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Buster · Post by **Buster** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 7:03 am

Scott Zeidman - You drafted a very well balanced team recently in a $125 slow draft. One player on that team is Johan Santana. I'd like to know your outlook for Johan this year, and why you chose him over a hitter. Thank you. Santana was productive last year, but ran into some less than stellar luck. He won 16 games, but had 11 no decisions, mostly due to a poor bullpen. With the additions of Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz, Santana will get more late inning support, meaning that 20 wins is, dare I say, likely. He’s always been among the league leaders in the other categories, making him as safe as they come as a starter. Getting a solid starter without any real question marks makes putting together a staff much easier. I realize that drafting pitching early is dangerous, but that is mostly true due to the fact that pitchers can’t be counted upon. Johan can.

Figure two closers and Johan, and 1/3 of the staff is done. Since pitching is still 50% of the total points, by getting Johan in the second round, I’m up on everyone else. Sure Lincecum might be better, but then again, he might not. There’s no pitcher like Santana right now, who is almost a guarantee. So, while I wouldn’t draft Lincecum, Sabathia, Halladay or Webb in the first two rounds, I would (and did) draft Johan.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 7:04 am

Which order whould you put these pitcher's in.

They all get plenty of k's and if they can put it altogether it's great value this late.

Wandy Rodriquez

Manny Parra

Oliver Perez

Jonathan Sanchez

Buster · Post by **Buster** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 7:05 am

Over/Unders: Ryan Howard BA .275 Ian Kinsler 135 Games played Tim Lincecum 220 K's K-rod 45 saves Matt Holliday 32 homers Howard-- Over

Kinsler-- Over

Lincecum-- Over

K-Rod-- Under

Holliday-- Under

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 7:07 am

Would you trust a 4th round pick on Furcal? If not, when or would you pull the trigger?

Buster · Post by **Buster** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 7:08 am

More home runs, Carl Crawford or Jose Reyes? This is going to be the year that Crawford finally shows the power we have been expecting (hoping). As he has dropped significantly on the draft boards from mid to late first round over the past few years, this is the year that Crawford actually out-earns his draft position.

Brian Walton · Post by **Brian Walton** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 7:08 am

Originally posted by Buster:

quote: If you had a pick between Chris Davis and Dan Uggla for the 2009 season, who would it be and why? As much as I am not an Uggla fan, I’ve got to go with him. As second base is thin, getting a virtual guarantee of 25 or more home runs plus 80 or more RBI at second base, at the point in the draft that both are taken, is well worth it. [/QUOTE]I have to go the other way on this one. Have you noticed scarcity at the corners, especially 1B, too?

One might think second base is the way to go all things equal, but Davis can cover both corners, a valuable commodity as one has to juggle their lineup all season long. I assign a bit of a premium to that versatility.

Player to player, I look at it this way - we probably know what Uggla’s upside is. Davis is just the kind of guy I look for in this competition because there is a bit of the unknown. Both are late 4th or fifth-round picks, in my book.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 7:10 am

Originally posted by Buster:

quote: More home runs, Carl Crawford or Jose Reyes? This is going to be the year that Crawford finally shows the power we have been expecting (hoping). As he has dropped significantly on the draft boards from mid to late first round over the past few years, this is the year that Crawford actually out-earns his draft position. [/QUOTE]Why THIS year, as opposed to others? His ADP has dropped a bit, but why will we see more performance?

Buster · Post by **Buster** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 7:11 am

Which order whould you put these pitcher's in. They all get plenty of k's and if they can put it altogether it's great value this late. Wandy Rodriquez Manny Parra Oliver Perez Jonathan Sanchez 1. Wandy

2. Perez

3. Sanchez

4. Parra

Rodriguez showed signs of truly breaking out on occasion last year. Perez has the potential, the team behind him, and now a bullpen. Sanchez has talent and a good home park (and a great schedule in the NL West). Parra's my least favorite, by far.

Brian Walton · Post by **Brian Walton** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 7:11 am

Originally posted by Buster:

quote: More home runs, Carl Crawford or Jose Reyes? This is going to be the year that Crawford finally shows the power we have been expecting (hoping). As he has dropped significantly on the draft boards from mid to late first round over the past few years, this is the year that Crawford actually out-earns his draft position. [/QUOTE]No argument here. In our base stats in our Kit (not adjusted for league/format), however, we have CC at 14 HR and Reyes at 17. I will say that I think Crawford is a mighty fine pick if he actually falls to the third round…

[ February 17, 2009, 01:11 PM: Message edited by: Brian Walton ]

Brian Walton · Post by **Brian Walton** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 7:13 am

Originally posted by Buster:

quote: What 2 pitchers currently going in the 7+ rounds (besides Billingsley, Gallardo) could join the elite as soon as this year? Let me give you one.

You’ve got to pay careful attention to A.J. Burnett (presently 97th in Mock Draft Central’s ADP). Going to New York will only improve his chances of getting wins. He had 18 last year for an average Toronto team, and 20 wins over the previous two injury marred seasons in Toronto. His strikeouts will remain about the same (231 last year, and 176 in just 166.2 innings in 2006), so you know that with A.J., you will, at a minimum, excel in two categories. His ERA over the past years has hovered around 3.70, and his WHIP has ranged from 1.17 to 1.34. While he isn’t as sexy as a younger pitcher (Burnett is already 32), his upside is up there with the younger guys, and he has a proven track record. [/QUOTE]There is a lot to like about David Price, who has been going out in the 9th or 10th. Though I know some are concerned about his increased workload last season, John Danks is still a favorite of mine. He has been going around the 11th round or so.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 7:15 am

What are expectations from Mike Napoli?

Brian Walton · Post by **Brian Walton** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 7:15 am

Originally posted by Buster:

quote: Can the Mets REALLY be thinking of moving Reyes to the #3 hole, or is that just spring-training sound bite? How does the #3 hole impact Reyes' fantasy value? Does it drop him from top five consideration? No. Every Spring, we hear the same type of thing. “So and so has lost 20 pounds, had lasix surgery and is now the ball looks like a watermelon. He’s going to really break out this year.” Guess what, so and so is still a bum, he couldn’t hit a watermelon off of a tea, and his only breakout is a pinch hit triple in late August. Reyes won’t move to the number three hole, so it won’t impact his fantasy value, and he still should be taken between number four and seven in the draft. [/QUOTE]I agree. Ignore.

Remember a few years ago when there was all that fuss over Ned Yost changing his order in Milwaukee, moving Braun and Fielder around between three and four? As soon as the team or any one of the big guns struggled a bit, the change was blamed. Before you know it, everything was returned to the way it was. Other than Tony La Russa maybe and his pitcher batting eighth, most of these ideas come and go quickly enough.

Net version – I am not worried about it. Reyes remains in my top five.

Buster · Post by **Buster** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 7:17 am

Why THIS year, as opposed to others? His ADP has dropped a bit, but why will we see more performance? Crawford, at 6-2, 210 or so, has the size and strength to hit for power. He showed some of it in 2006, but failed to repeat in 2007. His 2008 was derailed by injury. With added lineup protection, Crawford now fully developed at age 27 (28 in August), and with free agency looming after next season, I believe that now is the time for his power to reappear.

Brian Walton · Post by **Brian Walton** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 7:18 am

Originally posted by Buster:

quote: How badly will McLouth miss Bay and Nady over the course of the whole 2009 season? McLouth’s power dropped significantly after the all-star break (SLG .542 pre, .425 after). How much of this was due to him playing over his head pre-all star break, and how much can be attributed to the loss of Bay and Nady is unknown. His walk rate increased a bit, but not substantially. No matter the reason, McLouth is more likely to hit less than 20 HR than he is to hit more than 25. He’ll still run, but won’t have 2008 value this season. [/QUOTE]Another factor to consider about his dropoff was fatigue. McLouth had as many ABs in 2008 as in 2006 and 2007 combined.

McLouth is mostly going to be sorry the other two moved to good teams while he remains in Pittsburgh! In our kit, we have Nate down for 21 steals and 110 runs scored, both slightly down from 23/113 last year. So, I guess the net answer is “not all that much”.

NorCalAtlFan · Post by **NorCalAtlFan** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 7:18 am

Ellsbury, over/under 50 sb's

Figgins, over/under 50 sb's

Brian Walton · Post by **Brian Walton** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 7:21 am

Originally posted by Buster:

quote: Is it recommended going after one of the big M's at catcher or waiting until later to grab your catchers? For the most part, the M’s are overrated. People keep expecting Mauer to hit for power. Back in 1976, the same people kept saying that the Tampa Bay Bucs would win a game. They didn’t. So in 1977, again we heard that Tampa would win. When the Bucs won, finally, in their 13th game of the year, we heard, “told you so.” Great, they were wrong for the first 26 games, and then they pat themselves on the back in game 27.

Mauer will, one day, hit for some power. I don’t want to spend the draft pick hoping that it is this year. Russell Martin is overrated. His numbers don’t match up to his draft slot. Eighteen stolen bases is great, but not enough to justify a third round pick. Does Martin have the capability of stealing 30? No. Victor Martinez is a question mark. Drafting question marks early is suicidal. Martinez will be drafted based on his prior years. Since he won’t eclipse those years, the best you can do is break even on him. Not the way to succeed. Brian McCann is the only catcher I’d consider early. [/QUOTE]Crazy, I am hoping you aren’t jabbing me here.

I do have reason to be grumpy, though. The night before last year’s draft, I had dinner with our Marc Meltzer and several others in Orlando. By the time we were done chatting, I became convinced to take V-Mart at #25, the earliest I have ever taken a catcher. Needless to say, that set the tone for my 2008 season.

I imagine McCann and Mauer will be gone by the fourth this year, while V-Mart should last a couple of rounds longer. I don’t think I am going that way in 2009.

Buster · Post by **Buster** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 7:23 am

What are expectations from Mike Napoli? Beware Will Robinson. Okay, I'm showing my age. Napoli's numbers last year, if extrapolated, would be fantastic. Too bad we can't extrapolate. Napoli was a career (albeit just 487 at bats) .236 hitter until last season. His .273 average is the high end of his spectrum.

He's also got a significant injury problem, and may have to DH to start the year. Usually, that wouldn't be a problem, but the Angels have four outfielders (Vlad, Hunter, Abreu and Juan Rivera, leaving no real spot for Napoli.

As Napoli will catch, at most, five days a week when/if healthy, and will sit some the first month or so, I'm not biting on him. Plus, I fear a regression back to the .240s.

Buster · Post by **Buster** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 7:24 am

Ellsbury, over/under 50 sb's Figgins, over/under 50 sb's Under for both.

Brian Walton · Post by **Brian Walton** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 7:27 am

Originally posted by Buster:

quote: Tommy Hanson could be the next dominant pitcher we see come through the pipeline. If it's announced he's made the starting rotation before a draft, is taking him in the 15th round a reasonable gamble considering the other pitchers being taken around that spot? “Max Scherzer.” Enough said. Want more, try “Clayton Kershaw.” Great talent, wonderful keeper pitcher, might be solid this year. How much did their owners get out of them last year? Hanson might be fantastic, but young pitcher are notorious for failing to live up to the hype. Even if they pitch well, they are shut down early. Let someone else take this high risk, minimal reward pick in the 15th round. Now, at round 20 or later, well that is a different story. [/QUOTE]Shhh. I saw Hanson for the first time in person during the AFL and was blown away by his talent. I have the first pick in the XFL (Xperts Fantasy League) reserve draft this year (against Greg, ToddZ and other industry wonks) and Hanson may very well be at the top of my list.

I have to disagree with Buster here simply because the question asked assumes Hanson makes the rotation. Scherzer didn’t break camp with the D’Backs last year nor did Kershaw with the Dodgers. Neither had a defined role in April. Heck, Kershaw wasn't up until July!

That is a tremendous difference. 15th might be early, but someone will take Hanson long before 20 if he starts the season in the rotation. Taking smart chances in the second half of the draft is a good thing.

[ February 17, 2009, 01:33 PM: Message edited by: Brian Walton ]

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 7:27 am

You are Milwaukee Management, what do you do with Rickie Weeks?

NorCalAtlFan · Post by **NorCalAtlFan** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 7:28 am

Rank Garza, Slowey, Baker, Danks

Thanks.

Brian Walton · Post by **Brian Walton** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 7:30 am

nt

[ February 17, 2009, 01:32 PM: Message edited by: Brian Walton ]

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 7:34 am

Carlos Gomez

Juan Pierre

Michael Bourne

Co Co Crisp

Which one of these speed guy's do you like best in order.Not the most steals but who's the best overall fantasy player of these four.

Buster · Post by **Buster** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 7:34 am

You are Milwaukee Management, what do you do with Rickie Weeks? Milwaukee Management? No thanks. However, since I've got the job, I give Weeks yet another year to prove what he's got. I am paying him $2.8 million, so I've made a financial investment. I've given him four years, and while his defense has been awful, he has shown flashes at the plate. His OBP is respectable, as he can draw a walk. He's shown enough to demonstrate that given a full year, he'd hit 20 HR. His average is low, but he did hit .279 just two years ago. There's no questioning his talent.

I've gone this long, I'm giving him one more year.

Brian Walton · Post by **Brian Walton** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 7:35 am

Originally posted by Buster:

quote: Ellsbury, over/under 50 sb's Figgins, over/under 50 sb's Under for both. [/QUOTE]Ellsbury over (55), Figgins under (39).