Who is most likely to regress?

SluggoJD · Post by **SluggoJD** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 2:19 pm

Can we have 2 picks?

My first guess is Magglio Ordonez. He was way over his head IMO this year.

Otherwise, Eric Byrnes.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 2:27 pm

Originally posted by SluggoJD:

Can we have 2 picks?

My first guess is Magglio Ordonez. He was way over his head IMO this year.

Otherwise, Eric Byrnes. You can have two picks. Someone here today has it right, I'll give that much away. Now enjoy deciding which one it is before I can get the data from Ron that they discussed in Arizona. I'll post that tomorrow when I get it.

Again, I'm not saying he is going to be a bust. I'll just provide a couple of interesting statistics that should be associated with this guy.

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 3:27 pm

i'll say rick ankiel

Hard Heads · Post by **Hard Heads** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 4:26 pm

I would also go with Chris Young-ARI

slopshot · Post by **slopshot** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 5:01 pm

I'll say Carlos Pena

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:17 pm

I'll say for every Shandler "hit"...there are 8 misses...so it's akin to throwing darts at a wall of names.

One day they will either...

A) Win big money putting their numbers crunching to work.

B) Understand that human performance both mental and physical is highly complicated and unpredictable to any creditable degree.

C) Make their "big" money by influencing you to believe they have an edge worth paying for and generate income that way...very similar to the touts for sports betting...it's all a big facade.

(Oh...I'm sorry...C is what they do!)

~Lance

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 7:34 pm

The Chris Young pick is just amusing. Picked by 10 people on here and not a shred of evidence given. What do you think, his batting average was inflated?

DiamondKing · Post by **DiamondKing** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 11:21 pm

I will take Eric Byrnes for 1000 Alex.

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 1:00 am

Bjoak, I was waiting for Eli to crunch the numbers on Chris Young, but this is what I see as reasons that could include him here. The first trick is "eye-gawking numbers". I think 32 homers and 27 stolen bases suffice, despite his putrid BA, as I think this tops most people's production prediction. Also, "could wind up back in the minors", has the search looking for those with limited MLB service time. That being said many of his peripherals are poor. A 4:1 K:BB ratio, an OBP of under .300 (.295). In addition if you look at his hit chart everything is pulled, ecspecially the extra base hits. All 14 of his homers at Chase field went to Leftfield. Any hitter improves dramatically when they figure out how to hit to the opposite field gap. I think there is a weakness away in the strikezone that very well may get exploited (even more) in 2008.

So there is a little bit behind the Young selection, although I am not sure if your argument was that his numbers were not "eye-gawking" to begin with, because of his batting average. In any event, I certainly think he fits in this thread.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 2:21 am

Originally posted by EliGrimmett:

I change my answer.

Jack Cust - 26 HR, 61 R, 82 RBI in 124 G

One of the highest K% in the league with one of the highest HR/F% in the league while somehow maintaining the lowest FB% of anyone with more than 21 HR.

Okay, that's my last guess. Give the prize to Eli. Now again, I'm not saying that Jack Cust will be a bust this year, but the panel of experts went out of their way to highlight him as the biggest potential bust of 2008. Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus even said that his indicators point to a return to the minor leagues this year. Here are those indicators from the Baseball Forecaster and BaseballHQ.com:

** One out of every 3 of Cust's fly balls were home runs last year, a percentage that is unsustainable as the league average is closer to 1 out of 10.

** His balls in play average (BABIP) was over .350, about 100 points over his career average. That means that for every three balls Cust was able to put in play, one went for a hit, which is mighty fortunate. Even with that huge benefit, he still only managed a .256 BA.

** He also had a 58% contact rate (league average is about 82%) which correlates to a batting average under .200.

All these indicators point to a massive statistical collapse, according to BaseballHQ.com.

I thought the FB/HR percentage was interesting, the BABIP was even more interesting and obviously the contact rate underscores his league-high 164 Ks in only 124 games. It will be interesting to see how high he goes on Draft Day and what he produces in 2008.

I'm not trying to deflate his value, just having some off-season conversations. Do you think Cust can re-produce another season like 2007? Why or why not?

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 2:58 am

Mr. Jack Cust, Greg has it in for you. After the pain you caused him in 2007, he wants to see you back in the minors. But if he DH's for 7 games and plays the outfield for 7 games, then gets sent down, and plays outfield exclusively in the minors, where will he qualify at?

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 3:45 am

Originally posted by Joe Sambito:

Mr. Jack Cust, Greg has it in for you. After the pain you caused him in 2007, he wants to see you back in the minors. But if he DH's for 7 games and plays the outfield for 7 games, then gets sent down, and plays outfield exclusively in the minors, where will he qualify at?

oh man not again... someone please send Greg lawyers guns and money.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 3:47 am

Originally posted by Joe Sambito:

Mr. Jack Cust, Greg has it in for you. After the pain you caused him in 2007, he wants to see you back in the minors. But if he DH's for 7 games and plays the outfield for 7 games, then gets sent down, and plays outfield exclusively in the minors, where will he qualify at? Good one. Sheesh, I almost forgot about that episode!!!

I guess I do have it out for him!!!

Actually, I find the numbers cited as very interesting. As many would say, it's hard to be lucky for four months as balls in play seem to continually elude defenders and just about every fly ball you hit clears the wall. So give Cust credit for making it happen. But that combination of balls in play and his huge strikeout rate sure points to an even lower batting average this year, right?

I'm a content guy first and I'm starting to do the rankings and reviews for our first issue of Fantasy Sports Magazine, so I thought I'd have some fun with this one.

Next up, who does everything think will be the breakout candidate for 2008??

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 3:51 am

Here's what Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospect wrote:

"His performance is almost completely unsustainable. Cust strikes out far too often -- just shy of once every three plate appearances -- to support even last year's .256 batting average. His batting average on contact was a ridiculous .437 in 2007, a mark that is one of the top 20 posted since 1960. Prior to '07, Cust's career mark here was .376, a typical figure for a low-contact slugger. If paired with the rest of his line, that mark would leave him as approximately Rob Deer-flavored .220/.350/.460 hitter, with negative defensive value or a DH job. One other negative: Cust was actually a groundball hitter in 2007, with a G/F of 1.3."

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 3:53 am

Interesting stat: 26 of the 75 fly balls he hit in 2007 went for home runs. Now that's efficiency. He needs to hit more fly balls in 2008!!

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 3:54 am

Okay, moving onto the next discussion: Who did the panelists say was the top rookie prospect for 2008? I'll take a day of answers with explanations and then give the answer tomorrow. Good luck all.

EliGrimmett · Post by **EliGrimmett** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 4:02 am

I didn't give my reasons on Young because they weren't as compelling as Cust's. That's also why I changed my answer after I actually looked at the numbers.

Greg, what do I win?

Free entry??? Haha. Just kidding...unless you're gonna do it...

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 4:23 am

Originally posted by Joe Sambito:

Bjoak, I was waiting for Eli to crunch the numbers on Chris Young, but this is what I see as reasons that could include him here. The first trick is "eye-gawking numbers". I think 32 homers and 27 stolen bases suffice, despite his putrid BA, as I think this tops most people's production prediction. Also, "could wind up back in the minors", has the search looking for those with limited MLB service time. That being said many of his peripherals are poor. A 4:1 K:BB ratio, an OBP of under .300 (.295). In addition if you look at his hit chart everything is pulled, ecspecially the extra base hits. All 14 of his homers at Chase field went to Leftfield. Any hitter improves dramatically when they figure out how to hit to the opposite field gap. I think there is a weakness away in the strikezone that very well may get exploited (even more) in 2008.

So there is a little bit behind the Young selection, although I am not sure if your argument was that his numbers were not "eye-gawking" to begin with, because of his batting average. In any event, I certainly think he fits in this thread. No offense, man. I didn't even realize you were one of the guys pimping him. Yeah, I think when you do a good job of giving evidence like this it is fine to pick him. For those who just throw it out there, it seems like the reason is "I don't like sophomores" which seems like something a five-year-old would say.

Personally, I think Young underperformed a little in BA and a little over in some of the other cats, but his numbers are fully sustainable based on his minor league numbers.

As for Cust, I'm not convinced he will have a full time job next year, when you consider that the season doesn't start tomorrow so that part of it was misleading.

Sheep · Post by **Sheep** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 4:29 am

2008 ROY - Evan Longoria

He will be part of a young solid lineup, thus not the pressure to carry any major load, but should have decent RBI opportunities.

Thirdbase is held by Iwanura, who lacks the pop expected from an AL thirdbagger. Secondbase is open for him to clear the spot for Longoria.

His 2007 minor numbers .299 .412 .520 .922 are very solid. He still strikes out too much (20%), but after 20:1 K:BB to end 2006 at AA, he improved to 1.5 to 1 in 2007.

[ November 07, 2007, 10:35 AM: Message edited by: Sheep ]

Hard Heads · Post by **Hard Heads** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 5:05 am

Until they signed Baker as manager I may have said Votto, but let's play it safe with Maybin.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 5:13 am

B) Understand that human performance both mental and physical is highly complicated and unpredictable to any creditable degree.

Actually, one of the panel discussions dealt with this very topic.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 5:41 am

Originally posted by ToddZ:

quote: B) Understand that human performance both mental and physical is highly complicated and unpredictable to any creditable degree.

Actually, one of the panel discussions dealt with this very topic. [/QUOTE]Let me guess, Andy said that.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 11:08 am

About Cust starting next year, iwould say he will start.He's showing some major power and he need's to keep the flyout swing , it will bring more homer's.Cust also has a great eye , he walked 105 times last year , i think manager's [some] look at on base per more importantly then Bavg.Cust had a 408 on base per and thats just as big as his homers.

For example here is three of the top 15 fantasy pick's next year, OBP

Reyes OBP 354

Rollins OBP 344

Beltran OBP 353

This will be another reason he starts , he gets on base.

Just my opinion.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 11:59 am

Think of Jack Cust as a poor man's Adam Dunn.

He'll look pretty good to a team that is needing power in the middle rounds. If I remember right, since the season seems so long ago now, those home runs Cust hit weren't fly balls, they were bombs.

poopy tooth · Post by **poopy tooth** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 12:10 pm

quote:

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Originally posted by poopy tooth:

Gekko - 1st round flop for 2008 has to be my favorite player - Vladimir Guerrero.

Back and arm injuries - even if they get ARod, Vladdy is too much of a 1st round risk IMHO.

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Go draft Vladi this cat hated Utley and Hanley Ramirez in 07-

Half true Chest. While I do admit, I was way off on Hanley Ramirez - having him ranked in the 90's somewhere, I didn't hate Utley. I did campaign strongly against him being a 1st round pick. I had him mid 2nd round.

As for Guerrero, I'd like to see him remain top 10-15 talent-wise, but I just don't see it in my opinion.

I know my record has been horrible, and Guerrero is my favorite player, but to me, he's going to have some drop off. I hope with him, I am wrong.

As for Ramirez - yes, top 5 pick!