**UPDATED** Average Draft Position (Top 90)
**UPDATED** Average Draft Position (Top 90)
adp is fun to look at and glenn did a nice job of putting it together, but those who get this years beltre and sheets in the later rounds will determine the winners. it's a nice start to grab more than 6 of the top 90 drafted though.
**UPDATED** Average Draft Position (Top 90)
I think a better value indicator would be to add the average draft position numbers, (not the number they are on the list), of the first 9 players you drafted. The lower the total the better the perceived value. Value being defined as the concensus of all leagues that were drafted. I chose 9 because at about that point you are forced to draft team needs as opposed to best available. We would need the average draft figures for another 50 or so players but I think that would be a pretty good indicator of what the majority would consider a strong draft.
My first 6 picks totaled 242.1
[ March 31, 2005, 03:57 PM: Message edited by: Ken ]
My first 6 picks totaled 242.1
[ March 31, 2005, 03:57 PM: Message edited by: Ken ]
**UPDATED** Average Draft Position (Top 90)
Also, I had both last year in another comp, and his run supoort was brutal. I am sure it will be better this year, but I am sure the stas already reflect that. Even if you say he gets 17 wins, its easy to argue that Santana could get 20. Sheets upside is about another 1.3 points with Santan's being 1.7. I had Santana ranked #1 overall with Sheets at #6. I considered Santana at my #1 slot (I chose Arod), but would never consider Sheets in the top 13.
I don't see how his peripheral stats and league equate to a higher ERA, but okay. Even if it's correct, they're close enough that anything can happen. It's like comparing a guy with a projection for a .268 average with another guy at .270. The chances of the .270 guy actually getting a better average is something like 51%.
The interesting thing about Sheets was not his offense but rather his offense. He had the worst run support on the Brewers staff. So even if he gets the same hitting team (which he won't) he'd have a 4/5 chance of getting a better offense. Same goes for Ollie Perez if anyone is interested.
I don't see how his peripheral stats and league equate to a higher ERA, but okay. Even if it's correct, they're close enough that anything can happen. It's like comparing a guy with a projection for a .268 average with another guy at .270. The chances of the .270 guy actually getting a better average is something like 51%.
The interesting thing about Sheets was not his offense but rather his offense. He had the worst run support on the Brewers staff. So even if he gets the same hitting team (which he won't) he'd have a 4/5 chance of getting a better offense. Same goes for Ollie Perez if anyone is interested.
Chance favors the prepared mind.
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nydownunder
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**UPDATED** Average Draft Position (Top 90)
Bjoak
Their track record and their teams makes all the difference to most people. Everyone predicted Santana would be star pitcher...Sheets has had far too many disappointments to make you 100% confident he will have a repeat type year. In the first couple rounds its best to be very confident with your player projections. Its better to take risks later in the draft.
If Sheets has another good year those two will be the first 2 SP's taken next year.
Their track record and their teams makes all the difference to most people. Everyone predicted Santana would be star pitcher...Sheets has had far too many disappointments to make you 100% confident he will have a repeat type year. In the first couple rounds its best to be very confident with your player projections. Its better to take risks later in the draft.
If Sheets has another good year those two will be the first 2 SP's taken next year.
Wagga Wagga Dingoes (NY#4)
Luck is where preparation meets opportunity!
Luck is where preparation meets opportunity!
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nydownunder
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**UPDATED** Average Draft Position (Top 90)
[/QUOTE]I don't see how his peripheral stats and league equate to a higher ERA, but okay. Even if it's correct, they're close enough that anything can happen. It's like comparing a guy with a projection for a .268 average with another guy at .270. The chances of the .270 guy actually getting a better average is something like 51%.
[/QB][/quote]
Be careful with that assessment IP's and AB's can make a big difference between the two. A batter with a .270 BA with 600 AB's can be worse off for your team than a.268 BA and 500 AB's (if looking at this category in isolation). Same can be said/anlyzed with IP - if Sheets runs the risk of pitching less IP's, and assuming he has a lower ERA, he could still be the worst choice between the two because you're going to fill that void (IP) with a #6 or 7 pitcher.
[/QB][/quote]
Be careful with that assessment IP's and AB's can make a big difference between the two. A batter with a .270 BA with 600 AB's can be worse off for your team than a.268 BA and 500 AB's (if looking at this category in isolation). Same can be said/anlyzed with IP - if Sheets runs the risk of pitching less IP's, and assuming he has a lower ERA, he could still be the worst choice between the two because you're going to fill that void (IP) with a #6 or 7 pitcher.
Wagga Wagga Dingoes (NY#4)
Luck is where preparation meets opportunity!
Luck is where preparation meets opportunity!
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LB Big Richards
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**UPDATED** Average Draft Position (Top 90)
Originally posted by bjoak:
What's interesting to me is that no one would have criticized me if I took Santana at pick 9. He's a virtual clone of Sheets. Except that Sheets has even more potential since he was pitching in pain last year. He's also pitching in the NL, good for a half-run better ERA going forward. If you're looking at 2004 wins, then go get Oswalt and see how many wins he nets on that team this year. I don't see the Brewers offense being much worse than Milwaukee's in 2005.
I wasn't going to make this about individuals, but I'd like to know why others think Santana is a better pick. Well, let's see:
1. Santana is on a team that'll win 20+ more games than Milwaukee.
2. Minnesota has a much stronger bullpen with Nathan, Rincon, Romero, and Crain. The Brew Crew have an unproven Adams and a washed up Bottalico.
3. Minnesota plays in a weaker division than Milwaukee.
4. Sheets had offseason back surgery.
Santana and Sheets are not "clones". Basically, Santana is good for at least 5 more wins, 20 more Ks, and 0.3 better ERA than Sheets.
I understand you didn't want to take the risk of him not being there at 22, but Sheets seems like a late 2nd, early 3rd round material. Do you really like Sheets that much more than Schmidt?
Alas, let's get the season under way. I'm personally tired of seing all the projections.
Good luck to you bjoak.
Hojin
What's interesting to me is that no one would have criticized me if I took Santana at pick 9. He's a virtual clone of Sheets. Except that Sheets has even more potential since he was pitching in pain last year. He's also pitching in the NL, good for a half-run better ERA going forward. If you're looking at 2004 wins, then go get Oswalt and see how many wins he nets on that team this year. I don't see the Brewers offense being much worse than Milwaukee's in 2005.
I wasn't going to make this about individuals, but I'd like to know why others think Santana is a better pick. Well, let's see:
1. Santana is on a team that'll win 20+ more games than Milwaukee.
2. Minnesota has a much stronger bullpen with Nathan, Rincon, Romero, and Crain. The Brew Crew have an unproven Adams and a washed up Bottalico.
3. Minnesota plays in a weaker division than Milwaukee.
4. Sheets had offseason back surgery.
Santana and Sheets are not "clones". Basically, Santana is good for at least 5 more wins, 20 more Ks, and 0.3 better ERA than Sheets.
I understand you didn't want to take the risk of him not being there at 22, but Sheets seems like a late 2nd, early 3rd round material. Do you really like Sheets that much more than Schmidt?
Alas, let's get the season under way. I'm personally tired of seing all the projections.
Good luck to you bjoak.
Hojin
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Evil Empire
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**UPDATED** Average Draft Position (Top 90)
Well done Richards. Bjoak is a B JOKE with that comment.
**UPDATED** Average Draft Position (Top 90)
Their track record and their teams makes all the difference to most people. Everyone predicted Santana would be star pitcher...Sheets has had far too many disappointments to make you 100% confident he will have a repeat type year. In the first couple rounds its best to be very confident with your player projections. Its better to take risks later in the draft.
If Sheets has another good year those two will be the first 2 SP's taken next year.
Actually, this is the smartest post I read all day. This is a far more legitimate argument than others I've heard. That said, I don't see regression for Sheets. I don't think you strike out that many guys by accident. So I am confident that he will have a repeat year and if I'm right hopefully people will respect my decision rather than saying it was a stupid pick because it might not have worked out. I don't see it as any more of a risk than any other pitcher (injury prone, the lot of them).
If Sheets has another good year those two will be the first 2 SP's taken next year.
Actually, this is the smartest post I read all day. This is a far more legitimate argument than others I've heard. That said, I don't see regression for Sheets. I don't think you strike out that many guys by accident. So I am confident that he will have a repeat year and if I'm right hopefully people will respect my decision rather than saying it was a stupid pick because it might not have worked out. I don't see it as any more of a risk than any other pitcher (injury prone, the lot of them).
Chance favors the prepared mind.
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Evil Empire
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**UPDATED** Average Draft Position (Top 90)
I would not say it was a stupid pick just extremely ballsy.
**UPDATED** Average Draft Position (Top 90)
Be careful with that assessment IP's and AB's can make a big difference between the two. A batter with a .270 BA with 600 AB's can be worse off for your team than a.268 BA and 500 AB's (if looking at this category in isolation). Same can be said/anlyzed with IP - if Sheets runs the risk of pitching less IP's, and assuming he has a lower ERA, he could still be the worst choice between the two because you're going to fill that void (IP) with a #6 or 7 pitcher.
You misunderstood me on the BA thing. I'm not saying those averages wouldn't affect you team at the end of the season. I'm saying that if you had the best projections in the world, BA will still vary because of luck and .270 and .268 (projected) guys have virtually the same range in possible BAs. It's damn near impossible to predict which of the two would have a better season in BA.
You know, I probably evaluate the BB/9 stat too highly, but that is really what I like most about Sheets compared to other aces. He had a 1.22 mark last year and always had good control. Guys make careers with that even without the Ks (see Boomer Wells). That leads to obvious gains in WHIP and IP and ultimately to Ks and wins.
You misunderstood me on the BA thing. I'm not saying those averages wouldn't affect you team at the end of the season. I'm saying that if you had the best projections in the world, BA will still vary because of luck and .270 and .268 (projected) guys have virtually the same range in possible BAs. It's damn near impossible to predict which of the two would have a better season in BA.
You know, I probably evaluate the BB/9 stat too highly, but that is really what I like most about Sheets compared to other aces. He had a 1.22 mark last year and always had good control. Guys make careers with that even without the Ks (see Boomer Wells). That leads to obvious gains in WHIP and IP and ultimately to Ks and wins.
Chance favors the prepared mind.
**UPDATED** Average Draft Position (Top 90)
1. Santana is on a team that'll win 20+ more games than Milwaukee.
2. Minnesota has a much stronger bullpen with Nathan, Rincon, Romero, and Crain. The Brew Crew have an unproven Adams and a washed up Bottalico.
3. Minnesota plays in a weaker division than Milwaukee.
4. Sheets had offseason back surgery.
1. Actually, they'll only lose 13 more but not while Sheets is on the mound.
2. I'm fine with the Brewers bullpen. I never said Sheets would win more games BTW, but I did say that he'd have a half run better ERA due to his league. There is a bit of a tradeoff there. With pitchers this good there's always a chance to win 20.
3. But a stronger league at least where ERA is concerned.
4. The back surgery was to fix the problem that didn't keep him off the field last year. He has ridiculous potential pain-free, and his ST health reports are very good. Also, it's worth noting that the Brewers have one of the top three pitching health programs in baseball. It wasn't a mistake that their entire staff improved last year.
On the other hand, Santana has a history of elbow problems. I'll take a pitcher with back problems over a pitcher with arm problems every day of the week and a thousand times on Sunday.
2. Minnesota has a much stronger bullpen with Nathan, Rincon, Romero, and Crain. The Brew Crew have an unproven Adams and a washed up Bottalico.
3. Minnesota plays in a weaker division than Milwaukee.
4. Sheets had offseason back surgery.
1. Actually, they'll only lose 13 more but not while Sheets is on the mound.
2. I'm fine with the Brewers bullpen. I never said Sheets would win more games BTW, but I did say that he'd have a half run better ERA due to his league. There is a bit of a tradeoff there. With pitchers this good there's always a chance to win 20.
3. But a stronger league at least where ERA is concerned.
4. The back surgery was to fix the problem that didn't keep him off the field last year. He has ridiculous potential pain-free, and his ST health reports are very good. Also, it's worth noting that the Brewers have one of the top three pitching health programs in baseball. It wasn't a mistake that their entire staff improved last year.
On the other hand, Santana has a history of elbow problems. I'll take a pitcher with back problems over a pitcher with arm problems every day of the week and a thousand times on Sunday.
Chance favors the prepared mind.
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King of Queens
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**UPDATED** Average Draft Position (Top 90)
Originally posted by bjoak:
4. The back surgery was to fix the problem that didn't keep him off the field last year. He has ridiculous potential pain-free, and his ST health reports are very good.By that logic, shouldn't Beltre have been the #1 overall pick?
4. The back surgery was to fix the problem that didn't keep him off the field last year. He has ridiculous potential pain-free, and his ST health reports are very good.By that logic, shouldn't Beltre have been the #1 overall pick?
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Evil Empire
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**UPDATED** Average Draft Position (Top 90)
Not Beltre, Aramis!
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Chest Rockwell
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**UPDATED** Average Draft Position (Top 90)
Originally posted by bjoak:
quote: 1. Santana is on a team that'll win 20+ more games than Milwaukee.
2. Minnesota has a much stronger bullpen with Nathan, Rincon, Romero, and Crain. The Brew Crew have an unproven Adams and a washed up Bottalico.
3. Minnesota plays in a weaker division than Milwaukee.
4. Sheets had offseason back surgery.
1. Actually, they'll only lose 13 more but not while Sheets is on the mound.
2. I'm fine with the Brewers bullpen. I never said Sheets would win more games BTW, but I did say that he'd have a half run better ERA due to his league. There is a bit of a tradeoff there. With pitchers this good there's always a chance to win 20.
3. But a stronger league at least where ERA is concerned.
4. The back surgery was to fix the problem that didn't keep him off the field last year. He has ridiculous potential pain-free, and his ST health reports are very good. Also, it's worth noting that the Brewers have one of the top three pitching health programs in baseball. It wasn't a mistake that their entire staff improved last year.
On the other hand, Santana has a history of elbow problems. I'll take a pitcher with back problems over a pitcher with arm problems every day of the week and a thousand times on Sunday. [/QUOTE]I know 4 things to be true:
1) The guy has guts to pick Sheets at 9 and stand by it.
2) You will never convince him it was a bad pick, why try.
3) I personally think his first 2 picks were by far the worst first 2 picks I saw in any league.
4) I will be the first to congratulate him and admit I was wrong if Sheets and Peavy have seasons that merit that high of a selection.
Looking forward to Sunday night.
quote: 1. Santana is on a team that'll win 20+ more games than Milwaukee.
2. Minnesota has a much stronger bullpen with Nathan, Rincon, Romero, and Crain. The Brew Crew have an unproven Adams and a washed up Bottalico.
3. Minnesota plays in a weaker division than Milwaukee.
4. Sheets had offseason back surgery.
1. Actually, they'll only lose 13 more but not while Sheets is on the mound.
2. I'm fine with the Brewers bullpen. I never said Sheets would win more games BTW, but I did say that he'd have a half run better ERA due to his league. There is a bit of a tradeoff there. With pitchers this good there's always a chance to win 20.
3. But a stronger league at least where ERA is concerned.
4. The back surgery was to fix the problem that didn't keep him off the field last year. He has ridiculous potential pain-free, and his ST health reports are very good. Also, it's worth noting that the Brewers have one of the top three pitching health programs in baseball. It wasn't a mistake that their entire staff improved last year.
On the other hand, Santana has a history of elbow problems. I'll take a pitcher with back problems over a pitcher with arm problems every day of the week and a thousand times on Sunday. [/QUOTE]I know 4 things to be true:
1) The guy has guts to pick Sheets at 9 and stand by it.
2) You will never convince him it was a bad pick, why try.
3) I personally think his first 2 picks were by far the worst first 2 picks I saw in any league.
4) I will be the first to congratulate him and admit I was wrong if Sheets and Peavy have seasons that merit that high of a selection.
Looking forward to Sunday night.
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King of Queens
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**UPDATED** Average Draft Position (Top 90)
Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:
I know 4 things to be true:
1) The guy has guts to pick Sheets at 9 and stand by it.
2) You will never convince him it was a bad pick, why try.
3) I personally think his first 2 picks were by far the worst first 2 picks I saw in any league.
4) I will be the first to congratulate him and admit I was wrong if Sheets and Peavy have seasons that merit that high of a selection.
Looking forward to Sunday night. I agree with everything you said--we've come a long way from "You could argue that point, but you would be wrong."
I know 4 things to be true:
1) The guy has guts to pick Sheets at 9 and stand by it.
2) You will never convince him it was a bad pick, why try.
3) I personally think his first 2 picks were by far the worst first 2 picks I saw in any league.
4) I will be the first to congratulate him and admit I was wrong if Sheets and Peavy have seasons that merit that high of a selection.
Looking forward to Sunday night. I agree with everything you said--we've come a long way from "You could argue that point, but you would be wrong."
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Chest Rockwell
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**UPDATED** Average Draft Position (Top 90)
Originally posted by King of Queens:
quote:Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:
I know 4 things to be true:
1) The guy has guts to pick Sheets at 9 and stand by it.
2) You will never convince him it was a bad pick, why try.
3) I personally think his first 2 picks were by far the worst first 2 picks I saw in any league.
4) I will be the first to congratulate him and admit I was wrong if Sheets and Peavy have seasons that merit that high of a selection.
Looking forward to Sunday night. I agree with everything you said--we've come a long way from "You could argue that point, but you would be wrong." [/QUOTE]Anyone who puts as much work as you did in getting that top 90 out cannot be all bad.
quote:Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:
I know 4 things to be true:
1) The guy has guts to pick Sheets at 9 and stand by it.
2) You will never convince him it was a bad pick, why try.
3) I personally think his first 2 picks were by far the worst first 2 picks I saw in any league.
4) I will be the first to congratulate him and admit I was wrong if Sheets and Peavy have seasons that merit that high of a selection.
Looking forward to Sunday night. I agree with everything you said--we've come a long way from "You could argue that point, but you would be wrong." [/QUOTE]Anyone who puts as much work as you did in getting that top 90 out cannot be all bad.
**UPDATED** Average Draft Position (Top 90)
I know that I am a little late replying to the top 90, but I'll take this chance to comment...
I have the average 6 out of 90, but I feel pretty good about them. I had the 12th pick and all 6 that I have, I got at better than the national average. I could have got 1-2 more, but I spent rounds 6-10 picking position and stat needs rather than specifcally best player available. (For instance, by round 7, I had no SP yet, so I took Halladay and Mulder because I didn't want to wait on the next teir).
Nice work on the list by the way.
I have the average 6 out of 90, but I feel pretty good about them. I had the 12th pick and all 6 that I have, I got at better than the national average. I could have got 1-2 more, but I spent rounds 6-10 picking position and stat needs rather than specifcally best player available. (For instance, by round 7, I had no SP yet, so I took Halladay and Mulder because I didn't want to wait on the next teir).
Nice work on the list by the way.
Ken
**UPDATED** Average Draft Position (Top 90)
We study and we analyze and it all means crap as soon as the first oblique is pulled, the ankle sprained and first of many bones broken. But it sure is fun to show everyone know that we indeed are legends in our our minds. However; the season opens Sunday so let's PLAY BALL and see who can walk the talk! Good luck everyone and remember, this is FUN, not life and death, don't forget that.
Plymouth
www.twinstrivia.com
www.twinstrivia.com
**UPDATED** Average Draft Position (Top 90)
We study and we analyze and it all means crap as soon as the first oblique is pulled, the ankle sprained and first of many bones broken. But it sure is fun to show everyone know that we indeed are legends in our our minds. However; the season opens Sunday so let's PLAY BALL and see who can walk the talk! Good luck everyone and remember, this is FUN, not life and death, don't forget that. Well, it means crap unless you have good health info...and a good bench. Then you can see the research pay off.
Chance favors the prepared mind.
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Balticsquids
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**UPDATED** Average Draft Position (Top 90)
Good quote Ply