Weekly Blog

[Edwards Kings]

At mid-week of the fourth period, the Las Vegas Weekend 2 - League 4 is just as competitive as everyone thought. There are five of us who have had pretty good starts, five needing a hot day or two to challenge and five who know that it is still early, but need a strong week or two to climb. Four of us are in the top 41 of the overall competition, but none are higher than 20. Tough and tight.



As we move closer to the weekend, I have one thing going for me and one thing against. On the bad side, ten of my bats will be on the road and my bats will be mostly in places like San Fran, Citi, Anaheim, Miami, St. Louis and Minnesota. It is going to be tough to make up my power numbers in those parks.



On the good side, I have more starts (seven) than anyone else in my league to finish the week and while one start will be nerve-wracking (Santana against Boston), other starts are against Washington, against Houston, in San Diego and in Minnesota. With good starts (knocking on wood again), I should get a jump on some of my pitching stats like strike-outs and hopefully wins.



As tight as this league is, I hope the pitching push helps.



[ April 21, 2011, 07:12 AM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]

[Edwards Kings]

NEWS FLASH! I am a freakin’ moron! I have made some bone-head plays in my life, but never have they cost me two complete game shut-outs! Last week, I wrote “Still running through my mind is to put Shields in for McClellan to get the extra start, but he has been very hittable his last two starts and his K-rate is way down.” Well, I didn’t. And Shields ended up with a near perfect pitching line for two starts! Eighteen innings pitched, eight hits, three walks, and sixteen strike-outs with zero earned runs. I will start him this week and he will get SHELLED!



As tight as this league is, I can ill afford many more errors in judgment like that one. At one point this past week I had reached 21st overall and was leading this league. Then my pitching blew up over the week-end. Right now four of us are in a virtual tie for first (only 6.5 points separate us all and the difference between first and fourth is a reasonably good night) in the league and in the overall we range from 34th (Lindy) to 44th (Ken Norred and Dan Semsel). I sit at 39th and Matt Bauler is at 43rd. Understanding of course that there are 26 leagues in the Main, our highest placed team is only 34th. In short, we are really beating each other up. Tight is one of my middle-aged, country-fried cousins trying to still fit into their high school prom dresses (most of them were probably third-trimester with their second child by the time Junior Prom came by and they would still need Crisco, a crow-bar, and a miracle to get back into one of those dresses). This league is way past that on the Tight-O-Meter.



Period 4 Results – Putting the Shields mistake aside (and it was a big mistake), I was still able to hit nine of my ten targets this week, so crying will be limited. Led by Braun, Youkilis, Ethier, and Francoeur (Francoeur? Shawn? Paging Shawn Childs!), I was able to generate 306 AB with a 0.2816 BA, 44 Runs, 47 RBI’s, 6 steals, and 12 homeruns. The homeruns do nothing to make up for the shortfall of the previous 2 ½ weeks, but maybe it is a sign things are turning around in the power department.



For pitching, I was really rolling, even with out Shields until my last four starts this past weekend. Because five of the first six starts of the week were so good, I was able to limp home with 10 starts, averaging nearly seven innings per start, 61 strike-outs to only 20 walks, 3.609 ERA, thanks to Mr. Santana giving up 19 hits in 11 IP a 1.292 WHIP, and four wins. I am still not getting the results I really think I can get with this staff, but if I pull my head out of my backside and Wandy heats up again like last year, I am still not too far off the mark.



The good news is my Bravos came back yesterday to sweep the Giants (who started Lincecum, Bumgarner, and Sanchez). The bad news is that they did it against Brian Wilson. I ended up with only one save last week and am now falling behind in that category. Frank Francisco pitched a solid inning for Toronto yesterday, so I am hoping he will start getting save chances soon.



Period 5 FAAB – I actually put some real money on the table this week. I bid $131 on Sands (to salt him away for that future date when Francoeur wakes up and realizes he is in KC, not Texas anymore). I really thought this would be way overkill, but Ken and Dan won him with $154 and the second place bid was $134. Mark Srebro paid a bit of a premium for Carlos Gomez, who was my second choice as he might help me with stolen bases, but my bid of $31 was not even second. So basically, while I picked someone up, I was frozen out.



I picked up Kevin Kouzmanoff for $13 (this $13 bid of mine is getting to be a pattern and I am going to have to change that up a bit or risk being too predictable). I now have him and Loney, both guys with no one really pushing them in Oakland (the A’s keep trying other options, who fail, and they go back to Kouzmanoff) or Los Angeles (Sands will be their best option in LF). Neither have shown much and both are better than what we have seen.



I really didn’t like the starting pitching options in the FA pool this week, except maybe Jason Hammel, but he only had one start, so I just passed.



Period 5 Planning – First planning step…put Shields in so he can blow up and follow my favorite fantasy recipe…Out=Shut-Out, In=Serving up taters like you were at an Idaho farmers market.



I dropped Carrasco to pick up one of my other players this week because I think Homer Bailey will be back this week and I really only want/need nine starters on my roster. I do not as of yet know what is wrong with his elbow and I may be jumping the gun, but someone needed to go. I generally lean towards NL pitchers anyway. That means, if I start Shields, Oswalt, Rodriguez, Marcum, Lohse and McClellan, I need to chose between Ervin Santana or Chris Narveson. Narveson has a start today versus Cincinnati, who punishes left handers. However, he is just about my only two start pitcher, so I will probably accept the risk. Santana actually has some tough road starts over the next couple of weeks, so it will probably be the week inter-league play begins before I seriously consider using him again.



The injury bug has finally bitten me, though in a minor way compared to what some others have been through. Remember all those wonder stolen bases Aaron Hill was getting? Well, now the hammy is sprung and I am short a second-baseman in my already questionable middle infield. I have had Orlando Hudson on the bench. He cooled considerably last week, but he is still getting regular AB from the second or third spot in the Padre line-up.



I also lost (and released) Scott Rolen. The plan was always to hold onto him until hurt or the second half. Well, hurt will have to do as the injury is to his “bad” shoulder. And a couple of cortisone shots didn’t seem to help. I will wait until he is “healthy” and has had a few rehab at-bats before I consider him again.



That means I will have to go with Smirnoff or Looney as my cornerman. Neither are very attractive right now, but both have really no where to go but up. I will probably go with Loney and I cannot tell you why because I don’t know. The coin just flipped that way.

[Gekko]

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

Mark Srebro paid a bit of a premium for Carlos Gomez, who was my second choice as he might help me with stolen bases, but my bid of $31 was not even second. wayne - don't forget, i'm the person who dropped him too. i've made some drops in that league that i'm already regretting. bad job by me so far.

[Edwards Kings]

Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

Mark Srebro paid a bit of a premium for Carlos Gomez, who was my second choice as he might help me with stolen bases, but my bid of $31 was not even second. wayne - don't forget, i'm the person who dropped him too. i've made some drops in that league that i'm already regretting. bad job by me so far. [/QUOTE]Hopefully what I wrote did not sound like a criticism, because it was not intended to be. I would have liked to get Gomez, but didn't "tener cojones" to get it done.

[Gekko]

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

quote:Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

Mark Srebro paid a bit of a premium for Carlos Gomez, who was my second choice as he might help me with stolen bases, but my bid of $31 was not even second. wayne - don't forget, i'm the person who dropped him too. i've made some drops in that league that i'm already regretting. bad job by me so far. [/QUOTE]Hopefully what I wrote did not sound like a criticism, because it was not intended to be. I would have liked to get Gomez, but didn't "tener cojones" to get it done. [/QUOTE]not at all wayne. tough, tough league. enjoy the blog.

[KJ Duke]

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

NEWS FLASH! I am a freakin’ moron! I have made some bone-head plays in my life, but never have they cost me two complete game shut-outs! Last week, I wrote “Still running through my mind is to put Shields in for McClellan to get the extra start, but he has been very hittable his last two starts and his K-rate is way down.” Well, I didn’t. And Shields ended up with a near perfect pitching line for two starts! Eighteen innings pitched, eight hits, three walks, and sixteen strike-outs with zero earned runs. I will start him this week and he will get SHELLED!



As a Shields 2010-owner, you've just witnessed his specialty ... just when he looks dead he goes out and pitches like an ace, and it will work both ways - I couldn't bring myself to draft him again this year. Good luck with him. At least you don't have Dice-K on the same team.

[MadCow Sez]

Enjoying the write-ups, Wayne! This league has been a blast from the time the draft slots were announced.

[Edwards Kings]

Chris Narveson was pitching through an illness Monday when he was shelled by the Reds.

Narveson surrendered eight hits and seven earned runs in less than three innings of work. "He didn’t have it," said Brewers manager Ron Roenicke. "Everything was elevated. I don’t want to make excuses but he was sick yesterday. I know he wasn’t 100 percent. Hopefully that’s the reason he was up in the zone. Everything was up."



Thanks a bunch, Roenicke. Thanks a freakin' bunch! You are a real genius!

[Walla Walla]

What is the point of this Blog????

[rockitsauce]

Originally posted by Walla Walla:

What is the point of this Blog????

I'm not sure what the point is. Who cares? It's entertaining. Why must you be such a Debbie Downer all the time? Did you not see that pic of that cool dude from the 70's? That alone makes this a kickass thread



Keep it up Wayne. I (for one) look fwd to what you write here

[Edwards Kings]

Originally posted by rockitsauce:

quote:Originally posted by Walla Walla:

What is the point of this Blog????

I'm not sure what the point is. Who cares? It's entertaining. Why must you be such a Debbie Downer all the time? Did you not see that pic of that cool dude from the 70's? That alone makes this a kickass thread



Keep it up Wayne. I (for one) look fwd to what you write here [/QUOTE]Thanks...I am glad you like it (especially my old pal, Alfred E. Neuman).



Don't worry about John. He has a personal beef with me, I believe, so just ignore him.



[ April 27, 2011, 06:56 AM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]

[Edwards Kings]

Just in case you were wondering, here is a lesson in how to blow up your pitching stats. First, take a group of "professional" baseball players and managers. For example, let's use my last five starts with Carrasco, Wandy, Narveson, Ervin Santana, and Roy Oswalt. Not the 1971 Orioles, but not exactly the 2007 Texas Rangers, neither. So what have these gentlemen done to me since Saturday?



22.3 IP in five starts (the bullpens have to love these guys), four losses (and one no decision...yeeehawwww), 39 hits, 8 walks, and 23 earned runs. That is a 9.269 ERA and a 2.104 WHIP.



Wow...what a tank job.

[Edwards Kings]

For at least the last two weeks, I have gone into the weekend games having a decent week, only to have my offensive tank. Saturday night, as far a counting stats go, I got a whopping one RBI…that’s it…no runs, homeruns or stolen bases. When taken together, Friday and Saturday gave me only 83 at bats (actually, AB for the week were hurt by the maladies of Youkilis, Hafner and Theriot) with only 19 hits (0.2289), 3 R, 1 HR, 7 RBI’s and 2 SB. Hardly awe inspiring.



Of course, I will always focus on the bad before the good. Friday and Saturday’s pitching performances were just about all you could ask for. Shields, Wandy, and Marcum all pitched seven or eight innings in their starts and between them gave up one earned run. Add to that the inning pitched and saves by Wilson and Hanrahan, for the two nights I ended up with 26 K’s in 25 IP with an ERA of 0.360 and a WHIP of 0.880. Only one win to go with the two saves, but I will take it.



Overall, I still feel my offense is under-performing. I know Ethier and Braun will not keep up this pace all year, but on the flip side I see much more coming out of Youkilis, Chris Johnson (maybe not as much as last year, but he should not be a Mendoza Line candidate), and Aaron Hill, who should be back sometime this week.



I am equally convinced at this stage I have good tools to build pitching stats. Roy Oswalt, James Shields, Wandy Rodriguez, and Shaun Marcum have proven to be a good if not great core. I can’t wait until Ervin Santana can get back to pitching mainly against the AL West teams (excluding Texas of course) and gets to the interleague play. Narveson has been only OK in three of his last four starts and got lit up in the other. By and large he has kept his walk rate while striking out nearly a batter an inning, so I hope that he gets more consistent. He still seems to be being beat by one bad pitch. But if he cannot bring it home, I have Homer Bailey back soon to hopefully catch the magic from late last year and make me a good #6 starter. Kyle Lohse has been better than good and quite frankly, despite his underlying stats fully supporting the results, is due for a correction. He has pitched at least seven innings in each of his five games this year. His K-rate is lower (63%) than I like, but his control has kept him in games (averaging one walk per game or nearly a 5:1 K/BB ratio). He gave up four earned runs (including the only HR he has allowed this year) in his first start and only three since then. I also have Kyle McClellan who has been very lucky this year. He is giving up too many hits, too many walks (a 1.435 WHIP), and striking out too few. And he has four wins and a 3.228 ERA. Doesn’t add up, but I actually think McClellan is better than his underlying stats and actually I think he is a better pitcher than Lohse.



At the end of the week, I sit in third (2.5 points behind Lindy) in my league. Jason Santucci has joined the four pack at the top of our standings and is just behind me in our league and in the overall (we are 44th and 45th overall respectively). Dan Semsel and Ken Norred lead the league (20th overall). With Lindy (32nd overall), Las Vegas Second Weekend League Four still has four teams pretty high in the pecking order and pecking at each others stats is a daily event.



Period 5 Results – For the week, I took a huge step back in offense. With the aforementioned injuries, I ended up with only 263 AB and a 0.262 batting average to go with the R/HR/RBI/SB results of 29/10/33/5. If I was slightly ahead of my targets in R/RBI, that is now gone and HR/SB I am still a half-week to week behind.



Mr.’s Hanrahan and Wilson each got me three saves, so my target deficit in that category has been made up. For the week, my starters got me three wins, 37 K’s, a 4.213 ERA to go with a 1.213 WHIP. With a 78% K rate and a better than 4.5:1 K/BB rate, this is not too bad. Take out (and boy would I) Narveson’s start against Cincinnati earlier this week (which accounted for 2 1/3 IP and 7 of the 22 earned runs of the week), you end up with seven good to great starts.



Period 6 Free Agents – There were three free-agent starters that I looked at, but decided I needed help other places first. Two of the two pitchers, Humber and Carrasco, were picked up, but the other is still available, so I am going to keep him in my hip pocket for now. Although Crisp is back, I still bid on Conor Jackson. I have said all along I would like to have another OF option (especially since I do not think Francoeur will keep it up), and while Jackson will not win any HR titles, especially in Oakland, I have a feeling his playing time will continue to rise. Crisp and Willingham have both already had nagging injuries and Daric Barton is getting pretty close to the end of his runway. Jackson could play regularly and do so from the middle of the order. Though my bid could not be considered big, at least one other person in my league must have been thinking the same thing as my $31 was the winner by only $2.



Period Six Plans – Remembering I want to be at or above 20% of available overall points in each category, after 4.5 weeks of baseball, I am there in four categories (BA, RBI, K, SV). I am only a good week away in one other (runs). One (wins) I cannot really control too much so I am hoping that the luck-component swings back my way a bit to improve on my 36% win to start ratio. It should be higher.



My concentration going forward at least in the intermediate term is on two pitching average stats (ERA and WHIP). I am actually ahead of what I targeted this year. I currently have a 3.781 ERA and a 1.250 WHIP, but that is only good for 176th and 134th place overall. My best hope to improve or at least hold those stats is to lock in on my best six starters and avoid too much second guessing. Yes, I will try to avoid pitching left-handers against Cincinnati, anyone in Texas or Yankee stadium, but really limit trying to out-smart baseball. Given I have two and soon to be three closers (Francisco), my last pitching spot will be a rotation of promising one or two starts or, absent good options, going with a third closer. For this particular week, I have eight healthy starters. Despite my concerns over McClellan, I think he starts over Santana and his start in Boston.



For my batting stats, I am still lagging in both home runs and stolen bases (170th and 266th respectively overall). That is not a good place to be because the options that are out there for the few flex spots in my line-up may help at one, but rarely both. My best hope for improving my position in speed will come organically from someone already on my roster. Dexter Fowler only has two stolen bases so far this year despite a health 0.378 OBP. I do not know if there is a hidden injury or if he is just not getting the green light, but healthy this guy can fly.



As to power, Hafner being hurt does not help. The three guys who are possible replacements, at least for the first half of the week, will not match his power, but they all come from the same team (Oakland) which will play four games. Kevin Kouzmanoff is one and is one of my reclamation projects. Right now he is still a land-fill with gulls feasting on it, so I will likely not use him. The other two are David DeJesus and Conor Jackson. Every blue-moon DeJesus will get a home run AND a stolen base. Jackson, as I mentioned earlier, is on the rise and has a bit more power, though he may not play all four games as DeJesus probably will. If the news is positive on Hafner this morning, I may stick with him, but otherwise I am leaning towards Jackson.



As always, I would love your good and bad (constructive) feedback, if you feel like showing your cards a bit.



[ May 02, 2011, 10:16 AM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]

[Edwards Kings]

Time to consider changing some targets. My pre-season levels are not matching up too well with actual results if I want to have a chance at the big prize. In my league I am sitting in third and have been fluctuating between the high 30’s and 50’s this past week in the Overall standings. However, I am only doing “well” in one category. My batting average is a 0.2815, which this year so far is good enough for second in my league and eighth overall. Right now anyone above 0.265 is in the game. What that does for me is allow me to perhaps take a little risk on BA if I can make some gains elsewhere. In short, I could probably adjust my BA target back from 0.280 to 0.275 and still be pretty safe.



As to Runs, I am tied for 5th in my league, but that is only good enough for 180th overall. I need fourteen to be at least in the top 20% percentile and am twenty-nine off my target. RBI’s are a little stronger (4th in my league and 89th overall), which only three off the 20th percentile and fifteen of my target. I am not going to adjust my targets since I am off about a half week for each, plus I am still falling short on homeruns. If I address homeruns, hopefully RBI’s and Runs will benefit.



I am in 6th place in my league for homeruns, 161st overall. I am a solid week behind my self-imposed targets (about eleven dingers), but only about six from cracking the top 20%. Most of my growth will come from whoever is already on my team. Braun is overproducing, but others like Aaron Hill (who I just got back), Chris Johnson, Jhonny Peralta, Dexter Fowler, Andre Ethier and Brian McCann have combined for only twelve long-balls this year. I see much upside. I will leave this target alone, too, for now.



Stolen bases are my real, true offensive weakness right now. For my pre-season targets, I am off by about five stolen bases, but I was way short in my assessment. In order to get to the top 20%, I am eleven off the pace. Eleven stolen bases is going to be pretty difficult to make up if I do not get a handle on it now (I am 10th in my league and 257th overall). Basically, right now you need 40 swipes to be where I want to be. Five teams in my league are already there or beyond and two more are three back. Outside of Fowler (who has only two), I do not really see getting much more from my offensive over the current run-rate. And Fowler will probably not be enough to catch up to the pack. If the free agent pool (picked pretty clean by my friendly league mates) does not have the right combination (i.e. both speed and opportunity), I may end up ditching the idea of improving my current run-rate (sorry Dan and everyone else for the poor but intended pun) which at best will leave me mid-pack and focus on the other nine categories.



I have the best pitching I have ever had in this event. I am sitting on a 3.543 ERA and 1.218 WHIP which should have me dancing in the aisles wearing only a thong and covered in honey (I hope you have all finished eating before you fully try to capture that picture). However, in this, the “Year of the Pitcher Part Deux”, those numbers are only good for 5th and 4th in my league and 131st and 93rd overall respectively. My best hope here will be for the pack to come back to me a bit. Especially after I get Oswalt’s back back, he with my NL dominated pitching staff of Marcum, Wandy, and Bailey with AL brethren Shields and Ervin Santana (now that he is mostly done pitching to the AL East on the road) should give me a solid top six with Lohse, McClellan, and Narveson rotating in and out depending on who is pitching against the Pirates or Astros. I am not out of the pitching market, but I would hate to waive any of those nine starters. I am going to adjust my ERA target down at least a quarter of a run, my WHIP down by 0.0345 and see if I can avoid too many pitching blow-ups.



Strikeouts are running a little hot in the NFBC right now. Compared to my pre-season targets, I am pretty much right on track to get about 1,300. However, I am only 141st overall, fifteen behind the top 20%. For K’s, that is not huge, so I will not change this target.



With Brian Wilson, Hanrahan, and Frank Francisco, I have three (or at least 2.5) closers. I am in 41st place overall (2nd in my league), but the difference between 41st and 100th place is about two saves. Good teams will have only about 80 saves by the end of the year, so there is not much room for error. There will be weeks that I go with three closers to try and build a little buffer.



One other funny little note. Right now, by a lot of luck, I am in the thick of the competition. No leading by any stretch and the view never changes if you are not the lead dog, but I can at least see where the big boys are. And I have only had one really good week. Beginning with the first full period (Week 2), I have finished for the week 11th, 117th, 76th, 175th, and 115th. Good weeks mainly, not great, so I am a little surprised to be doing as well as my team is. It would do my team a lot of good to really string some strong weeks together.



Period 7 Planning – Yes, I went for him. I still have a little over $500 in my free agent budget, so I can still grab some impact players if they present themselves, but I bid $411 on Eric Hosmer (next highest bid in my league was $312). He is the first player who, to me, had actually three things going for him. First, he has the talent. And by talent, I mean he can hit the ball. Whether or not it is in the form of doubles or homeruns, ONLY time will tell, but he appears not one of those uber-prospects with a hole in his swing that major league pitchers will exploit. Second, he has opportunity. It does not appear if KC will “break him in slowly”. His job is to be in games and hit. Plus his defense is not suspect which means there is no reason to pull him late. Thirdly, KC, he has been hitting fifth or sixth, which means he should have ducks on the pond in front of him like Freddie Freeman now. I can only remember one other time I have thrown such big bucks at a 21 year old rookie. That guy in 2004 ended up hitting 0.293 for me with 14 homeruns, 40 runs and RBI’s and stole six bases in 263 AB. His name was David Wright. While I may be willing to concede the power MAY not be there, the fact is Hosmer is up earlier and may get as many as 400 AB, so RBI and Runs should be better. With Youkilis, Chris Johnson, and James Loney as my cornermen, Hosmer can be a nice upgrade over Loney or Johnson. For now, Loney rides the pine as I think I would rather have Johnson’s power potential over Loney’s usually steady but unspectacular production.



Pitching was going to be so easy this week, then Oswalt went on the DL. That means that at least one of Santana (one good start potential this week and one in Texas), Lohse or McClellan (each have one start in Cincinnati) will start. Santana got blown up by Texas earlier in the year and once last year. He has also handled Texas, at times even in Arlington, in the past very well. He is coming off two good road starts, so he might be worth the risk. As to Lohse and McClellan, they are both ground ball right-handers, so hopefully that will mitigate the risk in Cincinnati. Even if I go with only six starters and three closers, I will have to use at least one.

[GYOZTES]

Congrats on going after Hosmer. Dangerous start this week for Lohse in Cincinnati.

[GYOZTES]

Congrats on going after Hosmer. Dangerous start this week for Lohse in Cincinnati.

[Edwards Kings]

Originally posted by GYOZTES:

Congrats on going after Hosmer. Dangerous start this week for Lohse in Cincinnati. That is very true. I am hoping that the right-handedness and the ground ball tendencies will see him through. I have to start at least one from McClellan, Lohse, or Santana.

[MadCow Sez]

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

quote:Originally posted by GYOZTES:

Congrats on going after Hosmer. Dangerous start this week for Lohse in Cincinnati. That is very true. I am hoping that the right-handedness and the ground ball tendencies will see him through. I have to start at least one from McClellan, Lohse, or Santana. [/QUOTE]We gambled the other way and put up a token bid at best. We'll see how it works out. I'm just getting leery of the one big injury effect derailing my train this year

[Edwards Kings]

Interesting week so far in that I chose to go with three closers. The third, Frankie Frank, has not done much for me yet. I only have two saves with a target this week of at least four or five, but with the weekend games coming up, I still have a chance to get them. The biggest risk of using only six starters is wins and K's. I need 16 K's with two starters and the three closers pitching over the weekend, so I have a chance. I already, thanks to Brian Wilson's win, four Wins already this week, which was my target. So far my ERA is good and my WHIP, while not good, is not crushing. My two remaining starts are Narveson versus Pittsburgh (the Pirates are not playing bad as their pitchers are keeping them in games, but I still view this as a potentially good start) and Ervin Santana in Texas, which very easily could blow up in my face. I sat Lohse and McClellan as each had one start in Cincinnati in favor of the extra start for Santana at home versus the White Sox. Santana did not have a good game giving up a two run shot to Beckham (good Jawja boy), a solo shot to Alexei Ramirez, the first batter of the seventh, which chased Santana from the game, and two run-scoring doubles to Quentin. The only good news is none of his three walks came home against him. In any regard I am already in the hole with my choice of going with the extra home start.



A lot of people must be having horrible weeks because my week has been "OK" (73rd right now in the Main), which is good enough to make me 29th Overall YTD right now. If I can escape the Texas start with Santana reasonably unscathed, maybe, just maybe I can have a good weekend (knock on wood).



I may not be able to post my normal blog Monday as I am traveling on business next week. I get to see Nantes and Paris for the first time, which is exciting, but I hate traveling on business. Anyway, if I can post, I will, but it will undoubtedly be a little later in the week.



Good luck all. As usual, I am chasing Ken Norred and Dan Semsel in my league, but Lindy is still kicking butt! And he still has most of his FA budget.



It is going to be a long summer.



[ May 13, 2011, 08:01 AM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]

[Edwards Kings]

Did you miss me last week? In my absence I thought about a few things I “know”:



It is early. Not quite 29% of the baseball year has passed.



I am lucky. While I have had some injuries, especially this past week, none have been long-term yet like Zimmerman’s. (knock on wood)



My pitching is carrying my team and performing over their collective heads. Regression is going to have to be expected.



My batting is underperforming as a whole. My hope is that sticks like Youk will keep heating up, others will start to heat up, because others, like Braun, will come back to earth a bit.



These are four things I know. And I am very fortunate (knocking on wood again) to be where I am (7th place overall at the end of the eighth period) and a little unlucky as I am only in 2nd place in my league as I try to catch that darn Lindy guy. I was in France last week (go to Paris…just go…it may be the best city I have ever been in) which meant I was unable to watch a singe baseball game (kind of an opposite RT Road Trip). I lost two players (Hafner and Victorino) to injuries and still had the third best week in the Overall thanks to one awesome week pitching. It all adds up to being a weird year so far. Or have you figured that out for yourself?



Period 8 – You dream about pitching weeks out of your starters like this. It didn’t begin too well as I was never confident that the Phillies would actually give Oswalt another minor league start. As it was, I have multiple multi start pitchers so even without my anchor, I could plan on eleven starts. They won seven of them! There are some weeks I have to make a deal with Satan to get two wins from my starters and this week I got seven wins. To go with them, I averaged slightly better than six strike-outs per game and a cumulative starter ERA/WHIP of 1.4211/0.8502. That is just sick. But I am not bitching.



My relievers were more yeoman, only getting me three saves and a win. Still, this week vaulted me to have the 5th most pitching points in the Main.



My bats were less impressive. While I hit my beginning of the year SB target for the week (six), I am still falling behind and losing Victorino will not help. Ryan Braun will not steal three every week, so I need some help here. I exceeded my RBI target with 46. Homeruns fell short again (8) and Hafner will be missed. I just missed my Runs target with 38 for the week and my BA was below target but “good” the way things are this year with a 0.273. In all, even with the injuries, I got 304 AB, which I think is more the cause of me hitting some of my batting numbers rather than guys not named Braun producing.



Period 9 FAAB – Losing Victorino and Hafner hurts. I need to replace the AB and give myself some OF flexibility with Ethier banged up. The only guy I really saw out there that had promise of playing most games was Allen Craig. He has OF eligibility but has also been playing 2B of late and has played 3B this year too. He has a pretty good stick, but LaRussa is batting him all over the place (2nd, 7th, 5th, 4th, and 6th in just the last five days). If he settles, I expect him to settle no higher than 6th (behind Albert, Matt, and Puma), so I do not have much hopes of solid R or RBI, but hopefully a little power until Victorino comes back in a week and a half.



I did make a bit of an investment, too. I went out and purchased the 2010 AFL MVP Dustin Ackley for $21 in hopes that Seattle will bring him up soon. His numbers in Tacoma have been productive and he shows promise of having a good eye. So far this year he has more walks (33) than K’s (26) with a little pop (7 HR in 186 AB) and speed (6), but he has yet to develop as anything other than a potential drag on your batting average, so there is some risk. I have Theriot or Hudson as my MI, so if Seattle brings him up soon, he could be an upgrade.



My first choice was Mike Moustakas, whom I bid $31 on, but my friend Bob Mazur had more man-love than me and won the bidding.



Period 9 Plans – Last week, every team was scheduled to play seven. That will not be the case this week so getting my 300+ AB will be a challenge. With my little gamble on Ackley, the only healthy offensive player left on my bench is Orlando Hudson, so any more injuries will be problematic.



Likewise, I will have at maximum eight starts this week, but to do so I will have to let my one two-start starter pitch in Colorado at the end of the week, Lohse, but I am not overly concerned after he held the Reds to two ER in six innings at Great American on his last road start. This St. Louis Kyle has a start tonight in San Diego, but that is not so much of a plus since he is generally a ground-ball pitcher. My problem is all the nine starters on my roster have good if not great match-ups except Bailey who is pitching in Philly. And even there the Phillies are not exactly pounding the ball right now. Lohse and McClellan are my two soft-tossers, so one will sit. I will probably also sit Bailey as well as more of a de-risk move. Oswalt (@NYM), Shields (vs CLE), Wandy (vs ARI), Marcum (vs SF), Ervin Santana (vs OAK), and Narveson (vs WAS) gives me six solid, mostly HOME starts.



As a matter of fact (or at least as much “fact” as you can get from trying to predict baseball), the next several weeks most of my starts are favorable. At some point soon, I may go to a three-closer set and take advantage of Frank Francisco as long as he has his job in Toronto to go with Wilson and Hanrahan. I hate wasting saves (even though Francisco got lite up once last week, he did get two saves). To use Francisco would mean I would sit one of my strike-out challenged starters like Lohse or McClellan. But that is tough, even though they have generally only struck out a batter ever other inning. Combined they have 11 wins in 17 GS, averaging pitching into the 8th inning, and have a combined 2.758 ERA and a 1.089 WHIP. No, they are not that good and a correction is coming, but until that time it is very tough to sit either.



Anyway, I doubt I get a total of eight wins again this week, but one never knows. This is a crazy year.



[ May 23, 2011, 02:37 PM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]

[Quahogs]

7th Overall ! Bust a nut Wayne ! Pedal to the metal !

[Edwards Kings]

Originally posted by Quahogs:

7th Overall ! Bust a nut Wayne ! Pedal to the metal ! Thanks! Coming from "The Man" who handed me my hat last year that means a great deal. I will do my best to keep it up for another 18-19 weeks!

[Quahogs]

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

quote:Originally posted by Quahogs:

7th Overall ! Bust a nut Wayne ! Pedal to the metal ! Thanks! Coming from "The Man" who handed me my hat last year that means a great deal. I will do my best to keep it up for another 18-19 weeks! [/QUOTE]Well you're already ahead of the game - you won't have Wayne Edwards outbidding you for every damn free agent you wanted from the All Star break on !

[Edwards Kings]

Originally posted by Quahogs:

quote:Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

quote:Originally posted by Quahogs:

7th Overall ! Bust a nut Wayne ! Pedal to the metal ! Thanks! Coming from "The Man" who handed me my hat last year that means a great deal. I will do my best to keep it up for another 18-19 weeks! [/QUOTE]Well you're already ahead of the game - you won't have Wayne Edwards outbidding you for every damn free agent you wanted from the All Star break on ! [/QUOTE]To funny because it was obvious that I impeded your efforts materially since you won (running away) the Overall with the 8th most batting points and the 2nd most pitching points!



You are a gracious champion!



[ May 24, 2011, 06:43 AM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]

[Edwards Kings]

When things are not necessarily going your way:



Your guy pitches beautifully, 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 H/BB, 5 K and the other teams dominate closer comes in for the 9th inning and preserves the tie. Good game pitched, but no big W.



When things ARE going your way (my knuckles hurt from knocking on wood so much):



Same scenario, but in this case, Heath Bell gets his first loss and gives up two runs so Kyle Lohse also gets the win.



It is good to get lucky sometimes.