Hey Z, for my records, can I just know what your overall finishes were in those years in which you drafted good teams and competed? Thanks. Try writing the answer down when you ask this every year.
The Winning Baseball HQ Team!
The Winning Baseball HQ Team!
Originally posted by bjoak:
Hey Z, for my records, can I just know what your overall finishes were in those years in which you drafted good teams and competed? Thanks. Try writing the answer down when you ask this every year.
Hey Z, for my records, can I just know what your overall finishes were in those years in which you drafted good teams and competed? Thanks. Try writing the answer down when you ask this every year.
The Winning Baseball HQ Team!
Originally posted by bjoak:
quote:BTW what was thinking on Sonnanstine, if you dont mind a question.This is a good question, particularly because if you want a frontline starter that will show up later in the year (from the same team, no less) why not pick up Hellickson there? [/QUOTE]Because Hellickson has no experience and no track record. I already have one of those on my team (Strasburg). Sonnanstine has experience, had very solid peripherals just a few years ago and a good spring. Although he barely lost out on a rotation spot, he will be prime trade bait if his spring success carries over into the season.
Remember that there are two types of pitchers in baseball: those that are hurt, and those that are not hurt... yet. There will always be a market, and a job waiting, for a healthy arm.
Of my current starting rotation, the only pitcher with more than 38 days on the DL over the past three years is Harang (73, but 45 of those were for an appendectomy). Wandy (38) and Kennedy (26) are the only other starters with ANY DL time since 2007.
So I would bet money that AT LEAST two of Sonnanstine, Medlen, Vandenhurk and Carrasco will be members of a rotation somewhere by well before the All Star Break. Perhaps all four by season's end.
That guy at the top of your rotation right now (whoever you are, reading this)? 50% chance he ends up on the DL this year. Fact. I'd rather have educated speculations already on reserve than have to take a chance in the free agent pool.
[ March 31, 2010, 08:45 PM: Message edited by: RON@HQ ]
quote:BTW what was thinking on Sonnanstine, if you dont mind a question.This is a good question, particularly because if you want a frontline starter that will show up later in the year (from the same team, no less) why not pick up Hellickson there? [/QUOTE]Because Hellickson has no experience and no track record. I already have one of those on my team (Strasburg). Sonnanstine has experience, had very solid peripherals just a few years ago and a good spring. Although he barely lost out on a rotation spot, he will be prime trade bait if his spring success carries over into the season.
Remember that there are two types of pitchers in baseball: those that are hurt, and those that are not hurt... yet. There will always be a market, and a job waiting, for a healthy arm.
Of my current starting rotation, the only pitcher with more than 38 days on the DL over the past three years is Harang (73, but 45 of those were for an appendectomy). Wandy (38) and Kennedy (26) are the only other starters with ANY DL time since 2007.
So I would bet money that AT LEAST two of Sonnanstine, Medlen, Vandenhurk and Carrasco will be members of a rotation somewhere by well before the All Star Break. Perhaps all four by season's end.
That guy at the top of your rotation right now (whoever you are, reading this)? 50% chance he ends up on the DL this year. Fact. I'd rather have educated speculations already on reserve than have to take a chance in the free agent pool.
[ March 31, 2010, 08:45 PM: Message edited by: RON@HQ ]
-
NorCalAtlFan
- Posts: 1258
- Joined: Tue Jan 29, 2008 6:00 pm
- Contact:
The Winning Baseball HQ Team!
Ron coming strong!!
Good luck this year. Your team will be one of the more heavily scrutinized teams, but if this is any indication, you seem ready to rumble.
Good luck this year. Your team will be one of the more heavily scrutinized teams, but if this is any indication, you seem ready to rumble.
The Winning Baseball HQ Team!
Thanks for answering the question. I think that there are some basic flaws to your reasoning from a logic standpoint, but I think I understand the premise.
schwanks.blogspot.com
Little Bits mostly non-related to fantasy sports...alright maybe a little
Little Bits mostly non-related to fantasy sports...alright maybe a little
The Winning Baseball HQ Team!
Originally posted by RON@HQ:
My point remains... these 30 are just a place to start. I'd bet even money that neither Wandy nor Anderson end up to be my stud. I'd also bet even money that whoever DOES end up anchoring my rotation will do better than than the "legitimate" staff anchors on at least half of the other teams in my league.
Last year, we would have been crowing about how lucky we were that we were able to roster Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, Johan Santana, Roy Oswalt, etc. And sitting here now, I'm not so upset to pass on the huge 2009 workloads of Lincecum, Verlander, Wainwright, etc.
Just saying... you can analyze Wandy all you want (and granted, his workload was a bit excessive last year too), but to pass judgment that my pitching is weak, well, frankly, EVERYONE'S pitching is weak right now. Ron,
This is Chris, we met in the Sheraton having breakfast if you may remember. It was nice to meet you in person, and apologies if on the boards some of us come across poorly as you were quite a gentleman. Anyway, I checked out the team, how do you think it compares to my draft?
Starters
C Ramon Hernandez CIN
C John Buck TOR
1B Todd Helton COL
2B Brandon Phillips CIN
3B Scott Rolen (or Garret Atkins)
SS Jimmy Rollins PHI
MI Casey McGehee MLW
CI Troy Glaus ATL
OF Matt Kemp LAD
OF Shin-Soo Choo CLE
OF Carlos Lee HOU
OF Alex Rios CWS
OF Nate McLouth ATL
UT Corey Hart MLW
P Dan Haren ARZ
P Yovani Gallardo MLW
P John Lackey BOS NYY
P Jair Jurrjens ATL
P Francisco Liriano MIN
P J.A. Happ PHI
P Colby Lewis TEX
P Bench Andrew Bailey OAK
P Bench Octavio Dotel PIT
Bench
3B Garrett Atkins BAL (or Scott Rolan)
P Gio Gonzalez OAK
1B Chris Carter OAK
P Chris Tillman BAL
P Jeremy Hellickson TB
C Carlos Santana CLE
OF Nate Schierholtz SF (30th Round!)
Chris aka Spyhunter
[ March 31, 2010, 10:16 PM: Message edited by: Spyhunter ]
My point remains... these 30 are just a place to start. I'd bet even money that neither Wandy nor Anderson end up to be my stud. I'd also bet even money that whoever DOES end up anchoring my rotation will do better than than the "legitimate" staff anchors on at least half of the other teams in my league.
Last year, we would have been crowing about how lucky we were that we were able to roster Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, Johan Santana, Roy Oswalt, etc. And sitting here now, I'm not so upset to pass on the huge 2009 workloads of Lincecum, Verlander, Wainwright, etc.
Just saying... you can analyze Wandy all you want (and granted, his workload was a bit excessive last year too), but to pass judgment that my pitching is weak, well, frankly, EVERYONE'S pitching is weak right now. Ron,
This is Chris, we met in the Sheraton having breakfast if you may remember. It was nice to meet you in person, and apologies if on the boards some of us come across poorly as you were quite a gentleman. Anyway, I checked out the team, how do you think it compares to my draft?
Starters
C Ramon Hernandez CIN
C John Buck TOR
1B Todd Helton COL
2B Brandon Phillips CIN
3B Scott Rolen (or Garret Atkins)
SS Jimmy Rollins PHI
MI Casey McGehee MLW
CI Troy Glaus ATL
OF Matt Kemp LAD
OF Shin-Soo Choo CLE
OF Carlos Lee HOU
OF Alex Rios CWS
OF Nate McLouth ATL
UT Corey Hart MLW
P Dan Haren ARZ
P Yovani Gallardo MLW
P John Lackey BOS NYY
P Jair Jurrjens ATL
P Francisco Liriano MIN
P J.A. Happ PHI
P Colby Lewis TEX
P Bench Andrew Bailey OAK
P Bench Octavio Dotel PIT
Bench
3B Garrett Atkins BAL (or Scott Rolan)
P Gio Gonzalez OAK
1B Chris Carter OAK
P Chris Tillman BAL
P Jeremy Hellickson TB
C Carlos Santana CLE
OF Nate Schierholtz SF (30th Round!)
Chris aka Spyhunter
[ March 31, 2010, 10:16 PM: Message edited by: Spyhunter ]
-
Johnny Archive
- Posts: 5
- Joined: Fri Apr 03, 2009 6:00 pm
- Contact:
The Winning Baseball HQ Team!
What I noticed when I examined the team is the lack of "sexy" players (only 1, Strasburg). This year we have several "good pick" comment bringers; CarGo, Sean-Rod, Nef Feliz, J.Borbon, Stra-man, Mauer, Chapman, Montero and of course Heyward.
I guess I'm not surprised by that, considering Shandler's style and approach to fantasy baseball. Matter of fact, this "vanilla" roster is the type that half way thru the season is sitting near the top of the standings and you can't figure out why?
By the way, my concern with Wandy this year was him losing arbitration (he got $2 million less than he wanted). Sure, he said all the right things afterward, but it seemed to sap some of that energy he had as "the next ace of the staff" vibe.
-JA
I guess I'm not surprised by that, considering Shandler's style and approach to fantasy baseball. Matter of fact, this "vanilla" roster is the type that half way thru the season is sitting near the top of the standings and you can't figure out why?
By the way, my concern with Wandy this year was him losing arbitration (he got $2 million less than he wanted). Sure, he said all the right things afterward, but it seemed to sap some of that energy he had as "the next ace of the staff" vibe.
-JA
The Winning Baseball HQ Team!
Originally posted by RON@HQ:
quote:Originally posted by bjoak:
quote:BTW what was thinking on Sonnanstine, if you dont mind a question.This is a good question, particularly because if you want a frontline starter that will show up later in the year (from the same team, no less) why not pick up Hellickson there? [/QUOTE]Because Hellickson has no experience and no track record. I already have one of those on my team (Strasburg). Sonnanstine has experience, had very solid peripherals just a few years ago and a good spring. Although he barely lost out on a rotation spot, he will be prime trade bait if his spring success carries over into the season.
Remember that there are two types of pitchers in baseball: those that are hurt, and those that are not hurt... yet. There will always be a market, and a job waiting, for a healthy arm.
Of my current starting rotation, the only pitcher with more than 38 days on the DL over the past three years is Harang (73, but 45 of those were for an appendectomy). Wandy (38) and Kennedy (26) are the only other starters with ANY DL time since 2007.
So I would bet money that AT LEAST two of Sonnanstine, Medlen, Vandenhurk and Carrasco will be members of a rotation somewhere by well before the All Star Break. Perhaps all four by season's end.
That guy at the top of your rotation right now (whoever you are, reading this)? 50% chance he ends up on the DL this year. Fact. I'd rather have educated speculations already on reserve than have to take a chance in the free agent pool. [/QUOTE]Well, Hellickson has both experience and a track record in the minor leagues. To me, that's almost as good as the majors, not in terms of raw quality, but in terms of predictive quality. Sonnanstine has a track record in the majors. If that's what you value, I'd love to know what was so great about him in his time in the majors. I would quote his ML numbers here but that would be a bit cruel and unusual. And, yes, I mean his peripheral or 'component' stats, as it were.
[ March 31, 2010, 11:54 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]
quote:Originally posted by bjoak:
quote:BTW what was thinking on Sonnanstine, if you dont mind a question.This is a good question, particularly because if you want a frontline starter that will show up later in the year (from the same team, no less) why not pick up Hellickson there? [/QUOTE]Because Hellickson has no experience and no track record. I already have one of those on my team (Strasburg). Sonnanstine has experience, had very solid peripherals just a few years ago and a good spring. Although he barely lost out on a rotation spot, he will be prime trade bait if his spring success carries over into the season.
Remember that there are two types of pitchers in baseball: those that are hurt, and those that are not hurt... yet. There will always be a market, and a job waiting, for a healthy arm.
Of my current starting rotation, the only pitcher with more than 38 days on the DL over the past three years is Harang (73, but 45 of those were for an appendectomy). Wandy (38) and Kennedy (26) are the only other starters with ANY DL time since 2007.
So I would bet money that AT LEAST two of Sonnanstine, Medlen, Vandenhurk and Carrasco will be members of a rotation somewhere by well before the All Star Break. Perhaps all four by season's end.
That guy at the top of your rotation right now (whoever you are, reading this)? 50% chance he ends up on the DL this year. Fact. I'd rather have educated speculations already on reserve than have to take a chance in the free agent pool. [/QUOTE]Well, Hellickson has both experience and a track record in the minor leagues. To me, that's almost as good as the majors, not in terms of raw quality, but in terms of predictive quality. Sonnanstine has a track record in the majors. If that's what you value, I'd love to know what was so great about him in his time in the majors. I would quote his ML numbers here but that would be a bit cruel and unusual. And, yes, I mean his peripheral or 'component' stats, as it were.
[ March 31, 2010, 11:54 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]
Chance favors the prepared mind.
-
hermsmeyer
- Posts: 42
- Joined: Wed Feb 17, 2010 6:00 pm
- Contact:
The Winning Baseball HQ Team!
Since we're talking about injuries, here are some more fun facts.
* In the past 4 years the average number of pitchers to hit the DL is 217 per year. This includes relievers, which is a part of the player pool we typically do not penetrate into very deeply. For these purposes I'll assume starters and relievers have roughly the same likelihood of injury.
* If injured, the mean DL days per pitcher regardless of number of stint(s) is 61. That's around 12 missed starts per injured pitcher, on average.
* The variance for both is very small. In other words, you can count on the number for this year being very close to the above (though the number has been increasing- see below).
* There is no such thing as the Verducci effect, at least as popularized by Will Carroll and Tom Verducci. It's a crapshoot.
* Days lost to injures for all players have increased every year for the past 15 years.
Given the above, a couple observations:
- For the typical starter, 12 games lost is around 40% of their season. Since around 1/2 get injured that's an expectation of 80% of projected healthy production per pitcher.
- The pitchers who replace the injured pitcher on the roster are equally at risk to be injured.
The questions that haunt me are:
is 80% of Halladay (or whomever) worth a second round pick? Is 80% of Wandy worth a 7th (or whatever) round pick?
Since there appears to be no systematic way to eliminate injury risk (or maybe you disagree - or have found the sekret formula), does it makes sense to simply roster the best talent you can?
Is there any way to avoid overpaying for pitching in the NFBC?
FWIW I paid $27 for Greinke at auction.
* In the past 4 years the average number of pitchers to hit the DL is 217 per year. This includes relievers, which is a part of the player pool we typically do not penetrate into very deeply. For these purposes I'll assume starters and relievers have roughly the same likelihood of injury.
* If injured, the mean DL days per pitcher regardless of number of stint(s) is 61. That's around 12 missed starts per injured pitcher, on average.
* The variance for both is very small. In other words, you can count on the number for this year being very close to the above (though the number has been increasing- see below).
* There is no such thing as the Verducci effect, at least as popularized by Will Carroll and Tom Verducci. It's a crapshoot.
* Days lost to injures for all players have increased every year for the past 15 years.
Given the above, a couple observations:
- For the typical starter, 12 games lost is around 40% of their season. Since around 1/2 get injured that's an expectation of 80% of projected healthy production per pitcher.
- The pitchers who replace the injured pitcher on the roster are equally at risk to be injured.
The questions that haunt me are:
is 80% of Halladay (or whomever) worth a second round pick? Is 80% of Wandy worth a 7th (or whatever) round pick?
Since there appears to be no systematic way to eliminate injury risk (or maybe you disagree - or have found the sekret formula), does it makes sense to simply roster the best talent you can?
Is there any way to avoid overpaying for pitching in the NFBC?
FWIW I paid $27 for Greinke at auction.
-
Hells Satans
- Posts: 1180
- Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2010 6:00 pm
The Winning Baseball HQ Team!
Originally posted by hermsmeyer:
Since we're talking about injuries, here are some more fun facts.
* In the past 4 years the average number of pitchers to hit the DL is 217 per year. This includes relievers, which is a part of the player pool we typically do not penetrate into very deeply. For these purposes I'll assume starters and relievers have roughly the same likelihood of injury.
* If injured, the mean DL days per pitcher regardless of number of stint(s) is 61. That's around 12 missed starts per injured pitcher, on average.
* The variance for both is very small. In other words, you can count on the number for this year being very close to the above (though the number has been increasing- see below).
* There is no such thing as the Verducci effect, at least as popularized by Will Carroll and Tom Verducci. It's a crapshoot.
* Days lost to injures for all players have increased every year for the past 15 years.
Given the above, a couple observations:
- For the typical starter, 12 games lost is around 40% of their season. Since around 1/2 get injured that's an expectation of 80% of projected healthy production per pitcher.
- The pitchers who replace the injured pitcher on the roster are equally at risk to be injured.
The questions that haunt me are:
is 80% of Halladay (or whomever) worth a second round pick? Is 80% of Wandy worth a 7th (or whatever) round pick?
Since there appears to be no systematic way to eliminate injury risk (or maybe you disagree - or have found the sekret formula), does it makes sense to simply roster the best talent you can?
Is there any way to avoid overpaying for pitching in the NFBC?
FWIW I paid $27 for Greinke at auction. These are all fair points, but I think the fallacy lies in assuming that injuries are random events that are distributed evenly among starting pitchers. Roy Halladay hasnt missed a start in 4 years. He's 32 years old and presumable through the "injury nexus" years. That doesnt mean he's too old to require TJ surgery or blow out a shoulder (see Carpenter, Hudson, Webb - although Carpenter has always been an injury risk), but I think it means he's much less likely to do so than a Lincecum or a Greinke or a Hanson, all of whom IMO present real risk. Javier Vasquez hasn't missed a start since 1999. Dan Haren hasnt missed a start since he entered the rotation in 2005. I believe Sabathia has missed only a handful of starts since 2001.
There's probably no good answer, but with high picks I try to target guys: (1) in their late 20s/early 30s; (2) with a 3-5 year injury-free history; (3) with no real history of abuse in thier early 20s; and (4) with big lower bodies.
Since we're talking about injuries, here are some more fun facts.
* In the past 4 years the average number of pitchers to hit the DL is 217 per year. This includes relievers, which is a part of the player pool we typically do not penetrate into very deeply. For these purposes I'll assume starters and relievers have roughly the same likelihood of injury.
* If injured, the mean DL days per pitcher regardless of number of stint(s) is 61. That's around 12 missed starts per injured pitcher, on average.
* The variance for both is very small. In other words, you can count on the number for this year being very close to the above (though the number has been increasing- see below).
* There is no such thing as the Verducci effect, at least as popularized by Will Carroll and Tom Verducci. It's a crapshoot.
* Days lost to injures for all players have increased every year for the past 15 years.
Given the above, a couple observations:
- For the typical starter, 12 games lost is around 40% of their season. Since around 1/2 get injured that's an expectation of 80% of projected healthy production per pitcher.
- The pitchers who replace the injured pitcher on the roster are equally at risk to be injured.
The questions that haunt me are:
is 80% of Halladay (or whomever) worth a second round pick? Is 80% of Wandy worth a 7th (or whatever) round pick?
Since there appears to be no systematic way to eliminate injury risk (or maybe you disagree - or have found the sekret formula), does it makes sense to simply roster the best talent you can?
Is there any way to avoid overpaying for pitching in the NFBC?
FWIW I paid $27 for Greinke at auction. These are all fair points, but I think the fallacy lies in assuming that injuries are random events that are distributed evenly among starting pitchers. Roy Halladay hasnt missed a start in 4 years. He's 32 years old and presumable through the "injury nexus" years. That doesnt mean he's too old to require TJ surgery or blow out a shoulder (see Carpenter, Hudson, Webb - although Carpenter has always been an injury risk), but I think it means he's much less likely to do so than a Lincecum or a Greinke or a Hanson, all of whom IMO present real risk. Javier Vasquez hasn't missed a start since 1999. Dan Haren hasnt missed a start since he entered the rotation in 2005. I believe Sabathia has missed only a handful of starts since 2001.
There's probably no good answer, but with high picks I try to target guys: (1) in their late 20s/early 30s; (2) with a 3-5 year injury-free history; (3) with no real history of abuse in thier early 20s; and (4) with big lower bodies.
-
hermsmeyer
- Posts: 42
- Joined: Wed Feb 17, 2010 6:00 pm
- Contact:
The Winning Baseball HQ Team!
]These are all fair points, but I think the fallacy lies in assuming that injuries are random events that are distributed evenly among starting pitchers. Roy Halladay hasnt missed a start in 4 years. He's 32 years old and presumable through the "injury nexus" years. That doesnt mean he's too old to require TJ surgery or blow out a shoulder (see Carpenter, Hudson, Webb - although Carpenter has always been an injury risk), but I think it means he's much less likely to do so than a Lincecum or a Greinke or a Hanson, all of whom IMO present real risk. Javier Vasquez hasn't missed a start since 1999. Dan Haren hasnt missed a start since he entered the rotation in 2005. I believe Sabathia has missed only a handful of starts since 2001.
There's probably no good answer, but with high picks I try to target guys: (1) in their late 20s/early 30s; (2) with a 3-5 year injury-free history; (3) with no real history of abuse in thier early 20s; and (4) with big lower bodies. [/QB]Nice hypothesis. Let's test it.
1. Pitchers in their late 20s to early 30s. From 2002-2009 the average number of injury days for pitchers aged 28-32 is 60.46 days.
2. There were no pitchers that met your criteria. Roy Hallady was on the DL last year for 15 days, for instance.
3. You will need to be more specific, but keep in mind if you are suggesting an IP threshold for young pitchers ala Verducci there is no evidence one exists.
4. I don't know how to quantify this (BMI can't target lower half), so it may indeed be the sekret sauce!
Seriously though, I spend a lot of time learning about and studying pitching mechanics. Folks like Ryan, Maddux and Clemens pitched for a long time for a reason (besides HGH).
-Josh
There's probably no good answer, but with high picks I try to target guys: (1) in their late 20s/early 30s; (2) with a 3-5 year injury-free history; (3) with no real history of abuse in thier early 20s; and (4) with big lower bodies. [/QB]Nice hypothesis. Let's test it.
1. Pitchers in their late 20s to early 30s. From 2002-2009 the average number of injury days for pitchers aged 28-32 is 60.46 days.
2. There were no pitchers that met your criteria. Roy Hallady was on the DL last year for 15 days, for instance.
3. You will need to be more specific, but keep in mind if you are suggesting an IP threshold for young pitchers ala Verducci there is no evidence one exists.
4. I don't know how to quantify this (BMI can't target lower half), so it may indeed be the sekret sauce!
Seriously though, I spend a lot of time learning about and studying pitching mechanics. Folks like Ryan, Maddux and Clemens pitched for a long time for a reason (besides HGH).
-Josh
-
hermsmeyer
- Posts: 42
- Joined: Wed Feb 17, 2010 6:00 pm
- Contact:
The Winning Baseball HQ Team!
So I looked to see why Haren and Vazquez missed the filters. Both have been very healthy. Haren missed due to the way the query was coded due to his age. He would have passed the injury free test. Vazquez was scratched from a game last year due to abdominal pain, but has been very healthy overall as well.
Sabathia missed days in 05 and 06.
As you pointed out, the question of course is: does being relatively injury free as a pitcher make you less likely to not be injured in the future? I think looking at mechanics and history suggests yes. How much less likely? (edited out info about Sheets. Just a horrible example :-p)
It's dismal stuff.
[ April 01, 2010, 10:41 AM: Message edited by: hermsmeyer ]
Sabathia missed days in 05 and 06.
As you pointed out, the question of course is: does being relatively injury free as a pitcher make you less likely to not be injured in the future? I think looking at mechanics and history suggests yes. How much less likely? (edited out info about Sheets. Just a horrible example :-p)
It's dismal stuff.
[ April 01, 2010, 10:41 AM: Message edited by: hermsmeyer ]
-
Hells Satans
- Posts: 1180
- Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2010 6:00 pm
The Winning Baseball HQ Team!
Originally posted by hermsmeyer:
So I looked to see why Haren and Vazquez missed the filters. Both have been very healthy. Haren missed due to the way the query was coded due to his age. He would have passed the injury free test. Vazquez was scratched from a game last year due to abdominal pain, but has been very healthy overall as well.
Sabathia missed days in 05 and 06.
As you pointed out, the question of course is: does being relatively injury free as a pitcher make you less likely to not be injured in the future? I think looking at mechanics and history suggests yes. How much less likely? (edited out info about Sheets. Just a horrible example :-p)
It's dismal stuff. I would focus less on time on the DL than number of starts. Halladay may have been on the DL, but he made 32 starts and was 1 inning behind Verlander for the ML lead in IP. I would say any pitcher who made 31 or more starts is "injury free" for that year.
So I looked to see why Haren and Vazquez missed the filters. Both have been very healthy. Haren missed due to the way the query was coded due to his age. He would have passed the injury free test. Vazquez was scratched from a game last year due to abdominal pain, but has been very healthy overall as well.
Sabathia missed days in 05 and 06.
As you pointed out, the question of course is: does being relatively injury free as a pitcher make you less likely to not be injured in the future? I think looking at mechanics and history suggests yes. How much less likely? (edited out info about Sheets. Just a horrible example :-p)
It's dismal stuff. I would focus less on time on the DL than number of starts. Halladay may have been on the DL, but he made 32 starts and was 1 inning behind Verlander for the ML lead in IP. I would say any pitcher who made 31 or more starts is "injury free" for that year.
The Winning Baseball HQ Team!
Introducing hermsmeyers staff for this year:
Sheets
Cueto
Ervin Santana
Billingsley
Harden
Pavano
Bonderman
Dotel
Marmol
They're all no more likely to get injured than anyone else!
Sheets
Cueto
Ervin Santana
Billingsley
Harden
Pavano
Bonderman
Dotel
Marmol
They're all no more likely to get injured than anyone else!
Chance favors the prepared mind.
-
hermsmeyer
- Posts: 42
- Joined: Wed Feb 17, 2010 6:00 pm
- Contact:
The Winning Baseball HQ Team!
Actually I have 2 of em!
Sheets and Cutey.
But honestly, feel free to make an argument based on data, and I'll check it for you. Or pick a list of players who you feel won't blow up this year, say 30, and we'll see how much better than 50% on DL you do. Fair test?
Josh
Sheets and Cutey.
But honestly, feel free to make an argument based on data, and I'll check it for you. Or pick a list of players who you feel won't blow up this year, say 30, and we'll see how much better than 50% on DL you do. Fair test?
Josh
The Winning Baseball HQ Team!
Originally posted by hermsmeyer:
Actually I have 2 of em!
Sheets and Cutey.
But honestly, feel free to make an argument based on data, and I'll check it for you. Or pick a list of players who you feel won't blow up this year, say 30, and we'll see how much better than 50% on DL you do. Fair test?
Josh Pitchers are risky, there is no question. But saying they all carry the same risk is just as absurd as drafting that list of pitchers would be. People have tested the VE before and found different results than you. Why should I believe yours? I'd further argue that the Verducci Effect does not state that pitchers will get injured; it states that they are more likely to get injured *or* see a significant decrease in the quality of their production.
Actually I have 2 of em!
Sheets and Cutey.
But honestly, feel free to make an argument based on data, and I'll check it for you. Or pick a list of players who you feel won't blow up this year, say 30, and we'll see how much better than 50% on DL you do. Fair test?
Josh Pitchers are risky, there is no question. But saying they all carry the same risk is just as absurd as drafting that list of pitchers would be. People have tested the VE before and found different results than you. Why should I believe yours? I'd further argue that the Verducci Effect does not state that pitchers will get injured; it states that they are more likely to get injured *or* see a significant decrease in the quality of their production.
Chance favors the prepared mind.
-
hermsmeyer
- Posts: 42
- Joined: Wed Feb 17, 2010 6:00 pm
- Contact:
The Winning Baseball HQ Team!
No need to believe me.
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/20 ... effect.php
http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/ ... ci-effect/
And a rather poorly phrased observation in the original post aside (about replacement pitchers), I actually don't believe all players have the same health skill. I reiterated that above re: mechanics.
It is a different thing to say that I don't think that we can pick who will be the healthy pitchers each year than saying that all pitchers are equally healthy.
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/20 ... effect.php
http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/ ... ci-effect/
And a rather poorly phrased observation in the original post aside (about replacement pitchers), I actually don't believe all players have the same health skill. I reiterated that above re: mechanics.
It is a different thing to say that I don't think that we can pick who will be the healthy pitchers each year than saying that all pitchers are equally healthy.
-
Damage Inc
- Posts: 14
- Joined: Sun Mar 15, 2009 6:00 pm
The Winning Baseball HQ Team!
Keep over thinking everyone!
Put enough bright men in a room to think about the best way to accomplish something, and not much other than thinking will get done!
Next thing you know you're in 15th place crippled by your thoughts with no way of digging your way out!
Put enough bright men in a room to think about the best way to accomplish something, and not much other than thinking will get done!
Next thing you know you're in 15th place crippled by your thoughts with no way of digging your way out!
-
hermsmeyer
- Posts: 42
- Joined: Wed Feb 17, 2010 6:00 pm
- Contact:
The Winning Baseball HQ Team!
Ready, fire, aim!
-Josh
-Josh
-
Chest Rockwell
- Posts: 2400
- Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 6:00 pm
- Contact:
The Winning Baseball HQ Team!
Originally posted by Spyhunter:
quote:Originally posted by RON@HQ:
My point remains... these 30 are just a place to start. I'd bet even money that neither Wandy nor Anderson end up to be my stud. I'd also bet even money that whoever DOES end up anchoring my rotation will do better than than the "legitimate" staff anchors on at least half of the other teams in my league.
Last year, we would have been crowing about how lucky we were that we were able to roster Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, Johan Santana, Roy Oswalt, etc. And sitting here now, I'm not so upset to pass on the huge 2009 workloads of Lincecum, Verlander, Wainwright, etc.
Just saying... you can analyze Wandy all you want (and granted, his workload was a bit excessive last year too), but to pass judgment that my pitching is weak, well, frankly, EVERYONE'S pitching is weak right now. Ron,
This is Chris, we met in the Sheraton having breakfast if you may remember. It was nice to meet you in person, and apologies if on the boards some of us come across poorly as you were quite a gentleman. Anyway, I checked out the team, how do you think it compares to my draft?
Starters
C Ramon Hernandez CIN
C John Buck TOR
1B Todd Helton COL
2B Brandon Phillips CIN
3B Scott Rolen (or Garret Atkins)
SS Jimmy Rollins PHI
MI Casey McGehee MLW
CI Troy Glaus ATL
OF Matt Kemp LAD
OF Shin-Soo Choo CLE
OF Carlos Lee HOU
OF Alex Rios CWS
OF Nate McLouth ATL
UT Corey Hart MLW
P Dan Haren ARZ
P Yovani Gallardo MLW
P John Lackey BOS NYY
P Jair Jurrjens ATL
P Francisco Liriano MIN
P J.A. Happ PHI
P Colby Lewis TEX
P Bench Andrew Bailey OAK
P Bench Octavio Dotel PIT
Bench
3B Garrett Atkins BAL (or Scott Rolan)
P Gio Gonzalez OAK
1B Chris Carter OAK
P Chris Tillman BAL
P Jeremy Hellickson TB
C Carlos Santana CLE
OF Nate Schierholtz SF (30th Round!)
Chris aka Spyhunter [/QUOTE]That is an excellent draft IMO
quote:Originally posted by RON@HQ:
My point remains... these 30 are just a place to start. I'd bet even money that neither Wandy nor Anderson end up to be my stud. I'd also bet even money that whoever DOES end up anchoring my rotation will do better than than the "legitimate" staff anchors on at least half of the other teams in my league.
Last year, we would have been crowing about how lucky we were that we were able to roster Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, Johan Santana, Roy Oswalt, etc. And sitting here now, I'm not so upset to pass on the huge 2009 workloads of Lincecum, Verlander, Wainwright, etc.
Just saying... you can analyze Wandy all you want (and granted, his workload was a bit excessive last year too), but to pass judgment that my pitching is weak, well, frankly, EVERYONE'S pitching is weak right now. Ron,
This is Chris, we met in the Sheraton having breakfast if you may remember. It was nice to meet you in person, and apologies if on the boards some of us come across poorly as you were quite a gentleman. Anyway, I checked out the team, how do you think it compares to my draft?
Starters
C Ramon Hernandez CIN
C John Buck TOR
1B Todd Helton COL
2B Brandon Phillips CIN
3B Scott Rolen (or Garret Atkins)
SS Jimmy Rollins PHI
MI Casey McGehee MLW
CI Troy Glaus ATL
OF Matt Kemp LAD
OF Shin-Soo Choo CLE
OF Carlos Lee HOU
OF Alex Rios CWS
OF Nate McLouth ATL
UT Corey Hart MLW
P Dan Haren ARZ
P Yovani Gallardo MLW
P John Lackey BOS NYY
P Jair Jurrjens ATL
P Francisco Liriano MIN
P J.A. Happ PHI
P Colby Lewis TEX
P Bench Andrew Bailey OAK
P Bench Octavio Dotel PIT
Bench
3B Garrett Atkins BAL (or Scott Rolan)
P Gio Gonzalez OAK
1B Chris Carter OAK
P Chris Tillman BAL
P Jeremy Hellickson TB
C Carlos Santana CLE
OF Nate Schierholtz SF (30th Round!)
Chris aka Spyhunter [/QUOTE]That is an excellent draft IMO
-
Hells Satans
- Posts: 1180
- Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2010 6:00 pm
The Winning Baseball HQ Team!
Originally posted by hermsmeyer:
So I looked to see why Haren and Vazquez missed the filters. Both have been very healthy. Haren missed due to the way the query was coded due to his age. He would have passed the injury free test. Vazquez was scratched from a game last year due to abdominal pain, but has been very healthy overall as well.
Sabathia missed days in 05 and 06.
As you pointed out, the question of course is: does being relatively injury free as a pitcher make you less likely to not be injured in the future? I think looking at mechanics and history suggests yes. How much less likely? (edited out info about Sheets. Just a horrible example :-p)
It's dismal stuff. For S&Gs, I went back to the 2008 pitching leaders and identified the guys who finished in Top 10 in IPs and Ks in each league that were: (1) between 28-34; (2) were relatively injury free (i.e. 27+ starts in the prior few years); and (3) did not have any recent major injury. Basically, the guys you would think would be less likely to have a catstrophic injury on Draft Day 2009. I tried to be as honest about it as possible.
Here they are with their games started in 2009 in parens.
Sabathia (34)
Halladay (32)
Buerhle (33)
Vasquez (32)
Beckett (32)
Santana (25)
Webb (1)
Haren (33)
Oswalt (30)
Lowe (34)
Lilly (27)
Dempster (31)
Meche (23)
Lee (34)
That doesnt look bad to me. Out of 14 guys, 1 complete blowout (Webb), 1 star who missed 7-8 starts (Johan) and 1 mid-range draft pick (Lilly) and 1 back-of-the-drat guy (Meche). The other 9 guys all made 30 or more starts. Beckett is questionable because of his injury history with Fla (usually a blister problem) and Dempster had only been a starter for 1 year prior to 8, but had been worked hard as a reliever.
It would have been hard to see the Webb injury coming, but you otherwise would have done pretty well. It's drafting the Tommy Hansons, Cole Hamels, Josh Johnsons, Ubaldo Jiminez, etc. that get you in trouble.
So I looked to see why Haren and Vazquez missed the filters. Both have been very healthy. Haren missed due to the way the query was coded due to his age. He would have passed the injury free test. Vazquez was scratched from a game last year due to abdominal pain, but has been very healthy overall as well.
Sabathia missed days in 05 and 06.
As you pointed out, the question of course is: does being relatively injury free as a pitcher make you less likely to not be injured in the future? I think looking at mechanics and history suggests yes. How much less likely? (edited out info about Sheets. Just a horrible example :-p)
It's dismal stuff. For S&Gs, I went back to the 2008 pitching leaders and identified the guys who finished in Top 10 in IPs and Ks in each league that were: (1) between 28-34; (2) were relatively injury free (i.e. 27+ starts in the prior few years); and (3) did not have any recent major injury. Basically, the guys you would think would be less likely to have a catstrophic injury on Draft Day 2009. I tried to be as honest about it as possible.
Here they are with their games started in 2009 in parens.
Sabathia (34)
Halladay (32)
Buerhle (33)
Vasquez (32)
Beckett (32)
Santana (25)
Webb (1)
Haren (33)
Oswalt (30)
Lowe (34)
Lilly (27)
Dempster (31)
Meche (23)
Lee (34)
That doesnt look bad to me. Out of 14 guys, 1 complete blowout (Webb), 1 star who missed 7-8 starts (Johan) and 1 mid-range draft pick (Lilly) and 1 back-of-the-drat guy (Meche). The other 9 guys all made 30 or more starts. Beckett is questionable because of his injury history with Fla (usually a blister problem) and Dempster had only been a starter for 1 year prior to 8, but had been worked hard as a reliever.
It would have been hard to see the Webb injury coming, but you otherwise would have done pretty well. It's drafting the Tommy Hansons, Cole Hamels, Josh Johnsons, Ubaldo Jiminez, etc. that get you in trouble.
The Winning Baseball HQ Team!
Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:
quote:Originally posted by Spyhunter:
quote:Originally posted by RON@HQ:
My point remains... these 30 are just a place to start. I'd bet even money that neither Wandy nor Anderson end up to be my stud. I'd also bet even money that whoever DOES end up anchoring my rotation will do better than than the "legitimate" staff anchors on at least half of the other teams in my league.
Last year, we would have been crowing about how lucky we were that we were able to roster Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, Johan Santana, Roy Oswalt, etc. And sitting here now, I'm not so upset to pass on the huge 2009 workloads of Lincecum, Verlander, Wainwright, etc.
Just saying... you can analyze Wandy all you want (and granted, his workload was a bit excessive last year too), but to pass judgment that my pitching is weak, well, frankly, EVERYONE'S pitching is weak right now. Ron,
This is Chris, we met in the Sheraton having breakfast if you may remember. It was nice to meet you in person, and apologies if on the boards some of us come across poorly as you were quite a gentleman. Anyway, I checked out the team, how do you think it compares to my draft?
Starters
C Ramon Hernandez CIN
C John Buck TOR
1B Todd Helton COL
2B Brandon Phillips CIN
3B Scott Rolen (or Garret Atkins)
SS Jimmy Rollins PHI
MI Casey McGehee MLW
CI Troy Glaus ATL
OF Matt Kemp LAD
OF Shin-Soo Choo CLE
OF Carlos Lee HOU
OF Alex Rios CWS
OF Nate McLouth ATL
UT Corey Hart MLW
P Dan Haren ARZ
P Yovani Gallardo MLW
P John Lackey BOS NYY
P Jair Jurrjens ATL
P Francisco Liriano MIN
P J.A. Happ PHI
P Colby Lewis TEX
P Bench Andrew Bailey OAK
P Bench Octavio Dotel PIT
Bench
3B Garrett Atkins BAL (or Scott Rolan)
P Gio Gonzalez OAK
1B Chris Carter OAK
P Chris Tillman BAL
P Jeremy Hellickson TB
C Carlos Santana CLE
OF Nate Schierholtz SF (30th Round!)
Chris aka Spyhunter [/QUOTE]That is an excellent draft IMO [/QUOTE]Thanks Chest, appreciate the feedback. O/C Hart is already in trouble! Anyway, RT and I will mis-manage into the ground so no worries for those trying to win $100k. We just suck as managers. Drafting we are fine at, managing, not so good
GL to all
quote:Originally posted by Spyhunter:
quote:Originally posted by RON@HQ:
My point remains... these 30 are just a place to start. I'd bet even money that neither Wandy nor Anderson end up to be my stud. I'd also bet even money that whoever DOES end up anchoring my rotation will do better than than the "legitimate" staff anchors on at least half of the other teams in my league.
Last year, we would have been crowing about how lucky we were that we were able to roster Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, Johan Santana, Roy Oswalt, etc. And sitting here now, I'm not so upset to pass on the huge 2009 workloads of Lincecum, Verlander, Wainwright, etc.
Just saying... you can analyze Wandy all you want (and granted, his workload was a bit excessive last year too), but to pass judgment that my pitching is weak, well, frankly, EVERYONE'S pitching is weak right now. Ron,
This is Chris, we met in the Sheraton having breakfast if you may remember. It was nice to meet you in person, and apologies if on the boards some of us come across poorly as you were quite a gentleman. Anyway, I checked out the team, how do you think it compares to my draft?
Starters
C Ramon Hernandez CIN
C John Buck TOR
1B Todd Helton COL
2B Brandon Phillips CIN
3B Scott Rolen (or Garret Atkins)
SS Jimmy Rollins PHI
MI Casey McGehee MLW
CI Troy Glaus ATL
OF Matt Kemp LAD
OF Shin-Soo Choo CLE
OF Carlos Lee HOU
OF Alex Rios CWS
OF Nate McLouth ATL
UT Corey Hart MLW
P Dan Haren ARZ
P Yovani Gallardo MLW
P John Lackey BOS NYY
P Jair Jurrjens ATL
P Francisco Liriano MIN
P J.A. Happ PHI
P Colby Lewis TEX
P Bench Andrew Bailey OAK
P Bench Octavio Dotel PIT
Bench
3B Garrett Atkins BAL (or Scott Rolan)
P Gio Gonzalez OAK
1B Chris Carter OAK
P Chris Tillman BAL
P Jeremy Hellickson TB
C Carlos Santana CLE
OF Nate Schierholtz SF (30th Round!)
Chris aka Spyhunter [/QUOTE]That is an excellent draft IMO [/QUOTE]Thanks Chest, appreciate the feedback. O/C Hart is already in trouble! Anyway, RT and I will mis-manage into the ground so no worries for those trying to win $100k. We just suck as managers. Drafting we are fine at, managing, not so good
GL to all
-
Schwartzstops
- Posts: 94
- Joined: Sun Oct 01, 2006 6:00 pm
The Winning Baseball HQ Team!
Great thread, highlighting two distinct approaches. This reminds me of Gekko's post from a couple weeks back about the sudden and lengthy SP run in one of the Vegas drafts. Personally I don't believe in the notion of runs during a draft, it's just simply a reflection of how each league is valuing different players at different points in the draft. If you are targeting certain players or types of players, you can either take them when the market dictates is the right time, or you can go in another direction, but in any case, the cost of acquiring any player is what the market says it is.
(Doesn't mean they will earn it, but that's why the games are played!)
In case anyone is interested, here were my top 7 SP's last year in terms of innings, and how I acquired them, en route to 5th overall:
W.Rodriguez, 13th round
Jr.Weaver, 12th round
E.Jackson, FAAB, week 1
Garza, 11th round
Nolasco, 10th round
Pineiro, FAAB, week 2
Saunders, 19th round
Note that I took my first SP in the 10th round and then took four straight, because I felt that was the tier of SP's where the best value existed last year.
This year, I targeted SP's earlier because I thought the best value was in the 5th-8th rounds or so, and I didn't even get all of the guys I was targeting at that point... the similar tier of SP's that I shopped in last year was more expensive this year.
(In 2007 I took Johan in the 2nd and Carpenter in the 4th because I thought those were can't-pass-up values; that turned out to be a fiasco.)
So IMO neither Ron nor Shawn nor anyone else is "right", nor wrong... it's simply a matter of how you value pitching and at what point in the draft you think is the right time to start picking up the guys you think are the best values. To some, that's Lincecum in the 1st, and to others, that's Brett Anderson in the 10th. In October we'll see who's approach was the right one this year for these teams, but in no case will the outcome prove anything.
(Doesn't mean they will earn it, but that's why the games are played!)
In case anyone is interested, here were my top 7 SP's last year in terms of innings, and how I acquired them, en route to 5th overall:
W.Rodriguez, 13th round
Jr.Weaver, 12th round
E.Jackson, FAAB, week 1
Garza, 11th round
Nolasco, 10th round
Pineiro, FAAB, week 2
Saunders, 19th round
Note that I took my first SP in the 10th round and then took four straight, because I felt that was the tier of SP's where the best value existed last year.
This year, I targeted SP's earlier because I thought the best value was in the 5th-8th rounds or so, and I didn't even get all of the guys I was targeting at that point... the similar tier of SP's that I shopped in last year was more expensive this year.
(In 2007 I took Johan in the 2nd and Carpenter in the 4th because I thought those were can't-pass-up values; that turned out to be a fiasco.)
So IMO neither Ron nor Shawn nor anyone else is "right", nor wrong... it's simply a matter of how you value pitching and at what point in the draft you think is the right time to start picking up the guys you think are the best values. To some, that's Lincecum in the 1st, and to others, that's Brett Anderson in the 10th. In October we'll see who's approach was the right one this year for these teams, but in no case will the outcome prove anything.
-
Chest Rockwell
- Posts: 2400
- Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 6:00 pm
- Contact:
The Winning Baseball HQ Team!
Originally posted by Schwartzstops:
Great thread, highlighting two distinct approaches. This reminds me of Gekko's post from a couple weeks back about the sudden and lengthy SP run in one of the Vegas drafts. Personally I don't believe in the notion of runs during a draft, it's just simply a reflection of how each league is valuing different players at different points in the draft. If you are targeting certain players or types of players, you can either take them when the market dictates is the right time, or you can go in another direction, but in any case, the cost of acquiring any player is what the market says it is.
(Doesn't mean they will earn it, but that's why the games are played!)
In case anyone is interested, here were my top 7 SP's last year in terms of innings, and how I acquired them, en route to 5th overall:
W.Rodriguez, 13th round
Jr.Weaver, 12th round
E.Jackson, FAAB, week 1
Garza, 11th round
Nolasco, 10th round
Pineiro, FAAB, week 2
Saunders, 19th round
Note that I took my first SP in the 10th round and then took four straight, because I felt that was the tier of SP's where the best value existed last year.
This year, I targeted SP's earlier because I thought the best value was in the 5th-8th rounds or so, and I didn't even get all of the guys I was targeting at that point... the similar tier of SP's that I shopped in last year was more expensive this year.
(In 2007 I took Johan in the 2nd and Carpenter in the 4th because I thought those were can't-pass-up values; that turned out to be a fiasco.)
So IMO neither Ron nor Shawn nor anyone else is "right", nor wrong... it's simply a matter of how you value pitching and at what point in the draft you think is the right time to start picking up the guys you think are the best values. To some, that's Lincecum in the 1st, and to others, that's Brett Anderson in the 10th. In October we'll see who's approach was the right one this year for these teams, but in no case will the outcome prove anything. I think you nailed it with this post. 2 simple thoughts: 1) This is a way it can be done. 2) The way the inventory worked this year made it much more difficult to do it. All the power in the world to Ron if he gets it done. I like you felt that you needed to go a little earlier with starting pitching this year. I only saw 3-5 legit candidates in rounds 9-15 to do it. You have to assume you are not going to get all or most of them.
Mine were Baker, B Anderson, Dempster, Porcello ( I believe 140k's are there), J Sanchez, Strasberg.
I attempted to get one of the first 3 on every team and one of the 2nd three.
Great thread, highlighting two distinct approaches. This reminds me of Gekko's post from a couple weeks back about the sudden and lengthy SP run in one of the Vegas drafts. Personally I don't believe in the notion of runs during a draft, it's just simply a reflection of how each league is valuing different players at different points in the draft. If you are targeting certain players or types of players, you can either take them when the market dictates is the right time, or you can go in another direction, but in any case, the cost of acquiring any player is what the market says it is.
(Doesn't mean they will earn it, but that's why the games are played!)
In case anyone is interested, here were my top 7 SP's last year in terms of innings, and how I acquired them, en route to 5th overall:
W.Rodriguez, 13th round
Jr.Weaver, 12th round
E.Jackson, FAAB, week 1
Garza, 11th round
Nolasco, 10th round
Pineiro, FAAB, week 2
Saunders, 19th round
Note that I took my first SP in the 10th round and then took four straight, because I felt that was the tier of SP's where the best value existed last year.
This year, I targeted SP's earlier because I thought the best value was in the 5th-8th rounds or so, and I didn't even get all of the guys I was targeting at that point... the similar tier of SP's that I shopped in last year was more expensive this year.
(In 2007 I took Johan in the 2nd and Carpenter in the 4th because I thought those were can't-pass-up values; that turned out to be a fiasco.)
So IMO neither Ron nor Shawn nor anyone else is "right", nor wrong... it's simply a matter of how you value pitching and at what point in the draft you think is the right time to start picking up the guys you think are the best values. To some, that's Lincecum in the 1st, and to others, that's Brett Anderson in the 10th. In October we'll see who's approach was the right one this year for these teams, but in no case will the outcome prove anything. I think you nailed it with this post. 2 simple thoughts: 1) This is a way it can be done. 2) The way the inventory worked this year made it much more difficult to do it. All the power in the world to Ron if he gets it done. I like you felt that you needed to go a little earlier with starting pitching this year. I only saw 3-5 legit candidates in rounds 9-15 to do it. You have to assume you are not going to get all or most of them.
Mine were Baker, B Anderson, Dempster, Porcello ( I believe 140k's are there), J Sanchez, Strasberg.
I attempted to get one of the first 3 on every team and one of the 2nd three.
-
rockitsauce
- Posts: 1095
- Joined: Wed Mar 21, 2007 6:00 pm
The Winning Baseball HQ Team!
Originally posted by Hells Satans:
There's probably no good answer, but with high picks I try to target guys: (1) in their late 20s/early 30s; (2) with a 3-5 year injury-free history; (3) with no real history of abuse in thier early 20s; and (4) with big lower bodies . Sir Mix a Lot endorses #4
There's probably no good answer, but with high picks I try to target guys: (1) in their late 20s/early 30s; (2) with a 3-5 year injury-free history; (3) with no real history of abuse in thier early 20s; and (4) with big lower bodies . Sir Mix a Lot endorses #4
Always be closing.
-
Schwartzstops
- Posts: 94
- Joined: Sun Oct 01, 2006 6:00 pm
The Winning Baseball HQ Team!
Originally posted by rockitsauce:
quote:Originally posted by Hells Satans:
There's probably no good answer, but with high picks I try to target guys: (1) in their late 20s/early 30s; (2) with a 3-5 year injury-free history; (3) with no real history of abuse in thier early 20s; and (4) with big lower bodies . Sir Mix a Lot endorses #4 [/QUOTE]Brilliant reply.
WRT #3, does this mean you are discriminating against pitchers from broken homes, or perhaps that Josh Hamilton could never pitch for your team?
quote:Originally posted by Hells Satans:
There's probably no good answer, but with high picks I try to target guys: (1) in their late 20s/early 30s; (2) with a 3-5 year injury-free history; (3) with no real history of abuse in thier early 20s; and (4) with big lower bodies . Sir Mix a Lot endorses #4
[/QUOTE]Brilliant reply.WRT #3, does this mean you are discriminating against pitchers from broken homes, or perhaps that Josh Hamilton could never pitch for your team?