Which Draft Spots Were The Best In 2005?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 8:52 am

This post is probably a week too early, but it was fun to look up the top three teams in each NFBC league and see which spot they drafted from. There certainly is no clear cut favorite, but the middle spots appear to be yielding the best returns. Here's a look at the current leaders of the 20 NFBC leagues and the Ultimate Draft League:

1st Pick: 0 first place finishers to date

2nd Pick: 2 first place finishers

3rd Pick: 3 first place finishers

4th Pick: 0 first place finishers

5th Pick: 2 first place finishers

6th Pick: 1 first place finisher

7th Pick: 4 first place finishers

8th Pick: 3 first place finishers

9th Pick: 0 first place finishers

10th Pick: 1 first place finisher

11th Pick: 0 first place finishers

12th Pick: 3 first place finishers

13th Pick: 0 first place finishers

14th Pick: 1 first place finisher

15th Pick: 1 first place finisher

For Second Place:

1st Pick: 2

2nd Pick: 1

3rd Pick: 2

4th Pick: 1

5th Pick: 2

6th Pick: 1

7th Pick: 1

8th Pick: 2

9th Pick: 3

10th Pick: 0

11th Pick: 2

12th Pick: 3

13th Pick: 1

14th Pick: 0

15th Pick: 0

For Third Place (there are two ties):

1st Pick: 1

2nd Pick: 2

3rd Pick: 2

4th Pick: 2

5th Pick: 3

6th Pick: 4

7th Pick: 1

8th Pick: 1

9th Pick: 1

10th Pick: 0

11th Pick: 0

12th Pick: 3

13th Pick: 1

14th Pick: 1

15th Pick: 1

The best spot thus far? 12 (3 1sts and 9 money spots). Others include 7 (4 1sts and 6 money spots), 3 (3 1sts and 7 money spots), 8 (3 1sts and 6 money spots), and 6 (6 money spots). The worst thus far? 10 (1 1st place spot and no other money spots). Others include 11 (0 1sts and 2 money spots), 13 (1 and 2), 14 (1 and 2) and 15 (1 and 2).

It's interesting that 12 is the best, yet 10, 11, 13, 14 and 15 have yielded the fewest money finishes. Coincidence? Probably as not every owner at 12 took the same player. Of the top 9 spots, it's interesting that No. 1 has yielded the fewest money finishes and no first place finishers so far.

I'll update this next week and look at the Top 10 overall as well, but for now these are some interesting numbers to nibble on.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 9:13 am

Here's another interesting point:

Did anyone realize that our second place overall team (MGBS109, Marty Bedell) is SECOND in his league? That's right, our top two teams are from the same league, New York 5. Moneymaker has the advantage in both categories right now, an improvement of $88,125 that the two are fighting for! Wow.

Another team in the Top 10 overall, FJ Fantasy Sports (Jeff Peters), is seventh overall but second in Las Vegas League 2. FJ Fantasy Sports is one-half point behind Team Petit for the league title, so it should be a wild finish.

We'll watch all of these finishes and see how they play out. Good luck everyone.

viper · Post by **viper** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 10:07 am

Another way of looking at draft positions is to see how much league money each of the 15 draft positions produce. Giving equal dollars to the two ties for third, the 7th & 12th draft positions are the most productive.

PRIZE ..DRAFT SLOT

$22500 .... 7

$22500 .... 12

$20000 .... 3

$19250 .... 8

$15750 .... 5

$13250 .... 2

$ 9750 .... 6

$ 6000 .... 9

$ 5750 .... 14

$ 5750 .... 15

$ 5000 .... 10

$ 4250 .... 1

$ 3500 .... 11

$ 3250 .... 4

$ 2500 .... 13

Drafting in the middle third is marginally better than either end with the back end being worse.

$56500 .... 1 thru 5

$62500 .... 6 thru 10

$40000 .... 11 thru 15

This may change in the final week but last season I wrote in a CREATiVESPORTS article that the best to worse draft spots were middle to front to end.

Looking at league results is probably the best way of viewing better draft slots. Overall money skews things too much for any analysis.

Finally, in response to your Sept 19 post, I also wondered about the possibility of the overall winner not even being a league champ.

I admit this is a reach but then again, it isn't too far of a reach.

The loser of the NY5 battle could end up as the overall champion. Wouldn't that be unbelieveable.

NY5

1. Moneymakers 139.5

2. MGBS109 133.0

Overall

1. Doughboys 2593.5

2. Moneymakers 2583.5

3. MGSB109 2569.5

[ September 26, 2005, 04:12 PM: Message edited by: viper ]

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Tue Sep 27, 2005 1:31 am

I unfortunately drafted in the #1 spot. Although I was confortable in whom I would get in that spot (ARod) I feared the worst for the rest of my draft. I firmly believe that managers on each end of the draft tend to reach more for players because of either the fear that a certain player will not be there next time around or the fear of a particular position losing depth next time around. I think managers drafting in the middle can more easily let players come to them. At #1 or #15 you just don't have that luxury because you will end up being boxed into a corner on certain positions or needs.

I know it would take some serious analysis to prove this, but my instincts tell me there is certainly some truth to this hypothesis.

[ September 27, 2005, 07:36 AM: Message edited by: nydownunder ]

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Tue Sep 27, 2005 3:07 am

Originally posted by nydownunder:

I unfortunately drafted in the #1 spot. Although I was confortable in whom I would get in that spot (ARod) I feared the worst for the rest of my draft. I firmly believe that managers on each end of the draft tend to reach more for players because of either the fear that a certain player will not be there next time around or the fear of a particular position losing depth next time around. I think managers drafting in the middle can more easily let players come to them. At #1 or #15 you just don't have that luxury because you will end up being boxed into a corner on certain positions or needs.

I know it would take some serious analysis to prove this, but my instincts tell me there is certainly some truth to this hypothesis. As a first year guy I was fortunate enough to draft right in the middle- As nice as it is to have Pujols or Arod to build around I agree. How can you not get caught dry in a run on a position going 30 picks between guys. Also do you ever really get the totally undervalued guy to fall right in to your lap?