Live Chat With Shawn Childs: Friday, 8:30 pm ET

CC's Desperados
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Re: Live Chat With Shawn Childs: Friday, 8:30 pm ET

Post by CC's Desperados » Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:13 pm

CraigW wrote:Two stars of 2013 that were busts in 2014, Chris Davis and Jason Kipnis, what do you expect from both of them? Either return to fantasy glory?
Both should rebound. I expect Davis to find his power stroke, but his batting average will have plenty of risk. I have a tough time believing he will ever beat his 2013 season. Possible 40 HR's for sure.

Kipnis should play well this year, but his upside may not be as high as we thought going into 2014. Nice steady middle infielder with an edge skill set.

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Re: Live Chat With Shawn Childs: Friday, 8:30 pm ET

Post by CC's Desperados » Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:21 pm

Chest Rockwell wrote:Can you give some suggestions on how you budget heading in to an auction? How much for pitching and hitting?

Within each sub category do you have an idea how many dollar players you want? What you want to spend on your big money core players?
In a mixed auction, I would start with an 180/80 split. The auction will dictate any possible values on either side. If you win your key players for less money than expected, you can then shift the extra dollars to another part of your team.

I don't think about category spending. I have no problem buying three core batters for $90 to $100 if they fit my plan. I wouldn't just spend to spend. It has to be the key players you want. I like to buy a couple of aces, but you have to be careful of painting yourself in a corner.

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Re: Live Chat With Shawn Childs: Friday, 8:30 pm ET

Post by CC's Desperados » Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:23 pm

EWeaver wrote:Sally will be a stud in the Mexican league for years to come.
Thanks, Three Pack

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Re: Live Chat With Shawn Childs: Friday, 8:30 pm ET

Post by CC's Desperados » Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:28 pm

whale4evr wrote:Cole or Wheeler?
Why one or the other? They go far enough apart in the draft where you could own both. I saw Cole go in the 4th round of a DC I did last month. Now, there is some love.

Cole:

Cole had some regression in 2014. His walk rate (2.6) moved backwards while remaining above his minor league resume (3.1). His K rate (9.0) moved into a nice area. Gerrit was placed on the DL in June with a sore right shoulder, which led to 3 missed weeks. After 2 starts with Pittsburgh, Cole was back on the DL for 6 weeks with an oblique injury. He has a career 19-11 record in the minors with a 2.77 ERA with 215 K's in 237.3 innings. His AFB (95.5) is a huge edge. His curveball moved to his #2 pitch followed by a slider and changeup. Gerrit was solid in April (3.38 ERA with a low K rate {6.9}). Cole struggled over his next 8 starts (4.62 ERA). His upside value really started to show in September when his command made a huge step forward (6 walks in 39.3 innings - 1.4 walk rate). This led to a plus K rate (10.3). Electric arm with ace upside. Sub 3.00 ERA with close to 200 K's. Gerrit is still a year away from be a work horse arm, which tempers my expectations in strikeouts. If you are cheating your ace, he should be one of your top targets.

Cole has the edge for sure. I like Wheeler as well. I posted my feelings on him earlier.

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Re: Live Chat With Shawn Childs: Friday, 8:30 pm ET

Post by CC's Desperados » Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:28 pm

ALL-IN JD wrote:Shawn,

Yes/No for over 10 saves this year:

Neshek
Gregerson
A. Miller
C. Janssen
A. Sanchez
Boxberger
Giles
Axford
Clippard
Romo
Combined - Yes

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rockitsauce
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Re: Live Chat With Shawn Childs: Friday, 8:30 pm ET

Post by rockitsauce » Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:30 pm

CC's Desperados wrote:
The season long games give you more bang for your buck plus skill is a bigger factor.

Fanduel has reached a high level with DraftKings making them push every dollar back into the game to remain the King of the Hill.

There is no doubt daily fantasy football is a great game. If your season long teams fail early, you still have plenty of options to have skin in the game. What's better than a chance to win $1,000,000 on a Sunday for $27? The big stacks have a huge advantage, but the low dollars can still beat them in a big field with a full slate of games.

Daily baseball just burns you out. It's too much work. Both Fandual and DraftKings haven't figured out how to create a football type of experience at a low dollar amount in baseball. There isn't enough time between the start of games plus the release of lineups to fill these huge fields. They don't have enough low volume players to support the game so they rely on the churn of their high dollar players who are trying earn a low % until they pop a big win.

DraftKings is really pushing the envelop of prizes to build revenue so they can get one more round of money. Both sites have a couple of years to become profitable (Fanduel is making money now I believe) before taking on massive losses if they drop back the overall prizes.

Any player that leave the season long games will be back in the future. I'm not sure about next generation as they started their fantasy career in the fast lane.

If you really think about it, the season long games in baseball may have an underlying vehicle with more upside if you structure an "in between game" properly.
Shawn, you know I love ya, (like the big ginger brother I never had :mrgreen:) but you are straight out your goddamn mind if you think you get more bang/buck in season action over DFS.

And football is great, but baseball is too much work :roll:

wtf happened to the HOF'er :twisted: You'll write 3-4 paragraphs about EVERY friggin guy who might get a cup a coffee in the Show this yr, but an hour to put a l/u together at night is TOO much work :lol:

Let me just say that YOU not in a GPP against me is a WIN for me. Thanks, seriously. Matter of fact tell cheeseisgood to stay out of my shit too. There's far more lucrative GPP's for guys like him in the $535 range ;)

Give me all the deadbetters :mrgreen:
Always be closing.

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Re: Live Chat With Shawn Childs: Friday, 8:30 pm ET

Post by CC's Desperados » Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:36 pm

glenlake22 wrote:Hi Shawn

Dickerson or Springer? Or both?
I like Springer, but he is going awfully high for his batting average risk plus we need to see him run. If you like Springer, you should plan for his possible failure in average. Dickerson seems more stable, but he has less upside.

Real tough call.

Dickerson struggled to get regular at bats (30) in April while having some success (.333 with 2 HR's and 3 RBI). His production and a couple of injuries led to him getting more at bats at the season went on. Over the first 3 months, Corey hit .342 with 10 HR's and 33 RBI in 178 at bats). He crushed righties (.328 with a .606 SLG %) while not being dead in the water against LH pitching (.253 with 3 HR's and 14 RBI in 91 at bats). Dickerson continued to play well over the 2nd half of the year (.291 with 14 HR's and 43 RBI in 258 at bats). His K rate (21.1 %) showed more upside in the minors (17.9 %) while his walk rate (7.7 %) is just below league average. His HR/FB rate (19.6 %) was in an elite area. Corey hit .323 in his minor league career with 79 HR's, 291 RBI, and 51 SB's in 1559 at bats. His AVH (1.816) is rising with an elite contact batting average (.406). His run rate (43 %) has been impressive in the last 2 years. His bat was also much better at home (.363 with a .684 SLG %). This season he is getting a ton of respects in fantasy drafts. He does have some playing time risk against lefties with Stubbs still on the roster. With 550 at bats, he has 30/100 upside with a .300+ batting average with some growth in his strikeouts. Last year he hit .408 while batting 2nd in the batting order.

With a full season of at bats, Springer was on pace for 90 runs, 40 HR's, 102 RBI, and 228 K's. His K rate (33.0 %) was off the chart while showing some ability to take walks (11.3 %). George only hit .194 against lefties (.335 in his minor league career). After a slow start in April (.182 with 19 K's in 61 at bats), Springer crushed the ball in May (10 HR's, 25 RBI, and a .647 SLG %). His K rate was still 30.1 % in his best month. Over his next month and half, pitchers gave him less pitches to drive, which led to 59 K's in 167 at bats (35.3 %) with 10 HR's and 22 RBI. His season ended with a quad/knee injury. His HR/FB rate (27.8 %) was massive. This supports his 40 HR upside. Over the previous 2 seasons in the minors, George hit well over .400 when he made contact. That number dropped to .376 last year. His 200 K ability will really limit his upside in batting average. Springer's AVH (2.029) is trending upward. Last year he really didn't run, which a big part of his minor league resume. In the minors, he hit .302 with 65 HR's and 207 RBI, and 87 SB's in 1087 at bats. His K rate was 26.4 %. Excellent shot at 35+ HR's with 20+ SB's with a sub .250 batting average. If his K rate improves and his contact batting average approaches his minor league career, we could have Giancarlo Stanton with speed.

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Re: Live Chat With Shawn Childs: Friday, 8:30 pm ET

Post by CC's Desperados » Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:39 pm

glenlake22 wrote:Do you envision a change in category structure ever catching on in the NFBC? Over the years I've suggested replacing AVG with OBP and HR with TB. Wins of course is the most frustrating of them all but a good replacement category is tough to find. What are your thoughts on this?
I'm fine with batting average. I think some people want OBP % so they could possibly have an edge in knowledge. If a player walks more, you are rewarded with more run chances. I don't see a need to change the game.

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Re: Live Chat With Shawn Childs: Friday, 8:30 pm ET

Post by COZ » Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:41 pm

This is more of a philosophical question....I think one of my biggest weaknesses in Fantasy Baseball is either bailing on guy too quick, but more specifically, for me, I hang on to guys too long and try to exercise "excruciating patience," so as to not eat their crappy games and then bench said player once his inevitable "hot streak" comes. So I end up just sticking with my originally drafted players expecting the tide turn. While obviously this is a player to player decision, for you, specifically, what things do you look at to decide you've had enough of such 'n such player and dump him, and when do you decide to ride out the slumps? I'm trying to improve my in-season management and feel I have no sense when to hold or when to fold on a player. Thoughts on in-season management and slumping players? A good example of this would be Dan Uggla last year...

COZ
Last edited by COZ on Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:44 pm, edited 2 times in total.
COZ

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Re: Live Chat With Shawn Childs: Friday, 8:30 pm ET

Post by CC's Desperados » Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:41 pm

glenlake22 wrote:since we're talking bowling....I'm a bowler and do not use my thumbhole. Don't do it quite as well as belamonte but do it nonetheless.
Today's lanes are set up for the high rev players so no thumb is an edge if you repeat your delivery.

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Re: Live Chat With Shawn Childs: Friday, 8:30 pm ET

Post by CC's Desperados » Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:54 pm

COZ wrote:This is more of a philosophical question....I think one of my biggest weaknesses in Fantasy Baseball is either bailing on guy too quick, but more specifically, for me, I hang on to guys too long and try to exercise "excruciating patience," so as to not eat their crappy games and then bench said player once his inevitable "hot streak" comes. So I end up just sticking with my originally drafted players expecting the tide turn. While obviously this is a player to player decision, for you, specifically, what things do you look at to decide you've had enough of such 'n such player and dump him, and when do you decide to ride out the slumps? I'm trying to improve my in-season management and feel I have no sense when to hold or when to fold on a player. Thoughts on in-season management and slumping players? A good example of this would be Dan Uggla last year...

COZ
In the 15 team game, you are really stuck with your draft decisions. You never want to drop the guy who is going to be the best guy on the waiver wire the next week. Jupinka is much better than I on the churn. I guess the best approach is seeing how they are controlling the strike zone. If pitcher is walking too many batters, it may be time to take him behind the wood shed. Last year I picked up Bauer and Nelson and those two turds were beat by the likes of the Little League fastball throwing Chris Young and Honey I ate my Kids Colon.

I would guess some of your failure were tied to the old juicers that didn't bounce back last year. It may be time to turn the page for next generation of players.

I'm struggling with the same issues.

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Re: Live Chat With Shawn Childs: Friday, 8:30 pm ET

Post by CC's Desperados » Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:57 pm

ALL-IN JD wrote:Shawn,

Yes/No for over 10 saves this year:

Neshek
Gregerson
A. Miller
C. Janssen
A. Sanchez
Boxberger
Giles
Axford
Clippard
Romo
Neshek - under
Gregerson - over
A. Miller - under
C. Janssen - under
A. Sanchez - over
Boxberger - over
Giles - over
Axford - over
Clippard - under
Romo - over

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Re: Live Chat With Shawn Childs: Friday, 8:30 pm ET

Post by CC's Desperados » Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:59 pm

rockitsauce wrote:
Shawn, you know I love ya, (like the big ginger brother I never had :mrgreen:) but you are straight out your goddamn mind if you think you get more bang/buck in season action over DFS.

And football is great, but baseball is too much work :roll:

wtf happened to the HOF'er :twisted: You'll write 3-4 paragraphs about EVERY friggin guy who might get a cup a coffee in the Show this yr, but an hour to put a l/u together at night is TOO much work :lol:

Let me just say that YOU not in a GPP against me is a WIN for me. Thanks, seriously. Matter of fact tell cheeseisgood to stay out of my shit too. There's far more lucrative GPP's for guys like him in the $535 range ;)

Give me all the deadbetters :mrgreen:
You can't compete with an hour of research in the daily games.

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Re: Live Chat With Shawn Childs: Friday, 8:30 pm ET

Post by rockitsauce » Fri Feb 20, 2015 10:44 pm

CC's Desperados wrote:
You can't compete with an hour of research in the daily games.
I can't argue w/ that....mostly true. However I set a prelim l/u every nt before I go to bed & then edit later the next day based on latest info. I'm glad I don't know how much $ I've cost myself by not sticking w/ some of those early l/u's. Tonight for example I took out Luc Mbah a Moute and he promptly went out there and crushed it...LIKE I KNEW HE WOULD :evil:

I think if you aren't on the grind EVERY DAY than an hour of research would not be enough for a person not used to the comp. If you are doing this daily than perhaps you could afford to have a day here & there where your research was not as much as you'd normally like.

btw, what was the temp up there today :D :twisted:
Always be closing.

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Re: Live Chat With Shawn Childs: Friday, 8:30 pm ET

Post by CC's Desperados » Fri Feb 20, 2015 10:51 pm

rockitsauce wrote:
CC's Desperados wrote:
You can't compete with an hour of research in the daily games.
I can't argue w/ that....mostly true. However I set a prelim l/u every nt before I go to bed & then edit later the next day based on latest info. I'm glad I don't know how much $ I've cost myself by not sticking w/ some of those early l/u's. Tonight for example I took out Luc Mbah a Moute and he promptly went out there and crushed it...LIKE I KNEW HE WOULD :evil:

I think if you aren't on the grind EVERY DAY than an hour of research would not be enough for a person not used to the comp. If you are doing this daily than perhaps you could afford to have a day here & there where your research was not as much as you'd normally like.

btw, what was the temp up there today :D :twisted:
3 feet below zero

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Re: Live Chat With Shawn Childs: Friday, 8:30 pm ET

Post by rockitsauce » Fri Feb 20, 2015 11:10 pm

Will you & Greg be driving to Vegas thru the desert like these guys ?
Gregandshawn.jpg
my turn to drive Shawn !
Gregandshawn.jpg (11.89 KiB) Viewed 6209 times
Always be closing.

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Re: Live Chat With Shawn Childs: Friday, 8:30 pm ET

Post by Greg Ambrosius » Sat Feb 21, 2015 2:34 pm

rockitsauce wrote:Will you & Greg be driving to Vegas thru the desert like these guys ?
Gregandshawn.jpg
Not a chance. We bum a free ride whenever we can. By the way, we need a ride to the March 6th 1 pm game!! 8-)
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Re: Live Chat With Shawn Childs: Friday, 8:30 pm ET

Post by Greg Ambrosius » Sat Feb 21, 2015 2:36 pm

Shawn, thanks so much for doing this Live Chat last night. As expected, your answers were as thorough as could be and as strong as they could be. You're the best. Great job and I know a lot of guys enjoyed your insights. Thanks.

I even learned something: Belmonte really sticks his fingers in the holes? I didn't know that. Thanks. ;)
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