Post
by JohnZ » Mon Mar 06, 2006 9:04 am
Here's the NL team....
Another tough draft. Another auction that took only 4 1/2 hours.
Our strategy was pretty basic. We had no set target players. We just wanted to get value when we saw it, price enforce, try to get cheap saves, and adjust quickly to the flow of the draft.
We didn't see the constant inflation of AL draft, but we did see pockets of it at different points of the draft and made several adjustments when needed.
We did take every position and "slot" players we liked at all levels of pricing.
D.Lee was first on the board and went for $38.
J.Willingham was second and went for $14.
A.Pujols next went for $42.
The rest of top 10...
Utley $30
B.Wagner $25
P.Martinez $26
R.Oswalt $26
T.Helton $29
M.Prior $19
J.Bay $38
We went after Utley and Oswalt, but they went just a tad bit too high for us.
1) (11) R.Howard 1B $23... We thought he'd go for at least $27 here. Much, much later, Tracy went for $21 and Casey $19. We felt good here, especially if he cranks 40 HR. We were thinking Berkman/Delagado at 1B for $28-30 until this came up.
2) (30) L.Berkman OF $31... We stopped on Pierre at $31 and he went for $32. We stopped on Rollins at $32, he went for 33. We really wanted either one. We then took our $30 slot and went with Berkman, and hope to see his 2nd half over entire year.
Note... M.Berry took Reyes for $33 and Pierre for $32 right off the bat.
3) (40) R.Furcal $26... Time to grab some SB's. Furcal BA in LA overdone. Would like to see 41 SB repeat, but we have him at 32.
Bonds goes for $24.
4) (59) R.Weeks $26... We won this bidding war. We really wanted a solid INF. SB's at this point of the draft going for 15-20% higher, and we weren't afraid to go the extra buck for Weeks.
5) (60) R.Zimmerman $13... E.Encarnacion just had gone for $17. Both of these guys will do much better than "experts" predict.
At this point, we quickly went from having a decent amount of money, to being in bottom 5.
6) (80) A.Pettitte $20... We keep trying to get closers cheap, but they keep going $2-3 more than we want to pay. Time to get some solid SP's.
We bid on, but pass on Webb (22), Zambrano (23), Sheets (25), D.Davis (17) before A.Pettitte.
7) (82) P.Wilson $20... 25 HR in Col(15)/Wash(10), 30 is a possibility in HOU.
8) (91) B.Myers $21... liked the value and K's here. We're now a little over our "top" SP budget. Time to adjust, or so we think...
We now sit back and pray the draft comes back to us, and we get lucky and it does.
we went for 4th most $ spent to 3rd least right here, as we sit on 38 picks we really don't want or need...
9) (129) D.Lowe $15... solid ERA and WHIP... saves are now history, we go for the 11-11-11-11-1=45 pitching stratgey.
10) (147) J.Patterson $17... the extra $$ pay off here. We now have four solid starters with a projected 58 wins, 3.60 ERA, 1.26 whip.
We have $7 left in our P budget, but we like a lot of cheap hitters at this point, and we raise P budget $10. We want one more SP and for RP for $17. We wind up with 5 RP for $18.
11) (163)J.Valentin C $7... all the other 14HR C's are at $10+. We decide we have to get one or maybe get shutout with two real crappy C's.
Again at this point, were hangin' low and hoping no one brings up the guys we want so we can go that extra buck.
12) (172) S.Linebrink RP $7... 15 wins last 2 years. 80k possibility. We want to protect our starters at all costs.
13) (189) X.Nady OF $7. 13 HR is SD last year. Hoping for 15 with much better offense in NY.
14) (208) M.Wise RP $2. We bid the $2 knowing no one would go $3. We wanted to keep sitting back here, so we bid low $ guy on purpose.
15) (214) C.Aguila OF $6. At this point every player left is this risky. The SB potential worth the risk..
16) (243) R.Doutmit C $4... Greg wants this guy at C entire draft, and we hang 29 more picks, and really like this pick at $4. 10 HR possibilty.
17) (247) A.Nunez 2b/3b $2... We like the price, we like the fit on the team, we like what he did last year is STL, and we hope D.Bell goes down!
18) (249) L.Ayala RP. $6... 24 wins in 3 years, solid ERA and WHIP.
For $15, we have "3-headed fifth starter" Linebrink, Ayala, Wise. They combined for 20-12, 210 IP, 2.57 ERA, 1.09 whip, 172k last year. We are wayyyy ahead in ERA and decent amount in whip.
19) (260) T.Worrell RP $2... Just tring for possible vulture saves. Think Hermanson at this time last year. Think Benitez going down again. There's a reason SF got him back...
20) (272) C.Hart OF $1... Greg's Homer pick. LOL. We thought for sure this guy would go for $3-5, but we waited out (and nominated) many other OF spots to get a guy we think will be #4 MIL OF and see some 1B to rest Prince. 10 SB possible for $1.
21) (283) C.Izturis SS $1... he comes back in July and gets us 10 SB for a buck. Happy. Only one team has $2 left now.
22) (294) S.Victorino OF $1... another guy like Hart we thought would go earlier for $2-4.
23) (301) R.Cormier.. RP $1... looking for more vulture wins....
When it's all done we end up with 45 pt P staff. 11-11-11-11-1 went 11-13-13-7(K's)-1.
We have 4 solid starters and will trade for need at midseason.
We set lofty goals again...based on LABR standings prior year...
miss runs by 43, but still ok.
HR +14
RBI on the nose
SB - 23, but still 4th because Berry has so damn many.
AVG. +.002
Wins -3, but in top 4.
SV - We don't care.
SO -178, but we make up for it in ERA and whip.
ERA +0.29 (good) We are also this much ahead of next best team.
WHIP +0.02
Reserve, we take Mabry, Milledge, Eyre, R.Franklin, A.Cook and one other I'll post when I remember them.
A great weekend.
Another great day that started with Baseball Prospectus event that had Kevin Towers and Bill Bavasi speak for over an hour before SD-SEA game. Both were very candid. We picked up a few draft helpful tidbits
The game was interesting, and there is certainly one player neither Greg or I would draft after hearing the GM comments and then seeing how bad he did, later that day.
We'll update this page a few times each month during the season...
[ March 06, 2006, 08:38 PM: Message edited by: UFS ]