Time For A Tuesday Chat

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Tue Feb 22, 2005 9:50 am

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

[QB] tom - would the following news "bump up" Randy Johnson on your cheatsheets? will the unit get an extra start or two this season?

From an injury perspective, I'd would consider bumping him down...but not too much.

viper · Post by **viper** » Tue Feb 22, 2005 9:53 am

I know CREATiVESPORTS did a mock draft (you and I were in it). Fantasy Sports did one and it was in the April edition (thanks for the magazine by the way). Also Mastersball has done one.

Are you aware of any other NFBC mock drfats done for magazines of sites that are freely available. I am only interested in 15 team mock drafts and not mocks of a lesser number of teams using NFBC roster rules. The 15 teams is a big factor especially when it come to the drafting of catchers. Nothing against anything out of MockDraftCentral done by NFBC participants, but my guess is that many folks there are trying to see how different drafting philosophies are working so any results from there are a bit skewed.

viper · Post by **viper** » Tue Feb 22, 2005 9:57 am

Rotoworld did say Randy Johnson may start 3 of the first 8 games.

Now the thought of GG and "helpful" being used in the same sentence without a "not" does seem a bit far fetched however he doesn't speak with a forked tongue on this matter.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Tue Feb 22, 2005 9:57 am

viper, I'm not aware of any such drafts. Sorry.

viper · Post by **viper** » Tue Feb 22, 2005 10:06 am

I'm looking to see if there are any common player mixes. How many hitters .vs. pitcher are drafted by round through about the 15th round. Not the actual players draft but the mix. There does seem to be some consistency through 10 rounds in all three drafts. Need to follow up in rounds 11-15 and then break down hitteres by CA, CI, MI, OF. I already broke down pitchers by SP, CL.

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Tue Feb 22, 2005 10:08 am

Originally posted by viper:

I know CREATiVESPORTS did a mock draft (you and I were in it). Fantasy Sports did one and it was in the April edition (thanks for the magazine by the way). Also Mastersball has done one.

Are you aware of any other NFBC mock drfats done for magazines of sites that are freely available. I am only interested in 15 team mock drafts and not mocks of a lesser number of teams using NFBC roster rules. The 15 teams is a big factor especially when it come to the drafting of catchers. Nothing against anything out of MockDraftCentral done by NFBC participants, but my guess is that many folks there are trying to see how different drafting philosophies are working so any results from there are a bit skewed. Viper, If you get enough of the MockCentral Drafts as samples, and filter them appropriately, it does give you a pretty good indication on where players are going. It's a lot more useful than the CreativeSports piece beacuase its sucha samll sample, and I would assume most of the guys darftaing, although experts, woul d not have done all their homewrlk at that stage.

viper · Post by **viper** » Tue Feb 22, 2005 11:03 am

Didn't realize we went to page 3.

Can I get that filter I really don't care where a Bonds was drafted on average. I am curious how many hitters and pitchers were drafted in, say, the first three rounds like 38 hitters and 7 pitchers, etc.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Feb 22, 2005 11:08 am

this is like watching two kids cramming for a college mid-term. it’s fun for me to watch, as i already have the answers for the test.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Feb 22, 2005 12:17 pm

What I don't quite get...

With the unpredictability of how many closing opportunities a teams closer will wind up having...parlayed to potential slumps and errors...parlayed to the abundance of closers or potential closers in the league...and the opportunity to start 3 (or more)on a given week...why the "expert mocks" still insist on grabbing for top closers so early in the draft?

I know it's a category that stands alone...and some can pick up cheap wins and a good amount of K's...but in the 4th round?...seems too early.

~Lance

[ February 22, 2005, 06:22 PM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]

viper · Post by **viper** » Tue Feb 22, 2005 12:54 pm

everyone has their own ideas on how best to draft. It is what makes this game so interesting.

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Tue Feb 22, 2005 2:06 pm

Originally posted by viper:

Didn't realize we went to page 3.

Can I get that filter I really don't care where a Bonds was drafted on average. I am curious how many hitters and pitchers were drafted in, say, the first three rounds like 38 hitters and 7 pitchers, etc. Viper,

Copy and past the draft results from each of the NFBC leagues drafts from last year which are on the NFBC website (after signing in). That should give you a good idea of how the can/could react on drfat day.

GEEKKO,

Boy I wish you were in my league.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Feb 22, 2005 2:07 pm

Originally posted by nydownunder:

GEEKKO,

Boy I wish you were in my league. i see your logic. at least you can say you lost to the eventual champion.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Feb 22, 2005 6:01 pm

I did in WCOFF 2004...damn it.

~Lance

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Tue Feb 22, 2005 6:26 pm

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

What I don't quite get...

With the unpredictability of how many closing opportunities a teams closer will wind up having...parlayed to potential slumps and errors...parlayed to the abundance of closers or potential closers in the league...and the opportunity to start 3 (or more)on a given week...why the "expert mocks" still insist on grabbing for top closers so early in the draft?

I know it's a category that stands alone...and some can pick up cheap wins and a good amount of K's...but in the 4th round?...seems too early.

~Lance What's there to get? You want it in simple terms, Lance? I'll share a secret with you and I hope this thread gets buried. You have two choices on draft day. You can draft QUALITY or QUANTITY at any position. You can get a superb 1b or you can get 4 of them and rotate in matchups and hot streaks. You can get 3 or 4 good SP or you can get 14 and plug in the guys with 2 starts each week, etc.

This applies to every stat and every position... except closer (saves).

You can't pick up 6 closers late and plug and play. There aren't any secure jobs available late in the draf. No matter how EARLY they start going - LATE is rampant speculation. Sure, you can get LUCKY and pick up 3 backup closers who get jobs due to injury, but I think what you'll find good fantasy gamers doing is trying to eliminate luck from the equation when possible.

Don't PLAN on getting lucky, plan on a sound draft strategy and focus your risk on areas that you can dig deep and find options.

Hope that helps,

Dyv

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Tue Feb 22, 2005 6:48 pm

Originally posted by viper:

Rotoworld did say Randy Johnson may start 3 of the first 8 games.

Now the thought of GG and "helpful" being used in the same sentence without a "not" does seem a bit far fetched however he doesn't speak with a forked tongue on this matter. Rotoworld and GG, the two leading spreaders of misinformation in the industry. At least GG has it in his bio. Kudos for that.

Head 2 Head · Post by **Head 2 Head** » Wed Feb 23, 2005 5:42 am

It all boils down to luck (and analysis). Let's say I project Bonderman to win 20 games with a 2 ERA. Even if I am right, I still need to put him on my team and if I spend a second round pick for him I may have gotten 20 wins and a 2 ERA vs a 17 win 2.50 ERA that pick should generate. That type of profit isn't going to win the league, let only the Championship. I have my projections and then I have to GAMBLE on the picks to use. If only two teams out of the 300 project Bonderman to breakout to this degree and the other one picks him right before me, I am simply unlucky. I am looking forward to playing with all you experts.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Wed Feb 23, 2005 6:53 am

I agree with you Dyv.

It's just a matter of draft flow and risks. I'm hoping for a mid-number draft slot...I hate being on the ends...I like the two quick picks...but having to try and predict who will be around in 15-17 picks is much better than trying to predict who'll still be there in close to 30 picks...brutal...that's gambling!

In a 12 team 5x5 keeper league (we keep 10 each year)...not many tend to keep closers...but that's most likely due to the predictability of the team owners...we know we can grab some good ones in the mid rounds of the next years draft...which is more like the 13th-15th rounds of a full draft.

Thanks for the lesson. (Haaaargh!)

~Lance