Todd Zola Will Chat Today At 2 PM EST

GOD Loves You · Post by **GOD Loves You** » Thu Feb 28, 2008 6:33 am

You've taken some bashing due to your "expert" title........have you done anything different to prepare yourself this season, compared to past seasons?

And where is Cindy?

Sack · Post by **Sack** » Thu Feb 28, 2008 6:34 am

Todd:

Is it a knee jerk reaction to last season for us to be looking at three shortstops in the Top Five picks this year according to the ADP results to date? Second, are the two top Catchers going earlier than you would expect in a Serpentine Draft?

As a policeman and one big guy to another - Chocolate Frosted or Jelly next weekend in New Jersey for the Forum? Cya soon.

Ken/Sack

[ February 28, 2008, 01:06 PM: Message edited by: Sack ]

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Thu Feb 28, 2008 6:35 am

Why does the industry seem to love the OPS stat? It double counts bases from singles; I can't embrace statistical impurity. It's a bad stat, like a PE-to-Growth ratio. Wouldn't something like total bases per plate appearance make more sense? What do you use in evaluating batter contribution?

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Thu Feb 28, 2008 6:36 am

Does Barry Bonds get a start somewhere? What would he be worth? Does he? I don't know. There are enough players out there for me to roster, I don't feel I need to speculate on Bonds, trying to get 12th round value from my 20th pick.

I don't see more than 200 AB/15 HR.

GOD Loves You · Post by **GOD Loves You** » Thu Feb 28, 2008 6:38 am

What are you thoughts on a player in Tout Wars who has admitted he's NEVER....yes, NEVER won a single fantasy baseball league in his life??

Should this person be allowed to participate in such a league AND when are they going to start inviting players who are consitently winning both leagues and money??

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Thu Feb 28, 2008 6:39 am

Originally posted by ToddZ:

quote: What is the draw to AL or NL only leagues? For me, it is the fact you have to be familiar with the entire 25-man roster and also stay on top of roster movement.

In addition, I think more emphasis needs to be placed on the draft with respect to risk-taking, especially pitching, as you margin of error is smaller as the replacement pool is not nearly as plush as mixed leagues.

The downside is one or two injuries and you can be FUBAR.

I DO NOT believe single leagues are "harder". The quality of your fellow competitors dictates the level of competition, regardless of the format. [/QUOTE]I learned a new word today. Thanks.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Thu Feb 28, 2008 6:40 am

Todd - Thanks for your time.

1) You are a good guy, and I am interested in what's next for Todd Zola (Greg briefly touched on something with your job)?

2) Is this your year in the NFBC? If so, why?

3) Childs or Gekko? Pick one

4) What is your KDS as of today?

5) What career possibilities exist at FantasyBaseball.com if GG wanted to take it to the next level?

Thanks Todd

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Thu Feb 28, 2008 6:40 am

Todd, who is your "Rollins" type pick this year in Rd 1? Honestly, I don't see one. IF Pujols is healthy, I see 9 guys I really like, then there is an element of risk associated with the next tier of guys. As mentioned before, Pujols is now in the risky category.

But there are guys in later rounds I would jup their ADP to roster, which is what I did with Rollins last season.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Thu Feb 28, 2008 6:40 am

Originally posted by ToddZ:

quote: Todd, who is your "Rollins" type pick this year in Rd 1? Honestly, I don't see one. IF Pujols is healthy, I see 9 guys I really like, then there is an element of risk associated with the next tier of guys. As mentioned before, Pujols is now in the risky category.

But there are guys in later rounds I would jump their ADP to roster, which is what I did with Rollins last season. [/QUOTE]

Cowboy Joe · Post by **Cowboy Joe** » Thu Feb 28, 2008 6:41 am

Todd,

Look forward to meeting you in a couple of weeks.

How do you approach valuing players who are involved in spring battles for starting positions (e.g., Pirates CF)?

GOD Loves You · Post by **GOD Loves You** » Thu Feb 28, 2008 6:41 am

Last ones from me.....Ryan Sweeney or Chris Denorfia...who has a better season and why?

Also, will the tribe actually give Ben Francisco a shot this season?

Over/under on wins by the Rays this season?

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Thu Feb 28, 2008 6:45 am

Are stolen bases still the most valuable in your Projections? Depends what you mean by most valuable. The pool of steals is unique in that a small percentage of players are responsible for a large percentage of the total. This adds value to SB specialists. Value is just that, value. Value doesn't win, balance wins.

You need to pick and choose where you get your value. Once a SB guy is on your team, the relative value of SB TO YOU drops.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Thu Feb 28, 2008 6:49 am

You've taken some bashing due to your "expert" title........have you done anything different to prepare yourself this season, compared to past seasons? Yeah, I've decided to pick better players than in previous seasons.

Seriously though, my duties at the site have changed this season, and I am MUCH more involved with the projection process. I always knew the pool and what I thought a guy would do, but now I have a better feel for the upside and downside associated with each player -- so I am not just taking a stat line and putting that towards a target, I am looking to not only balance categories, but also risks.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Thu Feb 28, 2008 6:50 am

Who was the first to coin the now fun to say "Judy"?

Some dude named Childs.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Thu Feb 28, 2008 6:50 am

Originally posted by GOD Loves You:

With the way Congress has handled all the b.s. proceedings/wasting of tax dollars, are you at all concerned with how they handle other things in our country? . Insert another FUBAR reference here.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Thu Feb 28, 2008 6:52 am

Originally posted by ToddZ:

quote: Who was the first to coin the now fun to say "Judy"?

Some dude named Childs. [/QUOTE]... the term was started by Walter Alston, Dodger mgr, referring to what W McCovery was NOT, a "punch and judy" hitter. The "punch" was later dropped.

[ February 28, 2008, 01:03 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Thu Feb 28, 2008 6:52 am

Do you think any of these guys will put up better #'s than Randy Winn this year Bruce/Rasmus/Maybin/C.Gomez ? yes/yes/no/no

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Thu Feb 28, 2008 6:55 am

Originally posted by ToddZ:

quote: Do you think any of these guys will put up better #'s than Randy Winn this year Bruce/Rasmus/Maybin/C.Gomez ? yes/yes/no/no [/QUOTE]What do you see for C.Gomez?

Walla Walla · Post by **Walla Walla** » Thu Feb 28, 2008 6:55 am

What's new on the AVG projections. Have you made any headway on your search for the perfect projection?

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Thu Feb 28, 2008 6:56 am

Originally posted by ToddZ:

quote:You've taken some bashing due to your "expert" title........have you done anything different to prepare yourself this season, compared to past seasons? Yeah, I've decided to pick better players than in previous seasons.

Seriously though, my duties at the site have changed this season, and I am MUCH more involved with the projection process. I always knew the pool and what I thought a guy would do, but now I have a better feel for the upside and downside associated with each player -- so I am not just taking a stat line and putting that towards a target, I am looking to not only balance categories, but also risks. [/QUOTE]Zola is the #1 guy I don't want to see in my main event league this year. Seriously. He's like a slugger that put up a BABIP of around 25% last season, due.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Thu Feb 28, 2008 6:56 am

Being more of an insider to the NFBC than I...do they ask big winner players to send in a picture holding a piece of wood measuring, say 3 feet...and then superimpose the "Big Check" into their hands?

...or do they fly them out somewhere to take those photos?

I enjoy the evolution of the Mag photos including daughters, grandkids, dogs, funny costumes. More personal and fun to see each Mag.

~Lance

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Thu Feb 28, 2008 6:57 am

Is it a knee jerk reaction to last season for us to be looking at three shortstops in the Top Five picks this year according to the ADP results to date? Second, are the two top Catchers going earlier than you would expect in a Serpentine Draft?

As a policeman and one big guy to another - Chocolate Frosted or Jelly next weekend in New Jersey for the Forum? Cya soon.

Not so much knee-jerk as basing too much on last year and not what we think will be done this year.

For those with the #1 pick, think about the last player ranked #1 overall in March that finished the year #1.

Just sayin....

Catchers -- early that I would EXPECT? No. Earlier than I would take them? ABSOLUTELY.

Donuts -- For me, donuts are simply a means to hold jimmies.

Looking forward to the NY forum. We had a great time in SF and LA.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Thu Feb 28, 2008 7:02 am

Why does the industry seem to love the OPS stat? It double counts bases from singles; I can't embrace statistical impurity. It's a bad stat, like a PE-to-Growth ratio. Wouldn't something like total bases per plate appearance make more sense? What do you use in evaluating batter contribution?

OPS is easy and makes you sound smart if you use it and not BA. Personally, in terms of real baseball, I'm not sure a single stat works - leadoff hitters have different responsibilities than heart of the order guys.

As for fantasy, I use contact rate, walk rate, BABIP (learning how to break it down into FB/GB/LD components) and HR/contact and HR/FB.

Raskol · Post by **Raskol** » Thu Feb 28, 2008 7:03 am

Hi Todd--

Thanks for chatting. Rank these 2nd tier shortstops who seem to be going in similar rounds (4th-5th):

M. Young

Tejada

Guillen (still eligible)

Jeter

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Thu Feb 28, 2008 7:03 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

Being more of an insider to the NFBC than I...do they ask big winner players to send in a picture holding a piece of wood measuring, say 3 feet...and then superimpose the "Big Check" into their hands?

...or do they fly them out somewhere to take those photos?

I enjoy the evolution of the Mag photos including daughters, grandkids, dogs, funny costumes. More personal and fun to see each Mag.

~Lance Just win baby and you're all set up -

www.taylors-shop.co.uk/acatalog/7077-te ... e-300c.jpg