Todd Zola Live Chat: Wednesday 7 P.M. EST

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 04, 2009 12:12 pm

Originally posted by rucrew2:

Todd,

Maybe not identical comparisions , but....

Will there be any Cliff Lee's out there this year?

Verlander?

Harang?

Carmona? There will be a Cliff Lee this year, but damned if I know who it is. Not sure if you are asking if any of that troika will be 2009's Cliff Lee (dang, I just used my least favorite expression

) but of the three, I favor Harang then Verlander then Carmona, but at what they will cost, will likely only own Harang.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 04, 2009 12:14 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

better chance of getting 100 rbi: E.Encarnacion or M.Jacobs Really don't like either's chances, but better would be EE -- better lineup and park.

NorCalAtlFan · Post by **NorCalAtlFan** » Wed Feb 04, 2009 12:14 pm

Milledge or Dukes? Who has the better season?

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 04, 2009 12:21 pm

Originally posted by Sack:

In the Shandler Forecaster, I assume that the R$ column from last season represents a 5x5 price.

If I picked up the book, without that dollar figure filled in, what is the math process required to come up with the R$ figure printed in the book? Example Albert Pujols 2008 R$ = 37

ba: .350 r: 100 hr:37 rbi: 116 sb: 7

524/187

I've had no problems calculating future value, but would like to do the homework a tad earlier next year.

Thanks - Cya in NYC, but stay out of my League this year in Vegas!

There are NUMEROUS methods, I have a 20-page tutorial outlining the method I use, but here is the Cliff Notes version of the Cliff Notes version.

I give value based on the percentage of useful stats each player contributes to the draft-worthy pool in each category. Each category is assigned a dollar amount based on the number of teams in the league, the salary cap and the categories, plus a consideration of what is generally spent on pitching versus hitting.

The draft worthy pool is those players with values $1 and above.

Useful stats being those more than you can get for free. It's like fantasy football -- kickers are almost equal in value because they all get 100 points, you only care about the points over 100. If the worst reserve OF gives you about 10 HR, I don't want to give value to the first 10 HR an OF gets, as everyone else has that too.

It is more complicated than this, if anyone is seriously interested in learning more, PM me and I will hook you up with some reading material

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 04, 2009 12:24 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

Better late round pitching gem for 2009: Tommy Hanson or Gio Gonzalez? Hanson has the name and the hype from the AFL, but Gio has the better opportunity. Gonzalez needs to hone his control, we have seen guys like Volquez pull it off, he is my call for 2009.

Long term? Hanson, no question. Lightning in a bottle for this season? Gio.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 04, 2009 12:28 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

quote:Originally posted by ToddZ:

Based on the early ADPs, the two names that stick out to me are Evan Longoria and Dustin Pedroia. why is pedroia a reach? [/QUOTE]Need to see a repeat of the power and speed. His strength is batting average and with some bad luck, that could falter as well. I just see too much reach over more stable players with a deep, albeit weal 2b pool to choose from later. A TON of players qualify at 2B.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 04, 2009 12:29 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

what round would you consider wieters in?

2-3 rounds after he is drafted

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Wed Feb 04, 2009 12:29 pm

Todd, how do you rank The Big 5? How big is the falloff from 5 to 6?

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 04, 2009 12:32 pm

Originally posted by RoundTrippers:

mr zola.....how are you my friend?? glad to have you aboard!!! you mentioned a couple of weeks ago you may have some insight as to how the 2 new ny stadiums may play, hiiters vs pichers vs. nuetral can you tell me at this moment what your thoughts are?? also, will you be blessing us with your presence in york pa this weekend?? thank you RT hey RT--

I did the parks article for the next Krause publication. In a nutshell, with the wind effects still to be determined, Yankee Stadium is designed almost exactly like the old one. Citi Field, however could be interesting and it may take some time to get a grasp of how it plays. Right field is very quirky. Overall, the park is bigger than Shea but with less foul territory, BUT it is basically enclosed so the key will be the wind.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 04, 2009 12:35 pm

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Ginger or Mary Ann? Mary Ann in a landslide. But for some reason, I always seem to like "Avis" over "Hertz".

Janet over Crissy

Kate over Farrah.

Jan Smithers over Loni Anderson

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 04, 2009 12:36 pm

Originally posted by NorCalAtlFan:

Milledge or Dukes? Who has the better season? Milledge -- more speed, less injury risk, less wacko-risk

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Wed Feb 04, 2009 12:39 pm

Originally posted by ToddZ:

Overall, the park is bigger than Shea CitiField is DEFINITELY bigger than Shea

[ February 04, 2009, 06:40 PM: Message edited by: King of Queens ]

NorCalAtlFan · Post by **NorCalAtlFan** » Wed Feb 04, 2009 12:40 pm

Dukes vs Carl Everett in a wacko contest?

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 04, 2009 12:46 pm

Originally posted by King of Queens:

Todd, how do you rank The Big 5? How big is the falloff from 5 to 6? Hanley, Reyes, Wright, ARod, Pujols

Let me explain

At present, I am tempering ARod's and Pujol's AB, which brings down their counting stats. It is not a matter of performance, but playing time. ARod is getting older and I don't think you can assume 155+ games, even though last season was the first he failed to reach that level. I have him at 566 AB, last season was 510, before that 583 and 572. Pujols had the elbow surgery and is likely to get more AB from me in the spring once I see him in action. I have him at 533 now.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 04, 2009 12:49 pm

Sorry, missed the fall-off part --

Right now, not very much as I am very high on Braun and Sizemore as will as Cabrera. All three are still in the growth phase and have enough of a history to back up the high expectations, unlike Longoria, and dare I say it, Josh Hamilton.

Navel Lint · Post by **Navel Lint** » Wed Feb 04, 2009 12:57 pm

In early drafts like some of the ones going on now, how much weight, if any, do you put on a players value if they are still unsigned. (Manny, Dunn, etc.)?

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 04, 2009 1:00 pm

Originally posted by rucrew2:

In early drafts like some of the ones going on now, how much weight, if any, do you put on a players value if they are still unsigned. (Manny, Dunn, etc.)? Manny and Dunn not so much, Abreu perhaps a bit more as his skill set is a bit more team-dependent.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Wed Feb 04, 2009 1:03 pm

thanks for the chat todd. good luck on the website!

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 04, 2009 1:05 pm

Thanks gang, gotta run.

I enjoyed it as always.

If you are attending a First Pitch Forum, please say hello.

I look forward to seeing some of you in Vegas.

I'll pop back when I can to see if there are any straggling questions, otherwise, I am not too hard to find

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Thu Feb 05, 2009 12:49 am

Snake well done yourself ,im happy you took the high road here.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Feb 05, 2009 2:44 am

Thanks Todd for the live chat last night. Folks can still post questions on this thread at anytime for Todd as he checks in here regularly. Thanks again and we'll line up at least two more live chats next week and 1-2 each week after that before Draft Day. Good luck all.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Thu Feb 05, 2009 3:38 am

Originally posted by SNAKE:

hey Todd - think that you missed this one the first time around...thanks much...

1) what are some of the pitfalls that newcomers to this game should try to avoid?...

2) do you think that a couple of months of intense daily study will be sufficient to compete with the deadly mongooses here?...

3) does it help newcomers make the crossover to this game if they are experienced and successful Fantasy Footballers?...

4) what one sole piece of advice would you give a newcomer to this game in order to help them succeed?...

...SNAKE 1) Assuming they can get by on just pure knowledge of baseball as due to the nature of the way the game is scored, rotisserie-style, there economic aspects, accounting aspects and logical aspects that go into the overall strategy. I don't really like using these analogies, but some say fantasy football is like checkers and fantasy baseball like chess. I prefer something like fantasy football is like pinochle and fantasy baseball like bridge as that at least includes an element of luck associated with playing cards.

2) A couple of months of daily study will do nothing against the skilled, experienced competitors in the NFBC -- NOTHING. Seriously, NOTHING. No agenda here, being completely up front, N O T H I N G.

3) Yes, it helps in that you have to look at the relative contributions of players in terms of the positions they play and that is also true in football, as well as accessing risk to the players. As an example, even though in terms of raw points, a kicker scores more points than other fantasy positions, you take one very late as the help to you team is minimal as every kicker gets 100 points and it is unpredictable which will get 140, 130, 120 etc. That same principle needs to be applied to baseball, except it is 100x as complicated as you are not comparing "POINTS", you are comparing value across 5 scoring categories that is not converted to a single number, like points. Then consider you have a pitching pool and a hitting pool and within each pool SB and saves which require additional strategy. So KNOWING you have to compare players relative to their position is important, but KNOWING HOW to do it is a completely different story. In football, you need to get the most points. In baseball, you need to balance hitting versus pitching, speed versus power, strikeouts versus saves, etc.

4. Get your feet wet in a league that uses fantasy points and not rotisserie scoring, as that makes the game a little more like fantasy football. There are leagues that award you points per "statistic". A single is worth 1 pt, a double worth 2 etc, a SB worth 2, a RBI worth a point, etc -- with something similar for pitching. At least now, all you are comparing is the single "FANTASY POINTS" statistic, like you do in football.

GYOZTES · Post by **GYOZTES** » Thu Feb 05, 2009 3:46 am

1. Am I interpeting your statement to say that someone who is new to the NFBC has no chance?

2. How is accounting related to fantasy baseball?