Winners/Losers

[DOUGHBOYS]

Are you talking home runs, Todd?

The Mets hit a MLB low of 95 last year and their leading RH home run hitter had all of 10 home runs.

Are you calling Citi an above average park for right handed hitters to hit home runs?

[ToddZ]

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Are you talking home runs, Todd?

The Mets hit a MLB low of 95 last year and their leading RH home run hitter had all of 10 home runs.

Are you calling Citi an above average park for right handed hitters to hit home runs? Yes, HR.



Again, I have issues with the calculation, but it is actually true that globally, Citi Field FAVORED HR last season.



The calculation involves comparing how the home team's batter do at home and away as compared to how the home team's pitchers do at home and away. So it is not just reflective of how many HR the Mets hit at home. Other factors are how many they hit on the road, how many their staff gave up at Citi and how many the staff gave up on the road.



The rule of thumb is to use the average of 3 years of data before the park factor is considered "real" to let all the luck biases flesh out.



This is not the time or place, but I don't believe all the biases are properly accounted for, nor can they be, so I take what I call the caveman approach -- PETCO, pitch, good >.



Gut says after 3 years, the numbers will suggest Citi suppresses HR, but the fact is, after 1 season, it aided them.

[DOUGHBOYS]

I'll succomb to the caveman approach as well.

When David Wright changes his swing, giving into Citi's dimensions, I have the score,

Citi -1

HR'S -0



If other hitters gave in, changing swings that they go on the road with as well, doesen't that render your numbers null and void?



Not picking a fight, just saying...

[CC's Desperados]

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

I'll succomb to the caveman approach as well.

When David Wright changes his swing, giving into Citi's dimensions, I have the score,

Citi -1

HR'S -0



If other hitters gave in, changing swings that they go on the road with as well, doesen't that render your numbers null and void?



Not picking a fight, just saying... He had a bad year. The Mets had a ton of injuries. Do you think his 2010 BB/K's look like 2009 or more like 2006-2008?

[ToddZ]

Again, not "my numbers" -- they are the accepted method of determining park factors.



I tend to avoid the more anecdotal discussions because not everyone is like you -- not looking to pick a fight



I know all about Wright's contention he changed his approach due to Citi. I know all about how he was pitched nothing but crap because he was surrounded by flotsam and jetsam the majority of the season.



Now, I am not saying I would draft Wright #1 overall like I did in a 2008 Satellite league.



But I will take the over on 12 HR.



[ January 02, 2010, 04:45 PM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

[DOUGHBOYS]

All of Wright's numbers were messed up.

The reasons only he knows. Some will guess ballpark, some injury, some team, some personal. He is one of a select few this coming year where it wouldn't surprise me if he hit 12 home runs or if he hit 35 home runs.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Originally posted by ToddZ:

Again, not "my numbers" -- they are the accepted method of determining park factors.



I tend to avoid the more anecdotal discussions because not everyone is like you -- not looking to pick a fight



I know all about Wright's contention he changed his approach due to Citi. I know all about how he was pitched nothing but crap because he was surrounded by flotsam and jetsam the majority of the season.



Now, I am not saying I would draft Wright #1 overall like I did in a 2008 Satellite league.



But I will take the over on 12 HR. Fair enough.



See, I told you I wasn't looking for a fight.

[rkulaski]

Originally posted by ToddZ:

quote:Originally posted by rkulaski:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Want to put a fifty down that he doesen't hit 30?



At my age, size is the least of my worries. Hmm... I wonder what David Wright's projections for Bay would be if Bay signs up with the Mets. [/QUOTE]While I am not the biggest proponent of "park factors", Citi Field was actually FAVORABLE for RHB in its inaugural season inflating them 10% over a neutral park.

[/QUOTE]That is news to me. I never would've thought that. I tried to compare some other Mets' hitters to see if they had a power outage too but half the team was hurt and guys like Beltran were already seeing a power decline.

[ToddZ]

The Mets batters hit 49 HR at home and 46 on the road



The Mets pitchers gave 81 at home and 77 on the road.



The formal equation has some adjustments for the fact many home games (maybe not so many for the Mets ) but some home games only go 8 1/2 innings.



The calculation without the adjustment is



100 x (49+81)/(46+77) = 106



106 means teh park inflated HR by 6% over a neutral park.



The 10% I cited was from the Bill James Handbook and uses the more precise formula.



But the point is Mets' hitters hit more HR at home than the road and their pitchers gave up more at home.



Of course, this assumes the home and away samples are exactly the same with respect to the exact pitchers facing the exact hitters and weather conditions, which is obviously not the csse -- which is why three years of data is necessary to make the data reliable.



And as I have said, even then I do not consider it all that reliable.



Why do indoor parks have different park effects?



[ January 02, 2010, 06:43 PM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]