Will ARod be picked in the 1st round?

DiamondKing · Post by **DiamondKing** » Sat Mar 14, 2009 10:13 am

All I know is my grandfather had hip surgery,and he never steals bases anymore.

SluggoJD · Post by **SluggoJD** » Sat Mar 14, 2009 10:20 am

Originally posted by DiamondKing:

All I know is my grandfather had hip surgery,and he never steals bases anymore. LOLOL

Trash talk and misdirection aside, IMO A-Rod is a 4th rounder. If he only misses 2 weeks of the regular season, sure, he's something around 13-20...but if he misses 5 weeks, can't steal, and needs to sit occasionally, that's 25% off his value.

EliGrimmett · Post by **EliGrimmett** » Sat Mar 14, 2009 3:29 pm

For what it's worth (probably not much) AROD was drafted 11th in the 1st round of my satellite draft tonight.

But there were some other extremely weird picks during the draft, so I wasn't surprised really.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Sat Mar 14, 2009 6:21 pm

Originally posted by EliGrimmett:

For what it's worth (probably not much) AROD was drafted 11th in the 1st round of my satellite draft tonight.

But there were some other extremely weird picks during the draft, so I wasn't surprised really. 26th in the one I did..

freddiezee · Post by **freddiezee** » Sun Mar 15, 2009 2:20 am

Judging from the other thread, many people were not happy about getting a pick at the end of the first round. If they don't really like their options, there is a decent chance that one of them will take A-Rod around the turn and use that gamble as a strategy to make up ground on the earlier picks.

I'm not saying that's what I would do - I wouldn't take him until much later - but I am not a big risk taker.

I was all set to pass on Pujols at the end of the first round last year because I didn't want to take a chance of missing two months from my first round pick. Someone else picked him just before me and took me off the hook. It turned out to be a great gamble for that team. A-Rod's situation is a bit different, but it has some similarities in that we can't predict his future pain at all.

Both sides of this could be right - A-Rod could return 2-3 weeks into the season and play the rest of the way and hit 30+ homers, steal a few bases and you know if he play 23 weeks in that lineup he will getting to 100 runs and RBI. Or, he could miss 6 weeks of the season and then have other problems later. Taking him at pick 15 could end up being a great way to make up ground or a great way to play a man short for a decent chunk of the season.

The thread asks where WILL A-Rod go and not where SHOULD he go, so I am going to say that his ADP at the main event falls just before pick 20. In some groups he will go as high at pick 11-12 in some he will last until later on in round 2.

gsjanoff · Post by **gsjanoff** » Sun Mar 15, 2009 4:12 am

There seems to be alot of owners who are not happy with their draft slots incluing myself at 14, but seriously are there any owners out there who don't think they can win from any draft spot?

I can't see anyone risking the money being risked in this contest, if they lacked confidence to win from any draft spot.

where you draft is completely random and even though the bottom end of the draft does look weaker this season than in previous seasons in the early rounds, a case can be made that it actually looks better in the later rounds and at least in my opinon, its hitting on the later round picks that makes the most overall difference in this type of competition.

Its true that you can make a case that those owners who gambled on Pujols last season did very well, and the same may be true this year for those who gamble on ARod, but those who gambled on Cliff Lee and Carlos Quentin last season amongst others, also most likely over-achieved.

Personally I think finding the late rounders is far more significant than worrying or complaining about where you pick in round 1.

swampass · Post by **swampass** » Sun Mar 15, 2009 5:43 am

why oh why are we still comparing Aroid to Pujols? once he got the surgery the comparison has to end. there was theory that pujols was hurt and at some point WOULD get surgery. thats why he fell. he didnt fall because he got surgery and would miss weeks of the season. this comparison is not relevant anymore so please lets stop using it.

as far as arod i have no idea. so he misses 4-6 weeks of the season. doctors say he has an 80-85% chance of finishing the season. my question is at what percentage are you getting arod at? you'd have to assume that sb's will be virtually out of the question. so ill say that you get Aroid at 80-85% for about 70-65% of the season (i got to think he's going to be rested regularly because of hip). i say late 2nd to early 3rd.

maybe "modern medicine" and the wonders of prayer will be enough for him to return to MVP form. i for one will pass.

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Mon Mar 16, 2009 4:49 am

Great thread. I think a solid argument can be made for late 1st all the way through the 4th round. That is where fantasy baseball tests risk tolerance, creativity and knowledge (it sure doesnt get you laid).

Any input on where Utley has been going in $ drafts? Id assume late 1st-early 2d.

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Mon Mar 16, 2009 6:09 am

Anyone complaing about their draft pick is a little bitch.

You can win from any spot, easily. The #1 pick can (at best) get it right and pick the #1 overall player. Everyone else in the first round has a chance to pick a player who is better than they should get.

If you fail to pick that player, you're probably a sheep who followed ADP or a crappy manager who failed to identify value or injury risk. If these things are true, why would you think having a different pick changes that? You're donating money anyway if you can't value players or make creative picks and put a team together.

At #15 slot your job is to find value and build a team with stats you can't find as easily later. So you get Manny Ramirez instead of Pujols? Ok, find a way to make up the .20 batting avg. and 10 runs, 5 HR and 15 RBI... guess what you get to pick again so make it count. Pick something that the guys picking top 5 can't find in the same quantity and off we go - look at you, you're drafting.

Stop being little whiny schoolgirls and spend your time studying how to build a team. If you fail at the end of the draft you'd have failed anywhere else, too. You just have a pretty little excuse to make yourself feel better.

Nice job, princess...

My .02,

Dyv

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Mon Mar 16, 2009 6:15 am

"...look at you, you're drafting!"

"Yes you are, uhyes you are!"

Love it!

[ March 16, 2009, 12:25 PM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Mon Mar 16, 2009 6:21 am

DYV, I think you got the wrong thread...people were evaluating where ARod is being drafted...noone is complaining about draft slot.

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Mon Mar 16, 2009 6:36 am

Originally posted by Schwks:

DYV, I think you got the wrong thread...people were evaluating where ARod is being drafted...noone is complaining about draft slot. The message board all blends together - the "I hate my draft slot" people are reading here too - it'll work out just fine, ty though Schwks A-rod is fundamentally part of late round picking right now, lol. I'll repost this under a new thread, sorry

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Mon Mar 16, 2009 7:33 am

DYV, Whereas I agree with the premise of your post (Dont bitch...you can win from any slot) I do think that guys picking at top of drafts say 1-7, have the head start when you look at options in rds 1, 2, 3. Specifically, 1-7 are getting significantly better players in the first and third whereas the talent in the second is fairly uniform throughout the round. But I agree with you that shrewd players overcome the deficit with smart mid-late rd picks and superiority in FAAB. Ultimately skill should prevail.

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Mon Mar 16, 2009 8:24 am

Originally posted by Schwks:

DYV, Whereas I agree with the premise of your post (Dont bitch...you can win from any slot) I do think that guys picking at top of drafts say 1-7, have the head start when you look at options in rds 1, 2, 3. Specifically, 1-7 are getting significantly better players in the first and third whereas the talent in the second is fairly uniform throughout the round. But I agree with you that shrewd players overcome the deficit with smart mid-late rd picks and superiority in FAAB. Ultimately skill should prevail. You make some dangerous assumptions here I'm afraid...

1. Nobody picked in the top 7 will get injured

2. Your projections are accurate so therefore you KNOW who the top 7 year end players will be

3. People will make good draft picks

What if i get Arod at #15 and he only misses 1 week of playtime?

Here's his Spring training (small sample size) line:

A Rodriguez

7AB, 3 hits, 1R, 1 HR, 5RBI, .545 OBP, 1.143 Slugging, .429 Avg.

Note that's BEFORE he had surgery to get fixed up... do you see this sapping his power somehow AFTER he's recuperated? Do you think with a hardcore athelete background and the best rehab and therapy and help money can buy he won't be on the low end of estimates for recovery?

It could very well be (one example) that picking Arod #15 is the #3 player overall and that draft slot ends up leading people to league titles.

Just as it could be that Pujols gets injured and ruins other people's drafts.

The trick for these owners (like every other) is to nail value... agreed?

I'm a #15 pick (I chose it) and am very much looking forward to rocking the draft.

Just to toss out some names/values:

Surefire top 7 picks: Ryan Braun & Miguel Cabrera, what do you expect them to produce? Let's see how big this dropoff is in guys available at the end of the draft, shall we? I chose #15 slot because I felt after the top player (imo Hanley) the dropoff got severe and then the next 15 players smudged together pretty close so I'd rather have 2 of them than 1. So, let's break this down - give me some stats projections pls!

Ryan Braun vs. Manny Ramirez (clearly 2nd round, right?)

Miguel Cabrera vs. Ryan Howard (ADP around 1.13-1.15?)

Top 6 after Hanley are a small shade better than the next group- but hardly dominant differences.

[ March 16, 2009, 02:36 PM: Message edited by: Dyv ]

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Mon Mar 16, 2009 8:50 am

Dyv, I think when most roto guys evaluate players, they add in factors such as inj risk, upside/age and other question marks.. So while Braun and Manny might post similar numbers, I think everyone agrees that we have not seen the best of Braun yet. The higher the pick, hopefully , the higher the reliability and upside. I like your points and I did well from 14th in sat. last yr (Size, Johan) When I look at the three player combos from first three rds, I think advantae goes to early drafters.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Mon Mar 16, 2009 9:06 am

Are there any solid stats on the success rates of players who select a SP in the first 3 rounds vs. those who do not? I hear "wait on SP" so much I wonder if the people saying it just want sheep to stay sheep.

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Mon Mar 16, 2009 9:11 am

Originally posted by Schwks:

Dyv, I think when most roto guys evaluate players, they add in factors such as inj risk, upside/age and other question marks.. So while Braun and Manny might post similar numbers, I think everyone agrees that we have not seen the best of Braun yet. The higher the pick, hopefully , the higher the reliability and upside. I like your points and I did well from 14th in sat. last yr (Size, Johan) When I look at the three player combos from first three rds, I think advantae goes to early drafters. I'm not going to disagree with this at all - though Braun (specifically) hasn't been a poster boy for health... I wouldn't take Manny over Braun, but it's hardly a death sentence. You better compare even rounds on the value meter (4 rounds, not 3) Hardly fair otherwise

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Mon Mar 16, 2009 9:48 am

Again, this is only my analysis but I feel like from 4 on, the picks are fairly even in value...smaller in comparison.

rockitsauce · Post by **rockitsauce** » Mon Mar 16, 2009 4:58 pm

Originally posted by Dyv:

Miguel Cabrera vs. Ryan Howard (ADP around 1.13-1.15?)

[/QB]I like alot of what yer sellin' Dyv, but bad comparison there. Numbers b/w M. Cabrera & Howard will be similar except for Mig will hit >.300, Ryan will be lucky to hit .275.....and I'm an optimistic Phillie fan!

On the subject of ADP's....if they're derived from the mock drafts on MDC,(I'm doing one rt now and there are 4 actual ppl here, the rest are AI). I wonder how many others have had drafts like this and how accurate these ADP's are after all.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Mon Mar 16, 2009 5:14 pm

I'd take Howard -12 HR in a bet vs. Miggy.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Mon Mar 16, 2009 6:03 pm

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

I'd take Howard -12 HR in a bet vs. Miggy. Really Lance?

rockitsauce · Post by **rockitsauce** » Mon Mar 16, 2009 6:03 pm

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

I'd take Howard -12 HR in a bet vs. Miggy. What does that have to do w/ BA?

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Mon Mar 16, 2009 6:43 pm

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

I'd take Howard -12 HR in a bet vs. Miggy. Really Lance?

[/QUOTE]Well...my personal rulebook says right here...let's see...ah...there...see! "No betting with KJ Duke"

But I do think Ryan Howard is (that silky smooth layer of) HEAD AND SHOULDERS above the rest of the crop of players that is the 2009 MLB player pool! (in power alone)

I called it last year, and I see nothing to change my mind. He is a mountain of a man in his PRIME, and no other player has the same home run potential as he does IMO. I'd be willing to bet the same bet I offered Chest last year that he smartly backed out of. (he wins the HR title again) ...and vs. little old Miggy...I'd give him 12 Home Runs head to head! They'd be tied (with the extra 12) by Mid August.

~Lance

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Tue Mar 17, 2009 12:58 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

Are there any solid stats on the success rates of players who select a SP in the first 3 rounds vs. those who do not? I hear "wait on SP" so much I wonder if the people saying it just want sheep to stay sheep. Lance,

I've got no stats (surprise, surprise). My knock on SP too early is one of contribution. An early bat will generally help in at least three "counting" stat categories (R, RBI, and HR), sometimes four. The counting stat categories are exclusively cumulative (i.e. you can only improve your position my getting more) and therefore tougher in my opinion to manage over the "averaging" categories like BA, ERA, and WHIP. If you get a batter with a good probability to have a good BA too, well, so much the better.

A SP will at best help you in two counting stats and one of those (Wins) is the most dependent on variables outside of the pitchers control. Just look at the what the bullpen problems with the Mets last year did for some of their starters! The two averaging stats CAN be managed quite effectively with later picks.

So, to me, the nod goes to the batters early, say the first four rounds. There is PLENTY of pitching available after that, but there is a definite drop off in batters after the first 45-60 are picked.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Mar 17, 2009 8:09 am

Well, after giving him the benefit of the doubt time after time...I'll now be officially passing on A-Gay in round 2 if he's there.

No straight man poses like this. He's at best bi. He'll probably come out of the closet post MLB career as full gay.