Next Live Chat: Alex Patton, Peter Kreutzer Feb. 24th

[DOUGHBOYS]

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

crazy - why don't you just ask him for his cheatsheets! His questions are better than his answers.

[eddiejag]

Mr Patton how many labor auctions have you won.

Do you put a limit on your pitching ,most people spend anywhere from 40 to 100.

Why dont the expert's ever play in the big money leagues like the NFBC.We did have Meatloaf one year in Vegas but his team dropped like a bat out of hell.

What do you think of these 3 player's.Basically are you buying or passing on these guy's.

Alexi Rameriz

Mike Aviles

Rickie Weeks

thank you

[Peter K.]

Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

Which post-hype player do you see breaking out this year?



Alex Gordon perhaps?



Rickie Weeks? Hi everyone. I'm not really sure how this board works, but it's 2pm, so let's get started.



Crazy Like a Fox asks a lot of questions. Every year I pick Rick Weeks to break out, and I don't see any reason to stop now.



Alex Gordon looks like a good bet this year, too. He's just post hype enough to get hyped about.

[Alex Patton]

Originally posted by MadCow Sez:

Gents, who do you think will be the first closer-in-waiting to bust into the job? Jose Arredondo. Not because Fuentes is awful -- he's not -- but because Arredondo is better.



When Percival goes down, the Rays are going to go to Balfour, not Wheeler.



When Mike Gonzalez goes down, Soriano will be the closer, unless he's also gone down.



In the software, Peter projects Brian Wilson to earn $20 and Sergio Romo to earn $20, even though he projects 31 saves for Wilson and 3 for Romo. Enough said right there.

[Peter K.]

Originally posted by MadCow Sez:

Gents, who do you think will be the first closer-in-waiting to bust into the job? You can look at this the other way around. Who are the current closers most likely to lose their jobs before the season starts.



Troy Percival is breakdown candidate No. 1. He's old, he was hurt last year, he's just starting to train. Plus Balfour is a manager's favorite behind him.

[GoBabyGo]

ALEX:



2 Questions one to hitting and one to pitching:



1) Name or Names of a hitter that could fall in the 20 to 30th round of NFBC that will surprise like similar players drafted within this range last year like HUFF, QUENTIN, and LUDWICK.





2) Same Question as above but change the names to pitchers. As last year in this range you had Volquez, Danks and Cliff Lee for starters.





Thanks in advance.



P.S World Series Match-up would be _____ v ________

[Peter K.]

Originally posted by Alex Patton:

[QUOTE]

In the software, Peter projects Brian Wilson to earn $20 and Sergio Romo to earn $20, even though he projects 31 saves for Wilson and 3 for Romo. Enough said right there. Having the job means a lot, and Romo isn't pushing Wilson aside even if he's that much better. Which I'm putting my chin out there to say that he is.

[Alex Patton]

Originally posted by eddiejag:

Mr Patton how many labor auctions have you won.



Peter Golenbock and I won, or were winning, in 1994. Sorry to say, I haven't in LABR since 1996 (I think).



Do you put a limit on your pitching ,most people spend anywhere from 40 to 100.



Normally around $100.



Why dont the expert's ever play in the big money leagues like the NFBC.We did have Meatloaf one year in Vegas but his team dropped like a bat out of hell.



Because it costs big money to play! But at Ron Shandler's thing in Phoenix last fall, Greg practically had me believing it's the best ROI going in Vegas. No, he did have me believing. But I don't go to the tables either.





What do you think of these 3 player's.Basically are you buying or passing on these guy's.

Alexi Rameriz



I like a lot, but not until the middle rounds.



Mike Aviles



I really like, and would snatch him eaerly in the late rounds. Somebody's going to pounce ahead of you if you try to finess it.





Rickie Weeks



Great late-round pick. Even though I'm not much of a fan. Point being you need upside in the late rounds.



thank you

[Peter K.]

Originally posted by Joe Sambito:

Ken Macha is now managing the Brewers, his history is as a bench coach in Boston, and manger in Oakland, both teams who during his tenure turned a blind eye to the running game. Do you think that is indicative of Macha's style? Can we expect a decrease in Stolen Base attempts from the likes of Weeks, Hart, and Braun? Managers have tendencies, for sure, but the smart ones also play the cards they're dealt. In Boston and Oakland the style was not to run much, and the teams were built that way, and so I'm not sure it tells us anything about how he'll manage in a team that has good speed. The Brewers also have good power, so I would expect the savvy Macha to try to maximize SB efficiency. There will be plenty of steals, but you won't have guys running free if they're also getting thrown out.

[Crazy Like a Fox]

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

crazy - why don't you just ask him for his cheatsheets! His questions are better than his answers. [/QUOTE]I'll take that as a compliment. I'm glad you're curious enough to read them. I hope one day I can be as brilliant as you two knuckleheads.



Oops. I didn't realize I asked 6 questions in a 6 minute frame. I guess I'm making these guys work. Maybe I can put some of these players we're talking about on my cheatsheet.

[Peter K.]

Originally posted by Peter K.:

quote:Originally posted by Alex Patton:

[QUOTE]

In the software, Peter projects Brian Wilson to earn $20 and Sergio Romo to earn $20, even though he projects 31 saves for Wilson and 3 for Romo. Enough said right there. Having the job means a lot, and Romo isn't pushing Wilson aside even if he's that much better. Which I'm putting my chin out there to say that he is. [/QUOTE]Can I quote myself? Yes!



Another point: In the software and draft packages we're flogging, where you'll find that fearless projection for Romo, are also Bid Prices from Alex (4x4), Mike Fenger (5x5) and me (Mixed 12 team 5x5) that show you that the projections are one thing (you need to put down actual numbers) but what we pay is something much different.



In this case, Alex has Wilson for $24 (I have him for $8) and Romo for $4 (he's a reserve pick at best in mixed).

[Alex Patton]

Originally posted by GoBabyGo:

ALEX:



2 Questions one to hitting and one to pitching:



1) Name or Names of a hitter that could fall in the 20 to 30th round of NFBC that will surprise like similar players drafted within this range last year like HUFF, QUENTIN, and LUDWICK.



Eric Byrnes seems to be totally forgotten. Though I've read some scary things about the extent of his injury.



Has there been an Andruw Jones sighting yet? If he's 20-30 -- okay 40 -- pounds lighter...



Hideki Matsui is forgotten man on the Yankees.





2) Same Question as above but change the names to pitchers. As last year in this range you had Volquez, Danks and Cliff Lee for starters.



Possibly Joba? He might slip through for under $10, though that still won't put him anywhere near what the three above cost last year.



If we're talking drafts, not auctions, I'd take Joba early in the middle rounds, just because you need have a big payoff on a couple of your starting pitchers. So-so in mixed leagues doesn't cut it.



I'd take Phil Hughes in the last round. But not Clay Buchholz.





Thanks in advnce.



P.S World Series Match-up would be _____ v ________

[Crazy Like a Fox]

Long pause between answers. Why do I have the feeling they are looking at my questions and doing this.... :rolleyes:

[Peter K.]

Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

Do you recommend drafting a stud SP in the first 4 rounds and who?



If you had to pick your number #1 pitcher from this group, who would it be and why?



Ervin Santana

Chad Billingsley

Yovani Gallardo

Roy Oswalt

A.J. Burnett I think you can make an early pitcher pick work, but it's risky and the point isn't to take the pitcher early, but to take him late for his value.



That means you take hitters until a pitcher is clearly better than the available hitters. If that situation doesn't arise, there isn't a problem these days waiting to get starting pitching.



There are plenty of guys who can round out a staff, making that anchor less important.

[Peter K.]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Peter K.:

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

[qb] Do you recommend drafting a stud SP in the first 4 rounds and who?



If you had to pick your number #1 pitcher from this group, who would it be and why?



Ervin Santana

Chad Billingsley

Yovani Gallardo

Roy Oswalt

A.J. Burnett



I forgot to answer the pick part of the question! I've got Oswalt a tick ahead of Santana, but I like them both, and given their ages and my impression of their health, on draft day I might take Santana first. The other guys are good, but at least a couple ticks down.

[Peter K.]

Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

Long pause between answers. Why do I have the feeling they are looking at my questions and doing this.... :rolleyes: This is an unusual process. Not really a chat, not really bulletin board work. Thanks for the questions, everyone. They're good ones.

[Alex Patton]

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

quote:Originally posted by Walla Walla:

Mr. Patton, You were the man when I started doing Roto Baseball. How do you feel about the changes the game has taken over the last few years. Do you feel the move to 5x5 and mixed leagues has helped or hurt the game?



Helped. You don't have to know what positions Eric Bruntlett qualifies at -- or even who he is -- in mixed leagues.





Wow John In those first two sentences you've managed to insinuate that Mr. Patton is not the man anymore, that he is really old, possibly older than us



that I'm sure of



, and that you don't read him anymore.



And we're off to a flying start!



How do you guys feel about some of the up and comers like Matt Wieters, Alexie Ramirez,and Elvis Andrus?



Big Wieters fan. Moderate Ramirez fan; he's good but I think he's already maxed out. Andrus will get you a few SB this year and down the road may even hit a little,



Positions out of the equation, would you take Jermaine Dye or teammate Ramirez first?



Dye.



Wieters or Posada? [/QUOTE]Wieters.

[Crazy Like a Fox]

Originally posted by Peter K.:

quote:Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

Long pause between answers. Why do I have the feeling they are looking at my questions and doing this.... :rolleyes: This is an unusual process. Not really a chat, not really bulletin board work. Thanks for the questions, everyone. They're good ones. [/QUOTE]I just see 10 minutes between short answers and I'm not sure if you're play online poker at the same time.



I appreciate you guys for taking the time here.

[Alex Patton]

Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

quote:Originally posted by Peter K.:

quote:Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

Long pause between answers.



All I can tell you is, it was easier back when I started and it was all done on the radio.



Why do I have the feeling they are looking at my questions and doing this.... :rolleyes: This is an unusual process. Not really a chat, not really bulletin board work. Thanks for the questions, everyone. They're good ones. [/QUOTE]I just see 10 minutes between short answers and I'm not sure if you're play online poker at the same time.



I appreciate you guys for taking the time here. [/QUOTE]

[Peter K.]

Originally posted by KatMenDo:

What's your February prediction as to what the final 2009 fantasy value of Pablo Sandoval and Gaby Sanchez will be? It's hard not to be sucked into the hype for Sandoval and my projection says he's going to earn $18 this year. But there's a good chance he'll earn a lot less than that, or zip. In the Fantasy Baseball Guide 2009, on sale at leading Barnes and Noble and Walmart stores, and other newsstands, too, I have a bid price of $12 for him. And the panel of experts gives him five picks and no pans.



I'm not getting him for $12.



I'm not a believer in Sanchez for this year. My gut opinion is he'll start the year in the minors and unless the Marlins need him he'll stay there. But the Marlins are saying he's got a shot to win the job, and if he does he becomes an $8 player. What will he earn if he wins the job? $15 if he holds it, $-2 if he doesn't. That's a big range.



In the Patton $ Software and Data Alex has Jacobs with a $9 bid price, so he's clearly more optimistic than I am right now.

[Alex Patton]

Originally posted by Terry Haney:

Hey Alex, I met you in Arizona last fall. When I sat by you at the ballpark I didn't realize you were a fantasy baseball legend, I thought you were just a normal grunt like me.



You've been mentioned in a couple of books I've recently read about fantasy baseball and I've become aware that you have written several books on the subject yourself. I'd like to read one, is there one in particular that you would recommend?



I don't know if you have ever had any involvement with the NFBC but it's a great event. It's quite the sight to walk into the big ballroom on draft day and see tables and draftboards set up to accommodate 10 leagues. I think Greg should charge admission just to watch. I know you live in New York, you might give some thought to checking it out this year.



Good luck with this group and their questions and thanks for taking the time to do it.



Terry Haney Hi, Terry. That was fun in Arizona. You'll still find those books of mine on Amazon. Best is still the first, because all of us were still trying to figure it out back then: Patton's 1989 Fantasy Baseball Price Guide, Simon and Schuster.



See you in Phoenix next fall!

[Peter K.]

Originally posted by Alex Patton:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

quote:Originally posted by Walla Walla:

[qb] Wow John In those first two sentences you've managed to insinuate that Mr. Patton is not the man anymore, that he is really old, possibly older than us



that I'm sure of



, and that you don't read him anymore.



And we're off to a flying start!



How do you guys feel about some of the up and comers like Matt Wieters, Alexie Ramirez,and Elvis Andrus?



Big Wieters fan. Moderate Ramirez fan; he's good but I think he's already maxed out. Andrus will get you a few SB this year and down the road may even hit a little,



Positions out of the equation, would you take Jermaine Dye or teammate Ramirez first?



Dye.



Wieters or Posada? [/QUOTE]Wieters. [/QUOTE]We saw a bunch of Wieters down at the AFL and he's an impressive guy. But he's too young to count on, especially since the Os are saying he's going to start the year in Triple-A. Probably.



Posada isn't entirely healthy, but he's expected to be okay. I'd go with him, though the future belongs to Wieters. Maybe in May.

[huskyfan88]

Fact or Fiction. Matt Kemp will perennially be a 30/30 player beginning this year. Who else besides Grady & Hanley has a shot at it this year?

[Peter K.]

Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

Francisco Liriano, pay big or avoid? Those aren't the only two choices.



Well, his second half was so good maybe they are.



I think you can legitimately push him as far as you have to to get him, and he could be worth it. But there's a lot of risk that goes with that. Someone is going to take it, so the original premise was right.



I'm sensible, so I would avoid, but I like what I see.

[Alex Patton]

Originally posted by huskyfan88:

Fact or Fiction. Matt Kemp will perennially be a 30/30 player beginning this year. Who else besides Grady & Hanley has a shot at it this year? I don't think anyone is going to be 30/30 this year. But if I had to pick one player with the best chance, it would be BJ Upton.