SP Sleeper - Wade_Davis

The RoundTrippers · Post by **The RoundTrippers** » Thu Jan 28, 2010 4:40 am

due to the baseball mafia endorsement i reckon??

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Thu Jan 28, 2010 5:05 am

funny thing about the rays- they have been listed as 11-1 to win the world series with the braves at 12-1 and the white sox at 12-1. some odds on other teams have changed- those 3 lines have not. vegas is usually pretty smart ( that's is how all those casinoes get built). yet- rays position players get drafted higher. most people believe the rays defense is better than the braves and sox- so why are the odds so close? well- could be the division. not all of it- but some of it. so- is your $ on the nfbc players or vegas? if on the nfbc players you should be throwing some $ on the rays for sure because they have great pitching, great hitting and great defense and vegas is just plain stupid. the bettors were wrong on tampa in 2008 so they could be wrong today.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Thu Jan 28, 2010 6:02 am

Originally posted by headhunters:

funny thing about the rays- they have been listed as 11-1 to win the world series with the braves at 12-1 and the white sox at 12-1. some odds on other teams have changed- those 3 lines have not. vegas is usually pretty smart ( that's is how all those casinoes get built). yet- rays position players get drafted higher. most people believe the rays defense is better than the braves and sox- so why are the odds so close? well- could be the division. not all of it- but some of it. so- is your $ on the nfbc players or vegas? if on the nfbc players you should be throwing some $ on the rays for sure because they have great pitching, great hitting and great defense and vegas is just plain stupid. the bettors were wrong on tampa in 2008 so they could be wrong today. Odds change based on how many people play. If you dressed up the Rays as the Yankees and put them in the Bronx, they'd be 2-1.

DrDobs · Post by **DrDobs** » Thu Jan 28, 2010 6:13 am

Originally posted by RichV:

quote:Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by RichV:

I like Davis just fine. I just have issue with saying "no shot". No shot implies that if I like Porcello this year, I'm wrong. "no shot" at taking his game to the next level is what i said. what do you think porcello's #'s will be this year...

wins?

k's?

era?

whip?

IP?

please post and i'll tell you where i think you are wrong [/QUOTE]I like using rates, but for the sake of argument, let's say he stays healthy and throws 180 innings.

W-14

K 90

BB 50

whip 1.32

era 4.15

IF he can walk 10-15 less, and K 20-30 more, he can go sub 4.00 era, 1.20 whip

I wouldn't put high % on the upside, but I do say he has a SHOT at hitting new personal bests. [/QUOTE]But those stats make him less valuable than Kevin Correa.... Hardly anything to get excited about from my vantage point....

GOD Loves You · Post by **GOD Loves You** » Thu Jan 28, 2010 6:21 am

Originally posted by Quahogs:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Glenneration X:

How much do you believe in your sleeper Mark?

Does he outproduce Price? Garza?

Glenn price will be another one of my sleepers. [/QUOTE]With two players from Tampa as sleepers, you probably need to buy some insurance and draft Jeremy Hellickson. [/QUOTE]Funny you should mention Hellickson - I've just seen him go SCREAMING up the charts the last slow I was in. By Main Day he may be parked in the high teens !

[/QUOTE]Hence my "And their Ray buddy will probably be just as good.

" comment.

Control,control,control. Not a Janet Jackson endorsement, but........

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Thu Jan 28, 2010 6:22 am

bjoak- i actually think we agree here- to some extent. the long version is much too long- but when lines come out- casinoes already have factored in the " bias'. in fact it is actually biased the other way- towards the yankess, boston, cubs, dodgers, cowboys. yes- the odds would be lower on the rays if you made them the yankees- but not that much lower because we are 3 months into this and there just isn't enough dumb/ home team $ to offset the "smart $" that would come in if the odds were that out off wack. i know you know the #'s- trust me- there are guys that know them way better than you that try to beat the casinoes every day. this is clearly a case of nfbc is correct or vegas/ bettors are correct. nfbc was correct in 2007- the rays were way undervalued in vegas. before you go throw all this $ on the rays- go check davis' starts last year. check the lineups the orioles trotted out,seattle. then check how he fared against the yanks and red sox.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Thu Jan 28, 2010 8:01 am

yah - i know wat you mean headrhunters - dont forget davis a sleeper- affects davis two - odds without 14 -1 but odds with 13-1 - but you know how it is - you win some you lose some - no but i agree - the grass is always greener on the other side- good gosh i wonder what the yankees would be worth then if you just bet on them in vegas but bet on the Rays first before betting on them- yeah, that would be a killer for sure - i had last year in the nfbc one guy not even drafted in nffc and he won me big time in vegas- but nothing to be done about it- its all just for fun- you know how it is good times all around- i just wish the yankees and the rays would get together and decide whether the red sox should beat vegas in a draft of all the all stars- peace out

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Thu Jan 28, 2010 9:22 am

Originally posted by DrDobs:

But those stats make him less valuable than Kevin Correa.... Hardly anything to get excited about from my vantage point.... DrDobs bringing the noise

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Thu Jan 28, 2010 9:33 am

bjoak- since you obviously take great joy in making fun of me, what did you mean by saying

"if you dressed up the rays in yankee uniforms and put them in the bronx they would be 2-1". this was based on how many people play. i do not understand ( obviously). i am being serious.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Thu Jan 28, 2010 12:11 pm

Another NFBCer suggested I post this:

[ January 28, 2010, 06:13 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Thu Jan 28, 2010 12:34 pm

Originally posted by headhunters:

bjoak- since you obviously take great joy in making fun of me, what did you mean by saying

"if you dressed up the rays in yankee uniforms and put them in the bronx they would be 2-1". this was based on how many people play. i do not understand ( obviously). i am being serious. Oh, about my previous post, okay. Vegas odds heavily favor the Yankees. They're good but not that good. So if the Yankees fired all their players and hired all the Rays (hypothetically) they would get much better odds just because they're the Yankees.

I am fond of saying a person can make a living by moving to Vegas and betting against the Yanks all year. That might have not been true this past year, though, as they ran away with it--but most years, yeah.

RichV · Post by **RichV** » Thu Jan 28, 2010 12:44 pm

Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by DrDobs:

But those stats make him less valuable than Kevin Correa.... Hardly anything to get excited about from my vantage point.... DrDobs bringing the noise

[/QUOTE]If you can find somewhere where I compared Porcello's 2010 value with anybody, please let me know. All I said is, to say a 21 year old starting pitcher with poise and control well beyond his years, has "NO SHOT" at improving on his rookie season is ridiculous.

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Thu Jan 28, 2010 12:46 pm

"NO SHOT" this year Rich. Sorry, that's my opinion. His Krate will be too low this year.

Potter · Post by **Potter** » Thu Jan 28, 2010 12:54 pm

One canoe plus one casino equals two casinoes?

RichV · Post by **RichV** » Thu Jan 28, 2010 1:07 pm

Originally posted by Gekko:

"NO SHOT" this year Rich. Sorry, that's my opinion. His Krate will be too low this year. We agree to disagree. I see no reason why he doesn't get better. Just don't misquote me and say I said He'll be better than Davis, or Garza. or anyone else.

Ryan C · Post by **Ryan C** » Thu Jan 28, 2010 1:29 pm

Not that I really want to get in the middle of this BUT: Rich - I understand that Gekko can get under your (hey anybody's) skin - but the fact is Mark never misquoted you and never said you compared Porcello to anyone.

You seem to be attributing dobs' post to Mark here

RichV · Post by **RichV** » Thu Jan 28, 2010 3:06 pm

You're right Ryan. He didn't.

Navel Lint · Post by **Navel Lint** » Fri Jan 29, 2010 3:36 am

Headhunters-

I think the problem is your writing style. You write like people talk. The difficulty is; we can’t see you, can’t hear your inflections and we’re not really in the middle of a conversation. You have to make every written word count.

I’m certainly not English major, but if you just separate your thoughts into complete sentences and shorter paragraphs it would be easier for the readers to understand. I think if you just look at the vast majority of posts on this board compared to yours, you will see what I mean.

Anyway; keep posting, just not those “HeadHurters” long paragraphs. I read these boards almost every day and I wish more people posted. There are some very interesting individuals here and we all can learn something from others.

Edited for grammar correction

[ January 29, 2010, 09:49 AM: Message edited by: Navel Lint ]