Edwards Kings 2015 Main Event Blog

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Edwards Kings
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Re: Edwards Kings 2015 Main Event Blog

Post by Edwards Kings » Mon Jun 22, 2015 1:28 pm

Up to my ass in alligators at work and will be on my way to the airport once again in a few hours. Just not able to take the time to write too much though maybe later in the week.

Let's just say as John Lemke appears to be running away with it right now, I am running the other way. Flat bats, blow-ups, and ONE WIN FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK...ridiculous. I certainly had some ugly starts, but I had six starts with a combined 2.605 ERA, 1.105 WHIP, a 5:1 K/BB ratio, and nearly a strikeout per IP. I should have had more than one win last week.

Yeah, yeah...I know...like a little cheese with that whine?

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Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Re: Edwards Kings 2015 Main Event Blog

Post by Bronx Yankees » Tue Jun 23, 2015 9:14 pm

I hear you, Wayne. I find wins to be the most frustrating roto category. Saves can be hugely frustrating, especially if your closer is not getting opportunities. The constant turnover in roles also is a bitch. But, when your closer gets a save opportunity, it's largely in his hands to save or blow. With wins, however, so much depends on others. I have Zack Greinke on a bunch of teams, including a Main Event team. I was listening to tonight's Dodgers-Cubs game (0-0 in the 10th inning last time I checked). One of the announcers noted when Greinke was removed that tonight was his ninth consecutive start without a win. His ERA in those nine starts? Under 2.00! With even decent luck, Greinke owners should have 3-5 additional wins. It's like the Dodgers forget how to hit when he's pitching. Argh! Hang in there. I'm enjoying the blog.

Mike
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Re: Edwards Kings 2015 Main Event Blog

Post by ToddZ » Fri Jun 26, 2015 10:55 am

Edwards Kings wrote:Todd Zola or Dan Kenyon may have this number. I do not. How many games started should a pitcher win when they give up 2 ER or less?
Using the Bill James Pythagorean Theorem to estimate winning percentage....

2 runs should win 81 percent of decisions
2.25 runs should win 77 percent of decisions
2.5 runs should win 73 percent of decisions

This is using the current average runs per game of 4.15.
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Re: Edwards Kings 2015 Main Event Blog

Post by Edwards Kings » Sat Jul 04, 2015 10:58 am

Four wins already this week...I had two guys pitch well last night...and actually WIN (of course they gave up 0 earned runs)...and my other two wins were the first two I have gotten this year when a pitcher has given up more than three runs (four each)...break through? Time to dance?

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Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Re: Edwards Kings 2015 Main Event Blog

Post by headhunters » Sat Jul 04, 2015 11:22 am

3 things- it could be worse- you could own strasburg! i mean- what a complete wuss. i hope they separate him and sherzer in the rotation like 2 lefties because the manager may confuse the stud from the cry baby and take scherzer out in the 5th by accident. second- you want wins? next year don't draft pitchers on teams that suck on offense like seattle sd etc , or ANNOUNCE they aren't really gonna try- like atlanta. don't draft pitchers that can't get past the 5th inning- like fiers- who i own also- or that baby strasburg. last- draft mark buerle- and just realize by watching him that wins aren't just "luck" or " or out of a pitchers control." good luck the rest of the way- and pray scooter gennet can keep up with correa or you will wish you dipped into those free agent $- that aren't real money- and bought him.

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Re: Edwards Kings 2015 Main Event Blog

Post by Edwards Kings » Sat Jul 04, 2015 4:13 pm

headhunters wrote:3 things- it could be worse- you could own strasburg! i mean- what a complete wuss. i hope they separate him and sherzer in the rotation like 2 lefties because the manager may confuse the stud from the cry baby and take scherzer out in the 5th by accident. second- you want wins? next year don't draft pitchers on teams that suck on offense like seattle sd etc , or ANNOUNCE they aren't really gonna try- like atlanta. don't draft pitchers that can't get past the 5th inning- like fiers- who i own also- or that baby strasburg. last- draft mark buerle- and just realize by watching him that wins aren't just "luck" or " or out of a pitchers control." good luck the rest of the way- and pray scooter gennet can keep up with correa or you will wish you dipped into those free agent $- that aren't real money- and bought him.
Sorry about Strasburg. I was very high on him and hoping I could get him. This season just surprises me. I admit I was wrong about how good Milwaukee would be this year. Surprises me. And don't go ranking on my Braves. Still hanging around .500 ball so that is no excuse. Mark Buehrle is amazing, but Childs throws more strikes in a season than Buehrle does.

How is the sailing?
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
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Re: Edwards Kings 2015 Main Event Blog

Post by Edwards Kings » Sun Jul 12, 2015 4:46 pm

Miss me?

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Well I have missed you...well not really you...most of you are kind of homey....but you as in this contest and baseball. My nutz have been in a vice for some time and maybe someday I can share. Let's just say work has been using my testicles as a speed bag...

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I have kept up with my team and have slipped. I still cannot buy a enough wins and injuries, especially to my OF (Aoki, Holliday) and my MI is still weak. Besides wins, I am slipping in speed. I still have a rough time ahead (damn real world), but I hope to have a more regular blog with my normal, long winded self back soon as I make my run to the top of the stack again. Anyway, I am still punching...

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Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Re: Edwards Kings 2015 Main Event Blog

Post by Edwards Kings » Mon Jul 20, 2015 8:52 am

TIMBER!

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What a sickening feeling it is when your team is dropping like a cheap pair of sock. Now I am having to play catch-up!

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Funny thing is, I am being hurt by things I did not expect. But first, the good. Most of my counting stats are still doing well or in range. As we leave the short stub period that is the ASB, I have 14.0 points in HR (five back from the lead), 14.0 points in RBI (six back) and 14.0 points in Runs (nine back). Right now HR and RBI are a two horse race as I am 17 and 31 up from third place respectively. Runs are tighter as I am only 10 up over the next two places. Since Aoki went down, I have only had one week in the last six where I got more than four stolen bases. That puts me down to mid-pack with 7.0 point and about 12 SB off the pace I wanted to set for myself. One area that is not a surprise is my BA which is a challenge right now, but thankfully it is also a challenge for others. My anemic .2619 BA has me at 9.0 points, but to get the minimum number of points I need in the overall, I need to get closer to the .2682 range (or short 27 hits over the previous 15 periods or two whopping hits a week).

SB can be solidified with luck. First, with the unfortunate injury to Alex Gordon, I picked up Judy-du-jour Jarrod Dyson. He can do little else but steal bases (12 this year in 113 AB with only 1 CS). Given my position in the power categories (HR/RBI), I can afford him more than I can afford to lose any more ground in SB. Second, Aoki is on track to return to the Giants' before the end of July after only a few minor league rehab games. Problem is his leg is at “80%”. How can I really rely on him to steal bases? It would be nice if Trout and Dozier stole a few more. When Gordon gets back, assuming Dyson hasn’t already lost his job, I will be back to square one.

I think my BA problem is indicative of another problem. I have some serious holes I have to fill or I will not only lose ground here, but my HR/RBI/R core could evaporate. Trumbo has flopped in Seattle. Mercer going down may be the only thing that keeps Alvarez playing (at least until the Pirates work a trade). Galvis/Cabrera nor Gennett/Gyorko are really replacement level at SS and MI. How will Holliday play post-injury? Looks like I will constantly be in the hunt for speed, middle infielders and, surprising to me, an outfielder or two which basically means I am in on nearly every position reflected on my roster.

Pitching is what is hurting me the most right now and given the investment I made, I am surprised. The good is I lead my league in K’s (though two teams are one good week from knocking me off my throne) and I have solidified my Save situation for now (i.e. not dropping with a respectable 9.0 points right now and given my relative strength in K’s could possible afford going with three closers if I need to accepting of course I have to find a third closer). My Wins situation has been my whine of the month and nothing has changes. I am in last place. What is killing me know are all too frequent blow-ups. Hamels is said to be a basket case waiting to be traded and has gotten shelled twice in a row. Ordorizzi has been ugly coming off the DL. Teheran has been anything but stable. As such, my ERA (8.0; 3.661) and WHIP (9.0; 1.239) has suffered. I need to climb back to the 3.400/1.184 range. And I am probably going to have to make with the pitchers I have because the streaming options are as dangerous as Godzilla with a hangnail.

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I have the funds, compared to most in my league, to get whomever I want in the FA pool. Whomever I want is the key. Last week, I saw nothing better than what I have, so I did not place a bid. Most in my league felt likewise as the largest bid was $13. The shelves are bare but drinking is an option...

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I am barely in second place in my league falling back from challenging for first. To reverse that trend there is not much new in the toolbox. I will play match-ups, maximize AB and IP, but other than that, my team, win or lose, is on the field. The end of July trades, such that they will be, cannot get here soon enough because I hope for a few players to break loose.

We shall see...
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Re: Edwards Kings 2015 Main Event Blog

Post by Edwards Kings » Tue Jul 21, 2015 8:32 am

In case you were wondering where I disappeared to over the last several weeks....

http://www.wsj.com/articles/kkrs-first- ... 1437425319

In the "quiet-period" now, so I cannot comment further. Needless to say this has been one of those fun stretches of real life that sure has taken a lot of time away from more important aspects of our life....like fantasy baseball.

anyway...I been busy...

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Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Re: Edwards Kings 2015 Main Event Blog

Post by Edwards Kings » Mon Jul 27, 2015 9:06 am

Went down to see my Dad this weekend who still lives in that cosmopolitan hotspot of Effingham County Georgia. Nice place if you like trees, sand gnats (actually, the sand gnat is the name used by the Savannah minor league team, at least for a little while longer as I just learned the team is moving to Columbia SC who promised them a new stadium), and no wireless service (two things my Dad will never do…fly in an airplane or have internet service). My Dad just turned 83 this July (nice guy…played second base on his Clyo High School baseball team) and we watched a lot of baseball. Followed Hamels no-hitter, Shelby Millers great start (lost 1-0 of course), the trade of Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson, and Glen Perkins meltdown the old-fashioned way (reading the scroll at the bottom of the screen). Anyway, by the time I got back to beautiful Duluth Georgia, I was ready to get caught up. While reading in, had a baseball ESPN recap program on and I had a gut shot nearly as bad as learning we would have a second President Obama administration. They showed about a dozen times from several angles Mike Trout rolling his wrist yesterday. You know the scene…the glove pops off…the grimace…the shaking the wrist…the trainer trot. For a moment, it felt like the Hindenburg was going off behind my eyes.

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Fortunately the damage appears less permanent than the debacle in November 2012 as Trout went on to not only stay in the game, but hit his second homer of the day. My league has tightened up to the point that there are five teams still in the hunt to win it at the league level. Losing Trout would be a disaster of epic proportions (ranked on the list just behind the advent of the Desecrated Hitter and artificial turf).

The Week - As it is, I had a real good week which I needed just to hold onto second place. I retook the lead in HR, R and RBI. A tenuous lead at best as I am a whopping total of five ahead combined for all three (1 ahead each in HR and R and three in RBI). Even an average week could cost me four points here. It is great when a plan works as Jarrod Dyson tossed in five SB. That helped my team to get ten total SB for the week on 298 AB, 43 Runs, 45 RBI’s, and 14 HR to go with a .2987 BA. A few more of these would be nice and needed to hold onto my HR/R/RBI leads as well as make up points in BA and SB.

Given I only had eight starts last week, I ended up with good stats in pitching too. A 3.394 ERA and 1.183 WHIP is nice and close to what my overall targets in those two categores, but given my current mediocre 3.636 and 1.235, I need those weekly numbers to be better. The difference truly was the Perkins blow up. And that has been the constant refrain for this team. The wicked blow-up has happened every week.

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No, not that kind of wicked blow-up. You know what I mean…

Anyway, I also got 63 K’s and four saves this week. The K’s give me a nice 65 K lead over second place. So I hit all of my pitching targets as well…save one. Wins. I got two, one of the no-hitter and Sale’s great start Saturday. I truly could have won seven of the eight starts. Coulda, woulda, shoulda.

The FA Pool – For the second period running, I did not even place a bid. Of the players who mildly interested me (Conforto, Piscotty, and Nola), I just could not see having even intermediate term value. I do not know if the Mets will make a splash for a big-name outfielder, but if they do,Conforto will be back down for a little more seasoning. I tried not to get all googly eyed over his good weekend.

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He and Piscotty (who I do not think will stay at 1B as the Cardinals will trade for a Reynolds-upgrade qualify) at OF for me with Dyson (on my team for SB), Aoki (due back today), Trout, Marte, and Holliday, OF is not my need. And I have Trumbo (HUGE disappointment), Kris Davis (could be full time if the Brewer fire sale continues) and De Aza (What will the BoSox do?). Aaron Nola would be a nice target, but with so many Braves and Brewer pitchers on my team, I did not need another good pitcher on a bad team. That is the story on wins. Good pitchers, bad teams. I had, to a certain extent, thought my W% would less than stellar, but a 29.9%? C’MON! And I still do not even have one win out of a reliever.

Anyway, I now have the FA money lead so if anything pops that could help my team, I am well placed to buy some help.

Plans – So, who has the balls to sit Hamels after his no-hitter? It is really in my mind. If he is still with the Phillies he gets Atlanta, which sad to say, doesn’t scare me that much. He is a bit primed for a let down. The person I would consider replacing him with (don’t laugh now) is David Phelps.

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I said DON’T LAUGH! Seriously, Phelps, whom I started last week with two road starts, gets the Padres at home. Phelps home/road splits favors home (32 K in 40 IP with 10 BB and only 1 HR). I chanced him last week with two road starts and he gave me one good and one mediocre start. It would take cajones the size of watermelons to sit Hamels. I will weigh them when I get a quiet moment, but if I start Hamels, I will have to decide between Phelps and Nelson as my seventh starter.

I will be also watching what happens with the closer-go-round this week. My big gamble flopped when Cishek was traded to the Cardinals. Given my K lead, I could go with an extra closer for a few weeks and hopefully pick up some points in Saves.

I will also be looking for an upgrade on Pedro Alvarez, if one pops up, as I am guessing the Pirates are about to turn him into a bench bat. Also, if I can upgrade Galvis/Asdrubal or Scooter/Gyorko I can do that. Stat wise, a little BA help would be nice.

So my max point strategy is to maintain, as much as possible, my advantage in HR, RBI, R, and SP (currently 60.0 points, so I got nowhere there to go but down). I feel I can generate some more points out of SB (currently with 8.0 points, but only 3 SB behind the 11.0 point player) and Saves (currently at 9.0 points and 6 saves behind the guy with 12.0 points though one of the teams ahead of me already is using three closers). The average stats have about 8.0 points worth of potential points, so there is some opportunity there, too.

For our league, Andy Robinson is in the lead and has a great, balanced team with a great chance to crack the top 10 if not make a run for the top. The shame is I will not be challenging for the overall. Points lost in Wins has cost me too much. BUT…you never know…

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Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Re: Edwards Kings 2015 Main Event Blog

Post by Edwards Kings » Mon Aug 03, 2015 8:29 am

Stretch run. It means different things at this time of the year to different people depending on their team’s relative position. Some are truly in the hunt for the overall and may be paying more attention to the overall numbers than to the league numbers. Many more will be looking a little more closely at the league positioning in order to secure a money spot. One team in my league is doing both, Team Robinson sitting in 15th overall and first in my league. He is about 100 points from cracking the top 10 in the overall and 12 points ahead of me. Including Andy and myself there are five teams still in the league money hunt. Stretch run indeed. Two of the five teams have relatively balanced teams, and three either have excellent pitching or batting stats with the converse holding them back. I am in the strong bat/weak sister pitching category.

And stretch run, based on my personal definition, occurs after the July 31st trading deadline. Certain pieces fall into place. Jobs are lost and jobs are gained. Certainly that has happened in Washington, Detroit, Oakland, Atlanta, Miami, and New York (Citi version) just to name a few. Seems to me the most changes occurred in pitching staffs. Certainly there are going to be some radically changed starting staffs with lots of rookies. Many of those are going to be marginal talents on bad teams keeping seats warm until next year. Not thank you. But there are winners and losers in the Closer ranks too with brand new closers (Ok, bad teams, too!).

So, what will I do for my stretch run? How can I improve my team? I dodged the bullet as I did not have any of the superseded closers, though it was a near run thing if Arizona’s desire to upgrade at the position was not just noise. In any regard, I went after a third closer, both as a way to block others from getting at least one of them and with thoughts of going with three closers for a while. I was leading my league in money, so I knew I would be able to bid enough to get one and still not hamstring myself for the remaining few FAAB periods.

I am in dead last in Wins in my league with middling ERA and WHIP numbers. However, I lead my league in K’s and reasonably can pick up two or three points in Saves. I had ranked the potential new closers 1) Arodys Vizcaino, ATL; 2) Alex Wilson, DET; and 3) Edward Mujica, OAK. I am not sure any will hold the jobs all year or if there will be the revolving door or committee approach. I viewed Mujica as being most susceptible to both conditions and had a conditional bid on him of $57. I did not need it and it would have been overkill as he went for $6. Vizcaino, my #1, went for $129 to Eric Price, one of the teams still in the hunt. My bid was runner up at $127. Missed it by that much! Aardsma and Frasor are probably the best options after Arodys in Atlanta, but it would not surprise me if he were given a lot of rope.

I won Wilson for the same $127 (runner up $49). Big risk of committee approach here (recent reports talked about Blaine Hardy) and Detroit may phone it in the rest of the way. Still, it gives me an option.

So what do I do with my newly minted closer and how can he help the stretch run? If I maximize my two start pitchers as much as possible, I may be able to hold most, if not all of my K points allowing me to go with six starters and three closers. This week, that will mean sitting Teheran, Hamels, or Odorizzi. All three have been blown up recently, but all three have the ability to kick in a really good start against Miami, at Seattle, or the Mets. Here is one thing I can guarantee. The guy I put on the bench will be phenomenal. Murphy’s law. Anyway, I dropped Cishek, a gamble gone wrong. I honestly thought he would pitch himself back into a closer role this year.

With Holliday down again, I need to try to get some regular OF AB. This is the second DL for Holliday (something I knew, given his age, was a possibility when I drafted him) and he MAY be back in September. I cannot bank on it so I made the tough call to cut him. He did (and may have again) help me in BA, but the rest of his stats simply were not there. So, being the rocket scientist I am, I am replacing him with the imminently more reliable Coco Crisp ($31, no runner up). I do not know how much he will play, but rumor has it he will bat second when he comes of the DL today. Total flyer.

I also picked up another risky player in David Freese, whom I hope will be activated in about two weeks. The Angels will be in it until the end, so this might be a nice safety if Pittsburgh ever finds somebody better than Alvarez, who right now is my starting third baseman. I am in my own world as my $13 bid had no runner-up. I dropped Uribe whom actually played decently for me in the 77 AB I used him since he came over from LA to Atlanta. In NY, it appears his AB will be decidedly more sporadic.

And finally, I picked up Miguel Montero ($23 with a $14 runner up), dropping De Aza. This was two-fold. I wanted a back-up catcher and there are not a lot of options out there. Might be a waste.

With the money I spent, I still have nearly $200. There are only about four or five guys with more money than I do so I can still be active. In general, I am still doing very well in most of the batting counting stats, but can make up some ground in Runs and SB. Pitching counting stats have opportunity in Saves and I need to defend my K points. The 1.0 point I have in Wins is an albatross on my winning my league, but I see less opportunity here as I would need to stream pitchers and the options there are not good. I will stick with some rotation of Sale, Hamels, Teheran, Miller, Odorizzi, Fiers and Nelson though if I do like a FA pitcher for a week, I will certainly try for him.

Bats will be Vogt (cooling considerably) and Martin at catcher. Superman (Teixeira), Hosmer, and Alvarez at the corners. Dozier and some combo of Cabrera, Gyorko, Gennett, and Galvis in the middle. OF/UT will be Trout, Marte, Trumbo, Aoki, Kris Davis (who may see more AB with Gomez gone), and Crisp. I still have Jarrod Dyson as well, but he has been supplanted by Zobrist and Gordon could be back in early September, so he will not take up much bench space for long.

I hope you are all still in it and the dice roll your way.

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Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Re: Edwards Kings 2015 Main Event Blog

Post by Edwards Kings » Mon Aug 10, 2015 8:25 am

I doubt my league is the tightest at the top, but we are tight enough. Eleven points separates the lead from fourth place with two through four only separated by 3.5 points and the team in fifth is far from out of it. It is so tight, when I have an itch, I am not sure whose ear I am scratching.

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I am in the hunt on the backs of my offense, though we are bunched even in those categories. Amazing after over 5,100 AB so far, four of us at the top of the Runs category are within nine of each other. Three of us are within 16 RBI’s. Right now I have 44.0 points in Runs (53rd overall), HR (23rd), and RBI (31st). Five of us keep swapping points in BA (nine to thirteen points with BA’s between .2636 and .2689). There are nine teams between 91 SB (me) and 109 SB spread out such that one good week can be three or four league points.

My problem is my pitching. My starters are in almost total collapse and I cannot even blame injury. I never thought that a core of Sale, Hamels, Teheran, Miller and Odorizzi (the only one who has spent time on the DL and that was a month) would leave me with high ERA (273rd in the Overall), WHIP (285th), and low in wins (435th). And it is not like there is a lot on the waiver wire that would be considered an upgrade. I have use Fiers and Nelson and my sixth and seventh most of the year an while they have not helped, they haven’t been the worst back-end and their collective 92.3% K Rate has helped me lead my league in strikeouts (32nd Overall). And I have been able to solidify at least mid-tier points in Saves in the face of the Addison Reed debacle. With the recent closer trades, I was able to pick up a third closer and I hope to be able to make up some ground on the teams ahead of me.

Like I mentioned, the DL is not my excuse. Those seven pitchers I mentioned have made up 89% of my 161 games started. I have only had to use three catchers and that was just until Vogt got eligibility. I have been able to use the resurgent Teixeira and useful Hosmer as my CM anchors with Pedro Alvarez as well (I had expected more out of Pedro this year). Trout, Marte, and Trumbo (who is playing better of late) have been my OF core with Aoki being great early until he got injured. Dozier (great) and Asdrubal (not so great) have been my MI core.

Losing Matt Holliday has been my most significant injury. Replacing the two OFers (Holliday and Aoki) and trying to find a solid UT has generated most of my roster variability along with the combo of Galvis, Gyorko, Gennett, Panik, and Escobar for my MI role. Still, for this contest, locking down 10 roles on offense is not bad.

And I may be solidifying one more. I picked up Kris Davis last June 21st for $1. What a week he had and I hope, with Gomez gone, he continues to play regularly. If he continues to show last year’s power, it could help solidify some of my batting points. If Aoki is ok (got beaned yesterday), I could be alright with an OF of Trout, Marte, Davis, and Aoki. I also have Coco Crisp, whom I would like to get a few steals from, but do not know if he will play regularly the rest of the season. I still have Trumbo, whom I would like to slot at UT, but more likely than not, I will use him in the OF.

I picked up Jed Lowrie for $20 this week. That also may solidify positively my MI with Dozier and Cabrera, who is hitting better since his short DL stint (.476 with 12 runs, 2 HR, 6 RBI and one SB in the last two weeks). A week ago I took a $13 flyer on David Freese. I hope he comes back healthy as he could provide at least some middling numbers at 3b in case the Pirates tire of Alvarez or at least to use when the Pirates are scheduled to play a string of LHers.

Pitching is what pitching is. I almost went big on Severino, but honestly I was not going to us the 3/4th of my remaining money for him. That start next week in Toronto scares me too. Right now, I will go with what I think are my top five (Sale, Hamels, Teheran, Miller and Odorizzi) with Fiers or Nelson in the sixth spot with three closers (Perkins, Ziegler, and Alex Wilson if healthy). I wish my pitching staff had performed this year as well as they have been able to stay healthy. Still getting crushed by blow-ups.

Anyway, I am still writing, so I must be in the hunt. Maybe I will bag something.

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Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Re: Edwards Kings 2015 Main Event Blog

Post by Edwards Kings » Tue Aug 11, 2015 7:08 am

Free Agents

We are the best. Not just blowing cool air up the pants leg to chill the nads on a hot summer day. We ARE the best. This competition, these competitors. I truly believe this is true for the fantasy baseball community (the cotton-candy, fantasy-lite daily competitions notwithstanding).

But we are imperfect. Even after fifteen practiced competitors and 450 picks, we let big fish slip through out nets. We “spend” big bucks on players (gambles really) that don’t play out. Opportunities arise either because big league teams have injuries we cannot predict (sure, we can be sure there will be injuries, but to who, where, when, and how long?), trades occur that may have been previously unfathomable (we KNEW Cole Hamels would be traded sometime, but who would have thunk Kimbrel so early?), previously solid veterans slip opening the door for increased playing time or rookies, our individual teams have glaring needs to be addressed or any combination of the above. And then we make mistakes when the opportunities arise. Or at least certainly I do.

Not unexpectedly by this time of the year just a little more than 90% of my leagues FA budget has been spent. Of the $13,509 of FA money spent, 19 winning bids have been greater than $100 (ranging from $105 to $406) or just over a quarter of the collective FA budget. So, how did we do with our “investments”? Some of those big bids came around mid-point or a little later, so let’s call the book out some of those (like Sano, Alex Wilson, Vizcaino, and Severino but I am guessing we can close to the book on Jim Johnson). From my original 19, that leaves 14 from earlier in the year that I think we can pretty much tell if the money spent was worth it.

The mack-daddy bid this year in my league was for Carlos Correa who was picked up on June 14th for $406. He was my largest bid of the year ($268) and I wasn’t the runner-up ($333). Correa was picked up in 30 leagues. How the hell did he get missed in 30 drafts? Because Houston was not supposed to challenge this year, they had signed Lowrie to play shortstop, Valbuena to play third, already had Altuve at second, and there were other MI prospects that seemingly had a better chance to contribute this year. Anyway, Correa went for anywhere from $601 to $178 (though that Mace and Bailey's Ass-kickers NY 4 bid was the anomaly as the next lowest winning bid was $321). To date for the team in my league Correa has only batted .294 with 12 homers, 28 runs scored, 33 RBI’s and 8 stolen bases in 187 AB. Nice. A worth-it win.

Number two is also a winner. $385 was bid on Jeurys Familia on April 12th. Total miss for me (after all I already had two closers including Addison Reed). Familia was picked up in 23 leagues with bids ranging from $527 to $179 (nice Bob!). I bid $135 but the runner up in our league was $356 (which would have won in 13 of the leagues). Familia and his 27 saves for his owner, who leads my league in saves running away (also has Trevor and Casilla), has been worth it.

Going out of order, number four was from the same week as we had a new closer in Toronto, Miguel Castro. Winning bid in my league was $347 ($277 runner up) and I bid $131 as my first conditional to the Familia bid. Castro also went in 23 leagues that week with a range of $521 to $239. Castro can only be seen as a bust as he blew up early, got his owner two saves with unsightly ERA and WHIP.

Third ended up being a strange one. Jason Grilli went for $383 (runner up $335) on April 5th (I bid $103) after the surprise Braves trade, totally screwing Benoit owners (a #146 ADP drafted with the second pick in the 9th round of my league just after I drafted Glenn Perkins and yes Benoit was certainly on my radar). This is a winner I think for most, but the owner in my league used him for only 9 saves/13 IP of the 24 saves he generated before his unfortunate injury. At the time, the owner had other options (Kimbrel and Soria), though now he has been hit by the double whammy of injury and trade to uselessness.

Number five was Maikel Franco who went for $335 (runner up $176 and I bid $131) on May 17th and has given his owner 40 runs, 46 RBI’s and 12 homers to go with a .278 BA in 284 AB. This one has to be a winner as that is pretty nice production. This owner paid a premium (his bid was third highest of the 26 leagues that Franco was available) and the range was $425 to $85 (saw your $89…nice again Bob…do you give lessons?).

Number six John Axford for $255 (runner up $204, I did not bid) on May 3rd. Axford was picked up in 14 leagues that week with the range of winning bids being $504 to $251. Are eleven saves with a 4.219 ERA and 1.547 WHIP over 21.3 IP worth it? This team was hurting for saves, so I am going to say yes.

Number seven – Joey Gallo $188 on June 7th ($158 RU and I bid a buck as a conditional to my Uribe $13 winning bid). Bust.

Number eight – Eduardo Rodriguez $176 on May 31st ($129 RU I bid elsewhere that you will see below). While Rodriguez has produced less than middling stats, this team has dealt with the Strasburg effect this year.

Number nine – Mike Foltynewicz $153 on May 3rd ($11 RU). Has to be viewed as a flop.

Number ten – Lance McCullers $144 on May 24th ($77 RU). Total winner until August 3rd. Taking a bit of a vacation in Corpus Cristi. Will be back.

Number eleven – Steve Cisek on May 31st. Winning bid was $121. No runner up. Man was this owner daft. Stupid bid. Thought Cisek would either get the role back or be traded to someone who needed a closer. Was sure everyone one else would think the same (except of course for the team that had just dropped him). Who was this brain-dead owner? Yep, me. Wanted a fall back if Arizona upgraded over Ziegler.

Number 12 – Pedro Strop $106. Nope.

Number 13 – Joe Nathan $105. Nada.

Number 14 – Addison Russell $105. He is playing, but with pretty middling stats for his owner.

Many, many misses. Anyway, I always look at the results of the larger bids, so I thought I would share my dribble.
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Re: Edwards Kings 2015 Main Event Blog

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Tue Aug 11, 2015 9:30 am

Great stuff, Wayne.
FAAB is the NFBC's great equalizer. Bids are different in every league. Some mavericks will make bold bids. Some leagues could be conservative throughout the season.
It is also a product of timing. Those bidding on Familia got a full season's worth of Save stats. His bidders, for the most part, needed Saves early and were rewarded.
The Vizcaino, Wilson, Kahnle, and Mujica bidding that came around two weeks ago?
Totally different.
Their bidders, for the most part, were bargain shopping. Knowing that there were four Closers hitting the market at the same time. Some bidders did not NEED another Closer. For some, like yourself, It's just nice to have another rostered as insurance or a third Closer.

If NFBC owners have a flaw, it is with FAAB. Sometimes we talk ourselves into needing positional help so badly, that we over pay for peace of mind. There isn't a soul reading this that doesn't know the downside of a Jimmy Johnson or Steve Cishek.
Still, we pay many dollars for the heartbreak of rostering them.
They have/had something that only 29 others have in this world and that's a job in closing games.

For new players, FAAB is daunting. They know that most others have already experienced FAAB and feel they are at a disadvantage. They are unknowing in what to expect because they are new to the system. We're experienced and STILL do not know what to expect. A fact that is tough to sell to a new player.
A player that is worth $130 in one person's mind, may not receive another bid from 14 other competitors.
And so it goes.....
The imperfections in our own logic of FAAB makes FAAB the perfect logical way to change our rosters.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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Re: Edwards Kings 2015 Main Event Blog

Post by headhunters » Wed Aug 12, 2015 10:10 am

there is also the "worth it to me/you" component. if you have zero closers what is one worth? not nearly as much as when you have one closer- or 2. if you have 2 closers and get a 3rd- you really probably need that guy for a 3rd or maybe a half a season. if you had a weak middle infield correa was really huge. etc. just my take on it.

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Re: Edwards Kings 2015 Main Event Blog

Post by Edwards Kings » Wed Aug 12, 2015 10:54 am

headhunters wrote:there is also the "worth it to me/you" component. if you have zero closers what is one worth? not nearly as much as when you have one closer- or 2. if you have 2 closers and get a 3rd- you really probably need that guy for a 3rd or maybe a half a season. if you had a weak middle infield correa was really huge. etc. just my take on it.
Agreed. My bid really undervalued Correa, to my teams detriment. Still, breaking $400 is hard for me to do. I have done it at least once that I can remember and STILL did not win the player (Villar who turned out to be a bust, so I guess I was lucky that time).
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Re: Edwards Kings 2015 Main Event Blog

Post by Edwards Kings » Wed Aug 12, 2015 11:00 am

DOUGHBOYS wrote:The imperfections in our own logic of FAAB makes FAAB the perfect logical way to change our rosters.
Deep thoughts...

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Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Posts: 13091
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Re: Edwards Kings 2015 Main Event Blog

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Fri Aug 14, 2015 10:51 am

Continuing the FAAB thoughts....

Its been said that fantasy baseball is part skill, part luck. Everybody can insert their own percentages of each.
What is missing is timing.
In some instances, timing is more important than luck or skill.

An injury to a so-so middle infielder, may have resulted in a large bid and the rostering of Carlos Correa.
Our roster, full of healthy Starters, may have stopped us from bidding on a pitcher who went for big money, then sucked.
Mark Buehrle being dropped in May and falling into the hands of a team desperate for Wins.
Not having enough money to put in a large bid for Steven Matz and "win" him.

Timing is an often overlooked element of FAAB. But one of utmost import.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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Re: Edwards Kings 2015 Main Event Blog

Post by Edwards Kings » Mon Aug 17, 2015 12:48 pm

So we got our comments back...

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I am going to be busy for a few days, but have a few random thoughts.

So, not that many are as desperate as I am to need and start Gyrko. He had 10 RBI's for me last week. Sometimes desperate is good (two HR and only two runs scored). Funny thing is I will probably sit him to potentially get an extra game out of Lowrie at home the first four days this week.

Still doing well in HR (1st in my league) and RBI (also 1st), both by a decent margin. In third place in runs (seven behind the leader) and falling behind in steals (expected more than the 19 combined I have gotten out of Trout and Dozier) with Aoki out for a few more days (though he is not such a good source since the injury). Bid $27 and won for Desmond. Maybe combined he and Crisp will light it up and swipe a dozen bases...yeah...right!

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Only had six starts due to Hamels being pushed back, but still managed (thanks to Sale and Miller yesterday) to get 54 K's this week and therefore able to maintain my K lead. Had only one blow-up (Odorizzi). Other five starts (three wins, but not really even tracking because I am in last place) generated only six earned runs and 28 H/BB in 34 IP. I do that the rest of the year and I could actually challenge for the league lead again. Odds are I will end up with the NFBC equivalent of shooting myself in a tender area...

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As it is, I am in third, 2.5 points from second. If I can get lucky enough to put some space between me and at least three of the other four teams in the top third...well, I guess I will have to practice my smile just in case.

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Lots of games this week. Good luck. Well, at least for me, good luck. For the rest of you...

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8-) :lol:
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Edwards Kings
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Re: Edwards Kings 2015 Main Event Blog

Post by Edwards Kings » Tue Sep 08, 2015 12:23 pm

My team, in pictures....

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And I can make it go back up. So frustrating. Stopped scoring runs, getting (enough) hits, stealing bases or getting saves. Giving up plenty of baserunners and earned runs though.

Nothing left to do but...

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Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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