Todd Zola Live Chat: Wednesday 7 P.M. EST

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Wed Feb 04, 2009 10:48 am

Originally posted by ToddZ:

Based on the early ADPs, the two names that stick out to me are Evan Longoria and Dustin Pedroia. why is pedroia a reach?

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Wed Feb 04, 2009 10:49 am

what round would you consider wieters in?

751542 · Post by **751542** » Wed Feb 04, 2009 10:50 am

mr zola.....how are you my friend?? glad to have you aboard!!! you mentioned a couple of weeks ago you may have some insight as to how the 2 new ny stadiums may play, hiiters vs pichers vs. nuetral can you tell me at this moment what your thoughts are?? also, will you be blessing us with your presence in york pa this weekend?? thank you RT

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 04, 2009 10:56 am

Originally posted by rkulaski:

Todd,

I think most NFBCers can draft a solid team in rds 1-10 of the main. While the draft cannot be won alone through the first 10 rounds, it can be lost in my opinion. It appears that what separates the best NFBCers from the pack on draft day is finding gems that return tremendous value. Taking last year as an example, players like Youkilis drafted in the 14th rd that returns 4th rd value.

Examining the previous minor and major league statistics (especially 2007) for Pedroia and Youkilis, did the breakout season that each player enjoyed in 2008 surprise you? Were there any trends in the stats that fellow nfbc'ers could've/should've picked up on??

I had my reasons for drafting Youkilis but I did not see Pedroia's breakout coming at all. My co-manager says that there was no way to look at Pedroia's previous stats and know that such a breakout was coming in 2008. Maybe if you look at the positive trends in slugging and ground ball/fly ball ratios, maybe you could argue you foresaw a breakout. Do you agree/disagree and why?

Thanks,

Rich, Nashville TN

Lifetime Standings: 104th place Pedroia - no, did not see this coming, especially 20 of 21 bags. I viewed him as Polanco with slightly better counting stats. The solid contact rate was a great sign, but there were no "tells" the power would follow, to the extent it did. Doubles? Yes, the park is catered to his swing, but the dingers were surprising. And thus it is a risk to assume further growth, let alone even sustaining that level.

Youkilis - I am less surprised, as we saw a glimpse of the power potential in the 2007 playoffs. Youk's eye was made famous in Moneyball. His contact rate is very good. He's a big guy. All that was needed for an increase in power was a slight change in approach, looking to drive/loft more balls. This is easier said than done, but with the combination of discipline and good contact skills, at minimum, he fit the profile of someone capable of such a spike.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 04, 2009 11:00 am

Originally posted by rkulaski:

Todd,

What are your thoughts on KDS right now for the main? Top 5, middle, or end?

Any players you don't like in the first or second rounds that might be overvalued? Longoria at the end of the first rd seems too early. Right now, I have Hanley a clear #1 so I would begin my KDS with "1".

After that, I love the 6-8 spot, taking Braun, Sizemore or MiggyC, assuming Reyes, ARod, Pujols and Wright round out the top-5.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 04, 2009 11:01 am

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

When I say this years Josh Hamilton? Who is the first person that pops in to your head? Every year a new face jumps in to the first round give me your best guess for who that guy is in 2010? Matt Kemp.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 04, 2009 11:05 am

Originally posted by Sack:

Todd:

What effect will this years WBC have on the players taking part, specifically the pitchers? Will they be at any more risk to either injury or burnout as the season goes forward? Will these added games play into your decisions at the table come March? Injuries aside, of course.

Thanks, KM The global data from the first WBC is not really conclusive. Some participants struggled, some excelled. Some got hurt, some didn't. But the frequency was really no different than any other season. Was there a pitcher that got hurt due to the WBC? Probably. Was there another one that took advantage and vaulted into a great start? Probably. But is this predictable? Not for me, sorry.

As such, while I will follow the tourney and look for possible situations, I am not predetermining anything, solely based on their participation.

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Wed Feb 04, 2009 11:09 am

todd,

which do you prefer, auction or snake? and why?

bill

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Wed Feb 04, 2009 11:09 am

Michael Young or Derek Jeter?

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Wed Feb 04, 2009 11:10 am

better chance of getting 100 rbi: E.Encarnacion or M.Jacobs

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 04, 2009 11:14 am

Originally posted by Terry Haney:

Todd, Thanks for taking the time to share your thoughts with us and congratulations on the launch of your new web site. How about explaining to us what we can expect with a pay subscription.

Are you going to be a speaker at Shandler's First Pitch Forums this year? If so which cities will you be at?

You've said in the past that you don't use draft/auction software during a draft/auction, why is that?

In the auction format do you have a strategy for the players you nominate for bidding?

There seems to be more statistical data available every year to evaluate players with, it can be as complex as a person chooses to make it, what are the stats that you consider significant other that your basic 5x5?

Thanks in advance.

Terry Haney Real quick, Mastersball.com is back, probably best described as a boutique site, not a one-stop shopping mall. We host a free forum and have been pleasantly surprised with the number of returnees and flattered by the response. We just rolled out projections/values/rankings/profiles on Feb 1 and will continue to update them through the first week of April. We offer an excel-based customizable value calculator and an Excel based standings and roster tracker loaded with our projections, so you can see how you fare in mocks or even NFBC satellites. We offer a detailed description of our projection and valuation methodology and are happy to address questions about this on the forums. We will post some strategy essays in a week and then take "requests" for additional essays. On March 1, we will post our annual NFBC primer, which will feature a great piece by NFBC vet bjoak.

During the season, we will have a daily updated team and player tracker to help facilitate team management and will be updating rest-of-year projections at least once a week.

I will be stalking Ron Shandler across the country again this spring, as I will be speaking at every stop, SF, LA, CLE, CHI, WASDC, NY and BOS.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Wed Feb 04, 2009 11:22 am

Better late round pitching gem for 2009: Tommy Hanson or Gio Gonzalez?

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 04, 2009 11:23 am

The primary reason I do not use drafting software (I do use a laptop) is comfort, as I have not yet taken the time to familiarize myself with the available drafting software. As mentioned, I do use a laptop, but all it does is substitute for a piece of paper and highlighter. The reason I have not yet taken the time to learn the software is the primary reason I would use it would be to track rosters and money, which fortunately for me is done at all the drafts I participate it, be it NFBC, Tout Wars or LABR. I'll make notes at the end of an auction with respect to max bids. I don't care how much I donate or poor I fare in the industry leagues, I refuse to have a PC tell me the best pick, or even suggest who they think is the best pick.

What I don't do in an auction is throw out a name just to get money off the table. That's going to happen naturally. I do try to gauge how much certain types of players will go for -- closers, stolen base guys, etc. I don't hesitate to buy the guys I throw out, but I don't always throw out guys I want either. If I am filled at a position but have my UT open, I may throw out a player from that position so someone doesn't get him at a cheap price later.

With respect to stats, there is SO SO SO much out there now, it is quite cool. But I'm a basic guy, walks and whiffs for both hitters and pitchers tell you most of what you need to know.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 04, 2009 11:27 am

Originally posted by timfrancis:

Todd

In an auction league especially are there any team building strategies that you have tried or wanted to try that you think could be successful?

Such as

LIMA

Punting average

Overspend on pitching

Or do you agree with the usual 190/70 dollar splits???

Thanks

Tim In general, I prefer to bully hitting and manage pitching. I don't have a pre-determined split in mind, other than a cap of what I want to pay for a closer. I spend what I need to build an offense with as few black holes as possible and spend the rest on pitching.

In 4x4 leagues, I would implement a LIMA type strategy, but with respect to my friend Ron Shandler, was doing so before he popularized the term and strategy.

I miss 4x4

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 04, 2009 11:31 am

Originally posted by bluenose:

Todd,

I'm in Atlantic Canada, an hour east of East Coast time. In my local league there appears to be a bias against players the farther away they are from me by timezone. This bias is mild in the draft, but seems very pronounced on the waiver wire. It might be because we're sitting around watching Sox, Yankees, Jays, and when the in-game highlights cut in, they're rarely of West Coast teams, as those games start later.

Is there a general fantasy bias against players who play on the West Coast among fantasy owners on the East Coast and Midwest, or is my league just weird? I honestly don't know. I'm EST guy, living just outside of Boston, but I am a night-owl and have a late game on my PC and on my TV. But you'd think that the fact so many get their news and info from www.rotofillintheblank.com, the time would not matter, but maybe you're right and people are more comfortable picking the guys they see before they fall asleep. Interesting observation.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 04, 2009 11:36 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

Todd,

Thanks for the insight. Anyone can draft a catcher whose last name begins with "M", but what second catcher(s) does your IBM BladeCenter QS22/LS21 Cluster, PowerXCell 8i 3.2 Ghz/Opteron DC 1.8 GHz Super Computer tell you could actually have a chance to help a Main Event team this year? Funny, I usually have a list of names for this question, but I am going to be honest, and this is just my opinion, but the back-end of catching is even more of a cesspool than normal. As such, I am actually looking to get one of the M&M&M&M boys early and someone like Bengie or AJP a little later. Last year, at least in my Main Event league, decent catchers went very late -- I think timing the 2nd catcher run is as important as timing when you take starting pitching or a closer.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 04, 2009 11:45 am

Originally posted by eddiejag:

Todd who will be in the Colarado outfield this year.

Seem's a little crowded ,what do you see.

Seth Smith

Brad Hawpe

Carlos Gonzalez

Ian Stewart

Dexter Fowler

Eric Young jr.

Thank's Here's one of those crystal ball type question. Obviously Hawpe gets his AB and probably from a meatier lineup spot. Stewart's playing time is tied to Helton's health. The Rox just signed Atkins, but last I heard it was for 1-year so he is still trade bait. This puts Stewart up on my flier list.

After that, sorry, but it is really all speculation. Some feel Spilborghs will take advantage of his opportunity and be a great 4th/5th fantasy OF. Some think with a hot spring, Fowler wins the job.

I saw EY Jr at the AFL and was impressed, but I call it the Gookie Dawkins rule and temper my expectations based on a great Fall League. I'd rather draft Seth Smith in the end game of a NL only league than rely on Spilborghs or Gonzalez in a mixed league.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 04, 2009 11:50 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by Captain Hook:

Eddie - you left out the center fielder Todd, who will the Rockies play in center, Spilborghs or Gonzalez? [/QUOTE]I think one plays LF and one plays CF -- not sure which. I just don't see Smith as a starter.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 04, 2009 11:58 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

Todd -

1. How would you rate your overall NFBC success?

2. Are you trying to improve on anything specific (ie prep/management/faab) from last year? If so, what?

3. After 10 years of the NFBC, who do you think will be considered the most feared fantasy baseball player? My success is not what I want it to be, but I am striving to learn more each year. I was weened on auctions and am still (obviously) haven't figured out drafting yet, at least not to the level of the better gamers in the NFBC.

Several NFBC vets have pounded this into me but I am finally getting it, I want to focus less on "value" and more on the big picture. In a draft, you have to be ready for everything, and be ready to react on the spot to best build your team. I know each player in a vacuum as well as anyone. I need to learn how to meld that with drafting dynamics. One thing I am going to do is more mock drafts -- I figure the more times I am faced with a decision, the better the chance I will be faced with a similar decision with 100K on the line.

So long as the NFBC does not become a contact sport, I don't think anyone should be feared.

Navel Lint · Post by **Navel Lint** » Wed Feb 04, 2009 11:59 am

Todd,

Maybe not identical comparisions , but....

Will there be any Cliff Lee's out there this year?

Verlander?

Harang?

Carmona?

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 04, 2009 12:01 pm

Originally posted by KentuckyReign:

todd,

which do you prefer, auction or snake? and why?

bill Prefer auction as it feeds more into my playing strength, but I have a growing appreciation for intricacies and nuances of a draft.

Sack · Post by **Sack** » Wed Feb 04, 2009 12:03 pm

In the Shandler Forecaster, I assume that the R$ column from last season represents a 5x5 price.

If I picked up the book, without that dollar figure filled in, what is the math process required to come up with the R$ figure printed in the book? Example Albert Pujols 2008 R$ = 37

ba: .350 r: 100 hr:37 rbi: 116 sb: 7

524/187

I've had no problems calculating future value, but would like to do the homework a tad earlier next year.

Thanks - Cya in NYC, but stay out of my League this year in Vegas!

[ February 04, 2009, 06:04 PM: Message edited by: Sack ]

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 04, 2009 12:03 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

Michael Young or Derek Jeter? After years of being overvalued, I think this is the year Jeter turns a profit, and that is without intangibles being added as a 6th category. Some see a continual decline, I see a bit of a bounce-back, not to previous levels, but better than 2008.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Wed Feb 04, 2009 12:04 pm

Ginger or Mary Ann?

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 04, 2009 12:09 pm

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

T minus 90 minutes for Lord Zola's live chat. C'mon, load a few more questions up for him and then hit him with fastballs tonight. Remember that Todd is great at breaking down number trends, so feel free to ask a few of those.

Okay, Todd, one more for you:

Since 5x5 Rotisserie doesn't take walks into the equation, do you personally believe that OBP should replace BA in our fine game? Why do you think it hasn't been brought up more often as a statistic change that makes sense? Will Roto ever change nationally from BA to OBP??

Secondly, what does OBP do for you when evaluating certain players? Same thing for OPS and even slugging percentage. Do any of those categories help you forecast future production and standout potential? If so, how? I prefer OBP, as anything that alters a player's value is an advantage for me, at least I like to think so. However, that advantage is a little mitigated as intuitively, guys that walk a lot are more valuable in OBP leagues.

Once OBP replaces BA in the newspaper over HR and RBI, fantasy will adopt it. It is going to need a shift from the present array of commentators to a more SABR-oriented group to 'get the word out'.

I'm not a big BA/OBP/SLP/OPS guy when it comes to future performance as there is too much noise in these numbers.