Live Chat With Rick Wilton: Wednesday, Feb. 17th, 2 pm ET

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 5:05 am

Chad Qualls dislocated his landing leg knee cap? Do you have any reservations about him this year? Was he unable to work out, thus added weight, thus in danger of putting excess weight on a fragile landing knee?

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 5:26 am

Rick,

I'm wondering if you keep a database with probability statistics for particular types of injuries and/or situations?

(not looking for answers for these, they're just examples)

1. J.Jurrjens gets an MRI for shoulder soreness that comes back clean. What is the % a clean MRI foreshadows a poorer than expected season ?

2. How soon does normal speed return to a player in general after an ankle sprain, an ankle break, groin, hamstring, quad injuries ?

3. How soon does power return after a labrum injury, rotator cuff, broken wrist, hamate bone...

4. What's the % tendinitis turns into a bigger problem ? And how long once you hear tendinitis is the culprit does a player return to normal output ?

5. The word OBLIQUE strain lands next to a player. Do you categorize the severity and how soon the player returns to normal function ?

- these are just a few examples. I know injury extremes, players ages, genetic makeup, etc make nailing outcomes similar to hitting a moving target but I'm just looking for detailed circumstances, probabilities and factual outcome. Something like this would be huge and I'm sure a tidy sum could be charged

Lastly, how do you come about your injury information? I'm guessing you don't talk to the players and that trainers CAN'T talk to you. Do you have a network of beat reporters that you tap ?

Thanks Rick

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 5:28 am

Rick,

Will you sign a baseball and inscribe "Dear Andy, To my biggest fan...

Drop in the mail to Bellingham, Mass

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 5:38 am

Rick OUT of these guys are you worried about any of them getting enough at bats for fantasy value.

Nick Johnson

Josh Hamilton

Aramis Ramirez

Carlos Quentin

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 5:46 am

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

Rick,

Will you sign a baseball and inscribe "Dear Andy, To my biggest fan...

Drop in the mail to Bellingham, Mass Kent, the most anticipated chat of the year for me... Rick make sure you sign the ball on the sweet spot.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 5:55 am

Rick,

You had Greinke and Lester on your 'red flag' list last year.

What do you think of them, injury-wise, this year?

RickWilton2 · Post by **RickWilton2** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 6:04 am

Originally posted by Red Sox Nation:

Hi Rick,

What SP's scare you in 2010 due to workload concerns from over usage or huge innings spikes? Thanks The biggest concern we should have is with Chad Billingsley. While he pitched just under 200 IP, a number he reached the year before, his post all-star break numbers were 5.20, 1.47 WHIP and reports his velocity declined late in the year may be warning signs.

We should have just a tad of caution when it comes to Lincecum and all the IPs he has thrown the past year years to push him out of the first round and deep into the 2nd if not third.

RickWilton2 · Post by **RickWilton2** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 6:05 am

Originally posted by MadCow Sez:

Aloha Rick,

I read Beltran's injury as much more significant than has been let on based on the firestorm created by the surgery timing. What's your take on his return?

Cheers! The Mets were such a train wreck when it came to injury information last year who knows if we have all the info on Beltran, Reyes and company. A good Mets source I talked to in January says he did NOT have microfracture surgery. That said, the late surgery date will land him on the DL for at LEAST 4-6 weeks as he recovers. Once he is back in the lineup he will run less and won’t reach 20 SBs in 2010 and maybe not even 15.

RickWilton2 · Post by **RickWilton2** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 6:08 am

Originally posted by Ryan Carey:

Hey Rick love the work you do- a few questions I have heading into the season:

Thanks Ryan.

-Do you any reports on Shaun Marcum and his recovery from TJ surgery?

He had Tommy John surgery in Sept of 2008 and will be 18 or so months removed by the time the season starts. That is roughly the point pitchers have regained almost all their strength. Once he shakes off the rust he should pitch effectively. I think we are likely to see numbers similar to 2007 ( 4.13 ERA, 1.245 WHIP in 2007) this season.

-How worried should we be about Ervin Santana heading into the season? How soon before the elbow blows out?

Santana looks to be a major elbow injury waiting to happen. He is my bet for Tommy John surgery this season.

-Two prominent Hip injury guys from last season were 3B Alex Rodriguez and Alex Gordon. Do you see these players having any recurring problems related to this injury?

Gordon and A-Rod get a clean bill of health starting the 2010 season. No injury worries here.

-Last question is Multiple Choice:

Group A: Johan Santana, Brandon Webb, Jake Peavy, Group B: Tim Hudson, Ben Sheets, Kevin Slowey

Group C: Erik Bedard, Brett Myers, Dice K

-Last question is Multiple Choice:

Group A: Johan Santana, Brandon Webb, Jake Peavy,

(Peavy is the safest)

Group B: Tim Hudson, Ben Sheets, Kevin Slowey

(Hudson looks solid)

Group C: Erik Bedard, Brett Myers, Dice K

(Bedard should be avoid except as a late draft pickup.)

All these guys come into the season with varying health/durability questions. If you got to choose one from each group to go into the season with which three do you want? Is there anyone on these list you want no part of this year?

Thanks Rick - Look forward to reading your columns this year.

RickWilton2 · Post by **RickWilton2** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 6:09 am

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

How much credence do you give to BJ Upton's disappointing 2009 being related to the injury? I think his shoulder strength was an issue for at least half a season.

Last year I compared Upton to Hanley Ramirez who had almost the same surgery and amount of time to recovery. Upton did not bounce back quickly but should in 2010. He should come into drafts undervalued.

What are your thoughts on him for 2010?

I’d draft him with only a slight concern.

RickWilton2 · Post by **RickWilton2** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 6:10 am

Originally posted by RickWilton2:

quote:Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

How much credence do you give to BJ Upton's disappointing 2009 being related to the injury? I think his shoulder strength was an issue for at least half a season.

[Rick Wilton's reply] Last year I compared Upton to Hanley Ramirez who had almost the same surgery and amount of time to recovery. Upton did not bounce back quickly but should in 2010. He should come into drafts undervalued.

What are your thoughts on him for 2010?

I’d draft him with only a slight concern. [/QUOTE]

RickWilton2 · Post by **RickWilton2** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 6:12 am

Originally posted by rkulaski:

Rick,

3 parts for you:

1. Many seem worried about Morneau this year. Would you be concerned about drafting him? Are you concerned about his power this year returning from wrist surgery? What about his back- it is my understanding he is returning from a stress fracture and not a disc injury. Should this play a role in our thinking in regards to the risk of a re-injuring his back?

2. J Santana and B Webb. Who are you more concerned about returning to form this year and why? Are NFBCers getting it right in slow drafts... Johan in the 4th, Webb in the 9th or does one pitcher seem like a better value than the other?

3. Any batters or pitchers with an adp in the top 10-12 rds that you would absolutely avoid at this time?

Thanks for your time today. Take care.

Rich The reservation with Morneau is with his back and what caused it. If it was a wear and tear type injury then yes we all should be worried. Even the Twins are not sure how it happened. I’m not saying he will turn into a Todd Helton type situation but it his career could follow those lines if he develops another stress fracture or has a herniated disc. My gut says he will be OK both healthwise and power in 2010.

Right now it looks like Santana is the better pick. We won’t know about Webb until May-June.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 6:12 am

Hey Rick -- no question, just want to say good luck on the First Pitch Tour, I'll miss stalking you and Ron across the country this spring but look forward to the NYC and Boston stops next month.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 6:23 am

Rick's having some tech issues but he will be back shortly.

RickWilton2 · Post by **RickWilton2** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 6:27 am

I'm Back. Sorry for the delay.

All those feel good stories about Windows 7? It is not as stable as Microsoft would have you believe!

Rick

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 6:31 am

Matsuzaka suffered a back strain the other day.

A foretelling of things to come?

RickWilton2 · Post by **RickWilton2** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 6:31 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

No surprise here, but these are the players I'd most like to hear about how their recovery is coming along for 2010...I'll even make it my "All-Risk" starting lineup!

C: Ryan Doumit

1B: Justin Morneau

2B: Rickie Weeks

SS: Jose Reyes

3B: Edwin Encarnacion

OF: Josh Hamilton

OF: Adam Jones

OF: Alphonso Soriano

SP: Johan Santana

SP: Brandon Webb

SP: Edinson Volquez (slow "locked" draft)

RP: Chad Cordero (is he still alive?

)

Thanks a bunch!!! sportsbettingman: My technical issues and time won't allow me to answer the question in its entirety.

The biggest risk is Reyes because he is one wrong move/hamstring injury away from missing a good portion of the season again.

The safest is Adam Jones. His ankle should be a non issue this season.

Mark my word about Chad Cordero. he will be leading the Chinese baseball league in saves by June!

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 6:34 am

Rick,

You had technical problems last year.

Do you need a new computer?

RickWilton2 · Post by **RickWilton2** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 6:34 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

Rick, I want more from Lance's list. With Rickie Weeks now suffering two separate wrist injuries, is there a concern that this is going to be a recurring thing with him? Is there any hope that he can play a full season without either injury coming up again, not to mention another ailment that he's known for? The Brewers have no choice but to stick with him for now and hope for the best and by all reports they think he is going to have a bustout year. Do you believe any of it?

Thanks again for joining us on Wednesday for the Live Chat. Oh, and don't give too much information away because you have a few NFBC leagues to win yourself!! Thanks for competing again and good luck. Great points on Weeks. Yes he is injury prone regarding wrist, hand and thumb issue. That should push his price down this year. If he can avoid more injuries he could be a great buy. If I had to put a number on it I would say he has about a 60-70% chance of having more wrist/hand injuries in 2010.

RickWilton2 · Post by **RickWilton2** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 6:39 am

Originally posted by uncle charlie:

Hello, Sizemore was on average #5 last year and now he is going 15 to 20 spots later this year. Still in his prime age wise, can he get back to 30/30? Would you take a shot at him in the 2nd? Thank you I had Sizemore in both my NFBC drafts last year and well, you know what happened!

Right now it looks like his ADP position will be late second maybe early third in a lot of drafts? His true value should be very late 1st to 2nd round in 15-team leagues. His elbow is sound and the abdominal wall problem surgery was not serious. He could start slow and be back to normal by May.

RickWilton2 · Post by **RickWilton2** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 6:41 am

Originally posted by Joe Sambito:

The second tier of closers, has a few guys that I have red-flagged, are my concerns legit for the following guys?

Billy Wagner

Mike Gonzalez

Kerry Wood

Rafael Soriano Soriano and Mike Gonzalez are the two riskiest closers in this group. Both are long DL stints just waiting to happen because of past arm issues. Wagner should be the safest of the group.

RickWilton2 · Post by **RickWilton2** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 6:44 am

Originally posted by Joe Sambito:

We know of some hip injuries with hitters, but what about power pitchers? Is Brett Myers likely to bounce back and be a 175+ K guy again? Reportedly Myers hip is very close to being normal and the Astros got a bargain in Myers. Because the injury cut deep into his 2009 season Myers could pitch effectively in the first half before fading down the stretch as the innings mount up.

RickWilton2 · Post by **RickWilton2** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 6:46 am

Originally posted by Joe Sambito:

Any early word on Jurrjens? The MRI says it was just inflammation. So I would be concerned about it. However, if he gets the needed rest and the same ailment surfaces again later in the spring or early in 2010 then a red flag should be raised. He should be safe to draft and it is likely to be a non-issue by late march.

RickWilton2 · Post by **RickWilton2** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 6:50 am

Originally posted by Joe Sambito:

Last one from me (for now), Why all the mystery with Freddy Sanchez's injury? It looks like a terrible trade by the Giants even if Alderson becomes a batboy. Ralistically are we looking at a May 1 return? The Sanchez deal looks to be one of the worst signings in recent memory. He can not stay healthy and his knee and shoulder rehabs might keep him on the DL until May. Avoid like the plague.

RickWilton2 · Post by **RickWilton2** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 6:53 am

Originally posted by rkulaski:

Last 2 for me since I will be working and making a living at 2pm so I can comfortably afford signing up for more nfbc leagues:

1. Can you update us on the type of surgery/procedure Beltran had on his knee? What do you think his chances are to be back in the starting lineup by mid May?

(Rick's reply] As I stated above it was not microfracture surgery. He may not come back until mid-May and the speed part of his game could take a big hit.

2. What are you hearing on Troy Glaus' shoulder? Healthy entering spring training?

thanks again for your time today, Rick. -Rich I would pass on Glaus. Too many injury issues and we have seen he can not stay healthy. Take a flyer on a younger more healthy player!