Look at all these people on the boards!

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Tue Jan 11, 2011 10:24 am

Hanley and Matt Kemp are brothers from another mother.

Raskol · Post by **Raskol** » Tue Jan 11, 2011 10:27 am

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

Where's Cindy when you need her? after hearing your team from the SCL draft, i'd suggest having Cindy draft your big money teams this year!!

[/QUOTE]I swear that draft had a 3.0 rating. [/QUOTE]Zing!

Half your team is too young to drink and the other half is too old to notice!

Somewhat more seriously, you have a few of my favorite targets rostered. Nice job.

Raskol · Post by **Raskol** » Tue Jan 11, 2011 10:58 am

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

Do you think Jurgita Valts with make an impact this season? With that eye-popping curve, it's a given!

The Franchise · Post by **The Franchise** » Tue Jan 11, 2011 10:58 am

Originally posted by RoundTrippers:

quote:Originally posted by The Franchise:

Does anyone think that Hanley will not..........

Hit - 25 HR

Steal - 30 SB

Score - 90 Runs

Drive in - 80 RBI

all of those are a lock!! stolen bases would be the scariest cat for me.

Hit for a - .300 AVG [/QUOTE]I think there are going to be some dissapointed Hanley owners this year?

Raskol · Post by **Raskol** » Tue Jan 11, 2011 11:09 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Hanley and Matt Kemp are brothers from another mother. Rhianna must be so confused!

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Tue Jan 11, 2011 11:10 am

That is the state she hails from.

Raskol · Post by **Raskol** » Tue Jan 11, 2011 11:34 am

Here's some REAL news:

Josh Hamilton is in the hospital with pneumonia.---Why wait until the season starts to go on the DL?

Pablo Sandoval has lost weight.---There are alot of directions I could go with this, but I won't. Chest might kick my a$$ next time we're in band camp. All I'm saying is that if you weigh more than your batting average and your average isn't that bad.....well, you get the picture.

Trevor Hoffman has decided to retire.---In an off-season where Joaquin Benoit gets $15 million and you still can't find a job, it's best to hang up the cleats.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Tue Jan 11, 2011 11:46 am

Originally posted by Raskol:

Here's some REAL news:

Josh Hamilton is in the hospital with pneumonia.---Why wait until the season starts to go on the DL?

Pablo Sandoval has lost weight.---There are alot of directions I could go with this, but I won't. Chest might kick my a$$ next time we're in band camp. All I'm saying is that if you weigh more than your batting average and your average isn't that bad.....well, you get the picture.

Trevor Hoffman has decided to retire.---In an off-season where Joaquin Benoit gets $15 million and you still can't find a job, it's best to hang up the cleats. Hamilton will be our President in 25 years.

That autobiography is writing itself.

Sandoval is like Oprah. Skinny, fat....it doesn't matter, they just don't look right

Hells Bells, Hoffman shouldn't have chased a number.

Confucious say, "Never chase number when number up"

[ January 11, 2011, 05:47 PM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]

Raskol · Post by **Raskol** » Tue Jan 11, 2011 11:58 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

quote:Originally posted by Raskol:

Here's some REAL news:

Josh Hamilton is in the hospital with pneumonia.---Why wait until the season starts to go on the DL?

Pablo Sandoval has lost weight.---There are alot of directions I could go with this, but I won't. Chest might kick my a$$ next time we're in band camp. All I'm saying is that if you weigh more than your batting average and your average isn't that bad.....well, you get the picture.

Trevor Hoffman has decided to retire.---In an off-season where Joaquin Benoit gets $15 million and you still can't find a job, it's best to hang up the cleats. Hamilton will be our President in 25 years.

That autobiography is writing itself.

Sandoval is like Oprah. Skinny, fat....it doesn't matter, they just don't look right

Hells Bells, Hoffman shouldn't have chased a number.

Confucious say, "Never chase number when number up" [/QUOTE]Have any Presidents had tattoos? I trust that none have had quite so many as Josh, but who knows what Jefferson et al had going on under those ruffles & wigs.

For all who blame Kemp's struggles on Rhianna, I urge you to see what Alex Rodriguez has been doing in Hawaii this winter.

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Tue Jan 11, 2011 2:56 pm

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

Do you think Jurgita Valts with make an impact this season? i would like Jurgita in a "sloooooooooooooow" draft?

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Tue Jan 11, 2011 3:11 pm

Originally posted by Kentucky Reign:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

Do you think Jurgita Valts with make an impact this season? i would like Jurgita in a "sloooooooooooooow" draft? [/QUOTE]I don't think you have the knees to handle that heat!

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Tue Jan 11, 2011 3:20 pm

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by Kentucky Reign:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

Do you think Jurgita Valts with make an impact this season? i would like Jurgita in a "sloooooooooooooow" draft? [/QUOTE]I don't think you have the knees to handle that heat! [/QUOTE]KNEES?? you have got to be kidding?

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Tue Jan 11, 2011 3:26 pm

Gives this graemlin a new meaning...

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Tue Jan 11, 2011 3:29 pm

Originally posted by Kentucky Reign:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by Kentucky Reign:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

Do you think Jurgita Valts with make an impact this season? i would like Jurgita in a "sloooooooooooooow" draft? [/QUOTE]I don't think you have the knees to handle that heat! [/QUOTE]KNEES?? you have got to be kidding?

[/QUOTE]Maybe we have different scouting reports!

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Tue Jan 11, 2011 3:33 pm

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Gives this graemlin a new meaning...

exactly what i was thinking dough!!!! we need another graemlin...

Raskol · Post by **Raskol** » Tue Jan 11, 2011 3:53 pm

We could debate the merits of Ms. Valts' curve(s), but lets talk baseball. Does that make me old? Who knows, I'm 40 years young now so anything goes!

Lots of talk of finding that round 5, 6 or 7 guy who gives you first round production. CarGon is awesome, we know it. Is the first round material in 2011? Not sure, I don't think I would do it because I want SECURITY in round one. But that's beside the point....

Who is currently going in those rounds who will give you round one production in 2011? Here are a few names to chew on:

Weeks (sorry, Dough, but who knows) could go 25-25 and with a few lucky hits might approach .280ish AVG.

Hanson is going to bust out like crazy at some point and Atlanta is a petri dish for producing great arms.

Kershaw is just as young and has more experience. Oh, and he's a southpaw.

Stanton's only question is when, not if. .275 and 40 HRs is on the way.

Gardner's .400 OBP should get noticed by somebody in the front office. Jeter's much lower one should be noticed as well. Just sayin'.....

Bay can't be as bad as he was last year. Wright proved that Mets can hit for power last year. Bay will follow and earn at least part of his salary this year.

Delmon Young made HUGE strides in 2010...can they continue?

There are plenty more out there, these are just a few conversation starters. Let's go!

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Tue Jan 11, 2011 4:21 pm

Damn Emory, you ruined it. we were indulging in some great curves, now you want everyone to reveal all their sleepers for the upcoming year.

when in realty, we would rather reveal, or unveil, Jurgita.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Tue Jan 11, 2011 4:28 pm

A stud can rejurgitate

Raskol · Post by **Raskol** » Tue Jan 11, 2011 4:30 pm

Originally posted by Kentucky Reign:

Damn Emory, you ruined it. we were indulging in some great curves, now you want everyone to reveal all their sleepers for the upcoming year.

when in realty, we would rather reveal, or unveil, Jurgita. All these sleepers have slept around. Probably more than your Ms. Jurgita!

I thought of another one...Sizemore. Microfracture knee surgery doesn't sound positive, but I think he hits third so RBI chances are there. If his legs can hold him up he might still run, so 30-20 could be had for a bargain.

Or maybe he plays in 8 games and you're SOL. FUN.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Tue Jan 11, 2011 5:09 pm

Originally posted by Raskol:

quote:Originally posted by Kentucky Reign:

Damn Emory, you ruined it. we were indulging in some great curves, now you want everyone to reveal all their sleepers for the upcoming year.

when in realty, we would rather reveal, or unveil, Jurgita. All these sleepers have slept around. Probably more than your Ms. Jurgita!

I thought of another one...Sizemore. Microfracture knee surgery doesn't sound positive, but I think he hits third so RBI chances are there. If his legs can hold him up he might still run, so 30-20 could be had for a bargain.

Or maybe he plays in 8 games and you're SOL. FUN. [/QUOTE]Let's get it straight..I discovered Valts....Bill gets sloppy seconds!

Raskol · Post by **Raskol** » Tue Jan 11, 2011 5:24 pm

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by Raskol:

quote:Originally posted by Kentucky Reign:

Damn Emory, you ruined it. we were indulging in some great curves, now you want everyone to reveal all their sleepers for the upcoming year.

when in realty, we would rather reveal, or unveil, Jurgita. All these sleepers have slept around. Probably more than your Ms. Jurgita!

I thought of another one...Sizemore. Microfracture knee surgery doesn't sound positive, but I think he hits third so RBI chances are there. If his legs can hold him up he might still run, so 30-20 could be had for a bargain.

Or maybe he plays in 8 games and you're SOL. FUN. [/QUOTE]Let's get it straight..I discovered Valts....Bill gets sloppy seconds! [/QUOTE]Bill would be fine with that I think. Most folks would.

What does everyone think of Target field? I say Hitters Graveyard.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Jan 15, 2011 2:41 am

We now have two years of information on the NFBC 12 team event. I’ve struggled with the change from the 15 team event to the 12 team. In order to beat a large field, you need to get batting average, ERA, and whip right. At the same time you need to be in the top 20 % in every other category. The overall winner the past two years has come from a front position in the draft. An Albert Pujols team won in 2009 and last year Hanley Ramirez was on the winning team.

The first year of the 12 team event there were 600 teams. Last year there were 828. You needed to be higher than 165th overall in each category to finish in the top 20 %. In order to win the overall, you will have to be in the top 10 % in some categories. Here are the final top 20 % numbers from the past two years.

Batting Average: There was a huge drop in batting average from 2009. You needed to hit .2757 to be in the top 20 % and .2791 to be in the top 10 %. In 2009, you needed to hit .2813 to be in the top 20 %.

Run: You needed 1102 runs to be in the top 20 % and 1128 to be in the top 10 %. 2009 – 1145 runs would put you in the top 20 %.

Homeruns: There was a big drop in homeruns. You needed to hit 272 HR’s last year to finish in the top 20 % and 284 for the top 10 %. 2009 – 299 put you in the top 20 %.

RBI: RBI’s had a huge decline. It’s almost like it was one whole player different. Last year you needed to have 1062 RBI to be in the top 20 % and 1091 put you in the top 10 %. 2009 – 1124 RBI was the target number to be in the top 20 %.

Steals: There was only a slight drop off in SB’s. You needed 178 steals to finish in the top 20 % and 190 to be in the top 10 %. 2009 – 184 put you in the top 20 %.

Wins: With better pitching, the win total to be in the top 20 % rose to 108 and 112 to be in the top 10 %. 2009 – 100 wins put you in the top 20 %.The gap from top 20 % to the top 10 % was 4 in both years.

ERA: You needed a 3.472 ERA to be in the top 20 % and 3.384 would put you in the top 10 %. 2009 - 3.739 put you in the top 20 %.

Whip: You needed a whip of 1.231 to be in the top 20 % and 1.213 would put you in the top 10 %. 2009 – 1.271 put you in the top 20 %.

Strikeouts: You needed 1385 K’s to be in the top 20 % and 1423 to be in the top 10 %. 2009 – The top 20 % was 1332.

Saves: The save total was almost the same as 2009. You needed 95 saves to be in the top 20 % and 103 to be in the top 10 %. 2009 – 94 saves put you in the top 20 %.

The team that won the 2009 online championship finished with 5542 points out of 6000 which was an incredible 92.3 %. The second place team finished with 91.4 %. There were only 10 teams that finished with more than 80 % of the total points. Last year the winning team had 92.1 % of the overall points. There were 13 teams that finished with more than 20 % of the overall points. The 2nd team overall team finished with 88.3 % of the overall points.

If you are planning on winning the overall title in the NFBC 12 event, you better set your goals high. I think you need a team that hits .280+ with 1125 R, 290 HR, 1100 RBI, and 190 SB. For pitching, you need better than 104 W, 3.50 ERA, 1.25 Whip, 1350 K’s, and 104 SV. You will need to average 44 R, 11 HR, 43 RBI, 7.5 SB, 4 W, 52 K’s and 4 SV per week to have a shot at winning the overall title.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Jan 15, 2011 2:48 am

We just completed the seventh season of the NFBC. We may have witnesses a change in the game. There was a steep decline in power and elite pitching number around every corner. My first thought is regarding Ms. Judy. Does she have more value in a depressed homerun market? Is the elite power hitter a must own in the first two rounds? Should my game plan change due to the change in skill set of the inventory? There are so many questions to be answered and so much will change this year. You need to aware of the trends, but you also need to understand the change in inventory.

Last year there were 435 teams in the NFBC. It’s time to look at the overall standings and get a feel for what it took to end up in the 20 percent in every category. If you finished the year with 3480 points, you would have a point total equal to the finishing 87th in every category. To win the main event, you will need to average more than 80 percent of the points in all categories plus you will need to have an edge in two or three others. I’m thinking 80 percent plus about 150 points should win most years. If the event size grows the 150 number will also grow. Last year’s winner finished with an amazing 3925.5 points (90.2 %). There were 9 teams that finished will 80 % or more total points. The past winners won with these percentages: 83.8, 86.7, 85.7, 86.2, and 81. After looking at these numbers, maybe the target number to win the overall should be more than 85 percent of the points across the board.

Here’s a look at all ten categories:

Batting Average: The highest batting average in the NFBC main in 2010 was .2842. There was a huge decline in batting average this season. You needed to hit .2733 to finish in the top 20 % and .2765 to finish in the top 10 % in 2010. To finish in the top 20 % in 2009 - .2793, 2008 - .2797, 2007 - .2829, 2006 - .2845, 2005 - .2785, and 2004 - .2829. 2010 makes five straight years of batting average decline. Maybe next year we should adjust our number down. We will have weaker stats to plan for 2011. In 2011, I’m lowering my goal to .278 which is still a lot higher than last season final 20 % number. I failed in this area this year. An elite batting average is a huge edge in a competition with an overall prize.

Runs: This year you needed 1058 runs to finish in the top 20% and 1090 to be in the top 10 %. Top 20 % in 2009 – 1096, 2008 – 1106, 2007 – 1131, 2006 – 1154, 2005 – 1084, and 2004 – 1158. Just like BA, runs scored trends down in a year when overall pitching is better. Runs have declined five straight years. I’m using 1075 as my target number for 2011.

Homeruns: The first couple years of the NFBC it seemed like 300 homeruns was the target number heading into the season. This year 253 HR’s put you in the top 20 % and 264 in the top 10 %. Top 20 % in 2009 – 279, 2008 – 273, 2007 – 266, 2006 – 293, 2005 – 274, and 2004 – 298. After a slight bump in HR’s in 2009, we saw a huge decline this season. 2011 presents a different problem when you are deciding your HR goal. You have to believe we have reached a bottom of the trend. I’m going to use 275 as my target number.

RBI: The RBI total is typically 25 less than runs. This is the result of runs scored by double plays or errors. Last year 1015 RBI put you in the top 20 % and 1043 in the top 10 %. Top 20 % in 2009 – 1068, 2008 – 1076, 2007 – 1102, 2006 – 1119, 2005 – 1053, and 2004 – 1102. I’ll set my RBI goal at 1050 for next season.

Steals: Last year I think there were more overall steals, but the top 20 % number declined slightly to 170. You needed 180 to finish in the top 20 %. Top 20 % in 2009 – 175, 2008 – 161, 2007 – 172, 2006 – 162, 2005 – 151, and 2004 – 150. I think this number is dictated by plus base stealers. This year there were 8 players that stole more than 40 bases and there were 11 more players that stole 30+ bases, but only three player from the infield – Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, and Elvis Andrus.

Wins: Wins are the most painful category in fantasy baseball. Without looking at the data, my goal is 104 wins. It’s pretty straight forward – 4 wins a week for 26 weeks. This year you needed 104 wins to be in the top 20 % and 107 to be in the top 10 %. Top 20 % in 2009 – 98, 2008 – 99, 2007 – 99, 2006 – 103, 2005 – 103, and 2004 – 98.

ERA: There was great starting pitching in 2010. You need an ERA of 3.587 to be in the top 20 % and 3.465 to be in the top 10 %. Top 20 in 2009 – 3.853, 2008 – 3.808, 2007 – 3.941, 2006 – 4.081, 2005 – 3.679, and 2004 – 3.90. ERA is tough to gage in a draft or auction. I’ll use 3.75 as a base line, but in most years I’ll be ahead of the curve if I hit my number. In 2011, you might need to push your target number to 3.60.

WHIP: This number pretty much parallels ERA. For every three base runners, a pitcher gives up one run. A pitcher with a 1.25 whip should post about a 3.75 era…..a 1.30 whip = 3.90 era. It isn’t that simple because homeruns and walks are huge factors, but I’ll use 1.25 to parallel my era target. Last year you needed a 1.247 whip to finish in the top 20 % and a 1.230 whip for top 10 %. Top 20 % in 2009 – 1.293, 2008 – 1.286, 2007 – 1.296, 2006 – 1.309, 2005 – 1.255, and 2004 – 1.279.

Strikeouts: I pretty much use 1250 strikeouts as my goal heading into the season. If I need more I might to add a couple of double starts to reach my goal. For me, it breaks down to between 48 and 50 strikeouts a week. If you miss that number, you are behind the field. This year K’s were up across the board, but the highest total in the league lower than past years. This year it took 1317 to finish in the top 20% and 1356 for top 10 %. Top 20 % in 2009 – 1273, 2008 – 1240, 2007 – 1205, 2006 – 1188, 2005 – 1187, and 2004 – 1230. I’m using 1300 this year just based on last year’s inventory.

Saves: You needed 83 saves to finish in the top 20 % and 90 for the top 10 %. An 84 save target seems likes a number you should be able to approach with two closers. My goal is 3 and ½ saves a week which would put me in the 90 range. If you can reach your desired number with two closers, you might have a better chance at success as far as wins go. Top 20 % in 2009 – 84, 2008 – 87, 2007 – 85, 2006 – 87, 2005 – 95, and 2004 – 95.

As the inventory changes, we need to adjust our game plans to accomplish our goals. A 40 homerun hitter has more value in a down year in homeruns. A 300 strikeout pitcher has a bigger impact when few pitchers are striking out 200 batters. When we prepare for next seasons drafts, we need to find opportunity in the draft or auction. Once you establish your goals, you then need to find a game plan to reach your goals. You will do this by studying drafts, player rankings, and paying attention to player trends.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Sat Jan 15, 2011 4:07 am

Thanks for these NFBC posts Shawn. You're THE BEST and I appreciate it. I want nothing more than to see the 15-team format strategy talk and baseball talk continue on these boards until everything is resolved. One way or another, something has to get resolved very soon for all of us involved. Until then, nothing is better than continuing to talk about how to win the NFBC's Main Event and planning for this great, great format. Again, MUCH THANKS.

Oh, and you'll love this one Shawn! My 9-year-old boy won a local bowling tournament last week and advances to a regional tournament!! He just learned to bowl this year, so he sandbagged early on and now has the hang of things. He's going to be tough to beat with that big handicap!!

Hells Satans · Post by **Hells Satans** » Mon Jan 17, 2011 8:07 am

Good stuff.

Although the targets may change from year to year, one thing that remains remarkably consistent is the difference between finishing spots in the various categories. For example, the difference in Runs Scored between the 150th spot and 40th spot from 2010-2007 has been 68, 61, 66, and 68. HRs and SB are equally close whereas RBI shows a little more year to year variance.

So, while you may not know the target you need, you pretty much know that you'll need 66 or so runs and x HRs more than the 150th team if you want to finish in the Top 40.

If nothing else, this allows you determine the marginal value of each run as compared to each HR to each RBI to each SB between the 40th the 150th spot (or any other arbitrary spot you want to use), i.e., beyond the average totals of the 150th spot - whatever the average of that spot actually turns out to be really doesn't matter - each steal is worth 2.347 RBIs, or something like that.

[ January 17, 2011, 02:10 PM: Message edited by: Hells Satans ]