Elvis Andrus

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Mon Mar 23, 2009 4:38 pm

Originally posted by King of Queens:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

glenn - how many of these players were SS? In the modern era, only Reyes and Yount [/QUOTE]Sonny Jackson, too

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Mon Mar 23, 2009 4:42 pm

Stolen bases in the 19th century really don't count as a lot of them would not be credited under todays rules.

Back then, a runner was credited with a stolen base when making an extra base. For example, if the runner was on first base and made it to 3rd base on a single, he was given a stolen base.

In a way, I would like that rule for today's game. Since players are number driven, it would actually make them hustle from first to third instead of coasting into second. I would bet that Bengie Molina would still not get a stolen base.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Mon Mar 23, 2009 4:45 pm

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Stolen bases in the 19th century really don't count as a lot of them would not be credited under todays rules.

Back then, a runner was credited with a stolen base when making an extra base. For example, if the runner was on first base and made it to 3rd base on a single, he was given a stolen base.

In a way, I would like that rule for today's game. Since players are number driven, it would actually make them hustle from first to third instead of coasting into second. I would bet that Bengie Molina would still not get a stolen base. And no, I wasn't present at the time of the rule change.

Dub · Post by **Dub** » Tue Mar 24, 2009 1:25 am

Originally posted by King of Queens:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

22 is much different than 20 for baseball. but maybe those andrus owners don't think so! it's only a matter of time till the curtain comes up!

Based on the above leaderboard for Age 20 through 22, this is absolutely correct. If you go the other way, the totals are even worse:

Age 19 Stolen Bases Leaders

1. Ty Cobb 23 (1906)

2. George Davis 22 (1890)

3. Cesar Cedeno 17 (1970)

Ben Conroy 17 (1890)

5. Ken Griffey 16 (1989)

6. John McGraw 15 (1892)

7. Jack O'Connor 12 (1888)

Robin Yount 12 (1975)

9. Sherry Magee 11 (1904)

10. John Kelty 10 (1890)

Silver King 10 (1887)

Will Smalley 10 (1890)

Scott Stratton 10 (1889)

Age 18 Stolen Bases Leaders

1. Johnny Lush 12 (1904)

2. Scott Stratton 10 (1888)

3. Lew Malone 7 (1915)

Robin Yount 7 (1974)

5. Jimmy Sheckard 5 (1897)

6. Phil Cavarretta 4 (1935)

Ed Kranepool 4 (1963)

John McGraw 4 (1891)

Eddie Miksis 4 (1944)

Sibby Sisti 4 (1939) [/QUOTE]Very hard to refute these type of historical stats that go back 100 years.

In other words if Elvis gets 30 SB's its like a 100 year event. Its like banking on a mega tsunami

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Tue Mar 24, 2009 1:53 am

Originally posted by Dub:

Very hard to refute these type of historical stats that go back 100 years.

In other words if Elvis gets 30 SB's its like a 100 year event. Its like banking on a mega tsunami B-I-N-G-O

BBHQ should be roasted for projecting 43 sb for Andrus. That pick alone will kill some teams. never bet against history!

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Tue Mar 24, 2009 5:00 am

not on the andrus bandwagon- but hanly ramirez stole 51 at 21 i believe. also andrus has great range- but also kicks the ball when he gets to it. he will lead the league in errors and be a very negative player all the way around. next year much better.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Tue Mar 24, 2009 5:02 am

Originally posted by headhunters:

not on the andrus bandwagon- but hanly ramirez stole 51 at 21 i believe. also andrus has great range- but also kicks the ball when he gets to it. he will lead the league in errors and be a very negative player all the way around. next year much better. he was 22

bustouts · Post by **bustouts** » Tue Mar 24, 2009 5:21 am

Like anything else, its risk vs reward....depends where u drafted him. I'd rather have someone with tremendous upside than someone thats average.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Tue Mar 24, 2009 5:36 am

Originally posted by bustouts:

Like anything else, its risk vs reward....depends where u drafted him. I'd rather have someone with tremendous upside than someone thats average. i guess you are right. he might have made sense in the 29th or 30th round. i'm guessing not many owners got him there...

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Tue Mar 24, 2009 7:17 am

OMAR VIZQUEL is the insurance if the kid cant handle it.Remember that!!!!!!!

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Tue Mar 24, 2009 7:20 am

Originally posted by eddiejag:

OMAR VIZQUEL is the insurance if the kid cant handle it.Remember that!!!!!!! Some very wise baseball people are very high on Elvis, but the insurance that made me balk is moving Young back to SS and give Blalock back 3B. They have a couple of guys not named Andruw Jones who could handle DH.

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Tue Mar 24, 2009 10:18 am

Well, if nobody's ever done it before, then clearly it can't happen...

I'm expecting .265 out of him and 35 SB - with potential upside hitting in a bandbox with a lot of offense around him.

btw, I told Michael Phelps to look up who has ever been able to swim for 8 gold medals before and since he couldn't find anyone, he gave one back. He was convinced the data would only permit him 7.

DiamondKing · Post by **DiamondKing** » Tue Mar 24, 2009 10:43 am

Originally posted by King of Queens:

Age 20 Stolen Bases Leaders

1. Jimmy Sheckard 77 (1899)

2. Ty Cobb 49 (1907)

3. Sherry Magee 48 (1905)

4. George Davis 42 (1891)

5. Claudell Washington 40 (1975)

6. Ed Delahanty 38 (1888)

7. John McGraw 38 (1893)

8. Rickey Henderson 33 (1979)

9. Mike Tiernan 28 (1887)

10. Jack Doyle 27 (1890) Ron Leflore could have been on the list.If he was not in prison.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Tue Mar 24, 2009 10:55 am

I took him... Wasn't a pre-draft radar guy at all, but I needed SB at that pick.

I wanted Milledge for these SB's earlier but he went.

You don't move team leader MYoung to 3B unless you're very, very confident.

He hit .295 (.350 obp)in AA ball at the age of 19. That's not an easy thing to do at that age. Hell, he could be 22 for all we know. I'm expecting .250-.260, mostly because of that ballpark, that lineup, and Kinsler hitting behind him. Take those factors out and I buy the negative, historic stuff.

Kinsler can take pitches, so he "could" steal 35. Will he? No one knows. He did steal 54 last year. Also see several Andrus/Kinsler double steal attempts. He's going to run because this team has to score tons of runs to win with their pitching and there's no harm in having Kinsler lead off the next inning if he gets thrown out.

Two very reliable sources tell me he's already a clubhouse fave with tons of energy that this team needs. All these pros outweigh the cons for me right now.

Ryan C · Post by **Ryan C** » Tue Mar 24, 2009 11:21 am

Originally posted by Dyv:

Well, if nobody's ever done it before, then clearly it can't happen...

I'm expecting .265 out of him and 35 SB - with potential upside hitting in a bandbox with a lot of offense around him.

btw, I told Michael Phelps to look up who has ever been able to swim for 8 gold medals before and since he couldn't find anyone, he gave one back. He was convinced the data would only permit him 7. I like Andrus - just not where guys were reaching to get him.

And the Phelps analogy while cute isn't relavant. Phelps had already gone 7 for 7 with 6 gold medals in the previous Olympics - so the 8 Golds was well within his reach and he was already the best swimmer in the world. Not a rookie who'll be facing MLB pitching for the first time.

NorCalAtlFan · Post by **NorCalAtlFan** » Tue Mar 24, 2009 11:22 am

Andrus, the JR Towles of 2009? Hmmmmmm.

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Tue Mar 24, 2009 11:29 am

Originally posted by Ryan Carey:

And the Phelps analogy while cute isn't relavant. Phelps had already gone 7 for 7 with 6 gold medals in the previous Olympics - so the 8 Golds was well within his reach and he was already the best swimmer in the world. Not a rookie who'll be facing MLB pitching for the first time.Seriously, you took an olympic swimming vs. MLB rookie analogy that deep? Point is previous history is a fine indicator but hardly any 'proof' of what a player can do. So the dude is fast and we all agree he can get on base 30% of the time. With 450 at bats and getting on base 150 times why can't he steal 35 times? Seems silly to point out 'nobody has done it in the past' from the SS position and feel good about it.

The Mighty Men · Post by **The Mighty Men** » Tue Mar 24, 2009 11:42 am

Originally posted by JohnZ:

Two very reliable sources I really need to find me some of these.

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Tue Mar 24, 2009 11:52 am

Originally posted by Dyv:

'nobody has done it in the past' With over 120 years worth of data, this seems like a great argument to me!

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Tue Mar 24, 2009 11:56 am

Originally posted by King of Queens:

quote:Originally posted by Dyv:

'nobody has done it in the past' With over 120 years worth of data, this seems like a great argument to me! [/QUOTE]bah, 10 have stolen 35+ bases in MLB history, just not as a SS before

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Tue Mar 24, 2009 12:01 pm

Originally posted by Dyv:

quote:Originally posted by King of Queens:

quote:Originally posted by Dyv:

'nobody has done it in the past' With over 120 years worth of data, this seems like a great argument to me! [/QUOTE]bah, 10 have stolen 35+ bases in MLB history, just not as a SS before [/QUOTE]Something else to chew on:

Most of the players that enter the league as regulars by their Age 20 season wind up having Hall of Fame careers. Think Robin Yount, Alex Rodriguez, Ken Griffey Jr, etc. Is Elvus Andrus that type of player?

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Tue Mar 24, 2009 12:03 pm

Originally posted by King of Queens:

quote:Originally posted by Dyv:

quote:Originally posted by King of Queens:

quote:Originally posted by Dyv:

'nobody has done it in the past' With over 120 years worth of data, this seems like a great argument to me! [/QUOTE]bah, 10 have stolen 35+ bases in MLB history, just not as a SS before [/QUOTE]Something else to chew on:

Most of the players that enter the league as regulars by their Age 20 season wind up having Hall of Fame careers. Think Robin Yount, Alex Rodriguez, Ken Griffey Jr, etc. Is Elvus Andrus that type of player? [/QUOTE]He sure won't be this year, hehe. I'd take solid production

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Tue Mar 24, 2009 12:06 pm

The job for the Rangers promotions department becomes very easy if Elvis is a hit.

'Blue Suede Shoes Night'- The Rangers all wear blue shoes. All fans wearing blue shoes get in for half price

Hounddog Night- Similar to the bring a dog nights in other ballparks

Burning Love/Crying in the Chapel Night- Weddings to be performed on the field with Elvis in attendance.

Peanut Butter and Banana Sandwich night- Sandwiches for a buck

And after every Andrus home run (if any), the P.A. guy has to scream, "Elvis has left the building!"

Ryan C · Post by **Ryan C** » Tue Mar 24, 2009 12:10 pm

Might just be me - but isn't the whole point to "take it deep" when bothering to comment. I could just agree with everything but where is the fun in that!

But hey - I'll repeat, I like Andrus. His skills say he could easily do everything guys who drafted him are hoping for. He could also be totally overmatched and back in AAA by the end of May.

I thought Asdrubal Cabrera was going to be great last year as my MI on draft day. He looked great at the end of 2007 for the Tribe.

But he stunk up the joint in April/May and was back in the minors. He showed that I wasn't totally wrong by hitting .320 in the second half - but by then he was on someone else's team.

Good luck to all Andrus owners. I have my own risky Texas draftee, Chris Davis, to worry about.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Tue Mar 24, 2009 12:21 pm

Originally posted by Ryan Carey:

I have my own risky Texas draftee, Chris Davis, to worry about. Nelson Cruz is the far riskier pick here.. Had one good month (in Sept) basically against three teams (22 of 31 games) after hitting .231 in 437 prior MLB AB's.

This guy was a sigle digit pick in every league. That is risk. He could easily revert back to being Jack Cust.

All of these guys will probably do well because that park and the lineup is scary good. Blalock was a good value pick too.