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Return of the Aces · Post by **Return of the Aces** » Sun Mar 26, 2006 2:22 am

Knacks, Papi and Reyes are solid selections. I really like Roy Oswalt in the 4th round.

I am curious about your strategy of taking 4 closers, with Billy Wagner drafted in Round 3 and your second starting pitcher, Er. Santana selected in Round 17. What was your draft plan?

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Sun Mar 26, 2006 4:09 pm

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

quote:Originally posted by Spyhunter:

quote:Originally posted by seefer:

Hey Shawn, great seeing you in Vegas. Good luck this year.

As far as who go whom for what, throw it down the chitter... it all depends on those 2 or 3 guys that make the difference... and INJURIES!!!

And I'd put a cool thousand $$ on CC's team I talked with RT and we feel our honor has been challenged We are willing to take on 1 more bet for who does better our team or CC's. Whoever offers us the best odds gets the bet. Chest? Seefer? you want to get in on this? Since you feel so strongly?

Spy [/QUOTE]Unfortunately my sources tell me it took an act of Congress to get you to pay last year so I will resist the urge. I hope you do well- it takes sacks to take on one of the best people in this contest. You have a lot of confidence in what I would consider a pretty mediocre team- go out and prove me wrong. [/QUOTE]? I paid all my bets, and only had to wait a day or two for some pay to come in which delayed things only a few days (well, and the transfer into Paypall added 3-4 days). So it wasn't hard at all. Though there was one individual who was such a strang pain in the butt, I paid him last just for being wierd the whole season.

Anyway, CC is a great player and perhaps he is psychic (seeing comeback of O Perez for example), but when I compare teams line by line, I feel like I have him at almost every postion except Catcher. My SPs should be better, my Closers are definitely better, and my offense overall should beat his (but of course I am more than a bit slanted in opinion).... Having said that, who knows where injuries, etc... will take us...

[ March 27, 2006, 08:43 PM: Message edited by: Spyhunter ]

Parnelli · Post by **Parnelli** » Sun Mar 26, 2006 6:51 pm

The first year of the NFBC I drafted D Ortiz in the fifth.I was told that was to high......lol He went in the 2nd the next year.Sometimes a reach pays off..Sometimes value sucks,just ask all the guys who drafted Bonds for his value last year...lol.....or Nomar 2 years ago

Rey · Post by **Rey** » Mon Mar 27, 2006 1:18 am

? I paid all my bets, and only had to wait a day or two for some pay to come in which delayed things only a few days (well, and the transfer into Paypall added 3-4 days). So it wasn't hard at all. Though there was one individual who was such a strang pain in the butt, I paid him last just for being wierd the whole season.

Anyway, CC is a great player and perhaps he is psychic (seeing comeback of O Perez for example), but when I compare teams line by line, I have him at almost every postion except Catcher. My SPs should be better, my Closers are definitely better, and my offense overall should beat his. Having said that, who knows where injuries, etc... will take us... [/QB]Not that anyone has asked me, but I see the CC vs. Spy debate as a sample of an age-old battle of fantasy baseball philosophies. Spy take a more traditional approach of recent past performance being a valid predictor of future performance. CC takes a more predictive position, banking on his ability to find value not as compared to other's opinions, but rather to actual performance.

To me, it's simply a difference between drafting based on this season's value vs. drafting for next seasons value. What do I mean? Spy has drafted a very good team based on THIS season's value. Crawford, Ramirez, Konerko, Lidge...All these guys had the best seasons of their careers last year. Their fantasy values have never been as high as they are now. They are ALL solid choices. Spy does have sleepers, and they are generally traditional sleepers (Felix, Hermida, Schilling, Andreson, Rolen). Big name rookies, big name veterans coming off injuries who can explode with big seasons. There are valid exceptions (Chacon, Liriano) that go against this grain. But generally, the team is built very much based on last season's performance, be it positiove or negative performance.

CC's strategy is completely different (and more in line with my own thinking). CC seem's to draft based on what he feel's player's values will be next year, as opposed to what their value is this year. Practically none of his core guys had "career" years last year (Berkman, Harden, Mauer, Blalock, Morneau...heck, almost everyone). They are all guys that, I'm sure, he suspects are on the upswings of their careers and will have higher value at this time next year than they do this year.

It's simply this. Guy's like Ramirez and Konerko are absolute studs...but one gets the feeling that next year, their "best case scenario" has them getting drafted exactly where they were drafted. For CC, guy's like Harden and Mauer don't have nearly the track record or security that Ramirez and Konerko provide, but they are both more likely to be 1st round picks than either Ramirez or Konerk do.

It comes down to a balance of philosophies. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

[ March 27, 2006, 07:20 AM: Message edited by: Rey ]

Hangtown · Post by **Hangtown** » Mon Mar 27, 2006 2:40 am

It will be interesting to see how it plays out. and Pays out!!!

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Mon Mar 27, 2006 2:57 am

nicely put Rey, except I believe that our strategies aren't as far apart as it may seem. For example Berkman was a pick I love and would have taken. While some of my players had great years (crawford, aramis, konerko) I believe they have continued upside. If aram can play an entire year or Crawford extends his power to 20 to 25 hr... And note that CC and I took several of the same players! So from my point of view the strategies aren't that different, I just took slightly less risk (and therefore less upside picks)

Regards, Spy

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Mar 27, 2006 3:29 am

I thought it was interesting to check out the Top 15 picks in the NFBC this year. Here are some simple facts about those first rounders this year:

1. Alex Rodriguez (1.12 ADP): A-Rod was picked first in 21 of those 24 leagues and never went lower than second. Albert Pujols (1.88 ADP) was the only other player picked first (3 times) and he never went lower than second.

3. Vladimir Guerrero (3.44 ADP): He was the consensus third overall pick and he never went lower than sixth.

4. Mark Teixeira (4.36 ADP): He went third in several leagues and also never went lower than sixth.

5. Carl Crawford (6.24 ADP): The wrist injury is a bit of a concern, but he went as high as third and never lower than ninth.

6. Derrek Lee (8.00 ADP): Very interesting here as he went as high as fifth and as low as 12th.

7. David Wright (8.52 ADP): Nobody moved up more this off-season than Wright, who went as high as fourth in the NFBC and not lower than 15th.

8. Manny Ramirez (8.72 ADP): He went as high as fifth and no lower than 14th.

9. Jason Bay (9.08 ADP): Here was another fast riser this off-season as he went as high as fifth and no lower than 13th.

10. Johan Santana (9.16): Some owners don’t like to take pitchers in the first round, so Santana had the biggest range among the first round picks. He went as high as third and as low as 21st.

11. Bobby Abreu (10.40 ADP): The stretches continue later in the first round as Abreu went as high as fourth and as low as 16th.

12. David Ortiz (11.80 ADP): He went as high as sixth and as low as 19th.

13. Miguel Cabrera (14.64 ADP): He went as high as sixth and as low as 23rd.

14. Chone Figgins (14.76 ADP): He was the darling of the end picks who grabbed power and speed with their first two picks, but he did go as high as sixth and as low as 23rd.

15. Jose Reyes (16.64 ADP): Reyes was another darling of the end picks as he went as high as 10th and as low as 23rd.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Mon Mar 27, 2006 3:45 am

Miguel Cabrera brings risks based on the Florida firesale, but whomever got him 23rd had to view it as Christmas in March!

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Mon Mar 27, 2006 5:08 am

I'll continue Greg's work here:

16. Chase Utley high:11 low:23

17. Carlos Beltran high:10 low:28

18. Miguel Tejada high:9 low:26

19. Michael Young high:7 low:27

20. Jimmy Rollins high:15 low:26

21. Ichiro Suzuki high:13 low:27

22. Alfonso Soriano high:16 low:28

23. Juan Pierre high:18 low:37

24. Todd Helton high:15 low:35

25. Derek Jeter high:19 low:36

26. Aramis Ramirez high:19 low:41

27. Travis Hafner high:16 low:44

28. Grady Sizemore high:16 low:46

29. Jake Peavy high:19 low:47

30. Victor Martinez high:22 low:42

DiamondKing · Post by **DiamondKing** » Mon Mar 27, 2006 10:03 am

I am the guy who picked up Cabrera with pick #23.That did not take any skill,all I had to do is say Miguel Cabrera and thank you.

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Mon Mar 27, 2006 10:18 am

Originally posted by Dave Clum:

I am the guy who picked up Cabrera with pick #23.That did not take any skill,all I had to do is say Miguel Cabrera and thank you. I got the same first two guys in the Ultimate 2 league (Derrek Lee and Miguel Cabrera). Best of luck to you...

Mr. LBN - Jeff Price · Post by **Mr. LBN - Jeff Price** » Mon Mar 27, 2006 10:24 am

[ March 27, 2006, 04:27 PM: Message edited by: Mr. LBN - Jeff Price ]

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Tue Mar 28, 2006 9:55 am

Originally posted by Dave Clum:

I am the guy who picked up Cabrera with pick #23.That did not take any skill,all I had to do is say Miguel Cabrera and thank you. Dave, there is no way to tell how this season is going to end, but you gotta love when it starts out right!