There is a flip-side result to the injury problems Hamels has had.
He threw a total of 35 innings in 2005.
He threw a total of 16 innings in 2004.
The Phillies no doubt have an organizational desire for this kid to be their ace in the years to come. When young pitchers are away from a normal workload for so much consecutive time, they are always brought back with a level of caution.
If Hamels manages to stay completely healthy this season, the management will still impose a max number of innings for his 2006 campaign somewhere in the neighborhood of 130 innings. Since he's already up to 28 IP, he's got around 100 left before they shut him down for the year.
Basically, he's going to get a max of about 15 more starts this season in the best case scenario.
He can certainly be effective and make a difference within the span of 15 starts, but people shouldn't feel like pitching well and staying healthy is all he needs to do in order to get the 25 starts that most SPs still have ahead of them this season.
Some people might claim that the Phillies will continue using him throughout August and September if he's pitching great and the team is in a pennant race. That is simply not the way professional baseball franchises operate with young arms. It might have been more of a decision if his circumstances weren't so extreme. To go from the end of 2003 to the start of 2006 with a combined total of 51 innings pitched is basically like starting from scratch. It's completely unheard of for an organization to allow a pitching prospect to go from where this kid's been directly to a season of 200 or 180 (or even 150) innings of work from the mound.
Cole Hamels
Cole Hamels
“The harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph.”
——Thomas Paine
——Thomas Paine
Cole Hamels
Rodger--
At times, that is a good point. I don't think it applicable in this case, however. If the Phils intended to cap his innings, they wouldn't have called him up now at all. They would have waited until June or July.
Alternatively, they will find "excuses" to skip starts.
They will not, however, get to August 1, with Hamels at 130 innings and the Phils in a penant race, and tell the fans, "that's all folks--he has reached his max."
No way.
At times, that is a good point. I don't think it applicable in this case, however. If the Phils intended to cap his innings, they wouldn't have called him up now at all. They would have waited until June or July.
Alternatively, they will find "excuses" to skip starts.
They will not, however, get to August 1, with Hamels at 130 innings and the Phils in a penant race, and tell the fans, "that's all folks--he has reached his max."
No way.
Cole Hamels
I agree, if the Phils are in the race, they'll continue to pitch him. And then he'll break down in September when he's needed most...
As for the Vickrey bidding method, we instituted it in our local league this year and it's working fine. The idea behind it is that a player being acquired via FAAB should be treated as if he were being bid on during the auction. If Owner A says $7, in most cases Owner B wouldn't jump to $20. He might say $10, but not $20 (remember, these are usually players that didn't get drafted in the first place). So the idea is that since bidding on Auction Day isn't blind, neither should FAAB bidding.
Basically, any bid over $5 is susceptible to Vickrey. Whatever the highest bid is gets lowered to $1 above the second place bid as long as that second place bid is $5 or more. If not, then the winning bid becomes $5. Example: if I bid $15 on someone and the next highest bid is $8, I get him for $9. But if the next highest bid is $3 (or if the bid is $0, or there's no second bid at all), then I get him for $5.
It introduces some interesting strategy into the FAAB process, in that it's almost like price enforcing during the auction. The cat-and-mouse comes into play when trying to figure out what somebody else might bid. If I know that one owner is desperate to acquire someone, I can figure that he might bid $75, because he's thinking that nobody else will bid over $10 and thus he'll probably get him for a whole let less via Vickrey. But I could mess him up and bid $50, and he would end up getting his guy but only after paying $51. Of course, he could counter and screw me, and I end up spending $50 on a guy I don't want. Fun, eh?
As for the Vickrey bidding method, we instituted it in our local league this year and it's working fine. The idea behind it is that a player being acquired via FAAB should be treated as if he were being bid on during the auction. If Owner A says $7, in most cases Owner B wouldn't jump to $20. He might say $10, but not $20 (remember, these are usually players that didn't get drafted in the first place). So the idea is that since bidding on Auction Day isn't blind, neither should FAAB bidding.
Basically, any bid over $5 is susceptible to Vickrey. Whatever the highest bid is gets lowered to $1 above the second place bid as long as that second place bid is $5 or more. If not, then the winning bid becomes $5. Example: if I bid $15 on someone and the next highest bid is $8, I get him for $9. But if the next highest bid is $3 (or if the bid is $0, or there's no second bid at all), then I get him for $5.
It introduces some interesting strategy into the FAAB process, in that it's almost like price enforcing during the auction. The cat-and-mouse comes into play when trying to figure out what somebody else might bid. If I know that one owner is desperate to acquire someone, I can figure that he might bid $75, because he's thinking that nobody else will bid over $10 and thus he'll probably get him for a whole let less via Vickrey. But I could mess him up and bid $50, and he would end up getting his guy but only after paying $51. Of course, he could counter and screw me, and I end up spending $50 on a guy I don't want. Fun, eh?
"There is but one game and that game is baseball." – John McGraw
Cole Hamels
BEF--
I haven't thought to much about that, but if that VICKROY system was used, we would have saved $421 on our bid! There wouldn't have been much strategy at all for us.
In determining out bid, we looked at the rosters of the owners with the most funds to bid, and tried to guess as to whether they would be bidding, and to what extent.
We had 3 levels of bids determined. $400's, high $500's-mid $600's, and $826 (thinking no owner is going to spend everything). We would have been fine with our first tier, but we had no way of knowing.
I actually think there is much more guesswork and strategy with the system as is.
I haven't thought to much about that, but if that VICKROY system was used, we would have saved $421 on our bid! There wouldn't have been much strategy at all for us.
In determining out bid, we looked at the rosters of the owners with the most funds to bid, and tried to guess as to whether they would be bidding, and to what extent.
We had 3 levels of bids determined. $400's, high $500's-mid $600's, and $826 (thinking no owner is going to spend everything). We would have been fine with our first tier, but we had no way of knowing.
I actually think there is much more guesswork and strategy with the system as is.
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Joe Sambito
- Posts: 931
- Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 6:00 pm
Cole Hamels
Interesting method. It seems it would play better in a league that started out as an auction league, since that is how the rosters were initially constructed. However, a draft league, the current system seems sufficent.
"Everyone is born right-handed, only the greatest overcome it."
Cole Hamels
Some people might claim that the Phillies will continue using him throughout August and September if he's pitching great and the team is in a pennant race. That is simply not the way professional baseball franchises operate with young arms. Wrong!
They would pitch him until his arm comes flying off and hits Lieberthal in the pelvis.
His health is actually helped by the fact that he didn't pitch so many innings during the injury nexus (if you are reading this, UFS, you can go back to sleep).
They would pitch him until his arm comes flying off and hits Lieberthal in the pelvis.
His health is actually helped by the fact that he didn't pitch so many innings during the injury nexus (if you are reading this, UFS, you can go back to sleep).
Chance favors the prepared mind.
Cole Hamels
Originally posted by bjoak:
Wrong!
They would pitch him until his arm comes flying off and hits Lieberthal in the pelvis.
His health is actually helped by the fact that he didn't pitch so many innings during the injury nexus (if you are reading this, UFS, you can go back to sleep). That's pretty mindless.
When a guy has a year or two of reduced innings because of non-pitching motion injuries, it is sometimes believed that the player will return with a fresh arm. A good example of this would be Roy Halladay in 2006. After logging a ton of innings in 2002 and 2003 (over 500 IP combined), he had his 2004 and 2005 seasons cut short (133 IP and then 141.2 IP). Halladay entered this year with no lingering effects from the grind of a long previous season, and since his last injury occurred when a comebacker hit him in the shin, there was no reason to question the structural integrity of his arm.
The thing is that Roy Halladay has a pitching arm which has already been built up to where he threw 266 innings one year, and he's a veteran with an understanding of how his arm will recover from various circumstances because he has a history for reference.
A young kid who has never thrown near 200 innings during any year of his life doesn't share the wisdom of that experience. He's not supposed to yet and no one expects him to. That is why the decision will not be left up to him or be based upon how he feels. Hamels has barely pitched since 2003. If you believe that his organization is going to ride him like a veteran horse, you're believing that because you want them to do so. It's simply not even a remote option.
I was thrilled to have grabbed Hamels in another league just before it was announced he was coming up. I hope he dominates every time he takes the mound this year, but I'm not delusional enough to think they're going to treat him like a normal pitcher who can go full steam ahead to the end of the season.
Wrong!
They would pitch him until his arm comes flying off and hits Lieberthal in the pelvis.
His health is actually helped by the fact that he didn't pitch so many innings during the injury nexus (if you are reading this, UFS, you can go back to sleep). That's pretty mindless.
When a guy has a year or two of reduced innings because of non-pitching motion injuries, it is sometimes believed that the player will return with a fresh arm. A good example of this would be Roy Halladay in 2006. After logging a ton of innings in 2002 and 2003 (over 500 IP combined), he had his 2004 and 2005 seasons cut short (133 IP and then 141.2 IP). Halladay entered this year with no lingering effects from the grind of a long previous season, and since his last injury occurred when a comebacker hit him in the shin, there was no reason to question the structural integrity of his arm.
The thing is that Roy Halladay has a pitching arm which has already been built up to where he threw 266 innings one year, and he's a veteran with an understanding of how his arm will recover from various circumstances because he has a history for reference.
A young kid who has never thrown near 200 innings during any year of his life doesn't share the wisdom of that experience. He's not supposed to yet and no one expects him to. That is why the decision will not be left up to him or be based upon how he feels. Hamels has barely pitched since 2003. If you believe that his organization is going to ride him like a veteran horse, you're believing that because you want them to do so. It's simply not even a remote option.
I was thrilled to have grabbed Hamels in another league just before it was announced he was coming up. I hope he dominates every time he takes the mound this year, but I'm not delusional enough to think they're going to treat him like a normal pitcher who can go full steam ahead to the end of the season.
“The harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph.”
——Thomas Paine
——Thomas Paine
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Gordon Gekko
- Posts: 4317
- Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2004 6:00 pm
- Contact:
Cole Hamels
Originally posted by cindy:
WOW....I cannot believe how much he went for. He dominated at Scranton, which is a hitters park, and he did well the other night...but he is still a rookie...look at how hyped up King Felix has been, it's not easy making the transition to the bigs and remaining dominant...We'll soon find out if he was worth emptying the chamber on 1st start is in the books. what say ye, cindy?
WOW....I cannot believe how much he went for. He dominated at Scranton, which is a hitters park, and he did well the other night...but he is still a rookie...look at how hyped up King Felix has been, it's not easy making the transition to the bigs and remaining dominant...We'll soon find out if he was worth emptying the chamber on 1st start is in the books. what say ye, cindy?
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Greg Ambrosius
- Posts: 41076
- Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2004 6:00 pm
- Contact:
Cole Hamels
Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
quote:Originally posted by cindy:
WOW....I cannot believe how much he went for. He dominated at Scranton, which is a hitters park, and he did well the other night...but he is still a rookie...look at how hyped up King Felix has been, it's not easy making the transition to the bigs and remaining dominant...We'll soon find out if he was worth emptying the chamber on 1st start is in the books. what say ye, cindy? [/QUOTE]He was cruising through the Brewers' lineup until the vaunted Chad Moeller got a hold of him. I'm sure Hamels never saw the likes of Moeller in the minors before. Be forewarned, son.
quote:Originally posted by cindy:
WOW....I cannot believe how much he went for. He dominated at Scranton, which is a hitters park, and he did well the other night...but he is still a rookie...look at how hyped up King Felix has been, it's not easy making the transition to the bigs and remaining dominant...We'll soon find out if he was worth emptying the chamber on 1st start is in the books. what say ye, cindy? [/QUOTE]He was cruising through the Brewers' lineup until the vaunted Chad Moeller got a hold of him. I'm sure Hamels never saw the likes of Moeller in the minors before. Be forewarned, son.
Greg Ambrosius
Founder, National Fantasy Baseball Championship
General Manager, Consumer Fantasy Games at SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @GregAmbrosius
Founder, National Fantasy Baseball Championship
General Manager, Consumer Fantasy Games at SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @GregAmbrosius
Cole Hamels
thru 6 innings I was about to say he was well worth the FAAB $ that was spent on him, then he fell apart and ended up with a sub par stat line, not what his owners wanted , but he does look promising....BTW I will be at the preakness too, wanna have a drink together
Cole Hamels
Originally posted by RODGER:
quote:Originally posted by bjoak:
Wrong!
They would pitch him until his arm comes flying off and hits Lieberthal in the pelvis.
His health is actually helped by the fact that he didn't pitch so many innings during the injury nexus (if you are reading this, UFS, you can go back to sleep). That's pretty mindless.
When a guy has a year or two of reduced innings because of non-pitching motion injuries, it is sometimes believed that the player will return with a fresh arm. A good example of this would be Roy Halladay in 2006. After logging a ton of innings in 2002 and 2003 (over 500 IP combined), he had his 2004 and 2005 seasons cut short (133 IP and then 141.2 IP). Halladay entered this year with no lingering effects from the grind of a long previous season, and since his last injury occurred when a comebacker hit him in the shin, there was no reason to question the structural integrity of his arm.
The thing is that Roy Halladay has a pitching arm which has already been built up to where he threw 266 innings one year, and he's a veteran with an understanding of how his arm will recover from various circumstances because he has a history for reference.
A young kid who has never thrown near 200 innings during any year of his life doesn't share the wisdom of that experience. He's not supposed to yet and no one expects him to. That is why the decision will not be left up to him or be based upon how he feels. Hamels has barely pitched since 2003. If you believe that his organization is going to ride him like a veteran horse, you're believing that because you want them to do so. It's simply not even a remote option.
I was thrilled to have grabbed Hamels in another league just before it was announced he was coming up. I hope he dominates every time he takes the mound this year, but I'm not delusional enough to think they're going to treat him like a normal pitcher who can go full steam ahead to the end of the season. [/QUOTE]So guys can go a full season, only if stregthened by the wisdom of having done it before? And you're calling me mindless? BTW, I don't care what happens with Hamels and I don't think he's a sure thing because of one outstanding month in Triple-A. I think they would have the good sense to watch his pitch counts and not 'ride him,' but if you think that when/if he is doing well in a penant race they will say, "Okay, August 15, you're done. Go on vacation, we'll see you next spring," then again, you're the delusional one. If he is wearing down it will show in his results, duh.
quote:Originally posted by bjoak:
Wrong!
They would pitch him until his arm comes flying off and hits Lieberthal in the pelvis.
His health is actually helped by the fact that he didn't pitch so many innings during the injury nexus (if you are reading this, UFS, you can go back to sleep). That's pretty mindless.
When a guy has a year or two of reduced innings because of non-pitching motion injuries, it is sometimes believed that the player will return with a fresh arm. A good example of this would be Roy Halladay in 2006. After logging a ton of innings in 2002 and 2003 (over 500 IP combined), he had his 2004 and 2005 seasons cut short (133 IP and then 141.2 IP). Halladay entered this year with no lingering effects from the grind of a long previous season, and since his last injury occurred when a comebacker hit him in the shin, there was no reason to question the structural integrity of his arm.
The thing is that Roy Halladay has a pitching arm which has already been built up to where he threw 266 innings one year, and he's a veteran with an understanding of how his arm will recover from various circumstances because he has a history for reference.
A young kid who has never thrown near 200 innings during any year of his life doesn't share the wisdom of that experience. He's not supposed to yet and no one expects him to. That is why the decision will not be left up to him or be based upon how he feels. Hamels has barely pitched since 2003. If you believe that his organization is going to ride him like a veteran horse, you're believing that because you want them to do so. It's simply not even a remote option.
I was thrilled to have grabbed Hamels in another league just before it was announced he was coming up. I hope he dominates every time he takes the mound this year, but I'm not delusional enough to think they're going to treat him like a normal pitcher who can go full steam ahead to the end of the season. [/QUOTE]So guys can go a full season, only if stregthened by the wisdom of having done it before? And you're calling me mindless? BTW, I don't care what happens with Hamels and I don't think he's a sure thing because of one outstanding month in Triple-A. I think they would have the good sense to watch his pitch counts and not 'ride him,' but if you think that when/if he is doing well in a penant race they will say, "Okay, August 15, you're done. Go on vacation, we'll see you next spring," then again, you're the delusional one. If he is wearing down it will show in his results, duh.
Chance favors the prepared mind.
Cole Hamels
Gulps. . .
"Cole Hamels experienced soreness in the back of his left shoulder while throwing in the outfield Tuesday and was scratched from his scheduled start Wednesday night.
To replace him, the Phillies will start Jon Lieber against the Mets on Wednesday, with Brett Myers going Thursday afternoon. Hamels will return to Philadelphia on Wednesday for an evaluation. The Phillies certainly knew this was a possibility. Ryan Madson may have to go back into the rotation next time through. At least he's still stretched out."
"Cole Hamels experienced soreness in the back of his left shoulder while throwing in the outfield Tuesday and was scratched from his scheduled start Wednesday night.
To replace him, the Phillies will start Jon Lieber against the Mets on Wednesday, with Brett Myers going Thursday afternoon. Hamels will return to Philadelphia on Wednesday for an evaluation. The Phillies certainly knew this was a possibility. Ryan Madson may have to go back into the rotation next time through. At least he's still stretched out."
Cole Hamels
Look at the bright side -- Charcoal will be used alot this weekend at BBQ's while Cole spends some R&R time on the DL.
They should shut him down til next year!
They should shut him down til next year!
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Edwards Kings
- Posts: 5909
- Joined: Sun Mar 14, 2004 6:00 pm
- Location: Duluth, Georgia
Cole Hamels
Originally posted by bjoak:
[QUOTE] They would pitch him until his arm comes flying off and hits Lieberthal in the pelvis. I must have missed this on the highlight reel, but since he is now on the DL anyway, to those good managers who spent so much on him...bummer!
To quote ET (the one from the movies, not Willie McGee)..."Oooouch!"
[QUOTE] They would pitch him until his arm comes flying off and hits Lieberthal in the pelvis. I must have missed this on the highlight reel, but since he is now on the DL anyway, to those good managers who spent so much on him...bummer!
To quote ET (the one from the movies, not Willie McGee)..."Oooouch!"
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer
Charles Krauthammer