NFBC Message Boards

Okay, this is as much for me as it is for you. We've had spring like weather here the last couple of weeks and it almost feels like spring training should be starting tomorrow. But instead, reality is going to hit us here in Wisconsin tomorrow. Forecasts are calling for between 5 and 8 inches of snow tomorrow, just in time to make the Frozen Tundra look good on Sunday afternoon.

I'll be at Lambeau Field on Sunday, cheering on the Green and Gold. For all you Giants' fans, you can taunt me here!! I can take it. I like our home field advantage this year, although the Giants sure know what it takes to win on the road. We haven't forgotten the 2007 NFC Championship Game.

Anyway, let's talk some baseball tomorrow afternoon. We'll be snowed in and Tom and I are ready to have our first Live Chat of the 2012 season. I don't know how many people are perusing the Message Boards, but for those of you who are here each day load me up with some NFBC or baseball questions and I'll answer by the time we meet tomorrow afternoon. As you know, I have the 4th pick in the SiriusXM/FSTA draft next Monday, so let's talk about players I should be targeting and what I should do from the 4th spot. Lots to talk about tomorrow.

Bring on the event questions, MLB questions, and more right here. I'm ready to interact and get this train rolling. I LOVE our start with all of these Slow Drafts and full Auction Leagues. Next comes the Main Events and the Online Championships. Let's keep it going and please watch the signups so that you're not left out of any league you want to get into.

Okay, what questions do you have for me? I WANT 'EM!!! GO PACK GO!!

Ok, I know you guys know the Brew Crew inside and out. Big changes a coming, probably no Fielder, maybe no Braun for a couple months. Any young guys that can make a difference on the horizon? What is your best guess for the opening day batting order?

Who ends up closing on the southside of Chicago, in Baltimore, and Oakland?

Which established closer do you think losing his job first (the Ryan Franklin so to speak) ?

Thx for taking the time.

The NFBC Main Event is officially ONE-THIRD full on Jan. 11th as we have 130 official signups out of a possible 390 spots. That's a nice number on this date. Don't be afraid to secure your spot by signing up online as we won't charge anything until Feb. 15th.

Let's keep things rolling and sell out the Main Event for the 8th straight year!! That would be nice.

See ya in the Chat Room later today. Keep the questions coming. I don't have the answers yet, but I'll make 'em up soon enough!!

Greg and Tom,

Love the chats:

1) Last year was a peak year for the NFBC in terms of stolen bases (i.e. in the Main in 2004, it took 139 SB to garner 80% of available overall points in that category, and through climbing pretty steadily over the years, last year it took 181 to get the coveted 80%). Do you think this trend has peaked, will continue to climb, or will regress? And why?

2) Conversely, after two "Year of the Pitchers", guys hitting 30 HR are getting fewer and fewer (used to be able to count on at least 30 guys hitting 30 HR or more, but the last couple of years have averaged 21). Do you see any new blood on the horizon that have the ability and will get the opportunity to crack 30 HR this year?

3) Dave Duncan is taking a leave of absence to take care of his wife. That plus losing Pujols, how have you discounted the St. Louis pitching staff as a result?

4) I look out at the rosters of the NL West and no clear leader seems to present themselves as early favorites to win the division. Who do you like and how many games do you think it will take to win that division?

5) What are the odds that the winner of the Main Event comes from my league three years in a row?

This is a unique year in that this is the first time that the Final Four weekend coincides with the Main Event. I noticed that you may try to have some TV hookups for the XII draft taking place during the games. Guessing that tip time for the first game of the final four will be in the area of 3:30pm (pacific) with the action running until about 9pm any thought of securing one of the other draft rooms ( so as to not disturb the live draft ) for an NFBC Final Four party in Las Vegas at the Bellagio? Be great cap to Main Event day with all of the completed draft boards generating some NFBC talk amongst the participants and having the Final Four as a backdrop. May leave such a lasting impression, you'll have people hooked for years to come.

I know it's gravy. But, it was really good gravy...
Do you think the weekly prizes can make a comeback?

And, we know IT is working on the 'one and hold' for slow drafts, is an audible warning that it is our pick in the works as well?
Maybe an umpire's voice shouting, "YOU'RE UP" or a bat hitting a ball followed by crowd noise?

Sack wrote:This is a unique year in that this is the first time that the Final Four weekend coincides with the Main Event. I noticed that you may try to have some TV hookups for the XII draft taking place during the games. Guessing that tip time for the first game of the final four will be in the area of 3:30pm (pacific) with the action running until about 9pm any thought of securing one of the other draft rooms ( so as to not disturb the live draft ) for an NFBC Final Four party in Las Vegas at the Bellagio? Be great cap to Main Event day with all of the completed draft boards generating some NFBC talk amongst the participants and having the Final Four as a backdrop. May leave such a lasting impression, you'll have people hooked for years to come.

This is a great idea and something I'm sure we can do. With the Final Four just having one game at a time on national TV, getting the feed to the game will be easy. Getting a big screen TV in a room is also possible at a cost. We also could do some food and beverages in that room at a cost per person. Nothing is free at the Bellagio as I'm sure all of you can imagine, but getting us all in one room to watch these two games could be a very good experience as Kenny suggests.

Let's create a separate thread to get some feedback and if folks would be willing to pony up to make it happen I'm all for it. We'd need to have an idea of how many people would like to stick around and do it, though. I love the idea and I know we can do it, but I also have an idea of the costs involved. Still, depending on how we want to handle the food and beverages, it's definitely doable and would be a BLAST for sure. GREAT IDEA.

Greg, Any of us that has tried to get a group get together for this event understands that there will be a cost. Figuring you have a foot in the door with the business you have provided the Bellagio it makes a great location. Be more than willing to kick in whatever fee is deemed necessary to keep the group together and turn Main Event day into a true celebration. While we may get another NCAA weekend, having it fall perfect with the Final Four is something I hope we can take advantage this season.

Sack wrote:Greg, Any of us that has tried to get a group get together for this event understands that there will be a cost. Figuring you have a foot in the door with the business you have provided the Bellagio it makes a great location. Be more than willing to kick in whatever fee is deemed necessary to keep the group together and turn Main Event day into a true celebration. While we may get another NCAA weekend, having it fall perfect with the Final Four is something I hope we can take advantage this season.

Agreed on all. I know we can get it done and I agree everyone would understand that our beers will be easier to get from a private bartender than in any overcrowded sportsbook. I'm on it.

Greg Ambrosius wrote:

Sack wrote:This is a unique year in that this is the first time that the Final Four weekend coincides with the Main Event. I noticed that you may try to have some TV hookups for the XII draft taking place during the games. Guessing that tip time for the first game of the final four will be in the area of 3:30pm (pacific) with the action running until about 9pm any thought of securing one of the other draft rooms ( so as to not disturb the live draft ) for an NFBC Final Four party in Las Vegas at the Bellagio? Be great cap to Main Event day with all of the completed draft boards generating some NFBC talk amongst the participants and having the Final Four as a backdrop. May leave such a lasting impression, you'll have people hooked for years to come.

This is a great idea and something I'm sure we can do. With the Final Four just having one game at a time on national TV, getting the feed to the game will be easy. Getting a big screen TV in a room is also possible at a cost. We also could do some food and beverages in that room at a cost per person. Nothing is free at the Bellagio as I'm sure all of you can imagine, but getting us all in one room to watch these two games could be a very good experience as Kenny suggests.

Let's create a separate thread to get some feedback and if folks would be willing to pony up to make it happen I'm all for it. We'd need to have an idea of how many people would like to stick around and do it, though. I love the idea and I know we can do it, but I also have an idea of the costs involved. Still, depending on how we want to handle the food and beverages, it's definitely doable and would be a BLAST for sure. GREAT IDEA.

Ken, great idea!

Greg as you know for football over the years, other contests have held Thursday night viewing parties for the Thursday game before the drafts and Sunday viewing parties for the other games of the first weekend after the drafts. Though I've yet to attend one, from what I understand they've always been heavily attended and for the most part big successes. I also know that oftentimes there was an optional fee associated with it for anyone who wished to take part.

Now this is a little different as this would be for hoops while we're all baseball players, but most of us are big sports fans as well and we are talking the Final Four. Who wouldn't be watching it (and possibly maybe even placing a wager on it) anyway? If good food and drink is there, the draft boards from the Main Event, many of our fellow draftees to chat with, and the games on the big screen, I think it could be a big hit.

I'd be there and would ante up a fair fee. It'd probably save me money as the cost would probably be less than I'd have on a hand of blackjack or roll of the dice in craps or all-in call at the poker table anyway.

Greg,
Will you keep us updated on the ban states? I was stunned when this came out. I had planned to do a couple of NFBC online drafts at the least. I know I was the one that ask this long ago but was hoping the answer would be yes it's ok.
At the time the answer was it's ok. I'm not sure what changed that? What happened?

What are the main positions you attack in an AL only or NL only auction. I know they could be different for each league, but what would you target first? Also, what kind of strategy would you use this year in an AL or NL only auction if you were secretly registered as ANONYMOUS.

Somehow I've manged to avoid the Vegas draft two years in a row and therefore have never actually been to the Belaggio draft. What kind of food/drink can I expect to see in the spread? Feel free to use past examples if nothing is finalized. Also, will the food be out before the draft or come out an hour or two after it starts? I want to plan my breakfast! Thanks!

DOUGHBOYS wrote:I know it's gravy. But, it was really good gravy...
Do you think the weekly prizes can make a comeback?

And, we know IT is working on the 'one and hold' for slow drafts, is an audible warning that it is our pick in the works as well?
Maybe an umpire's voice shouting, "YOU'RE UP" or a bat hitting a ball followed by crowd noise?

We did have a sound in the NFFC draft room this summer when your pick was up and that will return to the live draft room when the NFBC satellite leagues kick off in February. Sorry, no "Batter Up" or the sound of a bat hitting a ball, but there will be a sound that let's you know when you're up. That isn't there for the Slow Drafts because we didn't feel it was needed for those, but look for sound in February in our enhanced draft room.

The weekly prizes were a nice perk in the early years as I had some good contacts at Upper Deck Authenticated and they had some great prizes they needed exposure for. So it worked out well and they were willing to help sponsor those 26 prizes. Unfortunately, the sports memorabilia industry has changed like light-years in the last 9 years and those goodies aren't readily available. That being said, we may provide an opt-in Weekly Prizes contest with your existing teams if folks are interested. It's something we're looking into since we already keep track of the weekly stats for each of our national contests. I know folks would like us to provide the prizes, but outside of that this might be a fun way to keep everyone pushing hard for the best weekly team and it's something that could be done easily in football as well.

More details on whether that will happen this year or not soon. Thanks for asking.

Greg,

When do you start the thread, "Only XXX spots left"? I love that thread, we are at 133 based on the signup page now and I am trying to remember when I started seeing that thread. Was it after the magical number of 195 ('04 entrants) or is it with less than 100 left. I can't remember, but I love logging on to see that tick down...

Rainiers wrote:Ok, I know you guys know the Brew Crew inside and out. Big changes a coming, probably no Fielder, maybe no Braun for a couple months. Any young guys that can make a difference on the horizon? What is your best guess for the opening day batting order?

As much as Tom and I are hoping for that Braun-Fielder combo all year again, we honestly don't see that happening. Braun is not beating the rap on this 50-game suspension and the best we can hope for is a reduction in the number of games if that first test had any chance of being whacky. But I doubt it. So that leaves us with the hope of the Brewers re-signing Fielder and I see nothing more than a 1% chance of that happening.

So here we are, one year after such a fun, fun season and home playoff games that were riveting to be at, we're left with Carlos Gomez playing a prominent role in 2012. YUUUUUUUUUUUCK!! This team will have to survive on pitching and defense through the first 50 games and hope for more pitching and defense after that to even reach .500 this year. It's a shame, but it is what it is. Even with Braun for a full season, repeating as NL Central champs would be tough.

There is nobody who can replace Braun in LF or the 3 hole. With him, the lineup is:

1. Hart
2. Nyjer Morgan
3. Braun
4. Aramis Ramirez
5. Rickie Weeks
6. Mat Gamel
7. Alex Gonzalez
8. Jonathan Lucroy
9. Pitcher

Without him, it's:
1. Nyjer Morgan
2. Carlos Gomez (YUCK)
3. Hart
4. Ramirez
5. Weeks
6. Gamel
7. Gonzalez
8. Lucroy

The Brewers' farm system is thin after giving away their top prospects for Marcum and Greinke, but they do have starting pitchers who can help in another year, and maybe even earlier. First round picks Jed Bradley and Taylor Jungmann are in the plans for 2013, while Jose Lopez is a prospect, too. Wily Peralta could sneak into the pitching rotation at some point and help, too. But offensively, they will be challenged this year.

rockitsauce wrote:Who ends up closing on the southside of Chicago, in Baltimore, and Oakland?

Which established closer do you think losing his job first (the Ryan Franklin so to speak) ?

Thx for taking the time.

Yikes, these are all tough:

White Sox: Likely will start out with Addison Reed, 23, 6'4" RHP. He went from Class A to the majors last year and struck out 111 batters along the way. It's a gamble, but right now he's the best option. Veteran Jesse Crain could close, but he certainly seems like a better option to set the table for Reed. Nestor Molina pitched at Double-A last year and may be a year away.

Baltimore: Very few good options right now here as the Orioles are working on their starting rotation first. Kevin Gregg could be the same bad option as before, with Jim Johnson also still in the mix. Who knows, maybe the Orioles go out and sign Francisco Cordero to a 1-year deal with the market for closers so depressed, or maybe even take a chance on Aardsma. I don't think they're finished finding their 9th inning answer yet.

Oakland: The A's have many more concerns than a closer, so don't be surprised if they just start the year with Brian Fuentes and Joey Devine closing. Devine is probably the better option, but he always seems to get hurt. The guy to watch for is Jordan Norberto, who has a lively arm if he could ever find the plate.

Since half the closers don't finish the season in their same roles, I guess I could flip a coin and likely succeed. I guess I'll say Huston Street, who will find a way to get hurt before we turn the calendar on May.

Greg, Any word on how the Marlins new park will play--roof open vs. closed, etc.? Seems like they're keeping the dimensions somewhat similar to the old park.

Edwards Kings wrote:Greg and Tom,

Love the chats:

1) Last year was a peak year for the NFBC in terms of stolen bases (i.e. in the Main in 2004, it took 139 SB to garner 80% of available overall points in that category, and through climbing pretty steadily over the years, last year it took 181 to get the coveted 80%). Do you think this trend has peaked, will continue to climb, or will regress? And why?

2) Conversely, after two "Year of the Pitchers", guys hitting 30 HR are getting fewer and fewer (used to be able to count on at least 30 guys hitting 30 HR or more, but the last couple of years have averaged 21). Do you see any new blood on the horizon that have the ability and will get the opportunity to crack 30 HR this year?

3) Dave Duncan is taking a leave of absence to take care of his wife. That plus losing Pujols, how have you discounted the St. Louis pitching staff as a result?

4) I look out at the rosters of the NL West and no clear leader seems to present themselves as early favorites to win the division. Who do you like and how many games do you think it will take to win that division?

5) What are the odds that the winner of the Main Event comes from my league three years in a row?

I'll do my best here, but obviously I'm speculating as much as the next guy:

1. I think that we're now in the Post-Steroid Era and teams are back to scratching and clawing for every run, rather than waiting for the 3-run home run, so yes stolen bases will continue to be higher than they were in 2004. That being said, when I try to get 185 steals in these early drafts, I'm falling well below that mark. I'm not sure where all of these steals are coming from and my guess is that maybe some of us will just have to settle for 7-8 points in that category instead of 11-12. I'm not finding as many SBs as I'd like right now.

2. Sure, there are plenty of guys who will hit 30 HRs who didn't last year. Obvious guys who have done it in the past include Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez, Carlos Gonzalez. But newbies could be Carlos Santana, maybe even Eric Hosmer or Freddie Freeman. I'd even like to see Billy Butler provide more lift because he could reach 25-30 soon. Paul Goldschmidt certainly has the potential to do it in Arizona and don't discount Matt Wieters, although 30 from any catcher is asking a lot. But yes, we have plenty of new stars who will reach 30 HRs in the next year or two.

3. I certainly won't discount the Cardinals' staff because of these developments, but it can't help. Talent is still talent and I don't see all of these guys forgetting how to pitch. But that being said, Mike Maddux's departure in Milwaukee caused more problems than I anticipated and his arrival was huge for the Rangers. Pitching coaches do matter and Duncan's departure could be more important than LaRussa's departure.

4. Arizona won last year's NL West with 94 wins and I was VERY impressed with them in the playoffs. That's a good, young squad that has some front-line pitching talent coming up. When the Dbacks call up all of their young starting pitchers, this team is going to battle for a World Series title. Seriously, it's going to happen soon. I'd have to pick Arizona, but if the Giants get any offense at all they could return to the top. I'll stick with those two teams.

5. 100% it's going to happen. You're a magnet to that $100,000 grand prize. Now you just have to find a way to get on the other side of that magnet Wayne.

Glenneration X wrote:

Greg Ambrosius wrote:

Sack wrote:This is a unique year in that this is the first time that the Final Four weekend coincides with the Main Event. I noticed that you may try to have some TV hookups for the XII draft taking place during the games. Guessing that tip time for the first game of the final four will be in the area of 3:30pm (pacific) with the action running until about 9pm any thought of securing one of the other draft rooms ( so as to not disturb the live draft ) for an NFBC Final Four party in Las Vegas at the Bellagio? Be great cap to Main Event day with all of the completed draft boards generating some NFBC talk amongst the participants and having the Final Four as a backdrop. May leave such a lasting impression, you'll have people hooked for years to come.

This is a great idea and something I'm sure we can do. With the Final Four just having one game at a time on national TV, getting the feed to the game will be easy. Getting a big screen TV in a room is also possible at a cost. We also could do some food and beverages in that room at a cost per person. Nothing is free at the Bellagio as I'm sure all of you can imagine, but getting us all in one room to watch these two games could be a very good experience as Kenny suggests.

Let's create a separate thread to get some feedback and if folks would be willing to pony up to make it happen I'm all for it. We'd need to have an idea of how many people would like to stick around and do it, though. I love the idea and I know we can do it, but I also have an idea of the costs involved. Still, depending on how we want to handle the food and beverages, it's definitely doable and would be a BLAST for sure. GREAT IDEA.

Ken, great idea!

Greg as you know for football over the years, other contests have held Thursday night viewing parties for the Thursday game before the drafts and Sunday viewing parties for the other games of the first weekend after the drafts. Though I've yet to attend one, from what I understand they've always been heavily attended and for the most part big successes. I also know that oftentimes there was an optional fee associated with it for anyone who wished to take part.

Now this is a little different as this would be for hoops while we're all baseball players, but most of us are big sports fans as well and we are talking the Final Four. Who wouldn't be watching it (and possibly maybe even placing a wager on it) anyway? If good food and drink is there, the draft boards from the Main Event, many of our fellow draftees to chat with, and the games on the big screen, I think it could be a big hit.

I'd be there and would ante up a fair fee. It'd probably save me money as the cost would probably be less than I'd have on a hand of blackjack or roll of the dice in craps or all-in call at the poker table anyway.

Agreed and if MLB decides to keep Opening Day this way, then we'll have our own Final Four annual party each Saturday night. I've got a call into the Bellagio to ask for quotes and make sure we have the space to do this, but it's all possible. I'll start an informal thread later today announcing these plans and just ask for some commitments so we know about how many people we'll have. This is a great idea and yes we'll get it done. And as for football, trust me, we're already working on plans for our own NFL Viewing Party on Thursday night. People keep saying I haven't done that when I've never fully hosted the NFFC on Opening Weekend of the NFL season before. Last year we jumped in with late plans after we saw the opening, but this year we'll have a Viewing Party, trust me. In case you don't know it, I LOVE throwing sports parties, so a Final Four annual party and an NFL Viewing Party each year is right up my alley.

Walla Walla wrote:Greg,
Will you keep us updated on the ban states? I was stunned when this came out. I had planned to do a couple of NFBC online drafts at the least. I know I was the one that ask this long ago but was hoping the answer would be yes it's ok.
At the time the answer was it's ok. I'm not sure what changed that? What happened?

Thanks for taking my call today John and it was good catching up with you again. Stay well and stay in touch.

John had nothing to do with the state of Washington reaching out to us, but unfortunately his home state feels this is a game of chance, not skill. There are six states with very vague state gambling laws and it's our industry's job to either get carveout language in those laws like we have in the federal law or ask for an opinion from each state's Attorney General to clear the way for those state residents to play pay fantasy games. Too many fantasy games are exempting those states because they are unsure of their AG's opinion of pay fantasy games.

That being said, some of you have partners or other state residences. Or maybe you're tired of living in those states and this is the excuse you needed TO GET OUT!! Give me a call at 715-254-5553 if you have questions about playing in the NFBC and we'll discuss.

Nothing will change anytime soon John, but I hope other industry companies join us in trying to get written opinions from these states and maybe clear the air about this. That's kind of what is happening in Maryland:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ros ... 0&denied=1

Greg,

While I completely understand the no trading rule during the season, would you ever consider implementing the ability to trade draft picks?

I am sure with all of the mathematical wizards who participate in the NFBC, there could be some sort of chart constructed (like the NFL uses on draft day) to assign points to draft places. If the points of a draft pick trade fell outside the parameters of the chart, the trade would not be able to take place.

Bob

Walla Walla wrote:Greg,
Will you keep us updated on the ban states? I was stunned when this came out. I had planned to do a couple of NFBC online drafts at the least. I know I was the one that ask this long ago but was hoping the answer would be yes it's ok.
At the time the answer was it's ok. I'm not sure what changed that? What happened?

Actually, I've done some research recently and will add a little more to this:

** Last year, a Louisiana legislator tried to pass a fantasy sports exemption in the state legislature and a conservative group lobbied hard against it, stating that it was sinful. It was defeated 73-16 and there's no plan to bring this back up for vote. As the legislator noted, when you get a defeat like that you don't try again real soon.

wagner13454 wrote:What are the main positions you attack in an AL only or NL only auction. I know they could be different for each league, but what would you target first? Also, what kind of strategy would you use this year in an AL or NL only auction if you were secretly registered as ANONYMOUS.

I guess I enter this type of auctions looking more at stat categories than positions. I look at where the toughest categories to fill are going to be and then attack that way. It might be power, it might be speed, or it might be strikeouts. But I think once I look at that first then I look at position scarcity and what I can get for value as often as I can.

Drafting with Shawn the last couple of years has been interesting. He's not afraid to spend $100 on 3 players and build from there. I always went after one superstar and built around a lot of $20 players. Neither strategy has worked well enough to win a LABR League title, but we did finish 2nd in the AL and 3rd in the NL last year, so maybe we're onto something.