NFBC Message Boards

Okay, I'm back from Las Vegas and now sitting in an icebox that was 7 degrees below zero this morning. Yes, I'm back in Iola. So warm me up with a little baseball talk today.

Let's focus on the SiriusXM draft results which I'll post here. Let's have some fun and look at the good and the bad of my draft and the other draft results. We're not trying to pick on any owner -- including myself -- but trying to learn from what the industry writers are thinking. It will be a fun discussion and maybe we'll all learn from it.

Here is a link to the spreadsheet from the draft:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... n_US#gid=0

Take a look at it and feel free to post some questions before the chat. I'll do my best to answer them as we go this afternoon while trying to do my other duties here. And then I'll set an hour aside at 4 pm ET to discuss the merits of certain picks by me and others. Enjoy and let's get the baseball talk rolling on these message boards. Thanks all.

As one of the others, I can take a break from my consulting duties with the World Wide Leader and offer my insight as well.

ToddZ wrote:As one of the others, I can take a break from my consulting duties with the World Wide Leader and offer my insight as well.

Absolutely. Jump on with us at 4 pm ET. I may need some help explaining my picks!!!

Can you provide any justification for these crazy picks by team #1?

Howard
Wells
Morneau
Figgins

Looking at the round he took these guy he must still be in football mode.

Todd, I am a huge fan of that draft. Really well done. The one pick that threw me was Peralta at 10. I would just assume he goes right back to being the same mediocre player he used to be, but you drafted him like you expect a lot of 2011 in his 2012. What do you like about him? You think he jives well with the park in Detroit?

Cornhusker wrote:Can you provide any justification for these crazy picks by team #1?

Howard
Wells
Morneau
Figgins

Looking at the round he took these guy he must still be in football mode.

Let's just admit that Anthony was willing to take risky picks right from the very first pick. He took Troy Tulowitzki with the first pick in a draft that allowed KDS. He could have chosen 3 or 4 instead of 1 and likely gotten Tulo. But he took the 1st pick and grabbed the guy he wanted. Can't fault him there, but I don't think Tulo has gone No. 1 in any NFBC draft.

Howard's ADP in the NFBC early drafts has been 121. He went 72nd here. To go that high, Howard has to be healthy and productive from May on, I'd say. Too risky for a guy coming off that big of an injury to a key part of his power. There sure were a lot of good players going in Round 7 that I think should have gone ahead of Howard. But if fully healthy....

Wells is an incredible reach with the 97th overall pick. His NFBC ADP is 247. I don't like it.

Morneau is a reach at pick 168, but you never know. His NFBC ADP is 223, but the most recent news that he's still struggling with headaches has dropped him even further.

Figgins' ADP in the NFBC is 502, which means he wouldn't even get picked in this league. He went 241st overall here.

All were major gambles, but it looks like Anthony isn't afraid of gambles.

bjoak wrote:Todd, I am a huge fan of that draft. Really well done. The one pick that threw me was Peralta at 10. I would just assume he goes right back to being the same mediocre player he used to be, but you drafted him like you expect a lot of 2011 in his 2012. What do you like about him? You think he jives well with the park in Detroit?

Thanks Brian. While I obviously was OK with the pick or I would not have made it, drafting with partners often means making concessions at times and Lawr was worried about being left with nothing at the end of the shortstop pool. There are a few guys I would have been fine with later, but since Lawr was very open to my first nine suggestions, it was my turn to be open to his.

I think the power,and hence average will fall, but Peralta has the job and is fairly reliable in terms of health, which counts for something.

Cornhusker wrote:Can you provide any justification for these crazy picks by team #1?

Howard
Wells
Morneau
Figgins

Looking at the round he took these guy he must still be in football mode.

My answer to that is he is drafting based on his rankings and not meshing that with the available ADP data. There is something to be said for going after your guy and spitting on the ADP, but there is also something to be said for being aware of market trends and adapting your draft accordingly.

ToddZ wrote:

Cornhusker wrote:Can you provide any justification for these crazy picks by team #1?

Howard
Wells
Morneau
Figgins

Looking at the round he took these guy he must still be in football mode.

My answer to that is he is drafting based on his rankings and not meshing that with the available ADP data. There is something to be said for going after your guy and spitting on the ADP, but there is also something to be said for being aware of market trends and adapting your draft accordingly.

Todd meant to say "pissing" on those ADPs, but was trying to be politically correct with "spitting." These were more than just specs of fluid, trust me.

FWIW, SiriusXM is replaying the festivities on Sunday afternoon, 1 PM ET.

ToddZ wrote:FWIW, SiriusXM is replaying the festivities on Sunday afternoon, 1 PM ET.

I'll be on soon.

Sorry, I was on a conference call. Okay, let's look at my team. Miguel Cabrera at No. 4 was a no-brainer. I really did want to start my team with Troy Tulowitzki, but Miggy is a GREAT start.

I had 22 offensive guys I ranked ahead of any SP and I had the 23rd overall pick. I never imagined no Starting Pitchers going until my pick. With three picks to go, Granderson, Stanton and McCutchen were all available. I thought for sure Stanton would fall to me, but I really wanted McCutchen. All three then went bang-bang-bang. I honestly didn't even think of a backup plan other than taking the top SP, which I really didn't want to do. I thought a long time before taking Kershaw over Halladay and over either Beltre or Zimmerman.

What would you have done at that point? Remember, this is 13 teams, not 15, so maybe I didn't need to take a SP. But wouldn't you take Kershaw at 23? Someone beat me up over this pick or console me because this one has really haunted me. It threw off my plan of 75-75 in the first three rounds and it led me to Crawford in the 3rd round, which now looks even worse than the gamble I took before his wrist injury.

Have at me. I need to know what you would have done.

Let's look at my Starting Pitchers next. As I said to Jeff Erickson on this morning's SiriuxXM Fantasy Channel, once in that early on a Starting Pitcher you have to go ALL IN. So I knew that I had to concentrate on Starting Pitchers after that and complement my 23-year-old Cy Young winner. This league was so offense heavy that SPs were dropping and dropping. I had planned on taking someone like Yovanni Gallardo in the 6th round, but as my pick came there were too many good options to jump in. So I took Alex Gordon in the 6th round and then so Gallardo and Dan Haren go next. David Price was still on the board 3 picks away and now I was kicking myself for not grabbing Yo or Haren. Thankfully, the two owners before me had other needs and I teamed up Kershaw with Price.

Then I nabbed Madison Bumgarner in the 9th round and Derek Holland in the 16th. I had Holland pegged before the draft, but I'm not sure why he lasted so long. I felt like with these 4 starters I had almost 800 strikeouts among them. So my next few pitchers needed to be more conservative than dominating. I went with Ryan Vogelsong in the 20th and Vance Worley in the 23rd round. A tip from a very good facilitator landed me Juan Nicasio in the 25th round. I took a shot at Danny Duffy in the 28th as a reserve pick.

Okay, so how did I do with the SPs? I'm interested in your thoughts. Thanks all.

seeing that you ended up with Price and Bumgarner as well, maybe another hitter there would have been prudent. still, Kershaw, Price and Bumgarner is a helluva start. i might have leaned Beltre, but you ended up with Aramis anyways. i'd like to beat you up:P but i think you did alright for yourself. Shawn must have been there to guide you:P

Closers. I hate closers. I waited too long on closers. I didn't want to do that.

So I ended up with Drew Storen in Round 10 and Huston Street in Round 14. I didn't mind Storen, but I waited too long on a second closer and had to settle for injury-prone Huston Street. I then took a chance on Addison Reed in Round 21. I had no idea if it was a good pick or not, but I felt the upside of having a potential third closer made sense in a 13-team league. And teams change closers all the time and Reed has the potential to get saves at some point in the season. Plus, I can always plug in a 7th SP if Reed starts out as a setup man. It was a bit of a gamble, but with this group I didn't think Reed would last much longer and I just chose to dive in. The fact that there wasn't any sticker for him didn't make me feel any better, but the pick was made.

Thoughts on my relief corps? Did I make a mistake with Reed? What do you guys think of Street and Reed?

NorCalAtlFan wrote:seeing that you ended up with Price and Bumgarner as well, maybe another hitter there would have been prudent. still, Kershaw, Price and Bumgarner is a helluva start. i might have leaned Beltre, but you ended up with Aramis anyways. i'd like to beat you up:P but i think you did alright for yourself. Shawn must have been there to guide you:P

That's about the nicest compliment you've given me Brian since Fanball got involved with the NFBC!! Now back with STATS, we're both feeling good about life again, right? Shawn wasn't there, but I think he would have approved of my pitching staff. He will be with me in Phoenix in early March for the LABR AL and NL Auctions and we'll see how the two of us perform this time around. Should be fun again.

Okay, I'll move on from my team soon because I know I don't have enough offense compared to the other owners who stuck with offense when I was chasing more Ks. But here's a few areas:

Catchers: Didn't get killed with low average guys and even have some upside by nabbing Salvador Perez as my No. 3 catcher. So Wilson Ramos, Carlos Ruiz and Perez here. Satisfied.

Speed: I kept chasing it and in the end it hurt my power numbers: Crawford (before wrist injury), Erick Aybar, Emilio Bonifacio, Alex Gordon, Jeff Francouer, Alex Presley in reserve. I might be able to piece-meal 160-170 steals out of this group, but obviously I thought Crawford would be a bigger part of that before the injury.

Power: Miggy 30+, Aramis Ramirez 25+, maybe Carlos Quentin 25+, followed by a few in the 20s: Freddie Freeman, Hunter Pence, Alex Gordon, Jeff Francouer. I also went young with guys like Lonnie Chisenhall in reserve, Nolan Arenado in reserve, Freddie Freeman, J.D. Martinez, Duffy, Nicasio. We'll see how it pans out, but I really like the upside of some of these guys.

Okay, thoughts? C'mon, I need areas to concentrate on for the first FAAB period.

I really didn't look at Todd's team during the draft because he was on the other side of the room from me. Let's look at his picks:

1. Jacoby Ellsbury
2. Ian Kinsler
3. Mike Napoli
4. Kevin Youkilis
5. Cole Hamels
6. Matt Cain
7. Michael Cuddyer
8. Miguel Montero
9. Matt Moore
10. Jhonny Peralta
11. Nick Swisher
12. Ryan Madson
13. Coco Crisp
14. Gaby Sanchez
15. Kyle Farnsworth
16. Justin Masterson
17. Brandon McCarthy
18. Chris Sale
19. Dayan Viciedo
20. Ricky Nolasco
21. Jason Bartlett
22. Grant Balfour
23. Denard Span
24. Josh Reddick
25. Jonny Venters
26. Mike Carp
27. Brian Roberts
28. Danny Valencia
29. Brett Anderson

Good draft Todd. Getting Ellsbury with the 12th for a Red Sox die-hard had to be like Christmas Day for you. Kinsler is a nice wrapup pick followed by Napoli and another Red Sox (Youkilis). Do you really think he can play enough games this year to justify 41st overall? Just asking.

Hamels and Cain is a solid start at 5-6 and I was targeting Matt Moore as well. You got him in the 9th round. Madson and Farnsworth will get you plenty of saves. Good mix of power and speed.

Solid draft and late season possibilities with Brett Anderson and a few other reserve picks. Did you like this final product?

Okay, I'm jumping out. I'll pop back in, but take a look at the grid when you have time and if you have any comments or questions about the teams I'll gladly jump back in to discuss. I'm just looking for some baseball talk on a cold day. I'll be back when you guys are ready.

yeah, todd had a good draft it looks like. he can't quit youkilis though

Greg Ambrosius wrote:
Good draft Todd. Getting Ellsbury with the 12th for a Red Sox die-hard had to be like Christmas Day for you. Kinsler is a nice wrapup pick followed by Napoli and another Red Sox (Youkilis). Do you really think he can play enough games this year to justify 41st overall? Just asking.

Hamels and Cain is a solid start at 5-6 and I was targeting Matt Moore as well. You got him in the 9th round. Madson and Farnsworth will get you plenty of saves. Good mix of power and speed.

Solid draft and late season possibilities with Brett Anderson and a few other reserve picks. Did you like this final product?

Believe it or not, Youk was not my call, but of course I did not fight it.

The situation was we intended to take two starters at 4 and 5, but when we got to 4, we could tell by the flow of the draft that we could get the two of the guys we wanted at 4/5 or 5/6 - probably the same 2 guys. So I asked Lawr if there was a hitter he wanted in that spot and then wait for the arms. He wanted Youkilis. If we went 4-Hamels, 5-Cain, 6-Youkilis, no one would even question it.

The question is, as Greg alluded to, is there a better hitter we could have taken? Not many are concerned about the drop in average, just the penchant for missing time.

I'll give Doughy time to leave and grab some Doritos, it's time for some value talk.

My numbers have Youk ranked about 64th overall. In a 13-team draft, that's end of round 5, so by that, we were a round "early".

I have him with only 472 AB, so there is very reasonable injury time factored in.

The thing is, if he us hurt,we get some stats in his place, so that 64th overall is actually better when the additional stats are factored in, justifying the earlier round.

And finally, we were told by at least 2 other owners that we would not have seen Youk in the 5th if we waited.

This still does not answer if there were a better option, just that Youkilis in a vacuum can be justified at that spot.

Someone from my site was a bit surprised we did not go Nelson Cruz at that spot.

ToddZ wrote:

Greg Ambrosius wrote:
Good draft Todd. Getting Ellsbury with the 12th for a Red Sox die-hard had to be like Christmas Day for you. Kinsler is a nice wrapup pick followed by Napoli and another Red Sox (Youkilis). Do you really think he can play enough games this year to justify 41st overall? Just asking.

Hamels and Cain is a solid start at 5-6 and I was targeting Matt Moore as well. You got him in the 9th round. Madson and Farnsworth will get you plenty of saves. Good mix of power and speed.

Solid draft and late season possibilities with Brett Anderson and a few other reserve picks. Did you like this final product?

Someone from my site was a bit surprised we did not go Nelson Cruz at that spot.

Good explanation Todd. Tell Lawr I would have gone with Nelson Cruz. I'll probably be proven wrong, but I too was shocked that Cruz not only got past you but made it all the way to 4.8. I took Pence at 4.9 as I thought he dropped further than expected. All interesting and you take who you like, right? Time will tell if we were right.

Do you think pitching going this much later is an anomaly of this 13 team league? If so do you think the NFBC XII will be similar or more like a 15 team league where it flies off the board sooner? Love the ADPs on our team page but later on will be recieving any ADP's from 12 team leagues? The difference seems to maybe be significant. TKS

uncle charlie wrote:Do you think pitching going this much later is an anomaly of this 13 team league? If so do you think the NFBC XII will be similar or more like a 15 team league where it flies off the board sooner? Love the ADPs on our team page but later on will be recieving any ADP's from 12 team leagues? The difference seems to maybe be significant. TKS

This is a very good question. I do believe this is going to be more like our 12-team leagues than 15-team leagues. A stud ace in the 15-team leagues is slightly more valuable because those No. 1's are going to be much, much better than the 14th and 15th starters going to other teams. I do believe our 12-teamers will be more like this, but even to me it seemed like people were holding off on pitching too much. Yes, there were still a lot of good starters later on, but heck there were still some good bats later on too.

Last year I believe we were able to split off 15-team and 12-team ADPs and I'll ask if we can do that again. Seems reasonable. I will also ask about some period ADPs to maybe eliminate some of these earlier drafts once we get into February and March. Then those later drafts will show up on separate ADPs that don't include injured guys like Victor Martinez. We'll see, but it sounds possible.

uncle charlie wrote:Do you think pitching going this much later is an anomaly of this 13 team league? If so do you think the NFBC XII will be similar or more like a 15 team league where it flies off the board sooner? Love the ADPs on our team page but later on will be recieving any ADP's from 12 team leagues? The difference seems to maybe be significant. TKS

I say this as a compliment -- I would not use any other draft as a guideline for NFBC tendencies. The NFBC has generated its own drafting culture and will be different than what you see elsewhere. I think you will see a similar ADP in The XII, but obviously pick 60 in the classic is last in the 4th but last in the 5th for The XII.

That said, the "expert mentality" is still to wait on pitching.

I am doing a mock now with some mlb.com disciples. I can pretty much guarantee closers will go sooner than the NFBC ADP. That is the culture of the mlb.com community.