Main Event KDS Preferences

CC's Desperados
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Post by CC's Desperados » Sat Mar 14, 2009 8:47 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

P.S....tell Cindy I said "hi" you are probably cindy! [/QUOTE]You must be doing a good job because somehow you worked you way to three stars since yesterday. With the 15-1 comments, I thought you were destined for one star. The sympathy votes must be working.



I was just starting to be attracted to Cindy when you mug came to mind. Where is she? Did she just drop off some dirt and move on?

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Post by Thunder » Sat Mar 14, 2009 8:59 am

shawn, your box is full.

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Post by Gordon Gekko II » Sat Mar 14, 2009 9:05 am

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

The sympathy votes must be working.

perhaps the silent majority votes

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Post by CC's Desperados » Sat Mar 14, 2009 9:26 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

The sympathy votes must be working.

perhaps the silent majority votes
[/QUOTE]I'd have to check, but two votes isn't quite the majority.

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Post by CC's Desperados » Sat Mar 14, 2009 9:27 am

Originally posted by KentuckyReign:

shawn, your box is full.

bill Bill...I'm on vacation until March 24th!

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Post by Head 2 Head » Sat Mar 14, 2009 10:39 am

I left my KDS 1,2,3,....15. I ended up in the bottom half of my preference. Oh well.



Maybe most of these teams that left their KDS 1-15 didn't have a preference, but that was NOT the case with all of us. I wanted to pick as close to the front as possible.
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Post by rkulaski » Sat Mar 14, 2009 4:47 pm

Originally posted by Head 2 Head:

I left my KDS 1,2,3,....15. I ended up in the bottom half of my preference. Oh well.



Maybe most of these teams that left their KDS 1-15 didn't have a preference, but that was NOT the case with all of us. I wanted to pick as close to the front as possible. I also had mine at 1,2,3...15 because that's what I wanted. I'd be willing to bet that at least 50 of the 58 and maybe all 58 that left their KDS as the default did so purposely and not because they forgot or neglected to set their kds.



I'd be curious to know last year how many teams left their kds at 1-15. I know last year was a different story with more teams wanting to pick near the end. Surely it wasn't 58 teams. (am I way off here?)
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Post by Crazy Like a Fox » Sat Mar 14, 2009 5:53 pm

Originally posted by headhunters:

my 2 cents: last year and maybe in years past people actually were setting their kds wrong. as always greg heard about the problem- and fixed it . this year it is idiot proof. second- and i haven't checked- but i bet that in the 5 yeears of nfbc it has never happened that the 1st 4 picks ended the season as the top 4 producers. i would also bet that at least half the time the top player came outside of the top 4-5 drafted. could easily happen again. 3rd- i think this year more people kdsed the top than last and many people last year ( including me) kdsed the bottom 1st. with less people doing that it increases the chances of guys getting spots 13-15. the best poker players can play any hand. i am sure that will happen again. having said ALL of that- i see many good players picking 1st. more than i have ever seen. some of them will have hanly santana arod on their teams. if that happens - don't complain. everyone did not have a shot at hanly but everyone will have a shot at santana and arod. Good point, the 1st pick in the draft is hardly ever the "best pick".



What I see this year is most of the last 5 picks in the 1st shouldn't be going in the 1st. Josh Hamilton, maybe Holliday, Pedroia or Longoria slips in there. Also, there's no incredible advantage IMO to getting an early 2nd rounder over a late one, atleast not a clear benefit. They are all pretty well lumped together.



It seems like the early 1st round pick has such a great advantage in the first 5 rounds. You could get David Wright and Manny for instance, and then maybe a Vladimir Guerrero in the early 3rd. The 4th round is littered with quality players where you're not losing much getting a late 4th rounder there. You've got V-mart slipping to the 5th where you can steal him in the beginning of the round possibly.



I think you're at a major disadvantage this year drafting late 1st. In years past it's been different. I'm sure every fantasy leaguer will have different opinions, none of them wrong, it all depends on what players you like. I see a major disadvantage late 1st throughout the first 5 rounds, somebody might see a major advantage there.
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Post by Hard Heads » Sat Mar 14, 2009 8:51 pm

Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

quote:Originally posted by headhunters:

my 2 cents: last year and maybe in years past people actually were setting their kds wrong. as always greg heard about the problem- and fixed it . this year it is idiot proof. second- and i haven't checked- but i bet that in the 5 yeears of nfbc it has never happened that the 1st 4 picks ended the season as the top 4 producers. i would also bet that at least half the time the top player came outside of the top 4-5 drafted. could easily happen again. 3rd- i think this year more people kdsed the top than last and many people last year ( including me) kdsed the bottom 1st. with less people doing that it increases the chances of guys getting spots 13-15. the best poker players can play any hand. i am sure that will happen again. having said ALL of that- i see many good players picking 1st. more than i have ever seen. some of them will have hanly santana arod on their teams. if that happens - don't complain. everyone did not have a shot at hanly but everyone will have a shot at santana and arod. Good point, the 1st pick in the draft is hardly ever the "best pick".



What I see this year is most of the last 5 picks in the 1st shouldn't be going in the 1st. Josh Hamilton, maybe Holliday, Pedroia or Longoria slips in there. Also, there's no incredible advantage IMO to getting an early 2nd rounder over a late one, atleast not a clear benefit. They are all pretty well lumped together.



It seems like the early 1st round pick has such a great advantage in the first 5 rounds. You could get David Wright and Manny for instance, and then maybe a Vladimir Guerrero in the early 3rd. The 4th round is littered with quality players where you're not losing much getting a late 4th rounder there. You've got V-mart slipping to the 5th where you can steal him in the beginning of the round possibly.



I think you're at a major disadvantage this year drafting late 1st. In years past it's been different. I'm sure every fantasy leaguer will have different opinions, none of them wrong, it all depends on what players you like. I see a major disadvantage late 1st throughout the first 5 rounds, somebody might see a major advantage there.
[/QUOTE]Picking 9th and we truly disagree!
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Post by billywaz » Sun Mar 15, 2009 12:49 am

Originally posted by Hard Heads:

quote:Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

quote:Originally posted by headhunters:

my 2 cents: last year and maybe in years past people actually were setting their kds wrong. as always greg heard about the problem- and fixed it . this year it is idiot proof. second- and i haven't checked- but i bet that in the 5 yeears of nfbc it has never happened that the 1st 4 picks ended the season as the top 4 producers. i would also bet that at least half the time the top player came outside of the top 4-5 drafted. could easily happen again. 3rd- i think this year more people kdsed the top than last and many people last year ( including me) kdsed the bottom 1st. with less people doing that it increases the chances of guys getting spots 13-15. the best poker players can play any hand. i am sure that will happen again. having said ALL of that- i see many good players picking 1st. more than i have ever seen. some of them will have hanly santana arod on their teams. if that happens - don't complain. everyone did not have a shot at hanly but everyone will have a shot at santana and arod. Good point, the 1st pick in the draft is hardly ever the "best pick".



What I see this year is most of the last 5 picks in the 1st shouldn't be going in the 1st. Josh Hamilton, maybe Holliday, Pedroia or Longoria slips in there. Also, there's no incredible advantage IMO to getting an early 2nd rounder over a late one, atleast not a clear benefit. They are all pretty well lumped together.



It seems like the early 1st round pick has such a great advantage in the first 5 rounds. You could get David Wright and Manny for instance, and then maybe a Vladimir Guerrero in the early 3rd. The 4th round is littered with quality players where you're not losing much getting a late 4th rounder there. You've got V-mart slipping to the 5th where you can steal him in the beginning of the round possibly.



I think you're at a major disadvantage this year drafting late 1st. In years past it's been different. I'm sure every fantasy leaguer will have different opinions, none of them wrong, it all depends on what players you like. I see a major disadvantage late 1st throughout the first 5 rounds, somebody might see a major advantage there.
[/QUOTE]Picking 9th and we truly disagree!
[/QUOTE]What point (he has many of them) do you disagree

with Craig?



I only ask because this is a good discussion, and I am curious to hear your "take". ;)

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Post by Crazy Like a Fox » Sun Mar 15, 2009 5:15 am

Originally posted by Hard Heads:

quote:Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

quote:Originally posted by headhunters:

my 2 cents: last year and maybe in years past people actually were setting their kds wrong. as always greg heard about the problem- and fixed it . this year it is idiot proof. second- and i haven't checked- but i bet that in the 5 yeears of nfbc it has never happened that the 1st 4 picks ended the season as the top 4 producers. i would also bet that at least half the time the top player came outside of the top 4-5 drafted. could easily happen again. 3rd- i think this year more people kdsed the top than last and many people last year ( including me) kdsed the bottom 1st. with less people doing that it increases the chances of guys getting spots 13-15. the best poker players can play any hand. i am sure that will happen again. having said ALL of that- i see many good players picking 1st. more than i have ever seen. some of them will have hanly santana arod on their teams. if that happens - don't complain. everyone did not have a shot at hanly but everyone will have a shot at santana and arod. Good point, the 1st pick in the draft is hardly ever the "best pick".



What I see this year is most of the last 5 picks in the 1st shouldn't be going in the 1st. Josh Hamilton, maybe Holliday, Pedroia or Longoria slips in there. Also, there's no incredible advantage IMO to getting an early 2nd rounder over a late one, atleast not a clear benefit. They are all pretty well lumped together.



It seems like the early 1st round pick has such a great advantage in the first 5 rounds. You could get David Wright and Manny for instance, and then maybe a Vladimir Guerrero in the early 3rd. The 4th round is littered with quality players where you're not losing much getting a late 4th rounder there. You've got V-mart slipping to the 5th where you can steal him in the beginning of the round possibly.



I think you're at a major disadvantage this year drafting late 1st. In years past it's been different. I'm sure every fantasy leaguer will have different opinions, none of them wrong, it all depends on what players you like. I see a major disadvantage late 1st throughout the first 5 rounds, somebody might see a major advantage there.
[/QUOTE]Picking 9th and we truly disagree!
[/QUOTE]When I say late 1st I'm talking about 13-15. 9th pick is a pretty nice spot. It gets dicey really late 1st.
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Post by sportsbettingman » Sun Mar 15, 2009 5:21 am

So fickle.



You have previous years #1 picks like Aroid and Soriano now chopped liver? You can scoop them both up late 1st round in 2009.
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Post by Cotton1 » Sun Mar 15, 2009 5:32 am

i for one, am picking 14th(against my wishes) and agree that you could lump 10-15 players together and they all look alike, each one has at least one issue or question mark. someone will get it right in those spots, it seems but it will be difficult to know who until much later in the year, and it will be almost totally random. anyone that claims to get it from those spots may be fooling themselves. we will see a lot of strange combinations and bets from those spots, those spots lend themselvees to making bets. having said all that, to pick early in the even numbered rounds has some advantages if you know the pool well enough. we shall see in less than a week. the biggest frustration is i bet most players that have mocked or played out the flow in their minds worked from the 11th-12th spot at latest, knowing that having the last 2-3 spots was at most a 10-15% chance, and now it is reality. in the end, we are where we are, and we have to make the best of it. :(
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Post by Greg Ambrosius » Sun Mar 15, 2009 5:59 am

Just an FYI for this thread: The NFBC overall champions have drafted from:

3rd Spot (Artie Rastell, 2004)

5th Spot (Brian Oldenski, 2005)

9th Spot (David DiDonato, 2006)

7th Spot (Terry Haney, 2007)

9th Spot (Robert Jurney, 2008)



Also, three owners actually had 15 as their first KDS preference this year, with two of them going 15-1 in that order. One owner had 14, 15 as their top two KDS preferences.



The first thread does show that most folks had 13, 14, 15 as their final KDS preferences and thus there are folks who didn't benefit from KDS this year. It happens sometimes.
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Post by JohnZ » Sun Mar 15, 2009 6:06 am

There are no bad picks. Just bad owners.

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Post by SluggoJD » Sun Mar 15, 2009 6:29 am

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

let me wrap my interest in this thread up...

3) a SMALL % of owners had to take one for the team and get a backend pick. i just wish it woulda been the owners who don't care where they draft (ie don't set kds).



How does don't care come from not setting your KDS?



We start with our number one KDS preference and somehow you take it as we could give two shits where we draft.



There was one team with 15-1 out of 390.



If you give people enough rope, they will hang themselves.



P.S....tell Cindy I said "hi"
[/QUOTE]Gekko is Cindy? LOLOL, fantasy baseball sockpuppets, who would have thunk it?

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Post by Greg Ambrosius » Sun Mar 15, 2009 7:58 am

Okay, I just took one league randomly from the 26 main events to analyze the KDS and it was VERY interesting indeed. The average person got a KDS of 7.0, which isn't much better than the random process of 8.0. But the facts were still interesting:



** The top five teams all got their first preference. The bottom six teams all got their worst possible preference as all six teams had their last six choices as 10,11,12,13,14,15, which is exactly how they fell. In fact, not a single team in this league had 10-15 higher than the actual order of 10-15. Not a single team.



** No other team outside of the Top 5 moved positions in this league. The No. 9 team was picked ninth out of the hat and had 9 as their third preference, so they got what they wanted even though KDS didn't make that happen. Here's a look at all 15 teams and the preference they got:



No. 1: 1st KDS choice

No. 2: 1st

No. 3: 1st

No. 4: 1st

No. 5: 1st

No. 6: 6th

No. 7: 7th

No. 8: 8th

No. 9: 3rd

No. 10: 10th

No. 11: 11th

No. 12: 12th

No. 13: 13th

No. 14: 14th

NO. 15: 15th



I will gladly do several more leagues if folks want to see them, but this seems like a unique year where folks preferred the Top 4 spots if possible and fewer folks "chose" to go down to the bottom end of the draft. Hope this one helps. I'll do more if it helps.
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Post by JohnZ » Sun Mar 15, 2009 8:04 am

I'd like to see a few more.. That seems more like the extreme than the normal.

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Post by Greg Ambrosius » Sun Mar 15, 2009 8:14 am

Originally posted by JohnZ:

I'd like to see a few more.. That seems more like the extreme than the normal. Here's another one:



** Average KDS preference was 6.8. The team picked second out of the hat moved down past the middle and thus allowed other teams through No. 7 to move up one spot.



** Three teams got their No. 1 preference. Last four teams all got their worst possible preference: 12-15.



The KDS preferences they received were:

No. 1 - 1st choice

No. 2 - 2nd

No. 3 - 3rd

No. 4 - 4th

No. 5 - 5th

No. 6 - 6th

No. 7 - 7th

No. 8 - 8th

No. 9 - 1st

No. 10 - 9th

No. 11 - 1st

No. 12 - 12th

No. 13 - 13th

No. 14 - 14th

No. 15 - 15th
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Post by 751542 » Sun Mar 15, 2009 8:33 am

to me, these facts drive my point even further in that 3rr makes sense for fairer distribution...imo...just something to consider
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Post by 751542 » Sun Mar 15, 2009 8:35 am

in these cases,NOONE is preffering to move to the rear of the draft
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Post by Da bears » Sun Mar 15, 2009 8:42 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

Just an FYI for this thread: The NFBC overall champions have drafted from:

3rd Spot (Artie Rastell, 2004)

5th Spot (Brian Oldenski, 2005)

9th Spot (David DiDonato, 2006)

7th Spot (Terry Haney, 2007)

9th Spot (Robert Jurney, 2008)



Also, three owners actually had 15 as their first KDS preference this year, with two of them going 15-1 in that order. One owner had 14, 15 as their top two KDS preferences.



The first thread does show that most folks had 13, 14, 15 as their final KDS preferences and thus there are folks who didn't benefit from KDS this year. It happens sometimes. It It is interesting to see that the first five overall NFBC champions have had odd numbered draft slots...



Will the trend continue this year...????



Good thing I have a odd numbered draft slot this year. :D



[ March 15, 2009, 02:44 PM: Message edited by: Da bears ]
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Post by Sack » Sun Mar 15, 2009 8:44 am

RT - My fear is that in my league, there happens to be a few good players drafting from those last couple of spots. ;)

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Post by 751542 » Sun Mar 15, 2009 8:49 am

good one sack!!! wow, is it gonna be fun!!! meeting at the phillies games this year could have a whole new meaning!!! :cool:
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Post by JohnZ » Sun Mar 15, 2009 8:53 am

Originally posted by RoundTrippers:

to me, these facts drive my point even further in that 3rr makes sense for fairer distribution...imo...just something to consider Distribution of the final results is all that matters and there is nothing that shows any pick more valuable than any other in the history of this event.



Greg has proven this true in baseball every year. I've run 16-team, mixed leagues since 1984 and there has never once been a remotely recognizable pattern to draft slot performance.



I did a SAT yesterday. Pick #4. In Rd 4, I had 9 players on my list and they were all gone by my pick (in 11 picks). Big advantage in Rd 4 to those with high draft numbers. Too many players, rounds, and in season moves in baseball as Greg noted.



There are no bad picks. Just bad owners.

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