Who is most likely to regress?

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Wed Nov 07, 2007 12:43 pm

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Think of Jack Cust as a poor man's Adam Dunn.

He'll look pretty good to a team that is needing power in the middle rounds. If I remember right, since the season seems so long ago now, those home runs Cust hit weren't fly balls, they were bombs. Well-stated. I hope Jason Kendall hits all fly-balls this coming year so everyone picks him up for his 40 HR season in 2009.

Power, patience and a poor average have been the Cust package going on 9 years now. 2007 wasn't a surprise and I dobt 2008 will be. As far as playing time, he is good enough to play, but where? The A's are going to be hesitant to play him in the field regularly if they go get a Bonds to DH. I think most likely they won't but the season doesn't start tomorow.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 1:33 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

Okay, moving onto the next discussion: Who did the panelists say was the top rookie prospect for 2008? I'll take a day of answers with explanations and then give the answer tomorrow. Good luck all. He is a little young, but has moved through the minors like the wind, has shown good contact skills/BA, good defense, decent power, and speed. What is not to like?

Jay Bruce, OF, CIN.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 1:59 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

quote:Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

Okay, moving onto the next discussion: Who did the panelists say was the top rookie prospect for 2008? I'll take a day of answers with explanations and then give the answer tomorrow. Good luck all. He is a little young, but has moved through the minors like the wind, has shown good contact skills/BA, good defense, decent power, and speed. What is not to like?

Jay Bruce, OF, CIN. [/QUOTE]why would Dusty play him over Jeff Conine or Glenn Braggs, or Kal Daniels, maybe Eric Davis?

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 2:37 am

Kal Daniels

Great pull.

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 2:40 am

jay bruce and votto have 0 chance of playing for cinci at the major league level as long as dusty is manager. he already has 4 old or injury prone outfielders and hatenburg at first along with jeff conine. harang and bailey should be toast by 09 after pitching 400 innings in 08.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 3:52 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

quote:Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

Okay, moving onto the next discussion: Who did the panelists say was the top rookie prospect for 2008? I'll take a day of answers with explanations and then give the answer tomorrow. Good luck all. He is a little young, but has moved through the minors like the wind, has shown good contact skills/BA, good defense, decent power, and speed. What is not to like?

Jay Bruce, OF, CIN. [/QUOTE]Bruce was Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year and he will be a very interesting player to watch this year. I think the consensus is that he will start the year at Triple-A if everyone is healthy on Opening Day as they've already committed to Adam Dunn, Josh Hamilton, Ken Griffey Jr. and Ryan Freel in the outfield. But at some point in 2008, most folks believe that Bruce will get the callup and he could bust on the scene like Hunter Pence did last year.

He was definitely a top prospect discussed in Arizona, but he wasn't No. 1.

I'm not giving out the No. 1 prospect answer until I see more answers.

[ November 08, 2007, 10:45 AM: Message edited by: Greg Ambrosius ]

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 5:36 am

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

quote:Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

quote:Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

Okay, moving onto the next discussion: Who did the panelists say was the top rookie prospect for 2008? I'll take a day of answers with explanations and then give the answer tomorrow. Good luck all. He is a little young, but has moved through the minors like the wind, has shown good contact skills/BA, good defense, decent power, and speed. What is not to like?

Jay Bruce, OF, CIN. [/QUOTE]why would Dusty play him over Jeff Conine or Glenn Braggs, or Kal Daniels, maybe Eric Davis? [/QUOTE]OK...OK...I have a Kal Daniels autographed baseball card...

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 5:37 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

quote:Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

quote:Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

Okay, moving onto the next discussion: Who did the panelists say was the top rookie prospect for 2008? I'll take a day of answers with explanations and then give the answer tomorrow. Good luck all. He is a little young, but has moved through the minors like the wind, has shown good contact skills/BA, good defense, decent power, and speed. What is not to like?

Jay Bruce, OF, CIN. [/QUOTE]Bruce was Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year and he will be a very interesting player to watch this year. I think the consensus is that he will start the year at Triple-A if everyone is healthy on Opening Day as they've already committed to Adam Dunn, Josh Hamilton, Ken Griffey Jr. and Ryan Freel in the outfield. But at some point in 2008, most folks believe that Bruce will get the callup and he could bust on the scene like Hunter Pence did last year.

He was definitely a top prospect discussed in Arizona, but he wasn't No. 1.

I'm not giving out the No. 1 prospect answer until I see more answers.

[/QUOTE]That's what I like about him...very much like Hunter Pence with too many people in front of him but Pench punched through.

Can I get another try?

[ November 08, 2007, 11:38 AM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 5:44 am

Jacoby Ellsbury. .353 116ab(still eligible for ROY) 9sb 0cs for BOS in their title run season. Crisp is toast so CF will be all his. He will sit near the top of the order and do some MASSIVE things up there n '08!

Kimo · Post by **Kimo** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 5:56 am

Geovany Soto, should enter 2008 as the starter for the Cubs or Daric Barton of the A's. If Jack Cust is headed for the minors then Barton might have a full time job for the A's

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 6:26 am

dear edward kings- bruce is tremendous- so is votto- repeat- they are dunn for 2008, 2009 2010 or until dusty leaves. in fact bailey may be sent down. dusty will not play anyone under 26-27. in fact encarcion may be sent down also- freel will play 3rd. done, finished, over.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 7:22 am

Originally posted by Quahogs:

Jacoby Ellsbury. .353 116ab(still eligible for ROY) 9sb 0cs for BOS in their title run season. Crisp is toast so CF will be all his. He will sit near the top of the order and do some MASSIVE things up there n '08! I agree on all this and he is a ROY candidate for sure. He's not the right answer as folks in Arizona really didn't talk too much about him, mainly because I think everyone was able to see his talents and already know much about him. Crisp will be traded, I'm sure, which makes Ellsbury an interesting fantasy pickup in '08.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 7:24 am

Originally posted by Kimo:

Geovany Soto, should enter 2008 as the starter for the Cubs or Daric Barton of the A's. If Jack Cust is headed for the minors then Barton might have a full time job for the A's Soto was discussed at length as some panelists were surprised by his one year jump in power. John Sickels of ESPN.com said that he heard Soto worked out a lot the year before and just looked like a completely different player. The ball jumped off his bat and the power followed. Now, can he do it in the majors for a full season? Most felt he could, but some were a little more leery.

Everyone is high on Barton. The first base job should be his and he will succeed. Good choice, but he's not the No. 1 prospect according to the AFL experts.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 7:27 am

Originally posted by headhunters:

dear edward kings- bruce is tremendous- so is votto- repeat- they are dunn for 2008, 2009 2010 or until dusty leaves. in fact bailey may be sent down. dusty will not play anyone under 26-27. in fact encarcion may be sent down also- freel will play 3rd. done, finished, over. That's definitely the rap on Dusty, but I think it's a rap that could make Bruce the sleeper pick of 2008. If everyone in your league feels that Dusty will never play a young, talented prospect, then you should get him late in the draft and be able to store him on your reserve until Griffey or Hamilton or Freel or all of them get hurt.

Personally, I don't think Dusty is so crazy against rookies that he wouldn't play Bruce if he wows him in spring training, goes to Triple-A and rakes again and a spot is open for him. Dusty will call him up and ride him to the Promise Land. He'll pitch Bailey and Cuerto as well if they prove to be the best pitchers. Why wouldn't he??

Prove 'em wrong Dusty and start the youngsters in 2008!!

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 7:42 am

How about Ian Stewart? Solid power (fair amount of doubles and HR...ok, at Colorado Springs), good BA, ok speed. Dump Matsui, move Atkins to second (or trade for pitching) and there you go. He is as ML ready as any other prospect.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 7:54 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

How about Ian Stewart? Solid power (fair amount of doubles and HR...ok, at Colorado Springs), good BA, ok speed. Dump Matsui, move Atkins to second (or trade for pitching) and there you go. He is as ML ready as any other prospect. I saw a report today that the Rockies have Stewart working at second base in the Arizona Instructional League. If they decide not to re-sign Matsui, Stewart could start at second base.

Good guess, but he wasn't the top prospect being mentioned.

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 8:34 am

greg and anyone else- i would like to learn something today. what i don't understand is- and i will use barton as an example- when someone says "we are all high on barton" i look him up- he played in the pcl- which i think is a hitters paradise- and he hit 9 homers in 500 at bats. he hit .293. i know "his power will come" but i look at chris young- who is about the same age: 24,26,21 homers- in way fewer at bats. kemp same way. so- what else are you guys looking at in evaluating a guy like barton. thanks

poopy tooth · Post by **poopy tooth** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 8:40 am

Greg -

Is it Andy LaRoche? 18HR is 265 AB's .309 avg and .399 OBP Plus, who else would play 3B for the Dodgers? It's would seem like he has a legitimate shot at it.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 8:47 am

Originally posted by headhunters:

greg and anyone else- i would like to learn something today. what i don't understand is- and i will use barton as an example- when someone says "we are all high on barton" i look him up- he played in the pcl- which i think is a hitters paradise- and he hit 9 homers in 500 at bats. he hit .293. i know "his power will come" but i look at chris young- who is about the same age: 24,26,21 homers- in way fewer at bats. kemp same way. so- what else are you guys looking at in evaluating a guy like barton. thanks First of all, you see a kid who was 21 in the PCL last year who hit .293 with an OBP of .389. You see the smooth stroke from the left side, the maturity at the plate at age 21. You see someone who will grow into his power naturally as he matures physically. The 38 doubles he hit at Sacramento will eventually turn into homers one day.

Then you look at how he handled his promotion to the big leagues, hitting .347 in 72 at-bats with a .429 OBP and an amazing .639 Slugging percentage. His power was too good to believe (4 HRs in 18 games), but the 9 doubles again show you what's in store soon.

Throughout the minors, his OBP is consistently around .400, which to me is the first good sign. The A's LOVE guys like that and will easily make time for him at first base. The fact that he hit above or around .300 as well is impressive since he was so young at each level. All of this data points to a youngster who seems to be maturing fast and at 6'0", 225 pounds has the frame to grow into a good power hitter.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 8:48 am

Originally posted by poopy tooth:

Greg -

Is it Andy LaRoche? 18HR is 265 AB's .309 avg and .399 OBP Plus, who else would play 3B for the Dodgers? It's would seem like he has a legitimate shot at it. Someone named Alex Rodriguez could play third base for the Dodgers!!

It's not LaRoche because everyone wants to see if the Dodgers will keep a spot for him or not. Let's wait and see what happens.

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 9:26 am

thanks greg. gotcha- although i have to say the case of the obp is a real deal- esp. with the a's- and i agree with it- so i hope the guys that loved barton aren't the same as the ones that hated crust- because those 100 walks are real also.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 9:28 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

quote:Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

How about Ian Stewart? Solid power (fair amount of doubles and HR...ok, at Colorado Springs), good BA, ok speed. Dump Matsui, move Atkins to second (or trade for pitching) and there you go. He is as ML ready as any other prospect. I saw a report today that the Rockies have Stewart working at second base in the Arizona Instructional League. If they decide not to re-sign Matsui, Stewart could start at second base.

Good guess, but he wasn't the top prospect being mentioned. [/QUOTE]Well, I am 0-2 (reminds me of my real life baseball skills). I will just have to watch and learn.

[ November 08, 2007, 03:29 PM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Thu Nov 08, 2007 10:55 am

how about the yankees don't sign mariano and move joba into the closers roll, ala papelbon, and he becomes the stud closer of the future.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Fri Nov 09, 2007 11:01 am

So, when a bunch of "experts" get together, who is the consensus #1 phenom?

I assume that Ryan Braun was the pick last year over Alex Gordon, right?

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Fri Nov 09, 2007 11:08 am

Dan - I heard a rumor that the 'real' experts weren't in zona