First Round 2012

Baseball Furies · Post by **Baseball Furies** » Sun Oct 09, 2011 12:38 pm

The answer is on Howard is he won't and shouldn't be drafted. Torn Achilles= at least 12months which=2013 being the next time we see a completely healthy Ryan Howard back on the field. For those of you who are risk takers, I seem to recall something about Kendry Morales (who only broke an ankle) being back a month or two into the 2011 season, and those of us who drafted him late are still waiting for a sighting. Save your pick. Round Five 2013 is more like it. :rolleyes:

Dub · Post by **Dub** » Sun Oct 09, 2011 1:11 pm

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

I promised the rest of our crew that I wouldn't post any more rounds.

We're close to finishing up the ninth round now.

Ialso don't want to leave you guys high and dry, so I'll throw out these nuggets.

These players went close together

Bourn- Utley

Stubbs- Moore

Bonifacio- Jeter

Maybin- Werth

Who are the better picks? Dough: Just curious- Why don't they want us to see?

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sun Oct 09, 2011 1:17 pm

It wasn't them, it was me.

Five rounds is enough of a free look.

I'll give some snipets, but it wouldn't be fair to go public on the whole draft just because we're first.

Hope you understand.

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Sun Oct 09, 2011 2:54 pm

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

It wasn't them, it was me.

Five rounds is enough of a free look.

I'll give some snipets, but it wouldn't be fair to go public on the whole draft just because we're first.

Hope you understand. sounds like you are going "Anonymous" on us Dough.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sun Oct 09, 2011 3:22 pm

We'd love to have you in the league next year, Gekko.

Then we can post all 30 rounds if you'd like!

Dub · Post by **Dub** » Mon Oct 10, 2011 8:17 am

it was great fun while it lasted

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Oct 19, 2011 10:16 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Here is the first round of the first NFBC draft of the season-

1. Matt Kemp

2. Troy Tulowitzki

3. Jacoby Ellsbury

4. Albert Pujols

5. Adrian Gonzalez

6. Ryan Braun

7. Curtis Granderson

8. Miguel Cabrera

9. Justin Upton

10. Jose Bautista

11. Prince Fielder

12. Joey Votto

13. Robinson Cano

14. Evan Longoria

15. Clayton Kershaw

Who's smart, who's dumb?

Let us have it.... I was doing some research today for my first fantasy baseball column of the season that will be posted on a few select sites soon and I came across some interesting items involving the first round:

** Albert Pujols is sure to be a consensus 1st round pick this year in fantasy drafts across the country. That would mean that for the 12th straight season Albert will be a fantasy first-rounder. At no point since his breakout 2001 season -- when he was one of the best sleeper picks of all-time -- has he fallen out of the first round. So it's 12 and counting.

** There's no doubt that Alex Rodriguez falls out of the first round this season for the first time since 1997. That means A-Rod was a consensus first-round pick each of the last 15 seasons, quite possibly a modern record for fantasy baseball. I had him ranked in the Top 10 for Fantasy Sports Magazine every year since 1997 and his ADP in the NFBC definitely was Top 10 every year since 2004. But that ends this year.

** 8 of last year's Top 15 according to the NFBC's ADP will likely return to the first round in 2012. They include Troy Tulowitzki (ADP of 3 in 2011), Pujols (1), Miguel Cabrera (4), Joey Votto (5), Ryan Braun (8), Evan Longoria (9), Robinson Cano (10) and Adrian Gonzalez (11). Jacoby Ellsbury and Clayton Kershaw had ADPs of 40 and 41, respectively, last year and now are first-rounders. Carl Crawford appears to have taken the biggest nose-dive in the last year, with his ADP being 7 in 2011 and going 33rd in our first NFBC draft.

Other first-rounders from 2011 who have fallen out of favor in 2012 include: Hanley Ramirez, Carlos Gonzalez, Crawford, David Wright, A-Rod, Mark Teixeira and Josh Hamilton.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Oct 20, 2011 12:47 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

Other first-rounders from 2011 who have fallen out of favor in 2012 include: Hanley Ramirez, Carlos Gonzalez, Crawford, David Wright, A-Rod, Mark Teixeira and Josh Hamilton. A-Rod excepted, I think this means there is a deeper top tier than I can remember. With such a plethora of power, speed, and power/speed guys available throughout the second round, I see a shift in KDS importance (less). And the opportunity cost of picking starting pitching first or second round is even higher.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Oct 20, 2011 2:14 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

quote:Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

Other first-rounders from 2011 who have fallen out of favor in 2012 include: Hanley Ramirez, Carlos Gonzalez, Crawford, David Wright, A-Rod, Mark Teixeira and Josh Hamilton. A-Rod excepted, I think this means there is a deeper top tier than I can remember. With such a plethora of power, speed, and power/speed guys available throughout the second round, I see a shift in KDS importance (less). And the opportunity cost of picking starting pitching first or second round is even higher. [/QUOTE]Honestly Wayne, my thought after looking at the first three potential rounds was just the opposite on KDS. I don't think there is any question that this is the one year I can remember since 2004 that folks will be less enamored with the top picks and will definitely be interested in moving elsewhere with their KDS. I don't see many people going straight 1-15 when you look at how you can start out from the middle to late end of the draft. I might be wrong, but I have a feeling a lot of folks will have different views of where value lies in this year's early rounds and thus I believe KDS will be all over the board this year for baseball, very similar to what we just saw in football.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Thu Oct 20, 2011 2:51 am

I usually don't do this, but here are the links to a couple of columns I wrote for KFFL.com on this topic.

The premise was MY first round - not what I think the ADP will be or what I think the objective rankings will look like. If I was on the clock at each pick, who would I take assuming everyone already listed was taken.

HONORABLE MENTION

TOP 15

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Oct 20, 2011 3:17 am

Originally posted by ToddZ:

I usually don't do this, but here are the links to a couple of columns I wrote for KFFL.com on this topic.

The premise was MY first round - not what I think the ADP will be or what I think the objective rankings will look like. If I was on the clock at each pick, who would I take assuming everyone already listed was taken.

HONORABLE MENTION

TOP 15 It's good to have opinions posted this early in the off-season Todd, so thanks for the link. So just to clarify, your Top 15 picks right now would be:

1. Ryan Braun

2. Albert Pujols

3. Miguel Cabrera

4. Matt Kemp

5. Jose Bautista

6. Joey Votto

7. Robinson Cano

8. Troy Tulowitzki

9. Adrian Gonzalez

10. Jacoby Ellsbury

11. Matt Holliday

12. Hanley Ramirez

13. Carlos Gonzalez

14. David Wright

15. Prince Fielder

Fair enough. I see a lot of injury-risk in 11-15 and I definitely have the Top 10 in a different order, but that's the beauty of this year's first round. Everyone will have a different view of things this year. Let's see how it plays out once the drafting season really gets going.

One quick question: As a Brewers' fan I love the Braun projection, but don't you think the absence of Fielder will seriously impact Braun's numbers? Right now I don't see Weeks being able to protect his bat. I do believe they will bring in one veteran free agent to add punch to this lineup, but there's no guarantee it will be enough to protect Braun. Heck, Braunie could even slide into the cleanup spot and replace Fielder's bat there, but that lack of protection scares me. Does it scare you?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Oct 20, 2011 3:36 am

My early analysis of the NFBC's first round has been posted on Rotowire.com today:

http://www.rotowire.com/baseball/showAr ... m?id=14085

I'm looking forward to writing this year for Rotowire.com and BaseballHQ.com with my personal opinions and NFBC analysis appearing weekly on both sites. It's great to provide our NFBC data and trends to these great baseball sites and I thank Ron and Peter/Jeff for allowing our info to be posted on their great sites. I believe you'll also see some of these columns posted among the Associated Press offerings as we are going to be very aggressive editorially to get the word out this year about the NFBC. Enjoy and even critique my offerings!!

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Thu Oct 20, 2011 3:40 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

It's good to have opinions posted this early in the off-season Todd, so thanks for the link. So just to clarify, your Top 15 picks right now would be:

1. Ryan Braun

2. Albert Pujols

3. Miguel Cabrera

4. Matt Kemp

5. Jose Bautista

6. Joey Votto

7. Robinson Cano

8. Troy Tulowitzki

9. Adrian Gonzalez

10. Jacoby Ellsbury

11. Matt Holliday

12. Hanley Ramirez

13. Carlos Gonzalez

14. David Wright

15. Prince Fielder

Fair enough. I see a lot of injury-risk in 11-15 and I definitely have the Top 10 in a different order, but that's the beauty of this year's first round. Everyone will have a different view of things this year. Let's see how it plays out once the drafting season really gets going.Yes, this is how I would draft, not my prediction of the ADP, etc. That said, if you read the two columns, I think you will see if I redid the list, Kinsler would replace Holliday. As for the injury risk, yes, it is there but these picks are close to the wheel and the plan would be to go for more reliability with the comeback pick. Any other player you choose to put in that spot instead is going to have a wart of some kind, most of which I talked about in the companion piece. I sense I will get the biggest disagreement with Longoria and with those that opt to draft an elite arm early.

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

One quick question: As a Brewers' fan I love the Braun projection, but don't you think the absence of Fielder will seriously impact Braun's numbers? Right now I don't see Weeks being able to protect his bat. I do believe they will bring in one veteran free agent to add punch to this lineup, but there's no guarantee it will be enough to protect Braun. Heck, Braunie could even slide into the cleanup spot and replace Fielder's bat there, but that lack of protection scares me. Does it scare you? That's two questions

To me, runs and RBI are so fickle that I am not going to get overly concerned. "On paper" his runs scored could be affected but there is so much variability with runs and RBI that it is not going to impact my ranking. If, during the season he is having a year where he is scoring 10-15 fewer runs than I hoped, I have 13 other spots to manage to make up that difference, especially with judicious use of the Friday transactions for hitters.

As for protection, I won't go too numerish on you, but every study I have seen show it is a myth - I know intuitively it makes sense but it has been shown that a player's SKILLS do not change based on the player before or after him in the lineup.

What might change is the number of IBB which may lower his RBI a bit, but similar to the runs analysis, RBI has so much variability based on circumstance that it is not going to impact my ranking.

In the big picture sense, at the end of the day, to compete in the runs and RBI categories, you need to maximize your AB, which is part good luck with injuries and part diligence with roster management. So the potential of losing 10-15 runs/RBI is not enough to scare me away from the combination of elite skills and reliability.

[ October 20, 2011, 09:43 AM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Thu Oct 20, 2011 4:04 am

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

** Albert Pujols is sure to be a consensus 1st round pick this year in fantasy drafts across the country. That would mean that for the 12th straight season Albert will be a fantasy first-rounder. At no point since his breakout 2001 season -- when he was one of the best sleeper picks of all-time -- has he fallen out of the first round. So it's 12 and counting.

Greg, well he fell out of the 1st rd for Jurney when he won the NFBC in 2008. 2nd Rd. That was the year his elbow was spooking everybody. Not sure if his ADP kept him in rd 1 or not though.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Oct 20, 2011 4:36 am

Originally posted by Quahogs:

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

** Albert Pujols is sure to be a consensus 1st round pick this year in fantasy drafts across the country. That would mean that for the 12th straight season Albert will be a fantasy first-rounder. At no point since his breakout 2001 season -- when he was one of the best sleeper picks of all-time -- has he fallen out of the first round. So it's 12 and counting.

Greg, well he fell out of the 1st rd for Jurney when he won the NFBC in 2008. 2nd Rd. That was the year his elbow was spooking everybody. Not sure if his ADP kept him in rd 1 or not though. Yeah, I'm looking at several 2008 mags and he's Top 5 in all of them, but you are right just before Draft Day his value may have dropped because of the elbow. There was talk of surgery, but of course he played 148 games that year. I bet his ADP was still Top 15 and Bobby just pulled a fast one on his league-mates!!!

I'm sticking to my story dammit!!

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Thu Oct 20, 2011 5:31 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

quote:Originally posted by Quahogs:

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

** Albert Pujols is sure to be a consensus 1st round pick this year in fantasy drafts across the country. That would mean that for the 12th straight season Albert will be a fantasy first-rounder. At no point since his breakout 2001 season -- when he was one of the best sleeper picks of all-time -- has he fallen out of the first round. So it's 12 and counting.

Greg, well he fell out of the 1st rd for Jurney when he won the NFBC in 2008. 2nd Rd. That was the year his elbow was spooking everybody. Not sure if his ADP kept him in rd 1 or not though. Yeah, I'm looking at several 2008 mags and he's Top 5 in all of them, but you are right just before Draft Day his value may have dropped because of the elbow. There was talk of surgery, but of course he played 148 games that year. I bet his ADP was still Top 15 and Bobby just pulled a fast one on his league-mates!!!

I'm sticking to my story dammit!!

[/QUOTE]No problem ! I just think your article needs this now

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Oct 20, 2011 6:08 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

quote:Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

quote:Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

Other first-rounders from 2011 who have fallen out of favor in 2012 include: Hanley Ramirez, Carlos Gonzalez, Crawford, David Wright, A-Rod, Mark Teixeira and Josh Hamilton. A-Rod excepted, I think this means there is a deeper top tier than I can remember. With such a plethora of power, speed, and power/speed guys available throughout the second round, I see a shift in KDS importance (less). And the opportunity cost of picking starting pitching first or second round is even higher. [/QUOTE]Honestly Wayne, my thought after looking at the first three potential rounds was just the opposite on KDS. I don't think there is any question that this is the one year I can remember since 2004 that folks will be less enamored with the top picks and will definitely be interested in moving elsewhere with their KDS. I don't see many people going straight 1-15 when you look at how you can start out from the middle to late end of the draft. I might be wrong, but I have a feeling a lot of folks will have different views of where value lies in this year's early rounds and thus I believe KDS will be all over the board this year for baseball, very similar to what we just saw in football. [/QUOTE]I wrote it poorly and you wrote it better. That is exactly what I meant. Have a top three or top four pick just won't (shouldn't?) matter next year. If you have a top, middle, or late pick, there is going to be a lot of talent for you to pick from. No real drop off as you have hot 2011 players and EXCELLENT rebound candidates through two (if not three) rounds. So no matter how you KDS it and no matter what pick you get, I just cannot (yet) see any clear advantage.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Oct 20, 2011 6:15 am

Originally posted by ToddZ:

In the big picture sense, at the end of the day, to compete in the runs and RBI categories, you need to maximize your AB, which is part good luck with injuries and part diligence with roster management. So, looking into the Magic Eight Ball for 2012, how many AB are you targeting (if I may be so bold to ask)?

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Thu Oct 20, 2011 6:17 am

I think what is happening with the KDS is similar to what is happening with it in football and that is, you don't set it as much to get the player(s) you want as much anymore as you do to enact the strategy you want to deploy, specifically with respect to what tier of starting pitcher you want to make as your first pitcher.

[ October 20, 2011, 12:54 PM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Thu Oct 20, 2011 6:20 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

So, looking into the Magic Eight Ball for 2012, how many AB are you targeting (if I may be so bold to ask)? I don't believe in targeting a particular number, I believe in trying to get as many as you possibly can.

So maybe the answer is THE MOST IN MY LEAGUE.

[ October 20, 2011, 12:22 PM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

Hells Satans · Post by **Hells Satans** » Thu Oct 20, 2011 6:46 am

It's been happening gradually over the years, but I think this is the year you start to see alot more SPs taken in the first 4 rounds

Hells Satans · Post by **Hells Satans** » Thu Oct 20, 2011 6:48 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

quote:Originally posted by ToddZ:

I usually don't do this, but here are the links to a couple of columns I wrote for KFFL.com on this topic.

The premise was MY first round - not what I think the ADP will be or what I think the objective rankings will look like. If I was on the clock at each pick, who would I take assuming everyone already listed was taken.

HONORABLE MENTION

TOP 15 It's good to have opinions posted this early in the off-season Todd, so thanks for the link. So just to clarify, your Top 15 picks right now would be:

1. Ryan Braun

2. Albert Pujols

3. Miguel Cabrera

4. Matt Kemp

5. Jose Bautista

6. Joey Votto

7. Robinson Cano

8. Troy Tulowitzki

9. Adrian Gonzalez

10. Jacoby Ellsbury

11. Matt Holliday

12. Hanley Ramirez

13. Carlos Gonzalez

14. David Wright

15. Prince Fielder

Fair enough. I see a lot of injury-risk in 11-15 and I definitely have the Top 10 in a different order, but that's the beauty of this year's first round. Everyone will have a different view of things this year. Let's see how it plays out once the drafting season really gets going.

One quick question: As a Brewers' fan I love the Braun projection, but don't you think the absence of Fielder will seriously impact Braun's numbers? Right now I don't see Weeks being able to protect his bat. I do believe they will bring in one veteran free agent to add punch to this lineup, but there's no guarantee it will be enough to protect Braun. Heck, Braunie could even slide into the cleanup spot and replace Fielder's bat there, but that lack of protection scares me. Does it scare you? [/QUOTE]I think this is a good list. The one guy I think is missing is Justin Upton. He's the guy that could explode into the next level next year.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Thu Oct 20, 2011 6:52 am

Originally posted by Hells Satans:

I think this is a good list. The one guy I think is missing is Justin Upton. He's the guy that could explode into the next level next year. He made the honorable mention list with this as the quip:

Upton is going to be a hot commodity next season and rightfully so. Not only does he have the potential to end with first-round value, with a little luck in the batting average department, he could be top five or even top three overall. The problem is, his pedigree aside, Upton has only put it all together for one season and I need more of a track record to invest my valuable first-round pick. Specifically, I need to see Upton sustain his improved contact rate before he can be deemed reliable.

Hells Satans · Post by **Hells Satans** » Thu Oct 20, 2011 7:01 am

Originally posted by ToddZ:

quote:Originally posted by Hells Satans:

I think this is a good list. The one guy I think is missing is Justin Upton. He's the guy that could explode into the next level next year. He made the honorable mention list with this as the quip:

Upton is going to be a hot commodity next season and rightfully so. Not only does he have the potential to end with first-round value, with a little luck in the batting average department, he could be top five or even top three overall. The problem is, his pedigree aside, Upton has only put it all together for one season and I need more of a track record to invest my valuable first-round pick. Specifically, I need to see Upton sustain his improved contact rate before he can be deemed reliable. [/QUOTE]Definitely a risk, but his FB% has gradually increased the last 3 years. A small uptick in HR/FB and he's a 40/20 guy.

I actually think he's a safer pick then Wright, even adjusting for 3B scarcity. Pretty much everything about Wright is pointing the wrong way over the last 3 years: K rate, ISO, GB%, SB, the stadium, the quality of SP he has to face in the NL East. He's not a 1st rounder to me anymore.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Oct 20, 2011 9:36 am

Originally posted by ToddZ:

quote:Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

So, looking into the Magic Eight Ball for 2012, how many AB are you targeting (if I may be so bold to ask)? I don't believe in targeting a particular number, I believe in trying to get as many as you possibly can.

So maybe the answer is THE MOST IN MY LEAGUE. [/QUOTE]Yup. Did that in 2011 and Lindy still had more runs (21) and RBI's (31). He was fourth in AB and I had 157 more than him. Oh, well, sometimes you just can't beat quality.