ALL TIME DRAFT FINAL STANDINGS

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sat Nov 12, 2011 4:22 pm

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

I've been thinking about the blind rounds during drafts of this kind.

They are needed, otherwise team one, two, and three would have a big advantage at the end of the draft in knowing exactly the numbers they'd need to move ahead of others.

One way to get around the blind rounds (of which I would suggest only two for the next draft), is to draft 25 rounds. Then 'declare' to an outside party or trustee in secrecy who your two 'benched' players are.

Just a suggestion... I thought the blind rounds worked out well. [/QUOTE]Me too.

But there seems to be sentiment against them.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Nov 12, 2011 4:24 pm

Originally posted by ToddZ:

My guess is once the optimum strategy is fleshed out and I believe there is one, then spots 1-4 will be easily the most valuable and I am not sure 3RR will be enough to overcome the advantage.

Or, I could be wrong I don't agree. I think the only edge is wins and maybe a few extra innings. Teams make up the wins in the back end the bullpen with a blink of an eye.

Suburban Strugglers · Post by **Suburban Strugglers** » Sat Nov 12, 2011 4:24 pm

First of all thank you Todd for doing a amazing job with this draft, from the constant updates to the finish tonight. You earned your free entry.

Congrats to first and second place. Nice job Steve.

Early on I had said that I thought 3RR reversal was a must but I was way off. I think that this draft worked just as is. By far the best strategy did win and not the best draft slot.

I am 100 percent down to do this again so if that is going to happen then count me in. I think it would be interesting to see how we switch up strategy and how things would turn out running this back even if some of the owners are different.

I know for a fact that I made many mistakes in strategy and in picks. I for one will admit that I did not see this being so ERA and WHIP heavy. I really thought that having 4 starters with decent ERA and WHIP would help me a ton and that as the draft went on that others would have to take pitchers with higher ERA and WHIP and that they would fall back to me but I was wrong. The decision to takes tons of relievers with great ERA and WHIP was the right move and I did not see that coming.

Still even finishing 12th this was fun and I will do it again.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sat Nov 12, 2011 4:25 pm

Originally posted by ToddZ:

My guess is once the optimum strategy is fleshed out and I believe there is one, then spots 1-4 will be easily the most valuable and I am not sure 3RR will be enough to overcome the advantage.

Or, I could be wrong I just thought of a way to beat the idea I had in mind so now I am with the win from anywhere crowd.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sat Nov 12, 2011 4:25 pm

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by ToddZ:

My guess is once the optimum strategy is fleshed out and I believe there is one, then spots 1-4 will be easily the most valuable and I am not sure 3RR will be enough to overcome the advantage.

Or, I could be wrong I don't agree. I think the only edge is wins and maybe a few extra innings. Teams make up the wins in the back end the bullpen with a blink of an eye. [/QUOTE]I just mentioned above that I already retract my statement.

I do think there is an optimal hitting strategy but at least two different pitching routes, one which does not need a top pitcher.

Or you can start with pitching and find a hitting strategy to pair with it, but we all know pitching is more risky

[ November 12, 2011, 10:29 PM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

Suburban Strugglers · Post by **Suburban Strugglers** » Sat Nov 12, 2011 4:30 pm

I would say the one pick that I knew right after I made it was a mistake was taking Ron Guidry in the 4th round over Luis Tiant. At the time I was still just looking more at wins and it was clear that Tiant had a slightly better ERA and Ks and had a far better WHIP. Guidry only had one plus and that was 4 wins which you can get anywhere.

I kept hoping that Tiant would be there for me in the blind round with the 5th pick but he went 2nd in that first blind round.

I know we can all break down are teams but this is the move that stands out to me as just dumb.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Nov 12, 2011 4:32 pm

Originally posted by ToddZ:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by ToddZ:

My guess is once the optimum strategy is fleshed out and I believe there is one, then spots 1-4 will be easily the most valuable and I am not sure 3RR will be enough to overcome the advantage.

Or, I could be wrong I don't agree. I think the only edge is wins and maybe a few extra innings. Teams make up the wins in the back end the bullpen with a blink of an eye. [/QUOTE]I just mentioned above that I already retract my statement.

I do think there is an optimal hitting strategy but at least two different pitching routes, one which does not need a top pitcher.

Or you can start with pitching and find a hitting strategy to pair with it, but we all know pitching is more risky

[/QUOTE]I made a huge mistake in round two taking Coombs with a 1.028 whip. The 31 wins and 1.30 ERA were great, but I gave up way too much in whip at that point in the draft.

G@mblor · Post by **G@mblor** » Sat Nov 12, 2011 4:33 pm

Originally posted by ToddZ:

quote:Originally posted by ToddZ:

My guess is once the optimum strategy is fleshed out and I believe there is one, then spots 1-4 will be easily the most valuable and I am not sure 3RR will be enough to overcome the advantage.

Or, I could be wrong I just thought of a way to beat the idea I had in mind so now I am with the win from anywhere crowd. [/QUOTE]I feel like so much of who wins comes down to which strategy best fits the current draft. As an example we planned on doing very well in Era, Whip and Saves. We ended with 177 saves which, at the beginning of the draft, I would have guessed would get us 13+ points. If there had been a crazy wins run and not a crazy saves run it could have made a difference of at least 6 or 7 points in our whip and saves. Possibly that would have put us over the top. Steve's strategy worked best for this draft but his exact same team may not have won a draft that slanted towards different categories.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Nov 12, 2011 4:38 pm

Originally posted by G@mblor:

quote:Originally posted by ToddZ:

quote:Originally posted by ToddZ:

My guess is once the optimum strategy is fleshed out and I believe there is one, then spots 1-4 will be easily the most valuable and I am not sure 3RR will be enough to overcome the advantage.

Or, I could be wrong I just thought of a way to beat the idea I had in mind so now I am with the win from anywhere crowd. [/QUOTE]I feel like so much of who wins comes down to which strategy best fits the current draft. As an example we planned on doing very well in Era, Whip and Saves. We ended with 177 saves which, at the beginning of the draft, I would have guessed would get us 13+ points. If there had been a crazy wins run and not a crazy saves run it could have made a difference of at least 6 or 7 points in our whip and saves. Possibly that would have put us over the top. Steve's strategy worked best for this draft but his exact same team may not have won a draft that slanted towards different categories. [/QUOTE]I think if you get Felix you may have won.

Navel Lint · Post by **Navel Lint** » Sat Nov 12, 2011 4:39 pm

Thanks to Shawn for running this league.

Thanks to Todd for doing a great job with the tracker.

Thanks to Dan for running the blinds.

Congrats again to the winners.

I had a great time reading about the players we all took and learned a lot.

If invited, I’ll be back again to try and improve on my showing.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Nov 12, 2011 4:40 pm

Originally posted by Navel Lint:

Thanks to Shawn for running this league.

Thanks to Todd for doing a great job with the tracker.

Thanks to Dan for running the blinds.

Congrats again to the winners.

I had a great time reading about the players we all took and learned a lot.

If invited, I’ll be back again to try and improve on my showing. You will be much better in 2012 with Theo at your side.

Navel Lint · Post by **Navel Lint** » Sat Nov 12, 2011 4:41 pm

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by Navel Lint:

Thanks to Shawn for running this league.

Thanks to Todd for doing a great job with the tracker.

Thanks to Dan for running the blinds.

Congrats again to the winners.

I had a great time reading about the players we all took and learned a lot.

If invited, I’ll be back again to try and improve on my showing. You will be much better in 2012 with Theo at your side. [/QUOTE]

G@mblor · Post by **G@mblor** » Sat Nov 12, 2011 4:44 pm

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by G@mblor:

quote:Originally posted by ToddZ:

quote:Originally posted by ToddZ:

My guess is once the optimum strategy is fleshed out and I believe there is one, then spots 1-4 will be easily the most valuable and I am not sure 3RR will be enough to overcome the advantage.

Or, I could be wrong I just thought of a way to beat the idea I had in mind so now I am with the win from anywhere crowd. [/QUOTE]I feel like so much of who wins

comes down to which strategy best fits the current draft. As an example we planned on doing very well in Era, Whip and Saves. We ended with 177 saves which, at the beginning of the draft, I would have guessed would get us 13+ points. If there had been a crazy wins run and not a crazy saves run it could have made a difference of at least 6 or 7 points in our whip and saves.

Possibly that would have put us over the top. Steve's strategy worked best for this draft but his exact same team may not have won a draft that slanted towards different categories. [/QUOTE]I think if you get Felix you may have won. [/QUOTE]At the time we weren't sure if going for max saves had more value then protecting our era (which looked close at the time). It was possible the extra 14 saves we would have gotten would not have helped at all and we would have lost points in era by selecting Feliz. This was before the last couple of rounds of the closer run and I thought some teams would jump on wins to try and beat the saves heavy teams. Turned out I was wrong and those closers just kept going. We also had more than enough in era to win easily. Given the same choice I am not sure I would have done anything differently with the information we had but it turned out to be the exact wrong thing for us.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sat Nov 12, 2011 4:52 pm

Other than completely misusing Ty Cobb and having no strategy in general (my basic plan was to compete across the board, trying to stay ahead of those that were dumping cats) the biggest mistake I made was completely missing how many would limit innings and go for saves. I expected 7SP/2 RP to dominate with a few at 6SP/3RP.

OOPS!!!!!

Suburban Strugglers · Post by **Suburban Strugglers** » Sat Nov 12, 2011 4:54 pm

Todd that was the same exact issue I had. I just thought that it would be more like 7 to 2, hell I ended up being 5 to 4 and I did not think anyone would do that early on.

G@mblor · Post by **G@mblor** » Sat Nov 12, 2011 4:58 pm

Originally posted by ToddZ:

Other than completely misusing Ty Cobb and having no strategy in general (my basic plan was to compete across the board, trying to stay ahead of those that were dumping cats) the biggest mistake I made was completely missing how many would limit innings and go for saves. I expected 7SP/2 RP to dominate with a few at 6SP/3RP.

OOPS!!!!! Given the huge 2 category advantage Cobb gave to whoever drafted him I actually wanted to take him number 1 overall ahead of Ruth. I felt like you could get power at any time and getting an elite average and a bunch of steals early would have provided a big advantage. Seeing as we took Willie McCovey and his 45hr in the 23rd round I still think that path has some value. We will never know though, maybe next draft.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sat Nov 12, 2011 5:07 pm

Originally posted by G@mblor:

quote:Originally posted by ToddZ:

Other than completely misusing Ty Cobb and having no strategy in general (my basic plan was to compete across the board, trying to stay ahead of those that were dumping cats) the biggest mistake I made was completely missing how many would limit innings and go for saves. I expected 7SP/2 RP to dominate with a few at 6SP/3RP.

OOPS!!!!! Given the huge 2 category advantage Cobb gave to whoever drafted him I actually wanted to take him number 1 overall ahead of Ruth. I felt like you could get power at any time and getting an elite average and a bunch of steals early would have provided a big advantage. Seeing as we took Willie McCovey and his 45hr in the 23rd round I still think that path has some value. We will never know though, maybe next draft. [/QUOTE]That was the plan, but I was caught off guard early by some of the high HR/RBI seasons (McGwire, Hack, Luis G) going well before "my rankings" said they should go. At that point, I had the opportunity to veer off plan and failed to do so.

Plus, I broke my cardinal rule of drafting and that is FORCING myself into taking a certain profile player which is what you need to do with Cobb and I was blindsided and failed to get those players when I should have.

Glenneration X · Post by **Glenneration X** » Sat Nov 12, 2011 5:08 pm

Originally posted by ToddZ:

Other than completely misusing Ty Cobb and having no strategy in general (my basic plan was to compete across the board, trying to stay ahead of those that were dumping cats) the biggest mistake I made was completely missing how many would limit innings and go for saves. I expected 7SP/2 RP to dominate with a few at 6SP/3RP.

OOPS!!!!! The starter/reliever ratio in this draft was definately the most significant theme in determining the outcome. The fact that so many punted wins & K's made the punting of those categories a strategy where you didn't have to end up with one or two points by punting. All you had to do was stay ahead of the other punters and you could garner 6 or 7 points per category. If more chased wins & K's, I don't feel that strategy would have pervailed.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sat Nov 12, 2011 5:13 pm

I do think it is completely fascinating that the prevailing theory in the ATD was you have to dump something but in the NFBC Classic, the overriding perception is dumping is bad.

Not saying I now have changed my mind and will dump in the Main, just that I find the dynamic very interesting and do believe it teaches us something about game theory.

[ November 12, 2011, 11:13 PM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

Navel Lint · Post by **Navel Lint** » Sat Nov 12, 2011 5:14 pm

Originally posted by ToddZ:

Other than completely misusing Ty Cobb and having no strategy in general (my basic plan was to compete across the board, trying to stay ahead of those that were dumping cats) the biggest mistake I made was completely missing how many would limit innings and go for saves. I expected 7SP/2 RP to dominate with a few at 6SP/3RP.

OOPS!!!!! I thought the same thing about innings and saves. I way over valued K's as a result. I also thought that at least 5 or 6 teams would end with era's above 2.00. For that reason alone I thought S Koufax (2.04 - 382 K's) was a perfect first round pick :rolleyes:

As for hitting, I had no intent to dump categories. By the time I realized that I was behind the curve, I started hitting the counting stats without worrying about AVG........but it was too late.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Nov 12, 2011 5:21 pm

Originally posted by ToddZ:

I do think it is completely fascinating that the prevailing theory in the ATD was you have to dump something but in the NFBC Classic, the overriding perception is dumping is bad.

Not saying I now have changed my mind and will dump in the Main, just that I find the dynamic very interesting and do believe it teaches us something about game theory. You could dump four categories and still win. I think I have the four cat dump plan worked out in my head!

Navel Lint · Post by **Navel Lint** » Sat Nov 12, 2011 5:24 pm

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by ToddZ:

I do think it is completely fascinating that the prevailing theory in the ATD was you have to dump something but in the NFBC Classic, the overriding perception is dumping is bad.

Not saying I now have changed my mind and will dump in the Main, just that I find the dynamic very interesting and do believe it teaches us something about game theory. You could dump four categories and still win. I think I have the four cat dump plan worked out in my head! [/QUOTE]With everyone planning their dump strategy for next time, the solid across the board plan will be the way to go

Texas Connection · Post by **Texas Connection** » Sat Nov 12, 2011 5:50 pm

Count me in on the failure to evaluate pitching correctly. I had no idea era and ratio would be valued so much higher over the saves and wins. I figured in this format that a low total would win due to the fact you would have no injuries and all owners would be competitive and constantly adjusting. I put the winning number at 95. My strategy was to go for 48 points in hitting and pitching and punt 1.5 categorie in each. My guess was steals and saves would be the most likely to be thrown as they are most often thrown in most leagues. I was hoping to be the only one throwing my particular categories just like most of us. Team 3 was my nemesis and had the same offensive strategy I did. I drew the number 10 spot and felt like the categories to be thrown would depend on who got to me. My top 9 guys went in the top 9 and was upset that Koufax, my number 5 went just before me. I thought pitching was more important because I was worried about wins. Who knew? I really wanted piazza and/or pudge as I thought that was one of the biggest drop-offs in postiiton. Obviously many saw that coming. I ended up getting my first choice on every blind round which gave me mixed feelings. Dan kept congratulating me on getting my guy. How come nobody else wanted him was my normal feeling? On my last pick I was debating between a pure save guy and a save, win guy. I had 2 guys circled. The save guy Jeff Shaw and the win guy 1963 Ron Perranoski. My back up save guy was mark davis. I had Shaw and Perranoski circled and went with Shaw. It was extremely difficult to try and figure out what someone might do for me. It turns out I needed the wins more than the saves and I didn't think era and whip would matter for me. Perranoski would have won it for me. I know we all can do that on our teams. I think Brian was 4 rbis away from winning it. We can all probably look at one pick that was the difference. I would have bet that Nolan Ryan would have gone in this draft. Again I think like many my pitching rankings and even the season that owner's took was way off. Also, I hated in when several players got drafted that were not on my board and I looked at their numbers and said "how did i miss him?" Who else might I be missing?

G@mblor · Post by **G@mblor** » Sat Nov 12, 2011 6:07 pm

Originally posted by Navel Lint:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by ToddZ:

I do think it is completely fascinating that the prevailing theory in the ATD was you have to dump something but in the NFBC Classic, the overriding perception is dumping is bad.

Not saying I now have changed my mind and will dump in the Main, just that I find the dynamic very interesting and do believe it teaches us something about game theory. You could dump four categories and still win. I think I have the four cat dump plan worked out in my head! [/QUOTE]With everyone planning their dump strategy for next time, the solid across the board plan will be the way to go

[/QUOTE]Will be easier now that we have some category targets but I still think the blind rounds make it hard to pull off such a strategy. Hard to adjust with incomplete information.

G@mblor · Post by **G@mblor** » Sat Nov 12, 2011 6:14 pm

Who are some guys that people think should have been drafted and were not? I was surprised by Nolan Ryan for pitching. As far as hitters I was very suprised Sam Crawford (.378, 37sb,100+ rbis 100+runs) and Mike Sweeney (.333, 29hr,144 rbis) were not selected.