Second Basemen: Fact Or Fiction

[Crazy Like a Fox]

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

quote:Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

quote:Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

The second base position is top heavy with three possible Top 20 picks in Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia and Chase Utley, but it falls off quickly after that and then gets interesting later on. Last year there were some nice surprises at the second base spot and in our continuing Fact or Fiction debate we'll look at a few of those key players:



Mike Aviles: Aviles qualifies at 2B and SS this year and is scheduled to start at SS this year for the Royals. He was consistently good since his callup in June, never hitting lower than .308 for any of the four months he was in the big leagues and finishing .325-10-51-8 with 68 runs in 102 games. But 27-year-old rookies scare me. He had just 18 walks in 419 at-bats and the only time he hit above .300 in the minors was in 2003 in Rookie ball. There’s no way he repeats the high average in 2009 as pitchers will figure this guy out. Fluke.



Robinson Cano: Cano isn’t the first player to sign a big contract and then press to justify it. He was benched for not running out groundballs and his defense was even shaky in 2008. For someone who is as aggressive at the plate as Cano (only 26 walks in 597 ABs), it’s tough to consistently post an OBP above .350. He’s slightly better than a .271 average (.271-14-72-2 with 70 runs last year), but the power numbers are more in line with what you can expect going forward. Fact.



Mark DeRosa: What’s not to like about DeRosa? Traded to Cleveland last week, he will now start at third base for the Tribe and continue to play multiple positions if needed. As long as he stays healthy and bats in the middle of this solid lineup, the power numbers should continue. He hit .316 at Wrigley with power numbers equal on the road and at home. His plate discipline last year was similar to previous seasons and as long as he can stay healthy this versatile player (he qualifies at 2B, 3B and OF) will be a great pickup again in 2009. Fact.



Dustin Pedroia: He's the reigning AL MVP, he's going in the Top 20 in most NFBC off-season drafts and he's not clear of this scrutiny. Pedroia has blown me away with his tenacious plate discipline as I never saw this coming over the last two years. But you watch him foul off pitch after pitch until he gets something to drive and you know this guy is for real. Over the last two years he's hit .317 and .326 with an OBP of .380 and .376. He's stolen 27 bases in 29 attempts and scored 86 and 118 runs. Just 25, he may never duplicate last year's MVP season, but I wouldn't bet against this guy at all. Fact.



Rickie Weeks: The Brewers are smart enough not to give up on this guy, but their patience is running thin. He's hit .245 over the last four full seasons with 419 strikeouts and only 214 walks. He's learned to work the count a little better these last two years, but his free-swinging ways are still brutal. If he could get on base more he'd run more as he's converted 85% of his steal chances (78 of 92), but they don't give you first base for free. Just 26 and in his sixth season in the majors, Weeks has potential to be a bargain play here, but what you saw last year (.234-14-46-19) is probably what you'll see this year. Fact. Regarding Aviles, the comment "the only time he hit above .300 in the minors was in 2003 in Rookie ball" is completely incorrect. He's hit .300+ in 3 out of 6 seasons in the minors and missed it by 4 points in one of those seasons. I don't think you can simply say, he never hit .300 in the minors so he won't repeat again. Hanley Ramirez never hit more than 8 homers in any minor league season, and he's hitting 30+ per year now. Now, I don't think you can necessarily pro-rate his numbers and come up with what he will do in 2009 but he's clearly a free swinger who makes good contact. Why can't he hit .290-15-75-10. Sure, chances are he won't hit .310 but he should hit for a solid average and make any team owner happy with better than decent numbers across the board. [/QUOTE]Crazy, I'm not sure where you're looking for Aviles' minor-league stats, but here's what the Baseball Register says for Aviles:



2003, Rookie League, .363

2004, Class A, .300

2005, Double-A, .280

2006, Triple-A, .264

2007, Triple-A, .296



I already said what he hit again at Omaha last year before his callup. Aviles will be 28 in March, so comparing his minor-league numbers to Hanley Ramirez isn't a fair comparison. Aviles is already at an age where it's very possible "what you see is what you get." Ramirez was still developing when he was traded to the Marlins. [/QUOTE]I misread. When you said "the only time he ever hit above .300 was in 2003" I was thinking .300 and above, as he did in 3 out of 6 seasons and would have done it in 4 out of 6 seasons in the minors if not missing by 4 points in one season.



I wasn't comparing his numbers to Hanley, I was just arguing the point that just because he has never accomplished a certain feat in the minors does not necessarily mean it will never happen in the majors. You make a good point that he is 27, so he might be peaking here. We'll see.



No harm done. I enjoy the fact/fiction. It spurs discussion. And it's good to see you on here. Don't be a stranger on the message boards. Always nice to hear fresh topics.