I've Got The 12th Pick In Tonight's Mastersball.com Draft

[Greg Ambrosius]

I think you both did a good job. Some of the other picks are just strange.

It's almost impossible for Sandoval/Jennings to return value at 30/31

Tommy Hanson?

Martin Prado?

Gene McCaffrey, an NFBC Charter Member, took Jennings at 31. I had already made up my mind to jump on him in the fourth round, knowing that he's been going 55-60 in most recent NFBC Slow Drafts. I thought taking him at 49 would be smart and get me the steals I wanted. Gene trumped us all by taking him at 3.1. I wasn't going in at 3.12, but definitely 4.4.

I'm going to write this week's column on Jennings, Darvish, Cespedes, Josh Riddick and others who seem to be interesting picks right now on Draft Day. Should be a fun writeup.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Interesting draft, but pretty typical for an expert draft. Completely non-representative of drafts you'll see here.

I think we've come a long way in these industry drafts. In the early days they were called Expert Leagues because you had the top industry "writers" making their predictions within a mock draft. But I think the NFBC has taught us all that the writers can't hold a candle to full-time fantasy players that we have here. Nothing against the industry writers who can get it done here, but admittedly even I don't spend as much time analyzing MLB players like some of you guys do so I'm far from any "expert" in this space. You folks are.

And those of us who compete in these drafts know that. The good thing with this group, though, is that many of these guys have already identified their studs, aces, sleepers, top rookies, etc., and draft accordingly. Since these guys are going to push their guys on their web sites this year, it's good to see who guys like Gene and Jeff Erickson and Scott Pianowski and others are touting. You may not agree with them and you may laugh at them now, but at the end of the year they may be right.

Like Todd said, Ron took Ryan Braun 2nd overall in last January's FSTA Draft and everyone made fun of him. He was spot on and I think he won that league title. He stuck to his convictions and was right. Maybe some of these guys will be right with their earlier picks than we're seeing in the NFBC now. All I know is that I hope I was right last night.

[DOUGHBOYS]

I think you both did a good job. Some of the other picks are just strange.

It's almost impossible for Sandoval/Jennings to return value at 30/31

Tommy Hanson?

Martin Prado?

Hanson's gone anywhere from the sixth round to 12th round in drafts. Remember, he was a top flight pitcher before being shut down last year. Depending on your risk taking tolerance, sixth to 12th round is about right.

[Edwards Kings]

Cant believe Prado went so high, I just got him in the 11th round of a 15 team slow draft here. Wowza.

Maybe some of the drafters were using last year's spreadsheets.

It is TBF ("Third Base Fever"). Last year the carrier was Casey McGehee. Take two Longos and call me in the morning.

[NorCalAtlFan]

I think you both did a good job. Some of the other picks are just strange.

It's almost impossible for Sandoval/Jennings to return value at 30/31

Tommy Hanson?

Martin Prado?

Hanson's gone anywhere from the sixth round to 12th round in drafts. Remember, he was a top flight pitcher before being shut down last year. Depending on your risk taking tolerance, sixth to 12th round is about right.

who took him in the 6th Dan? was it anonymous again? i know, wrong, but it's still fun.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Cant believe Prado went so high, I just got him in the 11th round of a 15 team slow draft here. Wowza.

Maybe some of the drafters were using last year's spreadsheets.

It is TBF ("Third Base Fever"). Last year the carrier was Casey McGehee. Take two Longos and call me in the morning.

TBF really struck last night and I must say I didn't catch it. At the end of the draft, however, I had the worst third baseman (Pedro Alvarez) and I may live to regret it. But should I have jumped any of these third basemen? I don't know. The price was mighty steep and it just kept getting steeper as the draft went on. I had other holes to fill!!!

Actually I was hoping for Freese in the 9th or Moustakas in the 10th and screwed up when I couldn't find Moustakas. That would have made me happy if I had gotten him a 10.4.

Here's where all of the third basemen went last night:
Jose Bautista: 1st round, pick 4 (1.4)
Evan Longoria (1.10)
Ryan Zimmerman (2.7)
David Wright (2.11)
Adrian Beltre (2.14)
Pablo Sandoval (2.15)
Aramis Ramirez (3.14)
Alex Rodriguez (4.5)
Michael Young (4.10)
Kevin Youkilis (4.13)
Brett Lawrie (4.14)
Martin Prado (5.13)
Mark Reynolds (7.5)
Edwin Encarnacion (8.5)
David Freese 8.8
Mike Moustakas (10.12)
Daniel Murphy (13.3)
Chase Headley (14.9)

Okay, who among this group is undervalued? Did anyone get a bargain here?

[DOUGHBOYS]

Wright comes the closest to a bargain.
The rest all overpaid for 'Cabbage Patch Dolls' fearing they'd run out and be stuck with getting their kid a Barbie.
I don't know if Alvarez is the answer, but the price was right on him.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Wright comes the closest to a bargain.
The rest all overpaid for 'Cabbage Patch Dolls' fearing they'd run out and be stuck with getting their kid a Barbie.
I don't know if Alvarez is the answer, but the price was right on him.

My Cabbage Patch Doll was Pedro Alvarez: 19th round, 12th pick. I was going to go with Mat Gamel because I really believe he will start at 1B in Milwaukee and do okay. But I've had Alvarez in the XFL Keeper League for 3 years now and I believe the Pirates haven't given up on him. He's working out in Los Angeles rather than play winter ball and hopefully he comes to camp in shape and focused on using his skills to rebuild his career. He's young enough to come through the Sophomore Slump and excel. And like you said, for the 19th round it was worth it to build in other areas, like a strong pitching staff. We'll see, I guess.

[Pitch12]

Wright comes the closest to a bargain.
The rest all overpaid for 'Cabbage Patch Dolls' fearing they'd run out and be stuck with getting their kid a Barbie.
I don't know if Alvarez is the answer, but the price was right on him.

My Cabbage Patch Doll was Pedro Alvarez: 19th round, 12th pick. I was going to go with Mat Gamel because I really believe he will start at 1B in Milwaukee and do okay. But I've had Alvarez in the XFL Keeper League for 3 years now and I believe the Pirates haven't given up on him. He's working out in Los Angeles rather than play winter ball and hopefully he comes to camp in shape and focused on using his skills to rebuild his career. He's young enough to come through the Sophomore Slump and excel. And like you said, for the 19th round it was worth it to build in other areas, like a strong pitching staff. We'll see, I guess.

I like waiting on a 3B if you dont get someone in the 4th round. I don't particularly like Alvarez, but if you pair him up with someone like Chisenhall/Gamel/Morel, all you need is the combo to put up like a .275/17/75 and you are fine.

[Captain Hook]

I really like Moose Tacos at that price

[Hells Satans]

I'd rather wait and take Chipper Jones and Rolen (combined, they should be healthy for at least 120 games of the season) and someone like Ryan Roberts (where did he go?) or Freese

[DOUGHBOYS]

I'd rather wait and take Chipper Jones and Rolen (combined, they should be healthy for at least 120 games of the season) and someone like Ryan Roberts (where did he go?) or Freese

Freese went 8-8.
Folks are betting on playoff numbers.
He is 29, yet never had over 350 at bats in a regular season.
That, is scary.

[ToddZ]

I like waiting on a 3B if you dont get someone in the 4th round. I don't particularly like Alvarez, but if you pair him up with someone like Chisenhall/Gamel/Morel, all you need is the combo to put up like a .275/17/75 and you are fine.

Except if that is what could be reasonably expected from these guys, they would not be available late.

[Hells Satans]

I'd rather wait and take Chipper Jones and Rolen (combined, they should be healthy for at least 120 games of the season) and someone like Ryan Roberts (where did he go?) or Freese

Freese went 8-8.
Folks are betting on playoff numbers.
He is 29, yet never had over 350 at bats in a regular season.
That, is scary.

Yeah, I don't really like Freese, especially not at 8-8. Couldn't tell whether he wasnt listed because wasnt picked till later.

Edit: Of course, I could have just read the post and saw that he was listed.

[Edwards Kings]

Youk I think is the bargain (though he will not be on my team this year as he burned me last year). All he has to do is stay healthy and produce 525+ AB, something he has not done since 2008. Still, he is a great rebound candidate and could give you the same as Sandoval or Beltre.

[whipsaw]

Holy crap EE in the mid-8th... his actual adp isn't within a country mile of that. Does that mean that I got value?

[rockitsauce]

[Here's where all of the third basemen went last night:
Jose Bautista: 1st round, pick 4 (1.4)
Evan Longoria (1.10)
Ryan Zimmerman (2.7)
David Wright (2.11)
Adrian Beltre (2.14)
Pablo Sandoval (2.15)
Aramis Ramirez (3.14)
Alex Rodriguez (4.5)
Michael Young (4.10)
Kevin Youkilis (4.13)
Brett Lawrie (4.14)
Martin Prado (5.13)
Mark Reynolds (7.5)
Edwin Encarnacion (8.5)
David Freese 8.8
Mike Moustakas (10.12)
Daniel Murphy (13.3)
Chase Headley (14.9)

Okay, who among this group is undervalued? Did anyone get a bargain here?

There's been alot of talk about Brett Lawrie. In THIS draft I think he was a good pick. ALL of the other guys were gone. Some folks were touting him before RZimm, ARod, Youk, Pablo, MYoung, which I would not do. I think he slots in perfectly there. Not a fan of ARam in 3rd, love Moose in the 10th

[swampass]

there seems to be a lot of love for Moustakas.. not sure why. he had 1 brutal month, 1 month with a decent avg and no production and then he had a great september.

not sure im buying in as his supporting cast is truly unknown. you are counting on gordon doing it again, hosmer not having that 2nd year slump and then there are a bunch of dudes. still say that moustakas is 1 if not 2 years away, but i hope this lovefest continues and he scorches up the boards and draft sheets.

as we continue to talk 3rd base.. anyone have thoughts on Casey McG? he only has pedro alvarez and perhaps garret jones ahead of him at 3rd and 1st... thats if the mighty derek lee doesnt come back. seems like a good bet for an opportunity.

[Hells Satans]

i think he has Joe Randa-like upside

[Greg Ambrosius]

there seems to be a lot of love for Moustakas.. not sure why. he had 1 brutal month, 1 month with a decent avg and no production and then he had a great september.

not sure im buying in as his supporting cast is truly unknown. you are counting on gordon doing it again, hosmer not having that 2nd year slump and then there are a bunch of dudes. still say that moustakas is 1 if not 2 years away, but i hope this lovefest continues and he scorches up the boards and draft sheets.

as we continue to talk 3rd base.. anyone have thoughts on Casey McG? he only has pedro alvarez and perhaps garret jones ahead of him at 3rd and 1st... thats if the mighty derek lee doesnt come back. seems like a good bet for an opportunity.

Moustakas at the end of Round 10 doesn't seem like a lovefest to me. If he goes around pick 150 it seems about right for a guy who struggled mightily. The nice September isn't causing the love, it's the talent we saw in the minors and expected to see in the majors. Remember, at this time last year everyone was talking about Moustakas coming up in May and making an impact with the Royals. Instead it was Hosmer. Now Hosmer is going in the 3rd round and Moustakas is going in the 10th round. I like the upside with Moustakas and think there's value to be had down there. I don't expect Hosmer-like numbers, but it sure wouldn't surprise me if he has a steady year.

As for the Royals, they have a lot of good, young talent coming up. This is going to be a fun organization to follow over the next 10 years if injuries and free agency don't wipe things out. I think you're going to see an exciting team here this year and for years to come.

As for Casey McGahee, all you had to do was watch him in the second half last year and realize he's either in the biggest funk of his life or his skills just aren't there. Pitchers have figured him out. He swings at fastballs outside and is behind all of them. I'm not buying a comeback at all this year. If it happens, good. But I don't see it happening no matter who he has to beat out for playing time. He was lost for much of the year and just plain bad.

[rockitsauce]

there seems to be a lot of love for Moustakas.. not sure why. he had 1 brutal month, 1 month with a decent avg and no production and then he had a great september.

not sure im buying in as his supporting cast is truly unknown. you are counting on gordon doing it again, hosmer not having that 2nd year slump and then there are a bunch of dudes. still say that moustakas is 1 if not 2 years away, but i hope this lovefest continues and he scorches up the boards and draft sheets.

as we continue to talk 3rd base.. anyone have thoughts on Casey McG? he only has pedro alvarez and perhaps garret jones ahead of him at 3rd and 1st... thats if the mighty derek lee doesnt come back. seems like a good bet for an opportunity.

I can understand not wanting to get on the Moustakas Bandwagon, but in the same post you bring up Casey McGehee

"a good bet for an opportunity", wouldn't Moustakas fit that criteria? shoot man, if all we want are opportunities I'm sure the Astros have a 3B too. I imagine the A's will need one of those as well. oh, and the Pirates would be WAY better off w/ DLee at 1B than McGehee anywhere.

[swampass]

fair enough.. i was more talking about everyone calling out Moustakas.. not where he has been drafted. certainly the pedigree is there... and i agree that KC is young and up and coming, but they are young and yet to accomplish anything.

solid point on McG.. but alvarez was a complete mess last year and garret jones came back to reality. so if McG is just half the guy that he was the year before i see him eating into PT unless d lee comes back or unless alvarez pulls his head out of his behind. i guess the size of his behind and gut will go a long way in telling us if the kid has come to play this year.

McG's sept was brutal but he did have 6 hrs 20rbi and a 260 avg in august. not earth shattering but at least interesting...

[Hells Satans]

McGeeheeheehee hits too many GBs for a fat guy. Also, probably about a 15% HR reduction for RHB moving from Mil. to Pit.

[swampass]

I can understand not wanting to get on the Moustakas Bandwagon, but in the same post you bring up Casey McGehee

"a good bet for an opportunity", wouldn't Moustakas fit that criteria? shoot man, if all we want are opportunities I'm sure the Astros have a 3B too. I imagine the A's will need one of those as well. oh, and the Pirates would be WAY better off w/ DLee at 1B than McGehee anywhere.[/quote]


actually. i mentioned McG since we were talking 3b and since i know that greg knows the brew crew like the back of his hand.. chill out bro. its early on.. we have no idea who will be playing where. jesus.. it was a question.

now get off your "i know everything about everybody" high horse....and if you must know.. i wont draft that piece of crap retread derek lee.. he had a "good" year last year and it was hardly better than the worst baseball player in the majors.. casey mcgehee.

[Rog]

looking at your 12th spot choices compared to other slow drafts right now
upton --- longo---- upton ------ - upton ---- --- granderson -- upton
kinsler--- tex ---- granderson -- mccutcheon-- holiday -- - - hamilton
c lee --- - bj ------ cruz ------- - haren ---- --- pence ------- bourn
v mart--- v mar----t price ------ kimbrel -- --- m young -- - grienke
gallardo-- youk ---- philips ---- - a gordon -- --- bourn -- - - reynolds
zorilla--- pineda --- gio gonzo -- montero -- -- posey -- --- kimbrel

people like upton at 12
if going for 2 good outfielders to start a late draft pick is the way to go
4 of them grabbed an early round catcher
4 of them took at least 2 pitchers
I wonder which path is the correct one?
I think Greg's team is as good a start as any of the other 5
I dont know if that is good or bad?