Live Chat With Todd Zola: Thursday, 7 pm ET

[ToddZ]

Todd
If Phils move Papelbon, who steps up?
Bastardo? Managers tend to shy away from lefty closers.

I have no idea but the while LH closer thing is a little overblown. I don't see Papelbon being moved unless the Phils are way out of it and at that point, you don't worry about LH or RH closers.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Todd, just for fun, let's play the Chicago/New York game....

1.Chicago Style or New York style pizza?

2.Who's better in two years, the Cubs or Mets?

3.Who would you rather have rostered over a career, Hendricks or Syndergaard?

4.Who has a better year, Abreu or Tanaka?
Or, put another way, who is the first on draft boards in 2015?

5.Who gets more Saves, Veras or Parnell?

6.Who Closes for the White Sox?

7. Does Robertson really Close for the Yankees?

8.In a DC, who would you rather have rostered as 'backups', Dunn/Konerko or Davis/Duda?

9.Who gets more at bats, Matt Davidson or Kelly Johnson?

10. Who gets more at bats, Gordon Beckham or Brian Roberts?

[ToddZ]

Todd, just for fun, let's play the Chicago/New York game....

1.Chicago Style or New York style pizza?

New York but it's not like I'll turn down a deep dish.

2.Who's better in two years, the Cubs or Mets?

Mets young pitching is promising but the Cubs have some nice position players. I'll say Cubs because Theo is my hero.

3.Who would you rather have rostered over a career, Hendricks or Syndergaard?

Syndergaard.

4.Who has a better year, Abreu or Tanaka?
Or, put another way, who is the first on draft boards in 2015?

I think Abreu has the better year but Tanaka may still be taken earlier in '15.

5.Who gets more Saves, Veras or Parnell?

Parnell

6.Who Closes for the White Sox?

no idea - Nathan Jones is the sexy pick but I don't know.

7. Does Robertson really Close for the Yankees?

The second Tanaka signed Robertson became a top-10 closer on my board.

8.In a DC, who would you rather have rostered as 'backups', Dunn/Konerko or Davis/Duda?

I suppose Davis and Duda but neither thrill me

9.Who gets more at bats, Matt Davidson or Kelly Johnson?

Close but I'll say Davidson

10. Who gets more at bats, Gordon Beckham or Brian Roberts?

Beckham

[TOXIC ASSETS]

As a Phils fan I agree with you Todd on the Phils closer situation.
Personally - I wouldn't be drafting any of these guys.
Phils are in for a long year.

[ToddZ]

As a Phils fan I agree with you Todd on the Phils closer situation.
Personally - I wouldn't be drafting any of these guys.
Phils are in for a long year.

When I heard the Phils signed Abreu my first reaction was "that's cool - give him one of those one-day contracts so he can retire as a Phillie."

My second reaction was

WTF!?!?!?!?!?!?

[Captain Hook]

....and your third reaction might have been ... WTH take a run and then try and sell high on Domonic Brown and see if Ryan Howard can hit enough long balls to gain some interest and/or Rollins is playing well enough to be attractive and let's get the makeover started

[DOUGHBOYS]

Apparently, you guys haven't been reading Amaro's blurb's...

"THIS TEAM IS BUILT TO WIN NOW!"

I think most agree they are built to lose...NOW.

[Edwards Kings]

Accepting that the answer depends on when you could get them or how much you have to pay, which of these young outfielders do you REALLY want (i.e. can really help) on your team?

Billy "Watch Me Steal First" Hamilton
Jackie "What the Hell is a Grady Sizemore" Bradley
Christian "Please do not Make Me Look at that Statue" Yelich
Avisail "You Know it is Bad When You are not as Cool as the Cubbies" Garcia
Junior "The Cubbies are Cool?" Lake

[ToddZ]

Accepting that the answer depends on when you could get them or how much you have to pay, which of these young outfielders do you REALLY want (i.e. can really help) on your team?

Billy "Watch Me Steal First" Hamilton
Jackie "What the Hell is a Grady Sizemore" Bradley
Christian "Please do not Make Me Look at that Statue" Yelich
Avisail "You Know it is Bad When You are not as Cool as the Cubbies" Garcia
Junior "The Cubbies are Cool?" Lake

Based on the leagues and mocks I have done, this is the order I am most likely to draft these guys - this isn't how I have them ranked, only my perception of the player versus market perception

1. Garcia -- I like taking my chances mid to late and you have to like the park for power
2. Bradley -- I'll take him as my OF 4 or OF 5 and dump him if he struggles or is in a platoon.
3&4. Yelich and Lake -- pretty much tied. I just don't trust Lake and others are willing to pay the hype tax on Yelich
5. Hamilton -- Really not close. I understand the potential but I don't like the way he forces you to construct a team around those steals. My style of drafting is to choose not chase and with Hamilton, you could be forced to chase power/RBI and that restricts the inventory.

[Edwards Kings]

How about some old dudes. Which one of these geriatric OFers (pictured here) could fit your plans?

Cuddyer
Werth
Soriano
Crisp

[DOUGHBOYS]

Do you feel like a slave to your projections during drafts?

Let me give a little basis for this question. 'Experts' get a bad rap. And I know it is the publishers or site heads that refer to writers as experts, not themselves. You are one of the few that make projections and play with the big boys and I think everybody in the NFBC respects the hell out of that.

At the same time, each draft takes on its own dimension. I know that you are just not going to go down your projections lists to make your selections. You'll let the projections AND the draft determine your selection.
At the same time, a draft makes us sometimes do things we don't want to do. For instance, if you've covered batting average, speed, and are completely satisfied with your pitching staff, power becomes a must.
In round 19, most power is lost. A corner is needed and Adam Dunn would provide 'instant' power, but like others, you don't particularly care for the baggage that comes with owning Dunn.

This isn't a Dunn or somebody else question though. This is a, do you feel like taking a shower for even considering a guy like Dunn?
Do you stick to your guns with your projections on a 98% basis or will you fall prey to adp from time to time?

Your answer doesn't have to be as long as this long-winded question....

[ToddZ]

How about some old dudes. Which one of these geriatric OFers (pictured here) could fit your plans?

Cuddyer
Werth
Soriano
Crisp

I could use any of them. Soriano is ranked higher but I'd probably play a little game of chicken with him figuring if I don't get him Ill be OK. Cuddyer is next and I like the dual eligibility. Crisp and Soriano are a little lower.

Guys like this generally fall below where I have them ranked (Beltran and Hunter as well). I'll usually end up with one (or two).

[ToddZ]

Do you feel like a slave to your projections during drafts?

Let me give a little basis for this question. 'Experts' get a bad rap. And I know it is the publishers or site heads that refer to writers as experts, not themselves. You are one of the few that make projections and play with the big boys and I think everybody in the NFBC respects the hell out of that.

At the same time, each draft takes on its own dimension. I know that you are just not going to go down your projections lists to make your selections. You'll let the projections AND the draft determine your selection.
At the same time, a draft makes us sometimes do things we don't want to do. For instance, if you've covered batting average, speed, and are completely satisfied with your pitching staff, power becomes a must.
In round 19, most power is lost. A corner is needed and Adam Dunn would provide 'instant' power, but like others, you don't particularly care for the baggage that comes with owning Dunn.

This isn't a Dunn or somebody else question though. This is a, do you feel like taking a shower for even considering a guy like Dunn?
Do you stick to your guns with your projections on a 98% basis or will you fall prey to adp from time to time?

Your answer doesn't have to be as long as this long-winded question....

Here's the key. A projection is a weighted average of a series of plausible outcomes. You're not drafting 20-85-80-15-.278. You're drafting the downside risk and upside reward. In some cases those numbers assume some missed playing time that can be backfilled by another player.

This is the main reason I know longer favor target drafting. My new concept is drafting towards an expectation for each pick. Each pick has an expectation based on history. My goal is to select a player that has a plausible path to meet or exceed the expectation of each pick. If I do that, I should reach any arbitrary targets I may have set.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Cuddyer is next and I like the dual eligibility.

Just a footnote, Cuddyer does not have dual eligibility with the NFBC...

[ToddZ]

Cuddyer is next and I like the dual eligibility.

Just a footnote, Cuddyer does not have dual eligibility with the NFBC...

The technical term for that is oopsie.

[Deadheadz]

Cuddyer is next and I like the dual eligibility.

How long do you expect it will take for him to gain dual elig in 2014? After playing only 15 games at 1B last year, I wouldn't count on using him anywhere except OF/DH this year unless you're hearing they plan to use him at 1B primarily. Is it that you expect Morneau to be missing time early on and Cuddyer will get 10 gp fairly soon?

[ToddZ]

Cuddyer is next and I like the dual eligibility.

How long do you expect it will take for him to gain dual elig in 2014? After playing only 15 games at 1B last year, I wouldn't count on using him anywhere except OF/DH this year unless you're hearing they plan to use him at 1B primarily. Is it that you expect Morneau to be missing time early on and Cuddyer will get 10 gp fairly soon?

As the previous post suggests, it was a mistake on my part.

[bjoak]

Hey Todd,

Enjoyed the thread. I have a couple for you:

1. When you want to judge whether a pitcher breakout/comeback is real (say Anibal Sanchez or Scott Kazmir) what numbers are you most interested in? Basic K/9/BB/9, swinging strike %, velocity, spin deflection, etc. Of course, I'm referring to a breakout in peripheral stats, not ERA or wins.

2. Has your performance improved since you stopped target drafting (in no trade leagues)? I'd be remiss if I didn't add that I don't already know the answer here.

3. Do you have any indication on why some pitchers annually get killed in homers above and beyond groundball/K rate? My most recent theory that I've sent packing was a disconnect between control and command, i.e. guys who just aim for the middle every time. I'm just listening to myself; take a crack, sir.

[bjoak]

One more: adding to a previous question, you have a great deal of experience talking to NFBC players and now publishing them. Are you finding any commonalities in how many of them find success? Feel free to elaborate.

[ToddZ]

Hey Todd,

Enjoyed the thread. I have a couple for you:

1. When you want to judge whether a pitcher breakout/comeback is real (say Anibal Sanchez or Scott Kazmir) what numbers are you most interested in? Basic K/9/BB/9, swinging strike %, velocity, spin deflection, etc. Of course, I'm referring to a breakout in peripheral stats, not ERA or wins.

First thing is to check the luck elements - BABIP, HR/FB, LOB%, xERA (I look at them all and don't favor one over the other).

If the surface stats are backed by the peripherals, then the breakout has to be considered real. So now the question for me is it sustainable? Something had to improve so I'll identify what improved. Then I like to look at the distribution of pitches and velocity. This could be the cause but not necessarily the effect. The effect is usually in swinging strike % (in and out of the zone). There's really no single or even couple of metrics -- I look for the cause then the effect and see if it makes sense their are any contradictions. A contradiction is a form of bad luck. Or if something improves without a tangible reason, I am reticent to buy that it continues. I need to get better at using BrooksBaseball, there's only so much time in the day. The other thing I look at is skills from the windup (no one one) versus stretch (man on 1st or 1st and 2nd) since I'm convinced a pitcher is really two guys -- wind up guy and stretch guy with different skills in each. Lucky wind-up guy may lead to less of a need for stretch guy (artificially better results) while unlucky wind up guy may mean more of stretch guy (artificially worse results).

2. Has your performance improved since you stopped target drafting (in no trade leagues)? I'd be remiss if I didn't add that I don't already know the answer here.

Incrementally but I still haven't cracked the draft code. But I'm working on it....

3. Do you have any indication on why some pitchers annually get killed in homers above and beyond groundball/K rate? My most recent theory that I've sent packing was a disconnect between control and command, i.e. guys who just aim for the middle every time. I'm just listening to myself; take a crack, sir.

Sometimes we try too hard to explain things that are just dumb-ass luck. Matt Cain exhibited the ability to defy the odds and maintain a low HR/FB -- until he didn't. Sometimes regression occurs quickly (hello Jeff Locke) sometimes it takes a while, perhaps even multiple seasons. What's so special about 162 games that forces luck to neutralize?

With that said, it's stretch guy versus wind-up guy (only partially tongue in cheek)

[ToddZ]

One more: adding to a previous question, you have a great deal of experience talking to NFBC players and now publishing them. Are you finding any commonalities in how many of them find success? Feel free to elaborate.

Blood, sweat and tears. Pure and simply, they out-prepare the competition. I think the best players have the ability to assimilate the available information then personalize it to their own philosophy and strength.

Some rely too much on outside sources.

Some "think on their own" but don't realize there is research out there that contradicts their thinking.

Then some spend so much time helping others prepare assuming they are helping themselves by diffusion but they really aren't.

[bjoak]

One more: adding to a previous question, you have a great deal of experience talking to NFBC players and now publishing them. Are you finding any commonalities in how many of them find success? Feel free to elaborate.

Blood, sweat and tears. Pure and simply, they out-prepare the competition. I think the best players have the ability to assimilate the available information then personalize it to their own philosophy and strength.

Some rely too much on outside sources.

Some "think on their own" but don't realize there is research out there that contradicts their thinking.

Then some spend so much time helping others prepare assuming they are helping themselves by diffusion but they really aren't.

Great answer. You know, I like the bit about relying too much on outside sources. There is a ton of information before the draft followed by a dearth in season. And what is out there is not quite good. I guess I would say my draft tools are as good as my in-season decision making tools. Sites offer a lot more opinions in-season than tools. And it's hard to apply opinion to your personal team and situation. If you can't do it yourself, you're at the mercy of other people who are trying to run your team without seeing it.

[Rainiers]

Todd,

I missed the "live" portion of the chat, but I sure did enjoy reading your insightful answers on this thread.

Thanks for taking the time to do this, it is appreciated.

Robert

[Edwards Kings]

Todd,

How would you rank these guys? Assuming they all break camp in their respective rotations, do you see a realistic chance for any to have above replacement level impact?

Josh Beckett
Colby Lewis
Brandon Beachy
Jamie Garcia
Michael Pineda

And yes, the Pineda and Garcia blurbs today got me thinking of this "class" of starter.

[ToddZ]

Todd,

How would you rank these guys? Assuming they all break camp in their respective rotations, do you see a realistic chance for any to have above replacement level impact?

Josh Beckett
Colby Lewis
Brandon Beachy
Jamie Garcia
Michael Pineda

And yes, the Pineda and Garcia blubs today got me thinking of this "class" of starter.

The only guy that even remotely interests me is Beachy. There's just too much pitching with less risk that to take a shot with the group -- the upside reward just isn't there