Originally posted by sportsbettingman:
Greg...
If you were in the NFBC main event...and had just found out your draft slot for 2008...what advantage do you think you could derive from "mock drafting" that spot with 14 goldfish or 14 auto picks?
How about 14 ten year olds? 14 local bar league drafters? How about 14 other people from MDC that clicked on the "NFBC rules mock" (even though they may not even know what that is.)
In other words...putting much weight into mock drafting seems like an exercise in futility to me. The best drafters will be prepared for any surprise that comes their way...and just because they mocked 30 times doesn't mean those 14 REAL LIVE High stakes opponents in the main will draft anything like they've seen on a free mock.
I don't have to mock 20 times to imagine how it may go. Not to mention even ONE injury to a bigger player within a week of the draft could shake the crap out of things.
I'm more of a chaos theory type...one altered variable can produce entirely different results. So being prepared via multiple starting routes without mocking (should THIS player fall to me...I'll lean THIS way...but should THAT player fall, I'll lean THAT was...etc.) seems to be of equal value...without ever tipping your hand in a mock.
~Lance If I knew my draft spot right now, I wouldn't spend all day mock drafting, but I'd definitely take every ADP and magazine Cheat Sheet I could find and then start slicing each round apart to see what kind of team I could build. I'd figure out which of my breakout stars I'd have to take a round early and which veterans I think I could get later than expected. I'd slice and dice those ADPs inside out so that when Draft Day arrived I'd pretty much know who I should be getting in each round.
I know Tom and I did that for the WCOFF and of course everything changed with our first pick!!
But once you have your pick you pretty much know where guys are going to fall and it's up to you to go above the ADP's to get the guys you want.
