Greg's Latest Column On Year of the Pitcher II

[Greg Ambrosius]

Here is this week's column that also can be found on Rotowire.com and BaseballHQ.com from yours truly:

Fantasy owners can certainly tell you that 2011 was the Year of the Pitcher. Just when they were accustomed to the Steroid Era and trained to take power-hitters early in their drafts, along comes the damn Dead Ball Era – at least compared to the Steroid Era – and now everyone is talking about pitching, pitching, pitching.

Did we really have to clean up the game THAT MUCH? What was so wrong with 73-home run seasons?

Okay, just kidding there. Baseball is back to its roots where good pitching can beat good hitting anyday. Now fantasy owners have to adjust and change their draft plans slightly. Now an ace who can dominate four categories has to be looked at more closely. You can’t just take hitters with your first eight picks and hope to find starting pitching value in the mid to later rounds. That won’t win titles in the Year of the Pitcher.

If you don’t believe me, look at these facts from STATS:

** MLB teams averaged 4.28 runs per game in 2011, the lowest since 1992’s 4.12 and down from a Steroids Era peak of 5.14 in 2000.

** The home run average was down to 0.94 each team per game, also the lowest in 19 years and a sharp drop from 1.17 in 2000.

** The major league batting average of .255 was the lowest since 1989.

** The 3.94 ERA was a level last seen in 1992.

** Justin Verlander also just won the AL MVP Award, the first pitcher to win that award since Dennis Eckersley in 1992 and the first starting pitcher to do that in the AL since Roger Clemens in 1986. Verlander won the AL's pitching Triple Crown, going 24-5 with a 2.40 ERA and 250 strikeouts, the most wins in the major leagues since Oakland's Bob Welch went 27-6 in 1990.

Many fantasy teams were led to league titles by Verlander and NL Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw, so you’d have to expect these aces to be picked earlier this year than last year, right? Nope. Old habits are hard to break and starting pitchers still won’t go too high even during Year of the Pitcher II. Last year eight starting pitchers went in the Top 45 picks in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) and right now seven pitchers are going in the Top 45. Let’s look at the top starters and see what bargains might be found after them:

First 2 Rounds: Last year Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum and Felix Hernandez were consensus picks in the Top 30 overall. This year it’s looking like Kershaw, Halladay, Verlander, Lincecum and Cliff Lee could all go in the Top 30. Here’s where they are being drafted in early NFBC pay leagues: Kershaw (15-21), Halladay (17-21), Verlander (22-29), Lincecum (26-29) and Lee (28-32). While nothing is a given when it comes to starting pitchers, these five sure seem like solid fantasy aces.

Rounds 3 and 4: Last year there were 13-14 starting pitchers going in the first four rounds and this year the same number of SPs are again going in the Top 60 overall. Last year the third and fourth rounds produced duds like Josh Johnson and Ubaldo Jimenez, but they also produced studs like Verlander, Kershaw and Jared Weaver. This year you can find the following aces in these rounds: CC Sabathia (picks 34-42), Hernandez (39-43), Weaver (49-50), Dan Haren (50-56), David Price (45-51), Ian Kennedy (54-58), Cole Hamels (50-55) and Zach Greinke (54-59). These pitchers are slightly below the Top 5, but you can certainly build a solid staff around any of these.

Looking For Bargains: Players coming off injuries are also ripe as bargains, but that all depends on when you’re able to draft them. Stephen Strasburg is currently going around picks 60-64 as he showed in five late season appearances that his arm looks good. In 24 innings he struck out 24 and posted a 1.50 ERA and a 0.71 WHIP. As the 14th SP going off the board, he could still be a bargain. Adam Wainwright missed all of last season after undergoing elbow surgery, but should return healthy for spring training and is going between 85th and 90th overall, outside the Top 20 among all SPs. Josh Johnson is also going around 100 overall after having an ADP of 59 last year. He should be fully recovered from abdominal and shoulder woes last year and appears to be on a much better team. Expect a bounceback from Jon Lester, whose ADP right now is around 65 after being at 37 in the NFBC last season. He will perform to expected levels this year.

Where are the sleepers?: They are tough to find these days, so let’s look for values rather than sleepers. Depending upon the competition in your league, Tampa’s Matt Moore could have value. The consensus Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2011, Moore is going in the Top 110 in NFBC drafts after striking out 210 in 153 innings last year in the minors and excelling for the Rays in the playoffs. Seattle’s Michael Pineda may have faded down the stretch last year, but he has star ability. I think he bounces back strongly and more than adds value where he’s being drafted now (around 110-115). Going right around the same spot is Atlanta’s Brandon Beachy, who struck out 169 batters in 141.2 IP, while holding hitters to a .236 average. This guy can be very good. Also take a chance on a bounceback season by Ubaldo Jimenez, who is still just 27 and a bargain where he’s being drafted now (137-147).

Yu Darvish is going to be a hot commodity if he comes to the Major Leagues. He hasn’t been posted by Nippon yet, but it’s possible he could go for over $50 million if he’s posted. Last year he went 18-6 with a 1.44 ERA and 276 strikeouts, an average of 10 strikeouts per nine innings. He is 6’5”, 200 pounds and boasts a mid-90s fastball. Where he goes on Draft Day is still a mystery, but watch this because he could be a great fantasy find at the right spot.

The Year of the Pitcher II is coming to theaters near year in 2012. Be prepared for it, but don’t overvalue starting pitchers too much. At the end of the day, the aces still hold the same fantasy value as before in the eyes of fantasy owners. They’re just doing their jobs with much better numbers.

(Greg Ambrosius is the founder of the National Fantasy Baseball Championship and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hall of Fame and the Fantasy Sports Trade Association’s Hall of Fame. For more information on the NFBC, contact him at [email protected] or go to nfbc.stats.com).

[Gekko]

Great read Greg!!

I just started my prep this past weekend. So while I don’t know a lot right now (relatively), I’ll chime in on a couple players…

1. Halladay has been solid gold in past years. I’ve owned him on a lot of teams. He does turn 35 years old, but I think he still has a couple really good years left.
2. Sabathia’s elbow/shoulder have to break down sooner or later, don’t they? The workload has to catch up at some point. PASS
3. Strasburg is interesting. On one hand, in 2010 he did possess a wicked fastball and very good secondary pitches. His 2011 numbers look good, however it was a limited sample size (5 games) against some suspect offenses (Astros without Pence; Marlins without H.Ramirez twice). One has to suspect he will be less dominant and is on an innings cap this year…likely around 160 innings. The innings cap coupled with pitching for a bad Nationals team and one has to wonder if he will see double digit wins.
4. Even though his wins went down 7 and his ERA went up almost three quarters of a run, David Price really excelled last year. His inning increased by 16 and his strikeouts went up 30 while his walks went down 16!! Talk about a season of skill consolidation!! He had a very dominant season last year, but it didn’t show up in his surface numbers. Would anyone be surprised if we witnessed a “Kershaw” type breakout this year?
5. Jimenez is a pig that I won’t draft this year.

[Gekko]

anyone think Daniel Bard could be a nice sleeper? i know it doesn't seem possible right now, but could he be close to the value that lester will provide this year?

[Greg Ambrosius]

anyone think Daniel Bard could be a nice sleeper? i know it doesn't seem possible right now, but could he be close to the value that lester will provide this year?

Over the last three years he's pitched a total of 197 innings, with a high of 74 innings in 2010. I'm surprised by this move and really wonder how many innings he could throw next year as a starter. I actually thought he had the fastball to be a closer one day, but the Red Sox obviously think otherwise. Todd or anyone else in the Boston area, what are your thoughts on this move to the rotation?

[Winston's Empire]

Very nice article Greg.
As a guy who "sinned" on pitching in all of my leagues last year and over trusted my ability to find sleepers and mid round value in pitching, I will not make this mistake again in 2012.

I also find Daniel Bard interesting this year, but I don't see him being a huge value as a starter at least this year. His innings will likely be limited in his first year as a starter and seeing hitters a 2nd and 3rd time in a game will be tougher for him.
If I were the Red Sox, I would make Bard their closer and make the move if possible to go get Gio Gonzalez, who in my opinion could make a move on a better team to ACE Level.

[Gekko]

anyone think Daniel Bard could be a nice sleeper? i know it doesn't seem possible right now, but could he be close to the value that lester will provide this year?

Over the last three years he's pitched a total of 197 innings, with a high of 74 innings in 2010. I'm surprised by this move and really wonder how many innings he could throw next year as a starter. I actually thought he had the fastball to be a closer one day, but the Red Sox obviously think otherwise. Todd or anyone else in the Boston area, what are your thoughts on this move to the rotation?

cap is probably around 160. should provide huge Ks and good wins.

[Gekko]

Very nice article Greg.
I also find Daniel Bard interesting this year, but I don't see him being a huge value as a starter at least this year. His innings will likely be limited in his first year as a starter and seeing hitters a 2nd and 3rd time in a game will be tougher for him.

while he pitches, he should provide good value. where do u see him going in the early slow drafts? he's not a single round guy yet, is he?

[Winston's Empire]

Very nice article Greg.
I also find Daniel Bard interesting this year, but I don't see him being a huge value as a starter at least this year. His innings will likely be limited in his first year as a starter and seeing hitters a 2nd and 3rd time in a game will be tougher for him.

while he pitches, he should provide good value. where do u see him going in the early slow drafts? he's not a single round guy yet, is he?

No, not for me he's not Gekko! I drafted him in he 20-23 rounds last year as a non starter. As a closer I could surely see him in the first 9 rounds, but as a starter he would be no more than a 5 or 6 starter in his first year for me.
Round 13 - 15 sound fair if he moves to the rotation?

[Gekko]

more Ks this year...lester or m.moore?

[Gekko]

C.J. Wilson a top 10 starting pitcher moving out of the Texas Bandbox? Top 5?

[Winston's Empire]

Lester and HELL NO Wilson isnt a top 5 or 10 to me!

[Gekko]

Lester and HELL NO Wilson isnt a top 5 or 10 to me!

i see a well known fantasy site has wilson in their top 10 and moore in their top 20

[Likewhat17]

I haven't worked on my pitcher projections just yet, I'm finishing up my offensive numbers today.

Matt Moore is a guy that I like quite a bit, and I think will provide more value than Strasburg will relative to where they are drafted.

Daniel Bard I'm not buying into just yet. His minor league track record as a starter doesn't give me a whole lot of confidence, and I think Boston will realize that he's far more valuable as the 8th or 9th inning guy.

C.J. Wilson I'm undecided on. I've never really liked the guy, but the move to Anaheim obviously improves his numbers. An early guess is that I have him in the 12-15 range of SP.

[Gekko]

Zach Britton...His slider is considered a plus pitch and a bat misser, but he threw it only 12 percent of the time in 2011. If he doubles that % in 2012: B.R.E.A.K.O.U.T.

[751542]

Zach Britton...His slider is considered a plus pitch and a bat misser, but he threw it only 12 percent of the time in 2011. If he doubles that % in 2012: B.R.E.A.K.O.U.T.

or tjs surgery, slider #1 pitch to blowout elbow!

[Gekko]

Zach Britton...His slider is considered a plus pitch and a bat misser, but he threw it only 12 percent of the time in 2011. If he doubles that % in 2012: B.R.E.A.K.O.U.T.

or tjs surgery, slider #1 pitch to blowout elbow!

don't tell that to owners of
Ervin Santana
Bud Norris
Edwin Jackson
Madison Bumgarner
Michael Pineda
Ryan Dempster

The above list throws a slider OVER 30% of the time.

[751542]

Zach Britton...His slider is considered a plus pitch and a bat misser, but he threw it only 12 percent of the time in 2011. If he doubles that % in 2012: B.R.E.A.K.O.U.T.

or tjs surgery, slider #1 pitch to blowout elbow!

don't tell that to owners of
Ervin Santana
Bud Norris
Edwin Jackson
Madison Bumgarner
Michael Pineda
Ryan Dempster

The above list throws a slider OVER 30% of the time.

and in ALL the leagues i was in i had pineda in 1 league, the rest 0

[BaseonBallz21]

New to the Boards but glad to be a part of NFBC.

The slider does have its advantages too:
9 Norris
10 Dempster
12 Bumgarner
in K per 9 right around 8.5.

But also in the Top 20 for pitches thrown... Its definatly an out pitch but misses the zone quite abit. Britton is the one i'm watching, its the off-season work out of Matusz. Dissappointing year (injury too ) but young enough to have a bounce back.