Winter Training

[CC's Desperados]

The Diamondbacks hitters didn’t hit too many homers in 2013, but their pitchers were pretty good at giving them up, allowing 176 on the year (most given up in the NL). Furthermore, their ERA and WHIP numbers were pretty mediocre, finishing 17th in MLB in ERA (3.94) and 16th in MLB in WHIP (1.30). During the offseason, they made a few additions to their pitching staff, trading for closer Addison Reed and signing starter Bronson Arroyo.

Click here to read my fantasy baseball player profiles of the Arizona Diamondbacks pitchers!

If you would like to see a preview of my player profiles, here is my analysis of Patrick Corbin and Trevor Cahill:

Patrick Corbin - Corbin was an impact backend starter in 2013, going 9-0 in his first 11 starts of the year with a 2.06 ERA. Patrick allowed 2 runs or less in 17 of his first 21 starts (2.24 ERA) before fading over the last 2 months of the year (2-6 with a 6.05 ERA). Corbin was dominant against LH pitching (.203). In a way, Patrick overachieved his minor league resume (3.78 ERA with 404 K’s in 430.7 innings). He has very good command (2.3) with a rising K rate (7.7), and his AFB (92.1) was stronger than his 2012 season (90.9). Corbin throws a slider as his #2 pitch, followed by a changeup. Overall, he only had one plus pitch in 2013 (slider – .132), which accounted for 129 of his K’s. Batters hit .329 against his changeup (.586 SLG %), .277 against his sinker, and .258 against his four seam fastball. His velocity was stronger in August and September than April and May, so his lack of success may have been due to him pressing as he started to fade. Earlier during his minor league career, it appeared his changeup had more upside than his slider. Corbin had success last year due to move velocity, an improved slider, and an elite first pitch strike %. I don’t think his early 2013 success is repeatable without further development of his changeup, so I’m expecting regression in his ERA and WHIP this year. His final stats will paint a better picture than 2014 value.

Trevor Cahill - Cahill looked like an improved pitcher over his first 9 starts (2.48 ERA), but his lack of command (28 walks in 58 innings – 4.3 walk rate) should have been a sign of future failure. Trevor was drilled in 6 of his next 7 starts (7.91 ERA) to crush fantasy players. As it turns out, Cahill had a hip issue that led to a shoulder problem (resulted in him missing 7 weeks of the season). When he returned, he allowed 2 runs or less in 7 of his 9 starts, but he did allow 26 walks in 48 innings (4.9 walk rate). His walk rate (4.0) was a career high, which led to a drop in his K rate (6.3). His AFB (89.3) was in line with his previous 2 seasons, but it did have a decline in velocity in May. His slider continues to gain value and it is now his #2 pitch, followed closely by his changeup and a curveball. Most of his trouble was against LH batters (.275). If you throw out his June (0-5 with 9.85 ERA), Trevor had an ERA under 3.22 in every other month of the season (2.80 ERA for those months). In 2010, Trevor posted an elite season (18-8 with a 2.97 ERA). Since then, he hasn’t been able to repeat his command. His arm has upside when/if he does ever throw more strikes. I liked him heading into 2013 as I thought he was trending upward, but maybe he just wasn’t healthy. Last year, he led the NL in wild pitches (17). His walk rate scares me to death, but his stuff is strong enough to make a huge step forward. I guess the key is a short leash in shallow leagues.

- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/02/27/201 ... jFH5n.dpuf

[CC's Desperados]

The Dodgers have become the Yankees of the west as they have been trying to buy their way to a championship over the past two seasons. After the first 72 games of the 2013 season, L.A. wasn’t exactly setting the world on fire. They were 12 games under .500, and there was talk that manager Don Mattingly was going to get his walking papers. They then caught fire, turning in a 62-28 record to close out the season and ended up winning the NL West by 11 games. Heading into the 2014 season, this team has enough talent to compete for a World Series title, but the big question mark for them will be the health of OF Matt Kemp.

Click here to read my 2014 fantasy baseball player profiles of the Los Angeles Dodgers batters!

Want to see a preview of my player profiles? Check out my analysis of Yasiel Puig:

Puig made the jump from AA to the majors last season and showed 30 HR power with 20 SB upside. Yasiel had a K rate (22.5%) that was below the league average, while his walk rate (8.3%) came in as league average. Puig crushed both RH (.312 with a .516 SLG %) and LH (.340 with a .583 SLG %) pitching. Puig also had a plus HR/FB rate (21.8%), but he was a GB hitter (50.2%). In addition, Yasiel had success hitting four seam fastballs (.324 – .533 SLG %), sinkers (.396 – .496 SLG %), and sliders (.327 – .636 SLG %). Overall, he hit .349 over his first 3 months in the majors with 13 HR’s, 31 RBI’s, and 10 SB’s in 298 at bats. His approach at the plate did show growth over the last 2 months of the year (10.9% walk rate and 20.9% K rate). Simply put, he is an elite talent with high upside across the board. However, he didn’t do a good job with runners on base (10% RBI rate). He is expected to bat leadoff for the Dodgers this season, and has a chance to score 120+ runs with solid HR’s and SB’s. His batting average may come in shorter than expected due to his K rate, but I expect him to improve in this area. He looks like one of the rare 5 tool players in the game. His only negative is his maturity, which leads to many bad decisions. Possible top 5 draft pick in 2015, so his ride is still on the uptick.

- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/03/01/201 ... izYcY.dpuf

[CC's Desperados]

After winning the World Series in 2010 and 2012, the Giants took a step back in 2013, finishing the season 3rd in the NL West with a record of 76-86. Scoring only 629 runs (21st in MLB), it was their first losing season since 2008. In addition, they finished 29th in the majors in HR’s (107), 25th in extra base hits (422) and tied for 22nd in stolen bases (67). While their offense has been short in 2 of the past 3 seasons, it has a chance to be much improved in 2014 if the slimmed down Pablo Sandoval can play at a high level and if Brandon Belt can take a step forward.

Click here to read my fantasy baseball player profiles of the San Francisco Giants batters!

Want to see what my player profiles are like? Check out my analysis of C Buster Posey:

Posey just wasn’t an elite catcher last year. Maybe it was just the lack of a supporting cast. His K rate (11.8%) is elite with a solid walk rate (10.1%), and he was a better hitter against LH pitching (.320 with a .497 SLG %). Over the first 3 months of the season, he was on a pace to repeat his 2013 success (.322 with 12 HR’s and 48 RBI’s in 276 at bats). Over the second half of the year, Posey faded off into the sunset (.262 with 3 HR’s and 24 RBI’s), and appeared to wear down. During the offseason, he has added 10 lbs. of muscle to help add length to his season. His HR/FB rate (10.0%) was a huge step down from 2012 (18.8%). Furthermore, Buster continues to be a GB hitter (47.3%). For 18 months, Posey posted elite numbers from the catching position, while his production in runs was short due to a weak back end of the Giants lineup. The 2014 team has enough talent to be a much better offensive team. Overall, he is an edge at the catcher position and gets added value by playing first base. If you believe in batters with high batting averages, Posey is an contender for the NL batting title with a 25/100 skill set.

- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/03/02/201 ... aJIin.dpuf

[CC's Desperados]

Since they play half of their games in the pitcher-friendly AT&T Park, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Giants rank near the top of the league in a bunch of pitching stat categories, especially with arms like Madison Bumgarner and Matt Cain. That wasn’t the case in 2013 as they finished 22nd in MLB in ERA (4.00), 19th in WHIP (1.31) and 22nd in quality starts (80). It was the second straight year that their pitching has regressed after finishing 1st in MLB in ERA in 2010 and 2nd in 2011. If they want to improve in 2014, bounce back years are a necessity for both Tim Lincecum and the aforementioned Cain. Despite having a 4.78 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP over the past two seasons, Lincecum signed a 2-year, $35 million contract in the offseason to remain in the Bay Area.

Click here to read my 2014 fantasy baseball player profiles of the San Francisco Giants pitchers!

If you would like to see a preview of my player profiles, check out my analysis of CL Sergio Romo:

Romo has an intriguing skill set. He has had elite command (1.8) and a plus K rate (10.3) during his career, but his K rate (8.7) was a career low in 2013. Opposing batters are only hitting .197 against him during his career. While Sergio was dominant against RH batters (.183), he lost value against lefties (.279). Romo has allowed 16 of his career 22 HR’s to righties. His AFB (87.7) tied his career low, while he throws a slider as his #1 pitch (49.2% of the time) with an occasional changeup (also added a cutter in 2013). His GB rate (40.7%) dropped by over 8% points in one season. He has a plus arm, but he won’t pitch plus innings for a reliever which limits his upside in K’s. His declining fastball is also a concern, but he has the skill set to close due to a plus, plus slider. He has battled an elbow injury in the past and his decline in K’s is a slight concern. Overall, solid 2nd tier upside with some injury risk.

- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/03/03/201 ... 84fbd.dpuf

[CC's Desperados]

Over the past two years, scoutPRO.com has been working on baseball and football tools to help fantasy players make better decisions during drafts and in season. Last year, we developed the scoutEDGE score for baseball. These scores will not only help fantasy players see the values at different positions, it will allow them a way to compare players at different positions.

Our scoutEDGE score is built for 12-team, 5 by 5 Roto leagues with once a week pitching moves. In the future, we will modify the options for 10-team and 15-team leagues, and may even add bi-weekly pitching move leagues.

The toughest part for any fantasy player to understand is draft ranking or cheat sheets. This is due to the underlying information behind each player's player profile. At any position in baseball, I may only like a handful of players. When I rank them, I can't leave players I don't like off of the cheat sheet, and it wouldn't be fair to rank them poorly just based on my opinion.

In today's fantasy baseball market, fantasy players have the ability to see ADP's (average draft position). ADP's give fantasy players a feel for a player's value in the open market. This is great tool, but a fantasy player has to understand the value of the information. ADP's from mock drafts have less value as many drafts aren't completed by a full roster of owners, and many drafters may lose interest at some point during the drafts. I believe the best information in fantasy baseball comes from owners playing for real money or owners competing in a real league that will be played out during the season.

Our scoutEDGE score can work with any projections to deliver results. This season, we did all the research on all 30 baseball teams. We then did our team profiles for each team's projections. With this information, we delivered our scoutPRO rankings based on the scoutEDGE scores.

What's is the scoutEDGE score? This is a score that gives a fantasy player a feel for a player's value based on his projections or even past results. A player's scoutEDGE score shows a fantasy player how much a player impacts a fantasy team's roster when he is drafted. The theory is built on each team drafting average player stats for all remaining positions. So if you drafted Mike Trout in 2013 (.323 with 109 runs, 27 HR's, 97 RBI, and 33 SB's in 586 at bats), he finished with a scoutEDGE score of +11.10. By drafting him, you gained 11.10 points in the standings in the 5 offensive categories if you were able to draft average player stats for your other 13 offensive positions.

The rest of this article can be seen on the below link:

https://www.scoutpro.com/scoutedge-fant ... r-rankings

[Edwards Kings]

Shawn,

Just picked up your scoutPRO fantasy baseball draft kit. I have not yet had time to dissect it like you know I will, but it looks very good and has, like what you have already shared here, great insights. I especially like the team-by-team, player-by-player profiles.

Nice job. See you in Vegas.

[Quahogs]

I just purchased this myself and it's well worth the $9.99 price tag. Great in depth capsules with a fantasy slant. Helps that it's coming from the top fantasy player out there too. Would help that the link is here but if anyone wants it they can just shoot me their email here and I can forward it.