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Reds Acquire Latos For Alonso, Grandal, Volquez
By Steve Adams [December 17 at 12:34pm CST]
12:34pm: The Reds have announced on their official Twitter feed that they've acquired Latos for Alonso, Volquez, Yasmani Grandal, and Brad Boxberger.

12:29pm: Troy Renck of the Denver Post tweets that Edinson Volquez is also headed to San Diego in the deal.

12:11pm: The Reds have acquired Mat Latos from the Padres, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, and Yonder Alonso is among the players headed to the Padres in exchange.

Cincinnati has made no secret about wanting to bolster its rotation, and adding Latos does so in a big way. Latos turned 24 just over a week ago, but already has more than two full seasons under his belt. From 2010-11, the right-hander accumulated a 3.21 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, and a 43.7% groundball rate. Both FIP (3.09) and SIERA (3.33) like Latos quite a bit, and he's not yet arbitration eligible. He'll pair with Johnny Cueto atop the Reds' rotation.

Alonso, who turns 25 early next season, turned heads with an explosive showing toward the tail end of 2011. He hit .330/.398/.545 down the stretch, albeit in a small sample size of 98 plate appearances. The Reds took Alonso seventh overall in the 2008 draft, and he's ranked in Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects each of the past three seasons. He's trended in the wrong direction, however, ranking 35th, 45th, and 73rd, respectively, from 2009-2011. In 192 Triple-A plate appearances, he owns a .296/.364/.478 triple slash line.

It's unclear as of yet where the Padres view Alonso fitting in, as they also have Anthony Rizzo as a first base option. Rizzo, 22, is considerably younger than Alonso, so it's possible that his struggles in the Majors have the Friars convinced he could use a full season of work in Triple-A, or he himself could become a trade chip. San Diego could also slot Alonso into a corner outfield spot, although scouts agree he's better suited for first base.

At first it seemed like a good deal for Cin to me, but now it seems like they gave up a ton o get Latos! Thoughts?

wow, tough for latos's value to move down...but i think it just did. a couple more wins at the expense of his era

Gekko wrote:wow, tough for latos's value to move down...but i think it just did. a couple more wins at the expense of his era

Could not agree more! Tough park!

lol. don't let gecko fool U, he's moved Latos up if anything. Mat has pitched just fine away from Petco in his career.

Cincinnati kills two birds with one stone.
They get a blossoming pitcher in Latos and eases Dusty Baker's mind in having to play kids over the adults.
Alonso and Grandal were blocked at the Major League level, so this speeds up regular playing time for both. Alonso, most likely, steps into the lineup on day one. Grandal, a probable late in the year regular.
Expectations are tempered on both prospects by the park they will be hitting at.
There have been questions about Latos arm and its health in the past. Its Cincinnati's problem now.
Baseball-wise, I like the San Diego side of the trade. Alonso can hit, now. Grandal later. And Volquez is electric, but sshort circuited last year. Volquez is the wild card in the trade.
Fantasy-wise, Latos takes a big hit. He goes to a club with a Manager who's not adept at handling pitchers. Also going from a big ball park to a small one. And, the Cincinnati bullpen is usually an after thought in Cincinnati reckoning.
Alonso is helped by playing time and hindered by ball park and a lineup around him that is below average.
Grandal, most likely, has his Major League arrival sped up.
Volquez could be the biggest beneficiary. But, when drafting him, Dirty Harry has to come to mind in asking ourselves, 'Do you feel lucky, Punk, well do ya?'

NorCalAtlFan wrote:lol. don't let gecko fool U, he's moved Latos up if anything. Mat has pitched just fine away from Petco in his career.

Poor Gekko. Nobody ever believes him.

From a baseball sense, don't overlook Brad Boxberger, the reliever in the deal. His K:BB is pretty impressive and he keeps the ball in the yard. Factor in how well San Diego manages their bullpen and of course PETCO, and Boxberger could be a nice little "throw in" -- the kind that can be a closer in a couple years.

The Mighty Men wrote:

NorCalAtlFan wrote:lol. don't let gecko fool U, he's moved Latos up if anything. Mat has pitched just fine away from Petco in his career.

Poor Gekko. Nobody ever believes him.

jack - u need to get your avatar uploaded!!!!

NorCalAtlFan wrote:lol. don't let gecko fool U, he's moved Latos up if anything. Mat has pitched just fine away from Petco in his career.

last year, latos had a road era of 3.68 and a road whip of 1.22. NOW that he is pitching half his games in a hitter's haven this year, expectations should be tempered. when he drops an ERA ~4 and a whip ~1.30, don't say u weren't warned

The Reds are taking some heat for this deal, but MLB's Ken Rosenthal doesn't agree:

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/cinc ... ade-121711

This probably isn't the right thread for this story, but it's interesting how Hanley Ramirez seems to be against any move to third base. So much for embracing the Jose Reyes signing. A lot of folks are counting on Hanley to bounce back in 2012 offensively, but will he really bounce back if his mindset is already mixed up?

http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/12/16/2 ... iting.html

Greg Ambrosius wrote:This probably isn't the right thread for this story, but it's interesting how Hanley Ramirez seems to be against any move to third base. So much for embracing the Jose Reyes signing. A lot of folks are counting on Hanley to bounce back in 2012 offensively, but will he really bounce back if his mindset is already mixed up?

http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/12/16/2 ... iting.html

I'm not at all surprised at the fallout. Loria and Samson are not exactly exemplary when it comes to communications -- I doubt that they had Beinfest approach Hanley before signing Reyes.

Plus, look at all the skating Beinfest was doing in that piece you quoted:

But asked if Ramirez has made it clear to the organization that he would accept a move to third, Beinfest said, “The conversations we’ve had, we’re going to keep between us. But there’s been quite a bit of communication. (...)

Another Marlins official said the team would like Ramirez to publicly embrace the signing of Reyes and his move to third base, but they haven’t pressured him to do so. (...)

An associate of Ramirez said any conversations about his future would remain between him and the team.

(emphasis added)

The Ramirez camp will continue to ask for a trade. Loria realizes that he may not get maximum value if he's forced to move him on Ramirez's timeline, rather than the team's. If this had been resolved or was near a satisfactory resolution, there would not have been a need for "quite a bit of communication." Ramirez is being pressured by Beinfest and his carpetbagger bosses. This ain't over just yet.

I like it. Volquez could settle down in Petco and Latos' elbow is questionable - I'd be mildly surprised if he doesn't end up having TJ surgery within the next two years. Toss in 3 more upside guys coming over and it has the potential to be a huge deal for SD.

I think Latos will be fine wherever he pitches. I do not know about his elbow issues as I haven't seen him pitch much nor have I read much on it. I do know he has not been on the DL (though he did have shoulder bursitis early last year). Latos has had a bit of a fly ball tendency, so expect his HR rate to go up.

The move to me is neutral for Volquez in every way except he gets a plus for escaping from Dusty. Petco seems to have advantages mainly for flyball pitchers. Volquez is a groundballer who has not had a flyball rate higher than 34% since '08. His HR issues last year I think were an anomaly. He had three games where he gave up three homeruns each and one of those was on the road. Volquez's issue is wildness and even Petco cannot help you find the plate.

I think the trade is great for San Diego because of Alonso and maybe even Grandal. I think it also means that San Diego does not think Blanks or Rizzo will pan out.

Edwards Kings wrote: Volquez's issue is wildness and even Petco cannot help you find the plate.

No, but a coach that convinces you that with fences so far away, a pitches does not have to be so fine and should just throw strikes and let his defense do the work could help.

Not saying this IS going to happen, just suggesting that there is a possibility that if Volquez can change his approach in a MENTAL fashion, he could indeed walk fewer hitters.

Sometimes, a little wildness is a good thing. Especially in Cincinnati.
Last year, Bronson Arroyo had the least amount of walks he has ever given up as a starter in his career.
The result was that he had one of the worst years of his career.
Arroyo finished the year with the unusual stat of giving up more home runs (46) than walks (45).

By the way, Josh Tomlin also gave up more homers than walks last year.
The last time a season long starter 'accomplished' this was 2006 when Carlos Silva and Jon Lieber both turned the trick.
Silva and Lieber did it twice.
Brad Radke and Rick Reed also did it twice.
Some quality pitchers that have done it at least once in their careers are Greg Maddux, David Wells, and Robin Roberts.

ToddZ wrote:

Edwards Kings wrote: Volquez's issue is wildness and even Petco cannot help you find the plate.

No, but a coach that convinces you that with fences so far away, a pitches does not have to be so fine and should just throw strikes and let his defense do the work could help.

Not saying this IS going to happen, just suggesting that there is a possibility that if Volquez can change his approach in a MENTAL fashion, he could indeed walk fewer hitters.

Agreed, especially if it is mental and not mechanical. There are some guys who are going to be wild. I just am not sure if he can "control" it. Balsley appears to have had some success in San Diego but Price is no slouch in Cincinnati. Maybe the difference between Black and Baker will make the difference.

If Volquez could keep the free passes under 90, he would probably end up with a 1.30 WHIP. He just reminds me of Russ Ortiz with a little more gas.

Another possible fallout of this deal. With Latos in the rotation and the Reds seemingly moving on from Cordero as closer, does this not make Chapman the leading candidate to be the closer in 2012?

Ryan C wrote:Another possible fallout of this deal. With Latos in the rotation and the Reds seemingly moving on from Cordero as closer, does this not make Chapman the leading candidate to be the closer in 2012?

I think the Reds will still try to keep Chapman on the path of converting to a starter. I'd gamble that they end up bringing Cordero back on a one year deal.

Anybody who had Volquez last year knows how tough it was to watch the first inning of any of his starts. He was just HORRENDOUS early on and seemed to be in trouble each time. In 20 starts last year, he gave up 8 homers, 22 RBIs and an amazing 21 walks. IN THE FIRST INNING OF 20 STARTS!! Opposing hitters batted .338 off him in the first inning with a .472 on-base percentage. In 20 starts, he faced only 10 batters after the sixth inning, averaging a mere 5 IP per start.

Of course, in his lone start last year at Petco he earned the win in six innings of three-hit ball, with three walks and five strikeouts. Anything is possible in Petco, but I know I won't be drafting him again. I can't draft someone I can't bear to watch even in the first inning.

These great splits are all on STATS Pass, which many of you had access to early last season. This is a fantastic scouting tool and analysis tool for player stats. Once Registration is live, you'll see how you can get access to STATS Pass as soon as you officially sign up. That's part of the good news we'll have when Registration goes live.