the recipe for winning, but one thing I have learned... NONE of us claim to know everything and most of these guys on these boards are pretty good guys to know and learn from. But, obviously everyone has their own agenda and I get why you don't really care who you anger. It just seems interesting, coming from the guy who has drafted as horribly as one can draft, in my opinion, in the 3 leagues I have seen. Keep talking... it makes for interesting conversation and much needed comedy.

[BK METS]

Harper at 6th overall?

I think we just discovered the identity of Anonymous:
Toronto Mayor Rob Ford, welcome to the NFBC.

Really no shock at 6, if someone really wants him. I have already drafted him in the first round of a few DCs and would gladly take him again.

Question for you is: Did you draft him at pick 6 or higher? Would you?

I could see picking him at 12 or later in the first round, if you really wanted him and didn't think he'd last until your pick in round 2 (where he probably belongs).

I have been in 3 DC drafts so far. I had the 13th pick in the first draft, and picked Bryce Harper. I had the 1st pick in the second draft and didn't choose Bryce Harper. I had the 7th pick in the most recent DC, and if it wasn't for Andrew McCutchen being there for me, I would have picked Bryce. But he didn't last long, as Bryce Harper went 8th overall (to a recent overall champion).

[Brock]

Harper is a sexy pick because of his tremendous upside. At some point in his career if he's blessed with good health he and Trout will be talked about and compared like Mantle and Mays.

[ikenbaseball]

Yes. Mays=Trout. But I still can't understand all the hype over Harper.

The guy is a career 272 hitter. Averaged 21 hr. Hit 214 vs lefties last year. He is not a good base stealer.
And I don't care how old he is. He's a borderline 2nd round pick until I see otherwise.


Krys

[Baseball Furies]

Yes, crapping on somebody who drafts Harper sixth Overall is much better use of time.

Crapping on that pick was my honest opinion which was what Greg asked for after he posted the results and said "Thoughts?"
You said you're "trying to" understand where I'm coming from "but not wanting to" - so why waste your time trying?

Look, I used to know it all too. At one time of our lives, we all did.

You act like you still do.

In your mind, Tulo was more attractive at eight,

WRONG! I was disappointed that I didn't get to take Hanley at 8 but he went 6th and my plan for that draft was to take three high end SS with my first three picks. Crap on that if you want but I stuck to my plan.

while crack is involved in thinking about Harper at six.
I don't get it, but like said before, I don't want to.

You know how to stop, so please don't let me stop you.

Making friends again, I see. I had actually thought you had turned a corner... Obviously you want to stir the pot, and that is fine, since making friends isn't necessarily the recipe for winning, but one thing I have learned... NONE of us claim to know everything and most of these guys on these boards are pretty good guys to know and learn from. But, obviously everyone has their own agenda and I get why you don't really care who you anger. It just seems interesting, coming from the guy who has drafted as horribly as one can draft, in my opinion, in the 3 leagues I have seen. Keep talking... it makes for interesting conversation and much needed comedy.

Alan,
What you have to understand is that Gekko is a the pure definition of a "has been". His glory days from the infancy of the NFBC are long over. He now simply makes a living by playing the percentages and primarily preying on the more novice population of players of the NFBC by taking advantage of them and bullying them over the course of about 30 DC's or so per year so that he can look smart and heroic after the fact when he wins. You will never see him take on the big boys for the big money and win anymore, because he can't and he won't. So all that he has left is to attempt to bait people on these boards by being controversial or occasionally outlandish to get the attention he so sorely craves from his peers who he secretly wishes he could compete against and beat, but doesn't and can't. And that's all I have to say about that.

[Bama]

Given a 600AB basis, here is what the Gekko Supercomputer spits out for Harper and Abreu's upside projections...

Harper
AB 600
R 113
HR 49
RBI 103
SB 37
AVG .314

Abreu
AB 600
R 95
HR 42
RBI 104
SB 0
AVG .332

Translation> Mark thinks these guys are not going to produce any where close to where the're being drafted and the guys taking them are idiots.

[BK METS]

Alan,
What you have to understand is that Gekko is a the pure definition of a "has been". His glory days from the infancy of the NFBC are long over. He now simply makes a living by playing the percentages and primarily preying on the more novice population of players of the NFBC by taking advantage of them and bullying them over the course of about 30 DC's or so per year so that he can look smart and heroic after the fact when he wins. You will never see him take on the big boys for the big money and win anymore, because he can't and he won't. So all that he has left is to attempt to bait people on these boards by being controversial or occasionally outlandish to get the attention he so sorely craves from his peers who he secretly wishes he could compete against and beat, but doesn't and can't. And that's all I have to say about that.

Actually, I wasn't talking about Gekko.. just the Gekko wannabe...

[Deadheadz]

Harper
AB 600
R 113
HR 49
RBI 103
SB 37
AVG .314

"Proven Player"
AB 600
R 97
HR 35
RBI 118
SB 5
AVG .310

The "Proven Player" numbers are pro-rated from 518 AB in 2013 to the 600 AB bar set by your example. The Upside hype puts Harper in the 1st round while the Proven Player goes in early round 6 by current ADP.

Where's the love for Big Papi? Nope, you guys all want the "upside" of an unproven Harper.

I'll say it again, "Best of luck to Bryce Harper and his owners. In my opinion, you'll need it."


Cheers!

[Deadheadz]

while crack is involved in thinking about Harper at six.

I was using Rob Ford as an example of highly questionable judgement, "crack" is a word you've inferred...very nicely too.

it makes for interesting conversation and much needed comedy.

Now your using your head, Alan.

The best way to breathe life into a stagnant forum thread is to start tossing hand grenades. As soon as the topic changed to Abreau, there was really no need to continue posting so I just sat back and watched.

So you really think the team I drafted in the DC Express was "as bad as one can draft" ?

[Greg Ambrosius]

We are starting two more new Draft Champions Leagues, so let's keep up with a couple of recent results. Here's the latest one:

NFBC Draft Champions League
Round 1:
1 1 Mike Trout CF
1 2 Miguel Cabrera 1B
1 3 Paul Goldschmidt 1B
1 4 Chris Davis 1B
1 5 Andrew McCutchen CF
1 6 Clayton Kershaw SP
1 7 Prince Fielder 1B
1 8 Adam Jones CF
1 9 Hanley Ramirez SS
1 10 Carlos Gonzalez LF
1 11 Jacoby Ellsbury CF
1 12 Ryan Braun RF
1 13 Robinson Cano 2B
1 14 Troy Tulowitzki SS
1 15 Bryce Harper LF

Round 2:
2 1 Joey Votto 1B
2 2 Edwin Encarnacion 1B
2 3 Yu Darvish SP
2 4 David Wright 3B
2 5 Adrian Beltre 3B
2 6 Jean Segura SS
2 7 Carlos Gomez CF
2 8 Jason Kipnis 2B
2 9 Evan Longoria 3B
2 10 Yasiel Puig RF
2 11 Adam Wainwright SP
2 12 Max Scherzer SP
2 13 Freddie Freeman 1B
2 14 Jay Bruce RF
2 15 Giancarlo Stanton RF

Round 3:
3 1 Dustin Pedroia 2B
3 2 Albert Pujols 1B
3 3 Ian Desmond SS
3 4 Allen Craig 1B
3 5 Eric Hosmer 1B
3 6 Jose Reyes SS
3 7 Justin Upton LF
3 8 Alex Rios RF
3 9 Shin-Soo Choo CF
3 10 Buster Posey C
3 11 Jose Fernandez SP
3 12 Stephen Strasburg SP
3 13 Jose Bautista RF
3 14 Cliff Lee SP
3 15 Felix Hernandez SP

Round 4:
4 1 Starling Marte LF
4 2 Hunter Pence RF
4 3 Matt Kemp CF
4 4 Matt Holliday LF
4 5 Madison Bumgarner SP
4 6 Matt Carpenter 2B
4 7 Yoenis Cespedes LF
4 8 Chris Sale SP
4 9 Kenley Jansen MR
4 10 Craig Kimbrel MR
4 11 Ryan Zimmerman 3B
4 12 Greg Holland MR
4 13 Mark Trumbo 1B
4 14 Elvis Andrus SS
4 15 Adrian Gonzalez 1B

Round 5:
5 1 Cole Hamels SP
5 2 Zack Greinke SP
5 3 Billy Hamilton CF
5 4 Jedd Gyorko 2B
5 5 David Price SP
5 6 Josh Donaldson 3B
5 7 Jason Heyward RF
5 8 Wil Myers RF
5 9 Carlos Santana C
5 10 Ian Kinsler 2B
5 11 Aroldis Chapman MR
5 12 Justin Verlander SP
5 13 Wilin Rosario C
5 14 Ben Zobrist 2B
5 15 Joe Mauer C

Round 6:
6 1 Pedro Alvarez 3B
6 2 Jonathan Lucroy C
6 3 Josh Hamilton RF
6 4 Trevor Rosenthal MR
6 5 Yadier Molina C
6 6 Anibal Sanchez SP
6 7 David Ortiz DH
6 8 Brian McCann C
6 9 Gerrit Cole SP
6 10 Salvador Perez C
6 11 Koji Uehara MR
6 12 Everth Cabrera SS
6 13 Brandon Phillips 2B
6 14 Jose Altuve 2B
6 15 Carlos Beltran RF

Thoughts?

[Greg Ambrosius]

Here's one more to start the day. Enjoy.

NFBC Draft Champions League
Round 1:
1 1 Mike Trout CF
1 2 Miguel Cabrera 1B
1 3 Clayton Kershaw SP
1 4 Paul Goldschmidt 1B
1 5 Andrew McCutchen CF
1 6 Carlos Gonzalez LF
1 7 Chris Davis 1B
1 8 Adam Jones CF
1 9 Robinson Cano 2B
1 10 Bryce Harper LF
1 11 Jacoby Ellsbury CF
1 12 Ryan Braun RF
1 13 Jason Kipnis 2B
1 14 Prince Fielder 1B
1 15 Hanley Ramirez SS

Round 2:
2 1 Evan Longoria 3B
2 2 Adrian Beltre 3B
2 3 Yu Darvish SP
2 4 Joey Votto 1B
2 5 Troy Tulowitzki SS
2 6 Giancarlo Stanton RF
2 7 Edwin Encarnacion 1B
2 8 David Wright 3B
2 9 Carlos Gomez CF
2 10 Freddie Freeman 1B
2 11 Yasiel Puig RF
2 12 Max Scherzer SP
2 13 Alex Rios RF
2 14 Jean Segura SS
2 15 Jose Reyes SS

Round 3:
3 1 Stephen Strasburg SP
3 2 Craig Kimbrel MR
3 3 Jay Bruce RF
3 4 Ian Desmond SS
3 5 Jose Fernandez SP
3 6 Dustin Pedroia 2B
3 7 Hunter Pence RF
3 8 Cliff Lee SP
3 9 Adam Wainwright SP
3 10 Jose Bautista RF
3 11 Madison Bumgarner SP
3 12 Wil Myers RF
3 13 Matt Carpenter 2B
3 14 Shin-Soo Choo CF
3 15 Albert Pujols 1B

Round 4:
4 1 Felix Hernandez SP
4 2 Chris Sale SP
4 3 Kenley Jansen MR
4 4 Carlos Santana C
4 5 Eric Hosmer 1B
4 6 David Price SP
4 7 Buster Posey C
4 8 Joe Mauer C
4 9 Mark Trumbo 1B
4 10 Ryan Zimmerman 3B
4 11 Matt Kemp CF
4 12 Starling Marte LF
4 13 Matt Holliday LF
4 14 Aroldis Chapman MR
4 15 Adrian Gonzalez 1B

Round 5:
5 1 Justin Upton LF
5 2 Wilin Rosario C
5 3 Elvis Andrus SS
5 4 Justin Verlander SP
5 5 Zack Greinke SP
5 6 Greg Holland MR
5 7 Allen Craig 1B
5 8 Jason Heyward RF
5 9 Yoenis Cespedes LF
5 10 Cole Hamels SP
5 11 Pedro Alvarez 3B
5 12 Everth Cabrera SS
5 13 Yadier Molina C
5 14 Jonathan Lucroy C
5 15 Josh Hamilton RF

Round 6:
6 1 Billy Hamilton CF
6 2 Mike Minor SP
6 3 Jose Altuve 2B
6 4 Brian McCann C
6 5 Gerrit Cole SP
6 6 Ian Kinsler 2B
6 7 David Ortiz DH
6 8 Anthony Rizzo 1B
6 9 Josh Donaldson 3B
6 10 Salvador Perez C
6 11 Anibal Sanchez SP
6 12 Trevor Rosenthal MR
6 13 Koji Uehara MR
6 14 Masahiro Tanaka SP
6 15 Jordan Zimmermann SP

Thoughts?

[Edwards Kings]

Glad the Abreu generated some good (great) content.

How about a first rounder that I am struggling with. Sure...SS...good team...contract year...once had really good numbers. Has had more than 350 AB only once in the last three years. Yet he is going high. Of course it is Hanley Ramirez. According to one of the roto-sites that will remain nameless, Ramirez ended last season with a fractured rib and a nerve problem in his back, but they're no longer issues (right!). He went through a back-strengthening program over the winter to address the nerve issue.

And he is a first rounder? More risky than Tulo? What a huge gamble, especially in the first round, or is it just me?

[Deadheadz]

We are starting two more new Draft Champions Leagues, so let's keep up with a couple of recent results. Here's the latest one:

NFBC Draft Champions League
Round 1:
1 1 Mike Trout CF
1 2 Miguel Cabrera 1B
1 3 Paul Goldschmidt 1B
1 4 Chris Davis 1B
1 5 Andrew McCutchen CF
1 6 Clayton Kershaw SP
1 7 Prince Fielder 1B
1 8 Adam Jones CF
1 9 Hanley Ramirez SS
1 10 Carlos Gonzalez LF
1 11 Jacoby Ellsbury CF
1 12 Ryan Braun RF
1 13 Robinson Cano 2B
1 14 Troy Tulowitzki SS
1 15 Bryce Harper LF

Harper at 15?
Value!

[BK METS]

while crack is involved in thinking about Harper at six.

I was using Rob Ford as an example of highly questionable judgement, "crack" is a word you've inferred...very nicely too.

it makes for interesting conversation and much needed comedy.

Now your using your head, Alan.

The best way to breathe life into a stagnant forum thread is to start tossing hand grenades. As soon as the topic changed to Abreau, there was really no need to continue posting so I just sat back and watched.

So you really think the team I drafted in the DC Express was "as bad as one can draft" ?

I won't expose your picks. Although I have no class, I do respect someone's privacy. If you want to share your thoughts on your brilliant draft, go right ahead. And actually from here on out, I am not wasting my time on getting into message board back and forth with someone who has proved he can talk, but thus far, has shown he still belongs in yahoo leagues. Agree with Dan.. complete waste of my time. Good luck with your teams.

[Deadheadz]

I won't expose your picks. Although I have no class, I do respect someone's privacy. If you want to share your thoughts on your brilliant draft, go right ahead. And actually from here on out, I am not wasting my time on getting into message board back and forth with someone who has proved he can talk, but thus far, has shown he still belongs in yahoo leagues. Agree with Dan.. complete waste of my time. Good luck with your teams.

Apparently everything is either black or white to you. I asked if you really thought my team was as bad as you implied (wanting your honest opinion) and you take that to mean I think I had a "brilliant" draft. Far from it. That first DC Express was packed with some of the best NFBC vets around and I was lucky to have that experience.

One if the most fun parts of fantasy sports is debating picks...until guys like you and Dan take things too personally and start calling your opponents "idiot" (not just me) or other non-game related insults.

Don't want to waste your time? Great, thanks. No one wants to see your insults. Your doing a disservice to the growth of NFBC by showing all the newbies how they'll be treated if they dare to disagree with you. I can understand why you'd rather be a big fish in a small pond than just another fish in the huge lake NFBC is becoming.

Good luck to you as well.