NFBC

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 8:20 am

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

[QUOTE] The guy who made that pick won a 100,000 more than you playing fantasy baseball last year.

I think Phillips will go mid first round in more drafts than most will expect in 08. I consider KJ Duke to be the Rosa Parks of this trend with Rollins in 07. The thought process being if you jump on Phillips there you get the more scarce thing taken care of and is there that much difference between the player you pass on in round one to get Phillips versus who is left in round 2 rather than "hoping" Phillips is still there. Oh, Chesty, if only I had this post to to throw back at you when you were giving me S about selecting Sheets in 2005.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 8:23 am

Last week I said my goal was to get 4 wins and 48 K’s a week. You might ask… What about saves? In a perfect situation I would like to have three closers from the start of the year as I’m sure everyone would. I think the final number to shoot for is 95 saves in the NFBC. If you draft two closers who could get 40 saves each, you would be right on the number. In order to get 40 saves, each closer would average about 1.5 per week. The third closer would then only be needed for about 10 weeks to make up the other 15 saves. In most cases we are lucky to even get two closers and have a solid closer in waiting. With that thought in mind you really only need to use a roster spot 62 times during the year. If you can achieve a higher number per roster spot, you are ahead of the game. If you need three closers all year to make the 95 saves, you might be short in wins and K’s.

Now once you are in the heat of the battle the playing field changes. Every league will unfold differently. You need to constantly evaluate the pitching categories. If you are strong in hitting, you might only need 45 out of 75 pitching points to win your league. Other times you might need every pitching point possible to win. This is where I think saves is a game in it self.

Late in the season wins and strikeouts will be tight for many teams. Many owners will choose to play the third closer over the seventh starter. The problem is they might be protecting one out of three points. I’m going to use whip and era as neutral categories when the season unwinds. The reason being the plus/minus could be equal across the board or you could even be in a gap where it doesn’t matter either way. When you put in the third closer when you are in a battle for wins and K’s, you could lose one point in wins and one point in strikeouts for the one you gain in saves.

The chase for the almighty save has burned everyone at one time or another. They don’t come cheap off the free agent pool in the NFBC. You pickup a new closer and slide him into you line-up. You are so proud of yourself for finding the missing jewel to your season. Two weeks go by, where are my saves? This happens all the time. It could be a month or even more before the saves start to pile up. What if your jewel turns to coal and loses his job and you wasted a month of a roster spot? You better hope this happens in May not September.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 8:24 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

[QUOTE] The guy who made that pick won a 100,000 more than you playing fantasy baseball last year.

I think Phillips will go mid first round in more drafts than most will expect in 08. I consider KJ Duke to be the Rosa Parks of this trend with Rollins in 07. The thought process being if you jump on Phillips there you get the more scarce thing taken care of and is there that much difference between the player you pass on in round one to get Phillips versus who is left in round 2 rather than "hoping" Phillips is still there. Oh, Chesty, if only I had this post to to throw back at you when you were giving me S about selecting Sheets in 2005. [/QUOTE]You drafted a mid 3rd round pick at pick 5 if I remember- I think you know there is a difference. Plus KJ Duke turned out to be right you turned out to have a finish that no matter how hard you try you can't get past me lifetime for one reason reason Brian- Ben Sheets. I thought you had me in 07... You do hold the key win in our head to head matchup though but I would rather avoid you in the main event you know too much about me so maybe we will both join Crazy's satellite league and you will give me a shot at evening the score?

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 8:25 am

Hook I'm merely saying the draft is not the end-all.. you need to be solid in FA as well.. but you absolutely need a strong draft to have a shot at the 100,000.. I never said, or meant, otherwise.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 8:27 am

The thing I really like about Shawn and Dan Kenyon is they really will try to help you if you ask a question. I also like that they will not blow smoke up your azz if they think you screwed the pooch they will tell you.

Less than Dave just an observation I have seen you in a minor debate with both in the last 24 hours. When those 2 talk my cocky azz just shuts up and listens.. you will learn something every time.

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 8:35 am

Minor debate? I don't see it that way...I most certainly am sitting back and absorbing everything CC is saying... and Doughboys too, but he was more speaking about the Indians as a team. This is some good stuff.. thanks a lot for sharing, Shawn.

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 8:37 am

You could be right Chest. You've gotta love that park he plays in.

I'm pretty big on Kinsler as well. He has developing power, and he looks like he could have a very big breakout in 2008. I'm kind of thinking he could be this year's Phillips. I've got him around .280-25-90-110 runs - 25+ stolens bases (high end projection)

I guess the only question is his health. What do you think about him in the 3rd round?

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 8:40 am

Okay - let's see if the formatting holds here.

First three rounds - which teams do you like? hate?

1...A. Rodriguez.Rios........Figgins

2...Pujols.......Granderson..Webb

3...Wright.......Berkman.....Abreu

4...H. Ramirez...Peavy.......Byrnes

5...J. Reyes.....Fielder.....Markakis

6...Rollins......C. Lee......I. Suzuki

7...Utley........Beltran.....Ordonez

8...Holliday.....V. Guerrero.B. Roberts

9...B. Phillips..V. Martinez.M. Ramirez

10..M. Cabrera...Sizemore....Beckett

11..R. Braun.....Tulowitzki..D. Lee

12..R. Howard....B.J. Upton..Jeter

13..A. Soriano...R. Martin...T. Hunter

14..J. Santana...D. Ortiz....A. Ramirez

15..Crawford.....Teixeira....Furcal

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 8:42 am

Originally posted by Less than Dave:

Minor debate? I don't see it that way...I most certainly am sitting back and absorbing everything CC is saying... and Doughboys too, but he was more speaking about the Indians as a team. This is some good stuff.. thanks a lot for sharing, Shawn. Well..good luck..I hope it helps you. I thought everyone was kind of bored today just looking for anything about baseball. It's about an hour until kick-off. I'll probably disappear for a couple of months!!

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 8:42 am

Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

You could be right Chest. You've gotta love that park he plays in.

I'm pretty big on Kinsler as well. He has developing power, and he looks like he could have a very big breakout in 2008. I'm kind of thinking he could be this year's Phillips. I've got him around .280-25-90-110 runs - 25+ stolens bases (high end projection)

I guess the only question is his health. What do you think about him in the 3rd round? I think you are telling way too much about guys you like on these boards and it may come back to haunt you in your drafts. I do think you could make a case that Kinsler is similar and a guy worth jumping on in late round 3 instead of hoping in round 4. I personally will have to get great value to jump on any 2b in the first 10 rounds- great value plays after the first turn IMO and you can never have enough of those.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 8:44 am

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

quote:Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

You could be right Chest. You've gotta love that park he plays in.

I'm pretty big on Kinsler as well. He has developing power, and he looks like he could have a very big breakout in 2008. I'm kind of thinking he could be this year's Phillips. I've got him around .280-25-90-110 runs - 25+ stolens bases (high end projection)

I guess the only question is his health. What do you think about him in the 3rd round? I think you are telling way too much about guys you like on these boards and it may come back to haunt you in your drafts. I do think you could make a case that Kinsler is similar and a guy worth jumping on in late round 3 instead of hoping in round 4. I personally will have to get great value to jump on any 2b in the first 10 rounds- great value plays after the first turn IMO and you can never have enough of those. [/QUOTE]I don't think he is playing in main this year. Is he?

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 8:46 am

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

[QUOTE] The guy who made that pick won a 100,000 more than you playing fantasy baseball last year.

I think Phillips will go mid first round in more drafts than most will expect in 08. I consider KJ Duke to be the Rosa Parks of this trend with Rollins in 07. The thought process being if you jump on Phillips there you get the more scarce thing taken care of and is there that much difference between the player you pass on in round one to get Phillips versus who is left in round 2 rather than "hoping" Phillips is still there. Oh, Chesty, if only I had this post to to throw back at you when you were giving me S about selecting Sheets in 2005. [/QUOTE]You drafted a mid 3rd round pick at pick 5 if I remember- I think you know there is a difference. Plus KJ Duke turned out to be right you turned out to have a finish that no matter how hard you try you can't get past me lifetime for one reason reason Brian- Ben Sheets. I thought you had me in 07... You do hold the key win in our head to head matchup though but I would rather avoid you in the main event you know too much about me so maybe we will both join Crazy's satellite league and you will give me a shot at evening the score? [/QUOTE]Check that. Ben Sheets 2005 ADP: #23. It was unlikely he would fall to me in round 2. Not that I do not regret the pick. Yes, you always end up ahead lifetime but it's also always a good competition...and fun. Crazy's draft is too late. I will do one satellite for practice, probably the week before. Also, I've chatted with your buddy about strategy and so forth as we were assuming we were not going to be in the same league so it would probably be inappropriate to join now. Don't forget, you and I may very well end up in the same league in Vegas anyway!

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 8:47 am

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

quote:Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

You could be right Chest. You've gotta love that park he plays in.

I'm pretty big on Kinsler as well. He has developing power, and he looks like he could have a very big breakout in 2008. I'm kind of thinking he could be this year's Phillips. I've got him around .280-25-90-110 runs - 25+ stolens bases (high end projection)

I guess the only question is his health. What do you think about him in the 3rd round? I think you are telling way too much about guys you like on these boards and it may come back to haunt you in your drafts. I do think you could make a case that Kinsler is similar and a guy worth jumping on in late round 3 instead of hoping in round 4. I personally will have to get great value to jump on any 2b in the first 10 rounds- great value plays after the first turn IMO and you can never have enough of those. [/QUOTE]I don't think he is playing in main this year. Is he? [/QUOTE]No but he is pretty jazzed up about those satellites and a few guys from these boards will be in them. If you are drafting at an end near him all you have to do is read his posts and you have a huge advantage.

I will give you this Crazy a lot of your thoughts and reasoning IMO are lights years ahead of where they were last year.

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 8:48 am

Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

You could be right Chest. You've gotta love that park he plays in.

I'm pretty big on Kinsler as well. He has developing power, and he looks like he could have a very big breakout in 2008. I'm kind of thinking he could be this year's Phillips. I've got him around .280-25-90-110 runs - 25+ stolens bases (high end projection)

I guess the only question is his health. What do you think about him in the 3rd round? Not the ONLY question (health) but certainly the main one because he is not going to reach anything close to your levels with less than 600 AB and he hasn't had 500 yet in either of his first two seasons.

The other thing he will need for the steals is SBO - depends on how the Rangers lineup shakes out AND plays. Betting on over 20 is not a good idea and I think third round is too high - he is going 4th and 5th round now.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 8:51 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

[QUOTE] The guy who made that pick won a 100,000 more than you playing fantasy baseball last year.

I think Phillips will go mid first round in more drafts than most will expect in 08. I consider KJ Duke to be the Rosa Parks of this trend with Rollins in 07. The thought process being if you jump on Phillips there you get the more scarce thing taken care of and is there that much difference between the player you pass on in round one to get Phillips versus who is left in round 2 rather than "hoping" Phillips is still there. Oh, Chesty, if only I had this post to to throw back at you when you were giving me S about selecting Sheets in 2005. [/QUOTE]You drafted a mid 3rd round pick at pick 5 if I remember- I think you know there is a difference. Plus KJ Duke turned out to be right you turned out to have a finish that no matter how hard you try you can't get past me lifetime for one reason reason Brian- Ben Sheets. I thought you had me in 07... You do hold the key win in our head to head matchup though but I would rather avoid you in the main event you know too much about me so maybe we will both join Crazy's satellite league and you will give me a shot at evening the score? [/QUOTE]Check that. Ben Sheets 2005 ADP: #23. It was unlikely he would fall to me in round 2. Not that I do not regret the pick. Yes, you always end up ahead lifetime but it's also always a good competition...and fun. Crazy's draft is too late. I will do one satellite for practice, probably the week before. Also, I've chatted with your buddy about strategy and so forth as we were assuming we were not going to be in the same league so it would probably be inappropriate to join now. Don't forget, you and I may very well end up in the same league in Vegas anyway! [/QUOTE]I got a catch 22 with satellites- I want to give Crazy the Bad News Kennel treatment but his drafts are a little later than I would like them to be, much later at night than anyone with a 4 month old needs to be up, and if I ask him to move and he agrees a lot of people who signed up b/c they want to beat him have to move too, lastly no way he has the self control not to blab everyone's picks on these boards IE Zaleski with you Brian a few years ago.

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 8:51 am

I don't think there's a single team in that draft that I love every pick of (or hate every pick of)... but I like teams 5 and 3 the best and I dislike teams 4, 11, and 15 the most.

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 8:52 am

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

[QUOTE] The guy who made that pick won a 100,000 more than you playing fantasy baseball last year.

I think Phillips will go mid first round in more drafts than most will expect in 08. I consider KJ Duke to be the Rosa Parks of this trend with Rollins in 07. The thought process being if you jump on Phillips there you get the more scarce thing taken care of and is there that much difference between the player you pass on in round one to get Phillips versus who is left in round 2 rather than "hoping" Phillips is still there. Oh, Chesty, if only I had this post to to throw back at you when you were giving me S about selecting Sheets in 2005. [/QUOTE]You drafted a mid 3rd round pick at pick 5 if I remember- I think you know there is a difference. Plus KJ Duke turned out to be right you turned out to have a finish that no matter how hard you try you can't get past me lifetime for one reason reason Brian- Ben Sheets. I thought you had me in 07... You do hold the key win in our head to head matchup though but I would rather avoid you in the main event you know too much about me so maybe we will both join Crazy's satellite league and you will give me a shot at evening the score? [/QUOTE]I think it would be a lot of fun jarring with you and Bjoak in a satellite. I really think it would make things more interesting, increase motivation and such.

Just to let you know, I'm changing my March 6th satellite to Feb. 19th Winner-Take-All as I have to get my fix in early because I'm starting to shake. So much fantasy baseball talk, it kills me having to wait 2 more months.

So, I will have a Feb. 19th and March 26th satellite. My thinking there is I would like to have a draft before spring training and right before the season starts to see if my draft approach changes. I'm trying to find out what my weaknesses are and maybe I can fix them by the time my 2nd draft comes along. I guess that's what mock drafts are for but it doesn't have the same feel as a real one.

Side note, I see you and Bjoak are having a mock draft later in the week. I'm curious who called themselves (reverse of my name). I thought it was funny.

I would love for both of you to join.

Hopefully I can win one of the two satellites (sound different from last year's guarantee) and meet up with you guys for a drink in Vegas in 2009.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 9:00 am

Originally posted by Captain Hook:

Okay - let's see if the formatting holds here.

First three rounds - which teams do you like? hate?

1...A. Rodriguez.Rios........Figgins

2...Pujols.......Granderson..Webb

3...Wright.......Berkman.....Abreu

4...H. Ramirez...Peavy.......Byrnes

5...J. Reyes.....Fielder.....Markakis

6...Rollins......C. Lee......I. Suzuki

7...Utley........Beltran.....Ordonez

8...Holliday.....V. Guerrero.B. Roberts

9...B. Phillips..V. Martinez.M. Ramirez

10..M. Cabrera...Sizemore....Beckett

11..R. Braun.....Tulowitzki..D. Lee

12..R. Howard....B.J. Upton..Jeter

13..A. Soriano...R. Martin...T. Hunter

14..J. Santana...D. Ortiz....A. Ramirez

15..Crawford.....Teixeira....Furcal I'll take #1, 5, and 11, though I'm not conviced you'd have an easy to moderate time finding those picks together in most drafts. I wouldn't be too happy with 2, 6 (lack of power), 8, 12, or 15. I don't think Granderson, Webb, Ichiro, Roberts, Upton, or Furcal will give back value there.

[ January 12, 2008, 03:07 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 9:01 am

Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

quote:Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

[QUOTE] The guy who made that pick won a 100,000 more than you playing fantasy baseball last year.

I think Phillips will go mid first round in more drafts than most will expect in 08. I consider KJ Duke to be the Rosa Parks of this trend with Rollins in 07. The thought process being if you jump on Phillips there you get the more scarce thing taken care of and is there that much difference between the player you pass on in round one to get Phillips versus who is left in round 2 rather than "hoping" Phillips is still there. Oh, Chesty, if only I had this post to to throw back at you when you were giving me S about selecting Sheets in 2005. [/QUOTE]You drafted a mid 3rd round pick at pick 5 if I remember- I think you know there is a difference. Plus KJ Duke turned out to be right you turned out to have a finish that no matter how hard you try you can't get past me lifetime for one reason reason Brian- Ben Sheets. I thought you had me in 07... You do hold the key win in our head to head matchup though but I would rather avoid you in the main event you know too much about me so maybe we will both join Crazy's satellite league and you will give me a shot at evening the score? [/QUOTE]I think it would be a lot of fun jarring with you and Bjoak in a satellite. I really think it would make things more interesting, increase motivation and such.

Just to let you know, I'm changing my March 6th satellite to Feb. 19th Winner-Take-All as I have to get my fix in early because I'm starting to shake. So much fantasy baseball talk, it kills me having to wait 2 more months.

So, I will have a Feb. 19th and March 26th satellite. My thinking there is I would like to have a draft before spring training and right before the season starts to see if my draft approach changes. I'm trying to find out what my weaknesses are and maybe I can fix them by the time my 2nd draft comes along. I guess that's what mock drafts are for but it doesn't have the same feel as a real one.

Side note, I see you and Bjoak are having a mock draft later in the week. I'm curious who called themselves (reverse of my name). I thought it was funny.

I would love for both of you to join.

Hopefully I can win one of the two satellites (sound different from last year's guarantee) and meet up with you guys for a drink in Vegas in 2009. [/QUOTE]I am not in any mocks and will not be in any- to me they are a waste of time.

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 9:02 am

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

quote:Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

You could be right Chest. You've gotta love that park he plays in.

I'm pretty big on Kinsler as well. He has developing power, and he looks like he could have a very big breakout in 2008. I'm kind of thinking he could be this year's Phillips. I've got him around .280-25-90-110 runs - 25+ stolens bases (high end projection)

I guess the only question is his health. What do you think about him in the 3rd round? I think you are telling way too much about guys you like on these boards and it may come back to haunt you in your drafts. I do think you could make a case that Kinsler is similar and a guy worth jumping on in late round 3 instead of hoping in round 4. I personally will have to get great value to jump on any 2b in the first 10 rounds- great value plays after the first turn IMO and you can never have enough of those. [/QUOTE]I don't think he is playing in main this year. Is he? [/QUOTE]No, I'm not. But I think Chest is referring to my satellites. As far as coming back to haunt me, it could, but I think most people think I'm Crazy anyway and it's one ear and out the other. I think if I were playing in the Main this year I would be more tight lipped for sure. But I'm in learning mode now and I feel it's better to bounce ideas off you guys (even if it does show my hand) than to hold back.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 9:08 am

Crazy,

I think I stayed in Rohnert Park, CA about 25 years ago. I wish I saw more of San Fran when I was there.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 9:11 am

Apparently I have a lot of admirers who like to pose as me (bjoak, chance favors, the prepared mind, etc.) as well as haters who've titled mocks things like DEATH TO BJOAK!!!, but I am with Chest--I don't do them much if at all and I'm not scheduled.

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 9:21 am

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

Crazy,

I think I stayed in Rohnert Park, CA about 25 years ago. I wish I saw more of San Fran when I was there. San Francisco is a lot of fun. Pier 39 is my favorite place there.

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 9:25 am

We should all hoist a brew for Greg - freezing his moustache off at Lambeau today

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 9:31 am

I am going to dinner in North Beach and then out to see Speed the Plow in SF tonight. It is nice to have access to a vacation destination, though I wouldn't want to live there. Pier 39 is a tourist trap to me. I have yet to go to Alcatraz (if I wanted to see a jail, I'd rob a bank) or ride on a trolley.