Edwards Kings Weekly Blog

[headhunters]

rule #1 in sports betting= the masses are asses. probably true here also. we shall see.

[Captain Hook]

rule #1 in sports betting= the masses are asses. probably true here also. we shall see.

NOT the same at all............because everyone wants Halladay or Verlander they are wrong? Horse Puckey

Trolling for saves is a required course of action from those who won't/didn't overpay for them in the draft/auction OR who happened to lose a closer (Madson, Soria, Farnsworth, Storen, Wilson)
Doesn't mean every attempt will be on target but the hunt must continue

[headhunters]

we ain't talking haladay- he isn't on the waiver wire. the point- just because 600 or 6 million people think something is right does not now or ever make it correct. now go back to your flat earth meeting.

[Jeff Erickson]

Well Wisdom of the Crowd suggests otherwise
23 teams FAABed Casilla this week
The average winning bid was $295
Only a luck five teams (including Jupinka I think) got him for less than 25% of their starting budge
Eight teams spent more than one-third of their $1000

But isn't this in part because Romo was already owned in most leagues? I think that the bidding on Casilla would have been a lot more tame had we had the choice between he and Romo. Now, I think that Romo's fragility is going to force Casilla into a lot of save chances, but I also think it's somewhat telling that Casilla pitched 1.2 innings in a tie game Saturday, while Romo didn't pitch.

[Edwards Kings]

Perhaps it is as simple as three things to consider:

1) How many saves can you reasonably consider Casilla will get given SF has multiple options and are those saves worth 25% or 30% of your FA budget?
2) Is SF the only team that has closer issues and does spending this much on Casilla constrict your future closer opportunities given the season is so fresh (opportunity cost #1)? If you, like me, do NOT go after a Casilla at this time, you are taking a risk that better choices will appear early enough to matter.
3) After spending so much FA budget at the beginning of the second week, are you limiting your team's opportunities to improve in other pitching or offensive areas when the next Hosmer comes up (opportunity cost #2)?

It is all about your risk assessment. I am in the camp (maybe the wrong one) that does not feel Casilla is not worth the risk. I admit I want the two in the bush.

[Glenneration X]

In a typical year, Casilla would not have gone for nearly as much as he universally did this past Sunday. He hasn't even been named the closer, he hasn't gotten a save opportunity, the manager has stated that this will be a closer by committee, his usage immediately following the Wilson news indicated that he wouldn't get the first save chance, and there are other reasonable options for the role (even better ones) in that bullpen or in the minors. Casilla is still only a "speculative" pick at this point and speculative picks at closer have typically gone for far less in the past than he did.

What this cost comes down to is a series of events and circumstance that led to the jacking up of his price. The utter devastation of the closer ranks in the pre and early season created a demand even desperation in some to reinforce the position, noone wants to boot a category that they hadn't planned on booting in only the 2nd week of the season, the increased cost of the Santiago's and Rodney's and Broxton's and Lidge's and HRod's, etc., etc. set an extremely recent market value for the position that is very fresh in our minds, those who have a need at the position but missed out on those mentioned above because they were surprised at the cost last week have gotten a near immediate chance at redemption and therefore likely increased what they would typically bid, and just about every one of us had all or most of their FAAB still remaining in pocket to utilize. Mostly, it came down to supply and demand. The unbelievable amount of early season injuries created the increased demand for many, yet Casilla was the only "closer" available. All this led to a perfect storm of conditions for the pricing of Casilla on Sunday.

If I had a need as desperate as I know many feel right now, I likely would have been right there in the bidding.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Another factor is the Roto updates. They are pinpointing Casilla. His name above all was the name that they put out there.
The Roto guesses were wrong all off season, and I wouldn't be surprised if they are wrong in this case.
Currently, they are wearing Brandon Belt cheer leading outfits and throw a tantrum any time he is not in the lineup.
They are great for updates, but their opinions should be taken for what they are, opinions.

[Outlaw]

Another factor is the Roto updates. They are pinpointing Casilla. His name above all was the name that they put out there.
The Roto guesses were wrong all off season, and I wouldn't be surprised if they are wrong in this case.
Currently, they are wearing Brandon Belt cheer leading outfits and throw a tantrum any time he is not in the lineup.
They are great for updates, but their opinions should be taken for what they are, opinions.

Exactly right Dough...! Opinions, Opinions, Opinions, they are all over the internet by the so called experts. I personnaly rely more than anything on what I think first and what the numbers tell me and to a lesser degree, scouts and contacts I repsect.

[Glenneration X]

Another factor is the Roto updates. They are pinpointing Casilla. His name above all was the name that they put out there.
The Roto guesses were wrong all off season, and I wouldn't be surprised if they are wrong in this case.
Currently, they are wearing Brandon Belt cheer leading outfits and throw a tantrum any time he is not in the lineup.
They are great for updates, but their opinions should be taken for what they are, opinions.

Exactly right Dough...! Opinions, Opinions, Opinions, they are all over the internet by the so called experts. I personnaly rely more than anything on what I think first and what the numbers tell me and to a lesser degree, scouts and contacts I repsect.

Valid point Doughy, though I'd have to believe that the vast majority of players in the NFBC are savvy enough to read beyond the "noise" on a site like Rotoworld and can tell the difference between a statement of fact and a baseless opinion....though I do hope they can't.

One other thought crossed my mind on why someone like Casilla was so overpriced. Though many, like Wayne, would prefer to grab one or two "closers-in-waiting" on the cheap rather than spend the huge sums it takes to land a player like Casilla who "potentially" already has the role, in a contest like the NFBC even the vast majority of legitimate closers-in-waiting are already rostered. Again this goes to the savviness of the typical NFBC player. In a contest when the Romos of the world are being drafted even before the reserve rounds and the best of us are FAAB-ing the Jon Rauch's and David Carpenter's of the world in preventive strikes, the value of a pitcher at worst one step away from the closer role and potentially already owning it increases expodentially.

[headhunters]

i agree with most everything being said- but keep in mind - when you refer to the "vast majority". these are 15 team leagues. evey pickup = 1/15. every player drafted 1/15. all we really know is- 1 player in 15 wanted player x for y amount.

[Edwards Kings]

Tonight and Sunday (knock on wood that someone doesn't get hurt) I will have a rare event. Six pitchers going on the same day. Three of the games today are west coast. Could really give my team a boost or sink me in the early going. Is it strange to say that I will probably be losing some sleep tonight?

[Edwards Kings]

And in those five games (I have Johnson and Dempster going against each other), I only have two offensive players who may get AB against my pitchers! Gooooooo shutouts!

[headhunters]

ya- but are any 3rd basemen going? i think we will be watching the radar gun on josh tonight. pitchers can lose velocity- but not that much. plus no sliders. pretty surprised more hasn't been said about that. if mitch williams is on mlb tonight he will speak honestly about it. if a pitcher sucks- he isn't afraid to say it.

[Edwards Kings]

ya- but are any 3rd basemen going?

Not tonight. In the Main and Auction, Longoria is in Toronto and in the Main, Headley is in Colorado. Youk is riding the pine early this week.

[Edwards Kings]

I sank. Six starts, four good ones, NO WINS!

[Edwards Kings]

Just got my first win for the week...Homer Bailey...Now at eight starts with only one win. What a week!

[Edwards Kings]

Week 3 Results - “The horror…the horror!”



With Dempster’s injury (no injury can really be a surprise, but this week it seems several seemingly heathly pitchers ended up on the DL, including Dempster) and the bad weather, I “only” ended up with twelve games started. Masterson had two bad starts, Billingsley one, and Blanton one, but the other eight were good to great. Those “good” eight averaged pitching into the seventh inning with a combined 2.423 ERA and 1.096 WHIP and a better than 3:1 K to BB ratio. How many wins? ONE. ONE BLOODY WIN! Was it Haren, or Johnson, or Marcum, or Billingsley? No. Homer “FREAKING” Bailey got me my uno. This is just a brutal run of bad luck. The four blow-ups hurt my ERA and WHIP, but I was willing to take the risk to get some wins. Right move. Wrong result. AAAARRGGGGHHH! Only 40 K’s as well and no saves. Not good.

My bats ended up a little under what I wanted. I got the AB’s (294 even with Huff not playing every day). Had some nice numbers from the back half of my draft. Headley (early season pleasant surprise for a 19th rounder) hit 0.400 and De Aza (16th round) hit 0.333. Longoria hit 0.346 and Castro 0.375. Still, my BA for the week was weak (0.265). Hit my target pretty (or down one or two) much on Runs (41), RBI’s (39) and stolen bases (6 in a broad based effort). Only had eight homeruns and I will need a good week to make that up.

Week 4 FAAB – It was hard to identify players who could really help my team. There were some speculative picks made. Not a value judgment on my part, but a solid and experience NFBCer bid $138 on Brett Jackson in wake of the Byrd trade ($138 with a $12 second place bid). Carlos Gomez, part of that three-headed CF platoon in Milwaukee, was purchased for $50 and Juan Francisco, Chipper Jone’s caddy, was bought for $30. I can see why these guys were purchased, but I am still waiting on my own upside gamble (Trevor Plouffe) to play so I have no more room for speculative picks. Riddle me this Batman? Why would Minnesota have Plouffe change positions from the infield to the OF, only to have him ride the pine in the majors the first year they make the change rather than let him play/learn in the minors? I just do not get it. I am not sure how long I can wait for him to get regular playing time as he is just gathering dust on my bench (as he is at Target Field).

Anyway, the other big ticket player was Gerado Parra for $111 (same value as the runner up bid). I wonder how much that grand slam of old Randall “One-Inning Do Over” Delgado had to play in that decision. In any regard, accepting different strokes for different folks, that is a lot on a rental until Young is back. As for me, I decided to cut Juan Guzman. Even with Blanks likely out for the year, Guzman is playing only part time. If the Padres send Yonder down yonder (forgive me my transgressions), this could be a mistake as Guzman could become the everyday first baseman. However, Seth Smith was available ($21 with no runner up). His power is suffering in Oakland, but he is drawing significant AB’s (he has hit fifth or sixth at least in the last six games). He has a good chance to be a decent 14th batter for my team.

I also bid $21 on Marco Estrada (runner up bid $19). I dropped Javier Lopez which is not really what I wanted to do since I need saves. Lopez looks like he will be at best a 1/3 inning vulture save candidate based on match-ups, so I cannot really count on him. Estrada may not pitch this week because of the off day, but with Narveson probably looking at surgery, Milwaukee may need Estrada in the rotation for some time. This will not make up for losing Dempster, who has been awesome so far, but Estrada has the best potential of the pitchers out there to help my team.

Week 4 Planning – With the two acquisitions (Smith and Estrada), my bench got a little stronger. With Dempster down and no closers added, I will go with the eight pitchers who have a chance to start and Axford as my sole closer. Estrada, Benoit, and David Carpenter are on my bench. I still like Benoit (Valverde walked five guys in four innings last week) and Carpenter (wither thou goest, Bret Myers?). I just hope they get their chances sooner rather than later. As to bats, Huff versus Seth Smith is my biggest decision (Plouffe and Beckham, who has been hitting a little at least make up the rest of my bench). SF may play as many as five games these first four days of the week including three in Cincinnati, so I will probably stick with Huff, but Smith could be in this weekend as Oakland plays three in Baltimore.

The loss of wins this week really hurt. Later, when I am trying to catch up on saves, a cushion of wins would have given me some latitude to go with only six or five starters. But that is water under the bridge and the only thing I can do now is maximize the stats I can get from the players I have. I still feel like my team is running in the mud. Wait till they get to dry land.

[Edwards Kings]

What is the definition of bad luck for Wins?

While I was on a conference call with France (always boring), I looked at my top 5 starters year-to-date (yes, way early, but since we have 2.5 weeks behind us, I figured 10% of the season could show me some small scale inferences). Those top 5 starters are Haren, Johnson, Marcum, Billingsley and Dempster whom I expected to be the meat of my rotation, like most do. To date, they have combined for a 3.548 ERA, a 1.240 WHIP with 90 K's in 104 IP (an 86.5% K-Rate) and 26 walks (a 3.5:1 K/BB rate). Those stats are over 17 starts, so they are averaging getting into the seventh inning. Quality starts for the most part with good dominance and good control. For those 17 starts, I have three wins or a 17.6% win rate. It should be closer to 50% with these numbers especially since only 3 of the 17 starts were sub-par.

I cannot wait until I get a little regression to the mean. I hope it comes this year.

[rockitsauce]

[quote="Edwards Kings"]Week 3 Results - “The horror…the horror!”




Kurtz got off the boat. He split from the whole f'n program..........and took Billingsley w/ him

[Edwards Kings]

Son of a gun...Josh Johnson...6 2/3....one ER...nine K's...only three hits and one walk...serious help in three categories....but NO WIN....snake bit! Yeah, I know....

[Edwards Kings]

I have been looking at the first three free agent bidding periods for my league. With about 10% of the season gone, about 18% of the FA dollars (about $2,700) for my league has been spent, which means to me they have been very few, if any, "crazy" bids. Three teams have spent about $400 to around $500 each (around $1,300 or a little less than half of the spend) and one team has not won any bids (if they made any, which I have no way of knowing).

Of the 79 players purchased, eight were bought with bids ranging from $111 to $342 and made of 56% of the money spent and fully 10% of available money ($1,501). All eight had runner-up bids. The deltas between the winners and runners-up on these eight players ranged from $0 to $129. On average, the runner up bids were approximately 60% of the value of the winning bid.

The remaining 71 players purchased were had for an average of just under $17 and there were only three winning bids with a value greater than $50 but less than $111. Twenty-nine players were purchased for $9 or less. Fourty-three of the players purchased were pitchers, 17 of which were closer projects but those closer-projects have made up about 42% of the money spent ($1,140).

Some players stays were short as 21 players who were bought for a total of $677 have already been released, including two players who were bought for total $357. No player has been purchased twice (yet).

No value judgements here, but it does tell me at least one thing about this year especially. Those that were able to secure three closers in the draft in essence starting with "more" FA money.

[headhunters]

mr. kings. i prayed last night that zimmerman (the THIRD basemen) and johann santana aren't on any of your teams. johann must not be - other wise you would have wrote what i always said to the stupid soccer coaches my daughter had that were ALWAYS worried about goals against and NEVER worried about goals for- just how many games are we winning without scoring? ya- 4 starts and ZERO runs. the mets are a girls soccer team. maybe we can win in the shoot out!

[Edwards Kings]

No Santana or Zimmerman for me. Clum was real high on Johan after watching him pitch this spring. Said everyone in the ball-park knew he was throwing change-ups, but the other team just could not hit him. I know he has him on at least one ME team. But truly another hard-luck pitcher if you don't count that game in Atlanta.

In the Main, I was eyeballing him in the 15th round, but Gaëtan grabbed him.

After I decided to draft from the bottom third, I knew I would not be in on Zimmerman as I was pretty sure he was gonna go at the 2/3 turn.

[headhunters]

prayers answered!

[Edwards Kings]

prayers answered!

Now if you could help me do something with my weight!