Will Gekko go Santana_in_the_1st?

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Mon Dec 17, 2007 4:41 am

headhunters speaks the truth.. our league was the 2nd best league in points and I finished 3rd... Inebriated blew us away with those 2 pickups.. I believe Carmona was a FA to start the year since he wasn't going to be in the Tribe rotation until Lee got injured... Braun was another guy who was speculated to come up at some point, but no one knew when so whoever drafted him dropped him and Inebriated picked him up before he got his callup.

EliGrimmett · Post by **EliGrimmett** » Mon Dec 17, 2007 9:33 am

Something interesting: Two of the top five teams had Santana, yet those two teams ranked below the other three teams in pitching points. Things that make you go hm...

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Dec 17, 2007 9:53 am

Originally posted by EliGrimmett:

Something interesting: Two of the top five teams had Santana, yet those two teams ranked below the other three teams in pitching points. Things that make you go hm... speaking for myself, when i picked santana i knew i had to hitch my wagon to him and load up on offense. using SP from my draft, my #1 SP was santana. i took him in the 1st round. by the end of the season, the next SP on my team was Jimmy Shields (17th round). that musta been the widest margin for anyone. 1st - 17th round.

[ December 17, 2007, 04:00 PM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko ]

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Dec 17, 2007 9:59 am

Originally posted by Less than Dave:

I believe Carmona was a FA to start the year since he wasn't going to be in the Tribe rotation until Lee got injured... if i recall correctly, carmona was indeed starting to begin the season and that info was KNOWN on draft day. you best sharpen your game if you are going to try and stop me this year

EliGrimmett · Post by **EliGrimmett** » Mon Dec 17, 2007 10:08 am

That is interesting GG.

Another interesting observation about Santana in the first round for two of the top five teams: If you look at it backwards, it appears that those two teams (one of them yours) had no problem obtaining a great offense, which is one of the big reasons teams stay away from a pitcher in round one.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Mon Dec 17, 2007 10:12 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Less than Dave:

I believe Carmona was a FA to start the year since he wasn't going to be in the Tribe rotation until Lee got injured... if i recall correctly, carmona was indeed starting to begin the season and that info was KNOWN on draft day. you best sharpen your game if you are going to try and stop me this year [/QUOTE]Gordon as a fellow Carmona dropper- would you have won the 100k if you did not drop him. Don't even try and tell me you did not do the math.

Congrats again on a great draft last year. You found a lot of guys I did not like but should have liked on draft day. IE Victorino

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Dec 17, 2007 10:28 am

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

Gordon as a fellow Carmona dropper- would you have won the 100k if you did not drop him. Don't even try and tell me you did not do the math.trust me, i did NOT do any fuzzy math. being hostage to past mistakes blinds your future path.

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

Congrats again on a great draft last year. You found a lot of guys I did not like but should have liked on draft day. IE Victorino thank you. i've got a few of the new crop of outliers identified. granted they are only pitchers. and it is only december. a lot will change in the next three months.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Dec 17, 2007 10:40 am

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

Congrats again on a great draft last year. to be fair, i had my share of strikeouts on draft day

s.drew in the 10th

a.reyes in the 13th

c.quentin in the 14th

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Mon Dec 17, 2007 11:11 am

Gecko: this is the news on Carmona around the time of the draft..

Fausto Carmona-S- Indians Mar. 20 - 6:24 pm et

Indians manager Eric Wedge confirmed Tuesday that Fausto Carmona would open the season in the rotation in place of the injured Cliff Lee.

Carmona will make at least two starts in place of Lee, and since those first two are likely to come at home against the Mariners and Angels, he'd be a decent play in AL-only leagues. He'll probably head to Triple-A once Lee is healthy.

That's March 20.. 5 days after the draft I believe.. so no, it was NOT known that Carmona would be in the rotation to start the season.. you best sharpen your MEMORY skills. However, you could argue that we knew Lee had a strained abdominal and Carmona should have been next in line, but who knew he would take the ball and run with it like he did? Especially after his breakdown as a closer the season before? Come on. I'm a HUGE Indians fan and I couldn't have claimed to have seen that coming even if I was a pure optimist. No one did. Granted, he was a very good prospect, but not a single person other than maybe Carmona and his mother would have predicted he would get CY Young votes.. I figured he would be up for a week or 2 max then back down to AAA when Lee came back... if anyone was staying I assumed it would be Adam Miller.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Dec 17, 2007 11:18 am

Dave - it's obvious u wait for the "official news" to get posted before it clicks with you. That won't fly in the nfbc.

As for carmona, I KNEW he was starting on draft day, which is why I drafted him. I believe his starts got delayed to some games getting postponed due to snow. I'll readily admit when I'm wrong, but I'm 100% correct on carmona.

Make sure u check rotoworld before you walk in the draft room. I wouldn't want you to miss out on any breaking news

[ December 17, 2007, 05:22 PM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko ]

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Mon Dec 17, 2007 11:29 am

hahahahahaha

you're funny.

but anyways... no, I do not wait for the official news.. obviously things are known before they are "officially" announced. However, it was NOT 100% certain that Carmona was going to make the rotation and Lee was going on the DL (unless you know them or higher ups in the Cleveland organization personally), but it was probable. Like I said though, there were other reasons to be leery of him being a good draft pick... you took a chance on him late in the draft and it paid off.. congrats. And I will fly in the NFBC just fine.. but thanks for your input. Please continue to provide it whenever you think of something.. although it seems you have no qualms about that anyhow

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Mon Dec 17, 2007 12:21 pm

My thing is, you pick the best player available in the first 5 rounds. My guess is (from listening to your past posts) there is not one person that can sway you from any of your decisions.

So, you either want to stir up conversation regarding Johan (which I'm all for) or you want to see where everyone else is at as far as position of draft Johan should go.

Either way, you're gathering important information that you can use to your advantage come draft day.

We all know Johan will go within a close range of picks in the 1st so there shouldn't be much discussion over it.

The guy that I think would bring a wider range as far as draft position is Liriano who could very well be ready by spring training and who, I'm sure you all already know this, was more effective as a starter than Johan in 2006. But I'll leave that for another thread.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Dec 17, 2007 12:38 pm

Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

My guess is (from listening to your past posts) there is not one person that can sway you from any of your decisions.

that is a very good guess

Sheep · Post by **Sheep** » Mon Dec 17, 2007 12:50 pm

If I want Santana as my ACE, and can do the math to show that he is the best choice first overall, which may be the case: I need to know where I can be "safe" to get him with as late of KDS as possible. If you go with Santana, those first few hitters all need to be a solid, as you will be starting down some offense. Think Howard/Fielder vs Helton/Loney.

After the results of Inbernated and Guess who? I might lean that way, if he is there when I pick. If you want him you (or any other top player) you need to take the best player (that will be gone when you pick next) that is still on the board.

I would think that Gekko has a better chance to take Santana then AROD, and would say that I project Santana will be drafted by Gekko. 20+% chance, as last year he thought Santana was the top player when he picked. I don't know if Santana was Gekko's target when he submitted his KDS, or if that draft spot was his last choice. He was his first round pick, but then again the year before he took Bay & Pierre, in the first and second and didn't bite on either in '07.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Mon Dec 17, 2007 12:57 pm

One thing that I have not seen in this conversation which btw has a lot of good thoughts is....

Do you think he will perform this year like previous years? It was not a great 2nd half on the surface...

The other side of it I always use is if you have equal players in the first round- take the guy from the position you see less value in later. I see a lot of value in starting pitching this year.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Dec 17, 2007 1:53 pm

Chest - there is no safer pitcher in baseball (and it's not even close).

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Mon Dec 17, 2007 1:56 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Chest - there is no safer pitcher in baseball (and it's not even close). I agree 100%, I am not comparing him to anyone else. I am comparing him to the 2005-2007 version of him. Not sold yet...

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Dec 17, 2007 2:04 pm

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Chest - there is no safer pitcher in baseball (and it's not even close). I agree 100%, I am not comparing him to anyone else. I am comparing him to the 2005-2007 version of him. Not sold yet... [/QUOTE]Not sold yet? I guess he needs to k 12 per 9 and have a whip of .6 for u to be sold.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Mon Dec 17, 2007 2:15 pm

With Santana, as with most pitchers, it is all about the HR. Last season, for whatver reason, he gave up more HR than usual. While HR prevention is considered a skill, there is also a luck element to it, as opposed to the pure skills of K-rate and BB-rate. Johan's K-rate was actually a tad better last season, though his BB-rate suffered a little. Personally, I don't believe he is a "second half pitcher that didn't have his usual good second half" last season. He's a fly ball pitcher and occasionally fly ball pitchers give up an unlucky number of HR.

This piece I wrote for SI.com talks about it in a little more detail.

Santana second half

[ December 17, 2007, 08:17 PM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Dec 17, 2007 2:22 pm

Todd The Truth Zola. What's great about santana is that he did give up a few more hr than normal last year. When that rate comes down this year, his era is back in the 2's. People ALWAYS draft based on last year's stats. With that said, what is the lowest pick in the 1st round that I could be guarenteed to get samatana with (95% confidence level)?

[ December 17, 2007, 08:23 PM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko ]

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Mon Dec 17, 2007 2:57 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Chest - there is no safer pitcher in baseball (and it's not even close). I agree 100%, I am not comparing him to anyone else. I am comparing him to the 2005-2007 version of him. Not sold yet... [/QUOTE]Not sold yet? I guess he needs to k 12 per 9 and have a whip of .6 for u to be sold. [/QUOTE]One more time if I get the the 2005-2007 version in 08 I am fine. I am not sold you will get that version in 2008.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Dec 17, 2007 2:59 pm

No prob chest. Will u gamble on a 2nd year or 3rd year player this year in the 1st round. Braun should be there.

[ December 17, 2007, 09:00 PM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko ]

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Mon Dec 17, 2007 3:08 pm

I'd say 6-7.. although that could change with a trade to a contender

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Mon Dec 17, 2007 3:11 pm

I will certainly go a different route though

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Mon Dec 17, 2007 3:11 pm

I may go Santana or Braun tomorrow night at 12 b/c of the winner take all format makes me take a few more risks. Plus you have to be a little lucky to beat that field.

My board is still somewhat fluid after pick 9- but I cannot see going Braun until pick 15 the way I have it now.

To answer your 95% question IMO the answer you have to at least get pick 9. Barring any spring injuries I think the first 8 guys will be the same in 80% of all leagues.